The hottest Economic Trends Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

The Housing Shortage by Metro Area, Part 3

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Trends Real Estate Local government
  1. Many cities have the ability to build more homes. This could help solve the housing shortage that many areas are facing right now.
  2. Some regions struggle with local rules that make it hard to build new homes, while others have been affected by tight mortgage lending practices.
  3. The Midwest has been particularly hit by the lack of new housing construction, even with growing demand, mainly due to mortgage issues from the last decade.

The Housing Shortage by Metro Area, Part 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Economic Trends Urban Development
  1. There's a significant housing shortage in many metro areas, estimated to be about 10% of the total housing stock nationwide. This means many places don't have enough homes for everyone who wants to live there.
  2. The housing shortage has changed over time, often depending on local conditions and policies. Some areas had bigger shortages in the past due to population movement and construction slowdowns.
  3. When housing production drops, it usually leads to people moving away from cities with limited homes. This creates a cycle where demand keeps rising, but construction can't keep up, leading to more shortages.

The Fed's Secret Confession: The Beige Book Reveals a Troubling US Economy

COVID Reason • 436 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends Market Analysis Central Banks Consumer behavior Global Economy
  1. The recent Beige Book shows that the U.S. economy is actually slowing down, not improving. Many regions reported economic decline, especially in manufacturing.
  2. There are rising concerns about job security and consumer spending. People are cutting back on spending due to financial worries and many companies are freezing hiring.
  3. Global economic issues are also affecting the U.S. market. Weak demand for products and looming recession signals are worrying for businesses and consumers alike.

I Am Back: Exposing the Bullsh*t Market

Behavioral Value Investor • 267 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Behavioral Finance Cryptocurrency Economic Trends
  1. The author took a break from writing because it felt too scheduled and stressful, but now plans to write when inspired instead. This way, they can share better insights without pressure.
  2. There's a lot of strange behavior in today's markets, like people paying an outrageous amount for a banana or a company being valued more than its actual Bitcoin holdings. It shows how market psychology can be very irrational.
  3. Many financial indicators are warning signs of problems ahead, but people often ignore them because the current trends seem to last. It’s important to recognize these warnings to avoid repeating past mistakes in investing.

The Bear Cave #245

The Bear Cave • 653 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate News Regulatory issues Economic Trends
  1. New reports are raising serious concerns about several companies, including Hershey, which was found to have harmful chemicals in its products. This could impact its reputation and sales.
  2. Several high-profile executives have recently resigned from their positions at major companies, suggesting possible instability or issues within those organizations.
  3. There are calls for caution when it comes to tweeting about stocks, as public opinions and statements can significantly affect market perceptions and investments.
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Investing Update: Is This Peak Bullishness?

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 30 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Market Analysis Financial News
  1. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high this month, with November being the best month of the year so far. This indicates strong market performance overall.
  2. Many individual stocks are also doing great this year, with a majority of them showing positive results. Specifically, financial stocks are leading the way in performance.
  3. December is traditionally a good month for the market, especially in an election year, which encourages bullish investor sentiment.

How to Spot a Star

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 2859 implied HN points • 06 Oct 24
💼 Business Talent Management Human Resources Staffing Economic Trends
  1. It's important to look beyond just education to spot talent. People can be talented even within the same educational background, and practice and perseverance often matter more than where you went to school.
  2. Personality traits, like conscientiousness, play a big role in success. Those who work hard and stay focused are more likely to succeed, especially in lower-skilled jobs.
  3. Asking unique questions in interviews can help identify true talent. For example, finding out what someone reads for fun can reveal their interests and drive more than traditional job history.

Case-Shiller and Filtering

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Inflation Supply and Demand
  1. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices, historically suggested a housing bubble. However, it may actually reflect a housing shortage rather than a bubble bursting.
  2. When adjusting home prices for inflation using rent instead of general CPI, the index shows that home prices are still significantly elevated due to high rents driving prices up.
  3. Today's housing market struggles with a lack of new homes, leading to increased prices for existing homes. This lack of building capacity has made it harder for younger generations to have the same homeownership opportunities as their grandparents.

Top Links 544 The US housing market is stuck. The "dim Sum death cross". How young women are overtaking men & brands are triggering cognitive dissonance.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Market Economic Trends Social Issues Demographics Cognitive dissonance
  1. The US housing market is currently not moving, which means buying or selling homes is very slow right now.
  2. Young women are becoming more successful than men in many areas, changing the usual dynamics in society.
  3. Brands are creating confusion for people, leading them to think differently about their products and values.

