The hottest Economic Trends Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Building Mighty Small Businesses

Investing 101 • 110 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Venture Capital Small business Startups Economic Trends
  1. The American Dream means having the freedom to live as you wish, owning a home, getting an education, and starting a business. Many people still seek these goals, especially the chance to run their own business.
  2. Venture capital often pushes founders to aim for very large, unrealistic goals, which can lead to many startups failing. Most entrepreneurs should focus on building small, sustainable businesses instead.
  3. It's easier to start a small business today than ever before due to new tools and platforms. Don't feel pressured to chase after massive funding; instead, choose a path that fits your goals and lifestyle.

The Fed's Secret Confession: The Beige Book Reveals a Troubling US Economy

COVID Reason • 436 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends Market Analysis Central Banks Consumer behavior Global Economy
  1. The recent Beige Book shows that the U.S. economy is actually slowing down, not improving. Many regions reported economic decline, especially in manufacturing.
  2. There are rising concerns about job security and consumer spending. People are cutting back on spending due to financial worries and many companies are freezing hiring.
  3. Global economic issues are also affecting the U.S. market. Weak demand for products and looming recession signals are worrying for businesses and consumers alike.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 243 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Bond Market
  1. The money market is currently stable, with dealers holding more U.S. Treasuries. This might lead to more relaxed conditions in the market.
  2. Investors are not as worried about future issues with T-bills as they were during the previous debt ceiling crisis. This suggests a more confident market outlook.
  3. Upcoming auctions of longer-term bonds are expected to attract foreign investors, which could positively impact yields despite fears about rising rates.

Running on Empty

The Last Bear Standing • 32 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Banking Liquidity Interest Rates Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is mostly just moving money around rather than actually reducing the money supply. This means the impact on inflation might not be as significant as it seems.
  2. The Reverse Repo Facility, which helps maintain liquidity in financial markets, is running low. As it decreases, there could be less stability in short-term funding.
  3. While some people say the situation is either a disaster or not a problem at all, it's more complex. We might see tighter banking conditions and more market volatility as the Fed continues its quantitative tightening efforts.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 221 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investments Economic Trends Financial Policy Banking
  1. The money market is moving from a period of cash abundance to more careful funding conditions. This could affect how money flows in the next few months.
  2. A big change is expected once the debt limit is resolved, which could lead to a surge in bills. This might reduce the reserves banks have available.
  3. Foreign investors may be less interested in U.S. Treasury securities because other local bonds offer better returns. This could impact future U.S. debt sales.
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The internet is about to be reshuffled

Simon Owens's Media Newsletter • 673 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💼 Business Media industry Content creation Advertising Streaming services Economic Trends
  1. When TikTok shuts down, a lot of users might turn to other platforms instead. This could create big opportunities for content creators who need to act quickly to capture the new audience.
  2. Many media companies struggle to see the true value of their employees. Freelance creators are finding success on platforms like Substack, showing that they can earn more outside traditional jobs.
  3. Spotify's move into audiobooks has helped it attract new listeners and grow its business. This shift is seen as one of the smartest decisions among streaming services, providing more value to subscribers.

The Corporate Life Cycle: Managing, Valuation and Investing Implications

Musings on Markets • 1438 implied HN points • 20 Aug 24
💼 Business Corporate Finance Valuation Investment Strategies Management Economic Trends
  1. Businesses, like people, go through life cycles. They start as new ideas, grow, and eventually decline if not managed properly.
  2. Companies age differently, impacting their strategies and financial health. Younger companies often focus on growth, while older ones need to defend their position or manage decline.
  3. The skills and qualities needed in leadership change with a company's age. A startup needs a visionary leader, while a declining company may require a pragmatic approach to manage its downsizing.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. U.S. house prices rose about 4.5% over the past year, showing growth across all regions, but at a slower pace than before. This suggests the market is stabilizing after a period of rapid increases.
  2. The Case-Shiller index indicates that home prices have been increasing month-over-month consistently, with a 0.5% rise recently, even though some cities like San Francisco and Tampa are seeing price declines.
  3. Overall house prices are now higher than they were before the pandemic, but growth is less intense than during peak years, reflecting changes in demand and supply in the housing market.

