The hottest Mortgages Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investments Banking Mortgages Debt Economics
  1. Mortgage originations are showing different credit scores now compared to the bubble years from 2003 to 2006. This means people with lower credit scores are getting mortgages now.
  2. Delinquencies on mortgages are increasing, which means more people are having trouble making their payments on time.
  3. Foreclosures are still low, which is good news as it suggests that despite the rising delinquencies, people are not losing their homes at a high rate.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgages Economic Trends Credit Risk
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased slightly in December, indicating more homeowners are struggling to keep up with mortgage payments.
  2. Fannie Mae's delinquency rate rose to 0.56% while Freddie Mac's went up to 0.59%, both of which are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Older loans from before 2009 show higher serious delinquency, whereas more recent loans are performing better, but there are still some lingering issues from past housing bubble years.

Follow-Up: Mortgages by Credit Score

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgages Credit Scores Housing Market
  1. The average down payment for mortgages has stayed about the same since 1996, showing that lending standards haven’t changed as much as some people think.
  2. Home values and lending practices dramatically shifted between 2007 and 2009, leading to a decline in the quality of new mortgages, which affected the overall housing market.
  3. The decline in home values wasn't just a sudden crisis but a long-term issue influenced by lending practices and market perceptions, resulting in many areas experiencing just steady downturns without previous booms.

Renters and the mortgage crackdown aftermath

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgages Economic Trends
  1. Renters suffered a lot from stricter mortgage rules after 2008. Many renters ended up paying more due to fewer homes being built.
  2. There is a big difference in rent prices between rental apartments and owned homes. Renters often find they're spending more for less quality compared to homeowners.
  3. To fix these problems, we need either a lot more new rental buildings or easier access to mortgages for families. If not, many will keep struggling in high-priced rental markets.

Mortgages Outstanding by Credit Score

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgages Credit Scores Homeownership Real Estate Economic Trends
  1. After 2008, the number of mortgages given to people with lower credit scores dropped significantly compared to those with higher scores. This changed the lending landscape quite a bit.
  2. High real estate prices are affecting mortgage access more than the other way around. Many lower credit score borrowers are struggling to get mortgages, leading to higher rents and home prices.
  3. The tightening of lending rules since 2008 has made it harder for many people to become homeowners, leading to a market where only certain buyers can take advantage of low interest rates and good prices.
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Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Delinquencies
  1. We won't see a big increase in foreclosures like before. Most homeowners have good equity and stable mortgages, which helps them avoid financial struggles.
  2. The number of properties owned by lenders remains low, indicating that fewer people are losing their homes. This is a good sign compared to past economic downturns.
  3. Delinquency rates are decreasing, and most homeowners are able to keep up with payments. Even those in trouble can often find solutions to stay in their homes.

Credit Crunch Tsunami Hits Land

cryptoeconomy • 668 implied HN points • 22 Apr 23
💰 Finance Loans Mortgages
  1. Credit crunch is hitting various sectors like car loans, housing, and business loans.
  2. Banks are cutting off car loans due to difficulty in getting buyers approved, affecting dealers.
  3. Mortgages are in a critical state with plunging applications, high debt ratios, and increasing defaults.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Equity Housing Market Debt Management
  1. Homeowners are extracting less equity from their homes compared to the past, which is a positive sign for the housing market stability.
  2. Despite a slight rise in negative equity, most homeowners still have significant equity in their homes, which helps buffer against market downturns.
  3. Mortgage debt is rising, but it remains a lower percentage of GDP compared to the peak during the housing bubble, indicating healthier borrowing practices.

NY Fed: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Banking Mortgages Credit Economics Debt
  1. Mortgage originations are showing different trends based on credit scores compared to the years before the housing bubble. This means people's borrowing habits and qualifications might have changed significantly.
  2. Delinquencies on mortgages are increasing, which suggests that more people might be having trouble making their payments lately.
  3. Foreclosures are still low, meaning that even though some people are struggling to pay, many still manage to keep their homes and avoid losing them.

