The hottest Trend Analysis Substack posts right now

2025 was a fairly typical year for global tropical cyclone landfalls, with 19 landfalls worldwide and 7 of those being major hurricanes.
Long-term records (1970–2025) show no clear upward trend in global landfall frequency, though the proportion of landfalls that are major storms has increased and may be part of natural multi-decadal variability.
Historical cyclone data are heterogeneous and observation changes make trend detection and attribution difficult. As a result, confidence in long-term trends is low and a clear human-caused signal in landfall frequency or economic losses may not be detectable for decades.

NEPA compliance is costly and time-consuming, with reports taking over 5 years to complete.
The FAST Act of 2015 led to significant decreases in the time to complete environmental impact statements.
Though NEPA timelines have shown improvement since 2016, the impact of the FAST Act reforms on the true burden of environmental reviews remains uncertain.

Gun sales in the US appear to be falling nationally.
There have been reactionary surges in gun sales due to external events.
Some states, like Iowa and North Carolina, saw a surge in gun sales tied to legal changes.

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'Vibe shift' often acts like a trend in the stock market, where people want to align politically or culturally with what's popular at the moment.
Media and leaders sometimes push specific vibes as a way to validate their actions, regardless of potential negative effects.
It's important to think critically about these changes instead of just going along with them; we should question why and how these cultural shifts are happening.

Murder rates in America are falling, but mass shootings are not following the same trend.
Gun violence in America is decreasing slowly, but mass shootings are still persistently high.
While shootings overall are declining, the proportion of mass shootings with 4 or more victims is increasing.

Forecasting the future involves arranging knowns and unknowns in smart ways.
Professional futurists provide multiple forecasts and help plan for different scenarios.
To predict the future, identify major trends, critical variables, and generate structured scenarios.