Investing Update: A Look At My Portfolio

Spilled Coffee • 84 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Portfolio Management Market Analysis
  1. The stock market has been having a tough time lately, especially on Fridays, which have seen significant drops. It's important to pay attention to these patterns when investing.
  2. The Magnificent 7 stocks aren’t performing as well this year compared to last year, suggesting a shift in market dynamics. Other sectors might be starting to pick up the pace instead.
  3. The current bull market is still young, but it's showing strong returns. Statistically, bull markets that reach their third year tend to continue for quite a while, which could mean more growth ahead.

Top Links 626 The coming US labour market shock. Brazil and the bond vigilantes, China and the demand for gold & the triumph of cellular.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Labor Market Immigration Economic Trends Investment
  1. The US labor market is expected to face a significant shock soon. This means there might be big changes in job availability and employment rates.
  2. Brazil is experiencing challenges from bond vigilantes. These are investors who are cautious about government bonds and could influence Brazil's economy.
  3. China is seeing an increased demand for gold. This trend indicates shifts in how people are valuing money and investments in that country.

The Bear Cave #255

The Bear Cave • 676 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Corporate News Economic Trends Financial Analysis
  1. Hims & Hers Health could be in trouble if the FDA removes its shortage label on semaglutide, which would stop them from selling compounded versions of the drug.
  2. Recent reports revealed Carvana's questionable dealings related to $800 million in loan sales and a possible SEC investigation, leading to a significant drop in their stock.
  3. There have been several high-profile executive resignations recently, indicating potential instability in companies like Integral Ad Science and Aurora Innovation.

First Rate Cut + Q&A

DeFi Education • 779 implied HN points • 23 Aug 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Labor Market Interest Rates Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve is making changes to its policies, indicating the economy is shifting. This could affect things like interest rates and inflation.
  2. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that they don’t want the economy to cool down too much. This suggests they are looking for a balance between growth and stability.
  3. There is a focus on the labor market and inflation, which are key indicators for the economy. These factors will influence future decisions from the Federal Reserve.

Why True Friendship is Built on Unconditional Kindness

The Profile • 277 implied HN points • 06 Oct 24
💼 Business Leadership Entrepreneurship Corporate strategy Work Culture Economic Trends
  1. Kindness can make a big difference in someone's life. Small acts of kindness can create lasting memories and connections.
  2. People often remember those who showed them genuine kindness over time. It's those warm moments that stand out in our hearts.
  3. Choosing kindness in tough situations is rare but important. It can help people feel seen and supported when they need it the most.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 281 implied HN points • 20 May 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Monetary Policy Financial Education
  1. Cash is flowing back into the money markets, leading to calmer conditions. This means there's plenty of cash available, which is a good sign.
  2. The recent panel discussions revealed that issues in the market were influenced by trade tariffs and how they affected different types of financial trades. Understanding these factors can help make better investment decisions.
  3. Despite some panic over the Moody's downgrade, experts believe it's not a big deal and the U.S. Treasuries are still a safe bet. Overall, it's a stable time to consider investing in Treasuries.

Top Links 625 Decomposing economic surprise. When threats work and when they don't. Is quantum the new AI? And the Secret Leviathan.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Strategies Global Economics Data Analytics
  1. The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index for the US shows how unexpected events in the economy can change predictions. It's important to pay attention to these surprises to get a better understanding of the current economic climate.
  2. Understanding when threats are effective or not can help in managing situations better. Knowing the right time to take action can make a big difference in outcomes.
  3. Quantum technology is being compared to AI as a new frontier in innovation. It's exciting to think about how these technologies might change our future.

