Maximum Progress

Maximum Progress by Max Tabarrok focuses on exploring economics, mathematics, philosophy, and societal progress through the lenses of governmental policy, technological advancements, the impact of regulations like the FDA, and philosophical concepts like stoicism. It delves into specific case studies such as land reclamation, the role of AI, and the economic implications of fertility and research investments.

Economics Mathematics Philosophy Technological Progress Government Policy Healthcare Regulation Artificial Intelligence Environmental Policy Scientific Research Cultural Commentary

The hottest Substack posts of Maximum Progress

And their main takeaways

Practicing my Handwriting in 1439

432 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Future Predictions Artificial Intelligence
  1. AI may disrupt high status jobs like writing and make skills like writing less valuable in the future.
  2. AI has been a complement to knowledge work so far, improving productivity in tasks such as software development and consulting.
  3. Even if AI enhances productivity, it may still be challenging for humans to compete in certain areas where AI excels, leading to uncertainty about the future of specific skills.

Against the Burden of Knowledge

294 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
🔬 Science Research Innovation
  1. The burden of knowledge suggests that finding new ideas gets harder because you have to spend more time learning old ones.
  2. Knowledge is not always cumulative in scientific progress, as seen in historical examples like the transition from Ptolemy's geocentric model to Copernicus' heliocentric model.
  3. Institutional decay in academia may be a more plausible explanation for aging researchers, larger teams, and narrower fields, rather than just the burden of knowledge.

Rabat, Morocco

255 implied HN points • 03 Jan 24
🏝 Travel Destinations Culture Food
  1. Rabat is safe and clean with workers collecting trash early in the morning.
  2. The tourism industry in Rabat is entrepreneurial but not pushy.
  3. Restaurants in the medina have nice atmospheres but are expensive, with better food away from the heavily touristed areas.
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Something Is Getting Harder But It's Not Finding Ideas

569 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
🔬 Science Research Economic Growth Technology Data Analysis Innovation
  1. Research investments are growing but economic growth remains constant, implying declining returns on research investment over time.
  2. The metaphor of a car's acceleration and fuel use helps explain the idea that as we discover more ideas, finding new ones becomes harder.
  3. The debate on whether ideas are getting harder to find is important, but more evidence is needed to draw a definitive conclusion.

A Puzzle in Voter Behavior

117 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior Immigration
  1. Old republicans' anti-immigration sentiment challenges traditional theories of voter behavior based on self-interest.
  2. Voting decisions are not solely based on self-interest, but also influenced by factors like emotional benefits and group identity.
  3. Understanding voter behavior includes concepts like rational ignorance and rational irrationality, which account for limited impact of individual votes on election outcomes.

The Offense-Defense Balance Rarely Changes

294 implied HN points • 06 Dec 23
🕹 Technology AI Cybersecurity AI Impact
  1. The offense-defense balance in technology, like cybersecurity, has remained stable despite technological advancements.
  2. Historical evidence shows that major technological revolutions have not significantly shifted the offense-defense balance.
  3. The distinction between attackers and defenders is not always clear in practice, impacting the balance of power in offense and defense.

Fertility as Metascience

334 implied HN points • 22 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Population Growth
  1. Increasing population growth is crucial for economic and technological progress
  2. People have increasing returns and can drive economic growth by sharing ideas
  3. Population growth is fundamental for economic growth and technological progress based on empirical evidence

Spatial vs Temporal Externalities

412 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
💼 Business Government intervention Externalities Debt Climate change
  1. Government intervention is effective in correcting externalities because it has a stake in the outcome.
  2. Governments struggle to address long-term externalities because they focus on short-term goals and lack incentives for future outcomes.
  3. Markets can incentivize individuals to consider future consequences, making them potentially more effective than governments in addressing temporal externalities.

Why Did NEPA Peak in 2016?

235 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Policy Changes Trend Analysis
  1. NEPA compliance is costly and time-consuming, with reports taking over 5 years to complete.
  2. The FAST Act of 2015 led to significant decreases in the time to complete environmental impact statements.
  3. Though NEPA timelines have shown improvement since 2016, the impact of the FAST Act reforms on the true burden of environmental reviews remains uncertain.

