The hottest Crime Trends Substack posts right now

People often complain about “crime” when they really mean visible disorder like litter, graffiti, shoplifting, tent encampments, and loud boom boxes, and that conflation helps explain why many feel crime is getting worse even though overall crime is low.
The hard data are mixed and locally varied: litter seems down, graffiti is unclear, shoplifting is modestly higher than its lows but below 1990s levels, and homelessness and encampments rose around 2020 but are hard to measure consistently.
There are several reasons people might perceive a rise in disorder — a 2020 bump, comparing today to an unusually peaceful mid-20th-century low, or simply different historical kinds of squalor — so it’s more useful to focus on specific, local evidence than on blanket claims that society is collapsing.

Men tend to seek out intense pleasures more than women. This includes things like sports, music, and substance use, which can lead to higher addiction rates in men.
In New York City, subway murders have nearly quadrupled since 2020, despite fewer people riding. This shows that safety risks might be rising even though overall crime might seem lower.
Wisdom can be developed through various factors like mental health, creativity, and learning from life experiences. Having good mentors and being open to new experiences can also help.

The internet has made it easy for people to manipulate emotions and create controversies that attract attention. This feedback loop encourages risky and dangerous behavior.
Some individuals use victim narratives to gain sympathy and justify harmful actions. This can draw in others who are susceptible to these sob stories, often ignoring real consequences.
Online discussions often lack empathy because they are just text without face-to-face interaction. This can lead to extreme polarization as people react strongly to opposing views.

Murder rates in America are falling, but mass shootings are not following the same trend.
Gun violence in America is decreasing slowly, but mass shootings are still persistently high.
While shootings overall are declining, the proportion of mass shootings with 4 or more victims is increasing.

Auto thefts rising might be causing a decline in carjackings.
Stealing cars is easier and less risky than carjacking.
Available data indicates a potential trend of falling carjackings, but more data is needed for a conclusive answer.

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Traffic stops in New Orleans dropped significantly after the 2019 cyber attack due to various factors like COVID shutdown and police attrition.
Improved medical care at University Medical Center in New Orleans may have impacted the fatality rate of shooting incidents.
Data on juvenile crime, especially in vehicle-based crimes, is challenging to measure accurately due to reliance on arrests.

Different narratives about crime can both be true and indicate complex issues in the criminal justice system.
The increase in average prison sentence length contributes to prison overcrowding despite fewer people being charged with crimes.
Austerity measures have disproportionately affected vulnerable services, creating a ripple effect of challenges across public services.

Frequent occurrence: This shooting is 70th gun-related incident at a K-12 school this year and the 5th 'active shooter' incident of 2019.
Quick response: Police, Fire, and EMS arrived at the scene within 2 minutes of the shooting, demonstrating effective emergency response.
Security challenges: School campus layout affects lockdown procedures; the shooter being a student poses security challenges due to their familiarity with the campus.