Canton Follow-Up Post

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban planning Economic Trends Zoning Laws Social Issues
  1. Canton is facing a serious housing issue, with a big decline in new single-family homes being built. This drop is linked to strict zoning laws that make it difficult for families to create more housing options.
  2. Rents in Canton have grown faster than inflation, which is making it hard for residents. Even though buying a home could be cheaper than renting, many people can't get mortgages due to those same zoning restrictions.
  3. The U.S. has a widespread housing crisis, not just in wealthy areas like New York City but everywhere. If cities make it easier to build new homes, they could become more affordable again.

Top Links 619 The payments presidency. The coming rupee shock. Musk’s space juggernaut. Saffron in polycrisis.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Payment Systems Fintech Cryptocurrency Economic Trends Global Markets
  1. There's a focus on how fintech and payments are shaping politics, especially relating to Trump's presidency. It's interesting to see money technology playing such a big role in politics.
  2. India is facing potential challenges with its currency, the rupee, which could create economic shockwaves. People should keep an eye on how this may affect the global economy.
  3. Musk's ventures in space are being discussed, highlighting the impact of private companies on space exploration. It's exciting to see how the future of space travel is changing because of new technologies.

January 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Employment Market Analysis
  1. Residential construction jobs are not increasing much and have been stable. This suggests a slow period for the construction industry.
  2. The number of new construction starts was lower this month, indicating potential challenges ahead for the housing market.
  3. Despite issues in construction, there's a lot of political noise happening, which makes the calm in construction seem strange.

My uncle got rich in the dot com bubble

Taylor Lorenz's Newsletter • 3791 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Tech History Internet culture Personal narratives Economic Trends
  1. The dot-com bubble created a frenzy of investment in tech companies, making many people, like Uncle Paul, very wealthy. This time saw the rise of big names like Amazon and eBay, which changed how we shop.
  2. The excitement of the early internet promised a bright future where anyone could succeed, but the reality was that only a few became rich. Most people couldn't keep up with the fast changes and competition.
  3. The aftermath of the dot-com bubble led to many losses and a stark realization: wealth isn't guaranteed for everyone. Technology reshaped society, but it also introduced new issues like homelessness and inequality in places like California.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Market Analysis
  1. In January, housing starts dropped to 1.366 million, which is lower than both December's figures and January 2024's. This shows a ongoing decrease in new housing construction.
  2. Single-family home construction decreased by 8.4% compared to December, which indicates a slowdown in this sector. Meanwhile, multi-family units saw a slight increase year-over-year but still faced declines month-over-month.
  3. There were significant differences in regional construction patterns, especially in the Northeast, which experienced a notable drop, likely due to weather conditions.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Analysis Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates but is now signaling that they may not do it quickly again. This can be seen as a bit disappointing for the markets.
  2. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, mentioned they are not in a hurry to make more rate cuts. This message is important for those watching the economy.
  3. Overall, it seems the Fed wants to stay cautious and not rush decisions that could impact the market.

The Bear Cave #252

The Bear Cave • 419 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate Governance Economic Trends
  1. There are new reports about companies experiencing accounting issues and bad loans. It's important to pay attention to these signs as they could lead to financial trouble.
  2. Many executives are resigning from their positions, which could indicate instability within those companies. If a company keeps changing leadership, it might be a bad sign for its future.
  3. Short sellers are becoming more vocal, and there are discussions about plans that could affect companies negatively. Watching how these short sellers act can give clues about company health.

Credit Where Credit Is Due: Nashville & Charlotte!

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. Nashville has a unique housing law that helps build affordable starter homes, making it a great place for newcomers. It's important to look at different regions when discussing housing costs.
  2. Charlotte also deserves recognition for managing housing prices better than expected. It's not just the well-known cities that have good housing policies.
  3. Overall, housing costs have risen in Nashville, Charlotte, and Austin over the years, but these cities still have relatively better conditions compared to others. Keeping an eye on varied areas can provide a fuller picture of the housing market.

January 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update and Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Inflation Economic Trends Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.