Time Off in Old Times

314 implied HN points • 26 Oct 23
💾 History Medieval Labor Quality of Life Industrial Revolution Leisure
  1. Medieval peasants had more time off due to frequent breaks, long holidays, and seasonal slow downs in paid farm labor.
  2. Comparing work hours between medieval and modern times may not be accurate as the nature of work and leisure is different.
  3. Historia Civilis' analysis overlooks the harsh realities of medieval life, including torture by landlords and mandatory household chores.

How to Imbue the Basic Models of Biology With a Positive Vision of the Future

196 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23
🔬 Science Biology Ecology Economics Evolution
  1. Basic biological models suggest a narrative of exponential growth followed by collapse.
  2. Biology offers a positive vision of the future through sustainable population growth without new resources, like Rubisco enzyme evolution.
  3. Evolutionary innovations, such as the human brain, enable sustainable growth and prosperity, creating a bridge between ecological and economic perspectives.

Grading Extropian Predictions

373 implied HN points • 03 Jun 23
🔬 Science Predictions Technology Influences
  1. Extropians are a group of influential futurists with high-profile members.
  2. Extropians made predictions with mixed accuracy, often being overly optimistic.
  3. Some Extropian predictions showed potential for accuracy, but overall their optimism sometimes led to incorrect forecasts.

How Did Natural Selection Get Around Alignment?

196 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
🔬 Science Evolution AI Alignment
  1. Humans can use incremental optimizations to train AI but changes in environment can lead to unpredictability in behavior.
  2. AI models can end up following heuristics that worked in training but are not aligned with the desired goal.
  3. Natural selection successfully deals with misalignment by constantly selecting and adapting organisms to new environments.

Does Cannabis Cause Schizophrenia?

137 implied HN points • 20 Nov 22
  1. Cannabis use does not appear to cause schizophrenia based on research findings.
  2. Legalization of cannabis leads to increased use, but does not significantly impact schizophrenia rates.
  3. Research suggests that there may be data limitations in studying the relationship between cannabis use and schizophrenia, requiring further investigation.

How Many People Are In The Invisible Graveyard?

98 implied HN points • 12 Apr 22
  1. Vaccines can save more lives when rolled out earlier.
  2. Accelerating vaccine approval and rollout could have saved hundreds of thousands of lives during the Covid-19 pandemic.
  3. Preparation, including building an arsenal of vaccines and delivery mechanisms, can be key in mitigating the impact of future pandemics.

Can Growth Solve The Public Goods Problem?

39 implied HN points • 30 Jan 22
  1. Technological and economic growth can help alleviate the public goods problem by reducing intense pressures.
  2. Successful interest groups in providing public goods tend to have dominant stakeholders with personal benefits exceeding costs.
  3. Increasing incomes and productivity can lead to more efficient private provision of public goods without state intervention.

Mathematics In The Neolithic Revolution

19 implied HN points • 21 Mar 22
  1. The Neolithic Revolution marked a crucial transition for humanity, leading to progress through investing in productivity-enhancing technologies.
  2. The development of mathematics played a vital role in the Neolithic Revolution, particularly in managing surplus, enabling trade, and understanding time.
  3. Mathematics was essential for the transition to agriculture, highlighting its significance in human progress.

Progress Studies in Mathematics

19 implied HN points • 10 Mar 22
  1. Progress in mathematics is crucial for scientific and technological advancements in various fields.
  2. Measuring progress in math can be done through aspects like the number of researchers, papers published, and problem solving capabilities.
  3. Mathematics impacts society significantly as knowledge trickles down, advances computation, and underpins technological advancements.

Patents vs Prizes

19 implied HN points • 14 Nov 21
  1. One-to-n improvements are crucial for linking technological discovery to human welfare impacts.
  2. Ideas are infinitely copy-able, unlike physical goods.
  3. Prizes can incentivize invention without the costs and restrictions of patents.

