The hottest Economic Trends Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Why the low multiple series: Rental Car companies edition, part 2

Yet Another Value Blog • 1631 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Companies Market Analysis Economic Trends Financial Strategy
  1. Rental car companies are currently trading at low multiples, making them a potentially cheap investment.
  2. Despite the persuasive bear case, the bull case for rental car companies includes aggressive capital returns to shareholders and potential for sustained earnings.
  3. Structural improvements in the rental car industry, such as consolidation and disciplined supply, could support profitability even if current high levels are not completely sustainable.

❄️ 📈 Meta et Apple, une bonne idée ? La fin de Google Search ?

Snowball • 727 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
💰 Finance Technology Market Analysis Company performance Investment Economic Trends
  1. Apple announces mixed quarterly results, with higher iPhone and wearables sales but lower revenues in China.
  2. ESG funds' popularity drops due to rising interest rates.
  3. Startups like Perplexity and Arc are reshaping internet search with artificial intelligence, possibly challenging Google's traditional method.

The Minneapolis Miracle

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Construction Economic Trends
  1. Minneapolis experienced a drop in rents in 2021 and 2022 but the correlation between housing construction and rent trends isn't conclusive. It's important to assess data carefully before drawing conclusions.
  2. Auckland, New Zealand, has visible rent decreases due to effective supply-side reforms, contrasting with Minneapolis where the impact of such reforms is less clear.
  3. The correlation between income, new home construction, and rent inflation post-Great Recession reveals unusual patterns, possibly influenced by mortgage suppression policies, highlighting the need for comprehensive data analysis.
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January 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Supply and Demand Inflation
  1. Rising rents are causing rising home prices in the US housing market, with a greater than 1:1 pace.
  2. Density of housing is crucial in impacting housing prices, especially in cities like New York City, where dense neighborhoods are affected by supply shortages and migration trends.
  3. The impact of COVID-19 on housing trends varies across cities, with some areas experiencing temporary relief in housing costs for dense neighborhoods while other cities like New York face complexities in supply conditions.

New Home Sales at 661,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Data Economic Trends Housing supply
  1. In January 2024, new home sales were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000, showing a positive trend compared to the previous year.
  2. The median new home price has dropped by 15% from its peak, indicating potential shifts in the real estate market.
  3. Inventory levels for new homes show variations, with completed homes for sale at a level close to the norm, while homes under construction are high but below previous peak levels.

Bear market or bull market? For Bitcoin it can be hard to tell.

Ecoinometrics • 275 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Inflation Housing Market Economic Trends
  1. It's difficult to determine if Bitcoin or Ethereum are in a bear or bull market by just looking at monthly returns.
  2. Countries with high inflation rates might benefit from transitioning to crypto-based monetary systems.
  3. There are signs indicating a potential crash in the US housing market due to factors like artificially inflated prices and high mortgage rates.

The Reading Unlock

SatPost by Trung Phan • 254 implied HN points • 23 Sep 23
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Investing Startups Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. Entrepreneurs like Joe Coulombe, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk were inspired by reading single articles to start successful ventures.
  2. Reading diverse and random content can help build a unique insight stack when combined with other skills.
  3. Reading and continuous learning are crucial for developing insights that lead to successful ventures or investments.

Consumption Pricing Models Are Here to Stay

Condensing the Cloud • 255 implied HN points • 16 Jun 23
💼 Business Finance Technology Startups Subscription Models Economic Trends
  1. Consumption pricing models are becoming more prevalent and are beneficial for software companies
  2. Consumption-based pricing aligns cost with value, promotes customer flexibility, and aids in quick scalability
  3. Monitoring key metrics like revenue, RPO, and gross margin is crucial for companies implementing consumption-based pricing models

The US labor market is much weaker than we have been told

Global Markets Investor • 7 HN points • 15 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends
  1. The US labor market is weaker than portrayed in headlines, with data revisions indicating lower job growth than initially reported.
  2. There has been a rise in part-time jobs and multiple jobholders, while full-time jobs have decreased, presenting a concerning trend for the US economy.
  3. Analysis of native vs foreign-born employment shows a significant difference, indicating that job creation in the US has been largely driven by immigrants in recent years.

Down but not out

Warden Capital • 196 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Market Analysis Economic Trends Risk Assessment
  1. Office REITs in NYC are currently undervalued due to fears of continued impact from work from home, but the market may be overestimating the potential decline in income.
  2. Historically, NYC office space has been a strong performer, particularly in top tier buildings near major transit centers.
  3. The current market is pricing in significant income declines for NYC office REITs, but factors like reduced supply growth and potential for office to residential conversions could help stabilize the market.

Scattered Thoughts on Employment and Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💼 Business Employment Construction Labor Market Economic Trends Housing Market
  1. Positive labor market reports with sustainable wage growth and projected real growth
  2. Residential construction employment is growing, productivity concerns, and insights on housing market functionality
  3. Analysis of employment flows provides insights into economic trends and potential indicators for labor market breakdown

The Fed Can't, And Won't, Nail The Dismount

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Trends
  1. Predicting market movements can be difficult, and it's important to acknowledge when predictions are not accurate.
  2. Even if past predictions have been off, it's necessary to stick to the underlying thesis and reasons for the forecasts.
  3. Quick excitement about economic factors like inflation or rate cuts may not always be warranted; it's important to take a more balanced perspective.

Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 2 HN points • 20 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends
  1. The number of single-family units built for rent almost doubled from 2020 to 2023, showing a significant increase in this housing trend.
  2. About 18% of the built-for-rent units started in 2023 were single-family units, highlighting a shift in the housing market.
  3. While single-family completions built for sale saw a decrease, completed units built for rent were up 21% year-over-year, potentially affecting rental market supply and rent prices.

The Venture Activity Index

Who is Nnamdi • 10 implied HN points • 25 Jul 23
💼 Business Venture Capital Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment Analysis
  1. The Venture Activity Index measures the state of the venture business cycle using the Venture Activity Index (VAI).
  2. Funding in the venture market is fluctuating around a linear trend with a consistent ~5% growth per quarter on average.
  3. Correlations across different stages of venture investment have increased since 2020, with later stages experiencing more volatility than seed and Series A stages.

Don't be fooled by Wall Street analysts

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 28 Dec 23
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Forecasting Financial Analysis Economic Trends
  1. Wall Street analysts have consistently missed S&P 500 year-end targets by an average of 15.7% from 2018 to 2023.
  2. It's hard for even the most renowned financial firms to predict exact stock market values, showing the importance of personal research.
  3. Despite sophisticated analysis, Wall Street analysts often get S&P 500 projections wrong, emphasizing the value of independent thinking in investment decisions.

Season 03 - Newsletter 06 --> Look back at 2023 and forward to 2024

Product Hustle Stack Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 29 Dec 23
💼 Business Product Management Consumer behavior Tech industry Economic Trends AI Integration
  1. Consumer behavior shifted in 2023 due to inflation and a balance between in-store and e-commerce shopping preferences.
  2. 2023 pivotal moments: FTX Crypto Exchange failure, tech industry layoffs, ChatGPT impact, Venture Capital Winter.
  3. Product management trends for 2024: focus on customer-centricity, data-driven decisions, collaboration tools evolution, and AI integration.