Investing Update: A Rotation Is Underway

Spilled Coffee • 68 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Stock Performance Economic Trends Sentiment Analysis
  1. All major stock indexes ended the week down, showing a shift in market sentiment. This can indicate a possible change in the current bull market.
  2. Despite the recent downturn, some key stocks like Nvidia are bouncing back, and the overall market remains strong as the S&P 500 is near its all-time high.
  3. Historically, February is known for being a tough month for stock performance, especially after Valentine’s Day, which could be a concern for investors.

Rent trends and multi-family construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Strategies Housing policy
  1. The rent trends in different cities show that Austin is currently performing the best among metro areas in Texas.
  2. When looking at rental prices, it's important to consider whether changes are due to short-term demand shifts or local supply issues.
  3. The Erdmann Housing Tracker provides insights into multi-family construction, which can help understanding the housing market better.

How to Spot a Star

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 2859 implied HN points • 06 Oct 24
💼 Business Talent Management Human Resources Staffing Economic Trends
  1. It's important to look beyond just education to spot talent. People can be talented even within the same educational background, and practice and perseverance often matter more than where you went to school.
  2. Personality traits, like conscientiousness, play a big role in success. Those who work hard and stay focused are more likely to succeed, especially in lower-skilled jobs.
  3. Asking unique questions in interviews can help identify true talent. For example, finding out what someone reads for fun can reveal their interests and drive more than traditional job history.

The Bear Cave #245

The Bear Cave • 653 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate News Regulatory issues Economic Trends
  1. New reports are raising serious concerns about several companies, including Hershey, which was found to have harmful chemicals in its products. This could impact its reputation and sales.
  2. Several high-profile executives have recently resigned from their positions at major companies, suggesting possible instability or issues within those organizations.
  3. There are calls for caution when it comes to tweeting about stocks, as public opinions and statements can significantly affect market perceptions and investments.

Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 337 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Urban Policy Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. High housing prices in cities don't mean they're great places to live. Instead, these prices often come from not having enough houses.
  2. Cities like Los Angeles are expensive mainly due to people wanting to stay near their families and jobs, even when it gets hard to afford living there.
  3. If cities allowed more housing to be built, they could become more affordable, meaning people wouldn't have to feel forced to leave their homes.

Top Links 571 Trump's fiscal shock. The Latino working-class. The Mozambique tuna fishing fleet is for sale.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Fiscal policy Labor Issues International relations Economic Trends
  1. Trump's fiscal policies could have a significant impact, leading to major financial changes. It's important to think about what these changes could mean for the economy.
  2. The Latino working class plays a key role in shaping economic trends and discussions today. Understanding their perspectives can help in finding better policies.
  3. There are interesting developments in unexpected areas like the Mozambique tuna fishing fleet. This shows that global events can affect local economies in surprising ways.

Households and Houses

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Trends Homeownership Rental market
  1. There's a big housing shortage in the U.S., with millions of homes missing compared to the number of households that want them. This means many people can't find decent places to live.
  2. Most new building has focused on single-family homes, but there's a growing need for more apartments. Many cities have rules that make it hard to build these apartments, which worsens the housing situation.
  3. To fix the housing problem, we can either try to stop investment in single-family home rentals or change the laws to build more apartments. Making it easier to build apartments is a better choice for everyone.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Investments Mortgage Rates Economic Trends
  1. House prices are on the rise, with the Case-Shiller National Index showing a year-over-year increase of about 3.8% in November. This trend seems to be continuing into December as well.
  2. The month-over-month changes show that house prices have increased 0.44%, which means house prices have been consistently going up for 22 consecutive months.
  3. Looking ahead, there’s speculation about what will happen with house prices in 2025, indicating that trends in housing are important for future planning.

Trading The Shit Show: February 2025 Market Update

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 40 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Personal Finance Economic Trends Mental health
  1. The writer has been sober for 72 days, which has brought them clarity and peace. They feel that stepping back from gambling and trading has helped them focus better on their life.
  2. They are optimistic about their market predictions, having outperformed the S&P by 9% since the beginning of the year. A clear mind seems to be helping their financial outlook.
  3. New features for paid subscribers have been introduced, allowing for more direct discussions. This change aims to create a better connection with their readers.

Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 129 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Debt Economic Trends Real Estate Mortgage
  1. There won't be a big drop in home prices because most people aren't selling under distress like before. Homeowners are in a better position now with more equity and low-rate mortgages.
  2. Mortgage debt is increasing, but not alarmingly. The current lending standards are stricter than during past bubbles, so it's less risky.
  3. Many new mortgages are going to borrowers with strong credit scores. This means that lending practices are healthy and borrowers are more qualified.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Housing Market
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 3.8% year-over-year in November, indicating rising home prices. This is a good sign for homeowners as it shows property values are generally going up.
  2. House prices rose by 0.3% in November according to the FHFA index, showing a slower growth rate compared to previous years. It suggests that higher mortgage rates might be affecting buyers' demand.
  3. New York had the highest annual home price increase at 7.3%, while Tampa saw a decline of 0.4%. Different regions are experiencing varying trends in home price changes.

Investing Update: Insiders & Hedge Funds Bearish?

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 01 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Hedge Funds Stock Performance Economic Trends
  1. January showed positive trends for the Dow, indicating a potentially good year for the market. The Dow was up 4.7%, a promising start compared to the other indexes.
  2. Many S&P 500 stocks are reaching new highs, suggesting a strong market performance. This is the highest level since last November, which could be a positive sign.
  3. Investors are shifting money into U.S. equities, with noticeable inflows in financials and consumer cyclical sectors. This trend indicates growing confidence in these areas.

Gold Surpasses $2900 Per Ounce

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Commodities Markets Economic Trends Monetary Policy
  1. Gold prices hit a new record, surpassing $2,900 per ounce, largely due to economic uncertainty and concerns about inflation. This has made gold an attractive option for many investors.
  2. Trade tensions between the US and China, along with tariffs on steel and aluminum, have pushed global capital towards gold as a safe investment. Countries like China are also building their gold reserves, which supports higher prices.
  3. Despite rising interest rates normally being bad for gold, the current economic landscape and investor fears about inflation are keeping demand strong. Many people see gold as a way to protect their wealth in uncertain times.

Top Links 544 The US housing market is stuck. The "dim Sum death cross". How young women are overtaking men & brands are triggering cognitive dissonance.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Market Economic Trends Social Issues Demographics Cognitive dissonance
  1. The US housing market is currently not moving, which means buying or selling homes is very slow right now.
  2. Young women are becoming more successful than men in many areas, changing the usual dynamics in society.
  3. Brands are creating confusion for people, leading them to think differently about their products and values.

The Seven Samurai: Big Tech to the Rescue!

Musings on Markets • 1538 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investment Analysis Stock Market Economic Trends Company Valuation
  1. The 'Magnificent Seven' stocks, which include major companies like Apple and Amazon, significantly boosted the US market in 2023. They contributed to over half of the market's growth, highlighting their importance in investing.
  2. These companies have shown strong performance not just recently, but over the past decade. If investors didn't include these stocks, they likely missed out on significant gains.
  3. Despite their past success, investors should be cautious. Valuations for these companies are high now, and prices may drop if they don't meet the high expectations set by the market.

I Am Back: Exposing the Bullsh*t Market

Behavioral Value Investor • 282 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Behavioral Finance Cryptocurrency Economic Trends
  1. The author took a break from writing because it felt too scheduled and stressful, but now plans to write when inspired instead. This way, they can share better insights without pressure.
  2. There's a lot of strange behavior in today's markets, like people paying an outrageous amount for a banana or a company being valued more than its actual Bitcoin holdings. It shows how market psychology can be very irrational.
  3. Many financial indicators are warning signs of problems ahead, but people often ignore them because the current trends seem to last. It’s important to recognize these warnings to avoid repeating past mistakes in investing.