CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 234 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
- National home prices barely rose in 2025, with the Case‑Shiller National index up just 1.3% year‑over‑year and the weakest full‑year gain since 2011.
- There is wide geographic divergence: Midwest and Northeast cities (like Chicago and New York) saw gains while many Sun Belt markets (Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, Miami) posted declines.
- The year split into two halves — modest gains in the first half were followed by nominal declines in the back half, and inflation outpaced price gains from June onward, eroding real home values.