Google's 21st Century Corporate Research Lab

19 implied HN points • 22 Aug 21
  1. In the 20th century, major inventions came from corporate research labs of large American companies like IBM and Bell Labs.
  2. Today, large corporations like Google, Amazon, and Tesla are leading research in technologies such as AI, quantum computing, and bio-tech.
  3. Future technologies like quantum computing, bio-tech, and machine learning have the potential to be as impactful as previous inventions, driving economic growth and innovation.

Stoicism is not a Philosophy

19 implied HN points • 10 Jan 21
  1. Stoicism is not a traditional philosophy but a personal practice.
  2. Stoicism focuses on daily practice, not just reading and understanding.
  3. Stoicism encourages accepting what is within your control and letting go of what is not.

Re: Crypto for People Who Don't Follow Crypto

0 implied HN points • 16 Jul 21
  1. Blockchain technology will disrupt content creation and distribution by eliminating the need for copyright restrictions.
  2. Decreased production costs and blockchain hosting enable creators to monetize content in new ways, like through direct support from fans.
  3. Blockchain content hosting allows for proven exclusivity and originality, transforming how art and digital content are valued.

The AI Apocalypse Is Coming

0 implied HN points • 09 Jul 21
  1. AI will replace many human jobs with its speed and accuracy in tasks like data processing and reading text.
  2. Even when AI can do everything faster and better, mutual gains from specialization and trade will still benefit both AI and humans.
  3. Comparative advantage ensures mutual profitability in human-AI partnerships, even when AI is significantly better at all tasks.

Re: Founding vs Inheriting

0 implied HN points • 26 May 21
  1. Institutions run by founders have advantages like the ability to reinvent themselves in times of crisis.
  2. Integrating founders in government can be done through private cities, new frontiers, and crowd choice bargaining.
  3. Coordination is key in founding new cities or communities, and dominant assurance contracts can help bridge this gap.

Stubborn Attachments From Behind The Veil

0 implied HN points • 09 Dec 21
  1. The Veil of Ignorance separates a person from their particular characteristics, forcing decision makers to consider universal costs and benefits of a social contract.
  2. The maximin decision rule focuses on making the worst case scenario as good as possible, influencing Rawls' principles of justice for advocating democratic socialism.
  3. Maximizing expected utility with minimum constraints is a more rational decision rule, leading decision makers to prioritize economic growth as a guiding principle of justice for society.

The Printing Press, NFTs, and the End of Copyright

0 implied HN points • 26 Feb 21
  1. The printing press revolutionized information sharing in Europe by allowing easy reproducibility of books without copyright laws.
  2. Copyright monopolies actually restricted output of new publications and increased prices, making books inaccessible to most people.
  3. NFTs offer a new way for digital artists to sell their work directly to consumers, cutting out the traditional copyright protection industry.

Intergenerational Mobility Part II

0 implied HN points • 23 May 21
  1. Absolute intergenerational mobility in the US remains strong, with many children exceeding their parents' income levels.
  2. Relative intergenerational mobility in the US is lower compared to peer nations, especially within the bottom income quintile.
  3. Improving geographic mobility by addressing housing regulations can enhance intergenerational mobility and economic growth.

Intergenerational Mobility Part I

0 implied HN points • 06 May 21
  1. Intergenerational mobility is crucial for understanding and addressing economic inequality.
  2. There are differences in levels of relative and absolute intergenerational mobility in the US that impact society and economic efficiency.
  3. Compared to other developed nations, the US has lower relative intergenerational mobility, particularly in the bottom quintile, highlighting challenges in economic opportunities.

The Mauritius Miracle

0 implied HN points • 12 Feb 21
  1. Mauritius transformed from a monocrop economy to a diversified, prosperous nation.
  2. The key to Mauritius' success was economic liberalization, stable governance, and a focus on labor advantage.
  3. The EPZ policy in Mauritius led to significant economic growth, reduced unemployment, and improved social indicators.

Olympic Charter Cities

0 implied HN points • 03 Aug 21
  1. Hosting the Olympics is costly and less popular, creating an opportunity for public-private partnership development of Olympic charter cities.
  2. Cost of hosting the Olympics is rising, leading to challenges in redeveloping Olympic construction projects post-games.
  3. Olympic charter cities offer an alternative funding model, potential for economic growth, and a more sustainable approach to organizing the Olympics.