Why is Debt-to-Income high?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mortgages Debt Housing Market
  1. The debt-to-income (DTI) ratio for households has generally declined since 2007, focusing more on new mortgage borrowers than all families.
  2. Debt payments have increased for older families since lending standards tightened in 2008, delaying when families take on mortgage debt.
  3. Higher rent inflation due to a lack of construction has pushed up mortgage costs in the early years, contributing to high DTIs.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Inventory Mortgages
  1. The current housing market inventory is increasing year-over-year but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 11.3% year-over-year in February according to the Realtor.com report, showing a positive trend.
  3. Factors like the '3 D’s' (Death, Divorce, Disease), unemployment, and financial considerations affect homeowners' decisions to sell their homes, impacting market dynamics.

Scholarship on the Mortgage Moral Panic

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
💰 Finance Housing Market Regulations Mortgages Homeownership
  1. Regulatory changes post-Great Recession have made small dollar loans less available, leading to high denial rates
  2. Mortgage standards can create barriers, pushing buyers towards riskier agreements and impacting property prices
  3. Competition from all-cash buyers is high for small dollar homes, affecting mortgage approval rates and market dynamics

Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Equity Rates
  1. Most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes, which helps prevent a surge in foreclosures that could impact house prices.
  2. The distribution of interest rates on mortgages shows that a large percentage are under 4%, making it easier for homeowners to manage financially.
  3. Understanding key housing terms like forbearance, delinquency, foreclosure, and REO (Real Estate Owned) can help navigate discussions about property ownership.

Why are homebuilder rate buydowns effective?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Interest Rates Market Analysis
  1. Market prices aren't changing due to temporary factors, leading builders to use rate buydowns instead.
  2. Builders are using rate buydowns to close the gap between mortgage rates and other interest rates in the current market.
  3. The unique market conditions make rate buydowns a strategic tool for builders, influencing the mortgage market stability.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: "First-Time Homebuyers Make Up Record 47% of GSE Purchase Loans"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mortgages Delinquencies
  1. First-time homebuyers constituted a significant portion of GSE purchase loans in 2023, reaching a record 47%, the highest in at least a decade.
  2. Mortgage originations in 2023 hit a 30-year low, with a heavy focus on purchase transactions, while refinance lending showed potential for growth if rates decrease.
  3. In January, mortgage delinquencies dropped to 3.38%, the lowest level since October, indicating a positive trend below pre-pandemic levels.

The Parable of Angelo Mozilo

Net Interest • 22 implied HN points • 21 Jul 23
💰 Finance Banking Mortgages Financial Crisis Insider trading
  1. Angelo Mozilo was a key figure in the mortgage industry, starting Countrywide Financial and seeing its rise and fall.
  2. Countrywide's shift towards subprime lending led to risky practices, with Mozilo's ambition for growth overriding concerns about risk.
  3. Despite the financial crisis fallout, Mozilo personally profited from insider trading but faced legal repercussions, highlighting the recurring issue of trading risk for growth in financial services.

Housing affordability around the globe and what really helps

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Affordability Mortgages Government intervention Real Estate
  1. Data shows housing affordability has increased in most countries post the 2008 financial crisis due to low mortgage interest rates.
  2. National averages say the UK isn't as bad in housing affordability as perceived, with countries like Australia and France in a tougher spot.
  3. Analysis suggests government intervention, like offering housing benefits and building new homes, can notably improve housing affordability.

The Bailout

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 25 Sep 08
💰 Finance Regulations Mortgages Securities Market Analysis
  1. The $700 billion price tag for the bailout might not be the final cost. If people pay their mortgages, the government could actually make money, but if not, it could be more expensive.
  2. It's important to buy the mortgage-backed securities at fair value. This means paying what they are actually worth, not just their face value, to make sure taxpayers get something in return.
  3. Blaming just the bankers for the crisis isn't fair. Many homeowners also benefitted from the housing boom, and we need a better regulatory system to handle risky assets more effectively.

Inflation is here

Rob Leclerc • 0 implied HN points • 13 Mar 21
💰 Finance Inflation Economic Impact Mortgages Interest Rates
  1. Inflation is a looming crisis, with unseen impacts in traditional measures like CPI, causing economic and social turmoil.
  2. Low mortgage rates are fueling a housing market frenzy, with limited supply driving prices sky-high, putting pressure on buyers and sellers.
  3. Potential consequences include prolonged generational effects, hyperinflation risks, and exacerbation of wealth inequality between different age groups.