Renters and the mortgage crackdown aftermath

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgages Economic Trends
  1. Renters suffered a lot from stricter mortgage rules after 2008. Many renters ended up paying more due to fewer homes being built.
  2. There is a big difference in rent prices between rental apartments and owned homes. Renters often find they're spending more for less quality compared to homeowners.
  3. To fix these problems, we need either a lot more new rental buildings or easier access to mortgages for families. If not, many will keep struggling in high-priced rental markets.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Investment Analysis Market research
  1. The national house price index increased by 3.9% from last year, showing steady growth in home values.
  2. Most cities saw home prices rise month-to-month, but some places like Los Angeles and Miami experienced declines.
  3. While year-over-year growth is still positive, the pace of increase is slowing down, indicating that the housing market might be stabilizing.

The Corporate Life Cycle: Managing, Valuation and Investing Implications

Musings on Markets • 1438 implied HN points • 20 Aug 24
💼 Business Corporate Finance Valuation Investment Strategies Management Economic Trends
  1. Businesses, like people, go through life cycles. They start as new ideas, grow, and eventually decline if not managed properly.
  2. Companies age differently, impacting their strategies and financial health. Younger companies often focus on growth, while older ones need to defend their position or manage decline.
  3. The skills and qualities needed in leadership change with a company's age. A startup needs a visionary leader, while a declining company may require a pragmatic approach to manage its downsizing.

Top Links 541 US profits have a long way to fall. Africa's new gold rush. Laos' fx reserves running low & the crisis in the Sahel.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💰 Finance Corporate Profits Economic Trends Global Markets Resource Management Financial Crises
  1. US corporate profits are expected to decline significantly in the future. This could impact the economy and stock markets.
  2. Africa is experiencing a new wave of interest in gold mining. This could bring economic growth to the region.
  3. Laos is facing a shortage of foreign exchange reserves, which may lead to a financial crisis. Additionally, the Sahel region is experiencing ongoing challenges and instability.

Housing Worries Are Building

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgage Rates Economic Trends Home Sales
  1. Mortgage rates have jumped to 7%, which is making it hard for people to buy new homes. As a result, new home sales have dropped significantly, the worst drop since 2013.
  2. Building permits for new homes are also falling, which often happens before recessions. This suggests that fewer homes will be built in the near future, putting pressure on the housing market.
  3. There are a lot of new homes waiting to be sold, the highest number since 2009. If this trend continues, it could lead to a drop in home prices.

October 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment
  1. Home construction costs have risen over time, but the price hikes for new homes are affected more by land costs and less by construction costs. This means that it's getting harder for average families to afford homes, as they are paying more for existing homes due to limited supply.
  2. In higher-end markets, the quality and size of new homes aren’t keeping up with rising incomes. Despite inflation, average people are struggling more because the character of new homes is changing despite high land values.
  3. The overall housing market reflects different trends for rich and average buyers. Wealthier buyers usually track new home costs, while average buyers feel the squeeze from existing home prices influenced by constrained supply.

First Rate Cut + Q&A

DeFi Education • 779 implied HN points • 23 Aug 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Labor Market Interest Rates Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve is making changes to its policies, indicating the economy is shifting. This could affect things like interest rates and inflation.
  2. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that they don’t want the economy to cool down too much. This suggests they are looking for a balance between growth and stability.
  3. There is a focus on the labor market and inflation, which are key indicators for the economy. These factors will influence future decisions from the Federal Reserve.

Why True Friendship is Built on Unconditional Kindness

The Profile • 277 implied HN points • 06 Oct 24
💼 Business Leadership Entrepreneurship Corporate strategy Work Culture Economic Trends
  1. Kindness can make a big difference in someone's life. Small acts of kindness can create lasting memories and connections.
  2. People often remember those who showed them genuine kindness over time. It's those warm moments that stand out in our hearts.
  3. Choosing kindness in tough situations is rare but important. It can help people feel seen and supported when they need it the most.

Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

Mule’s Musings • 83 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Earnings Markets Economic Trends Stocks
  1. Several companies, including AMD and INTC, have recently released their earnings reports. This is important for investors to understand how these companies are performing.
  2. The list of companies mentioned are all key players in the tech and semiconductor industries. Keeping an eye on their earnings can provide insight into market trends.
  3. This information is mainly aimed at subscribers, indicating it may include in-depth analysis or additional insights for those interested in stock performance.

October 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Urban Development Supply Chain
  1. Rents are going up because there's not enough housing supply. Even as rents rise, home prices continue to reflect this shortage.
  2. Since the housing crisis in 2008, homes in larger cities have generally become cheaper, while smaller cities have seen their prices increase. The mortgage restrictions ended up making things worse for affordable housing.
  3. The main issue with housing costs isn't about big-city advantages, but rather it's about how difficult it is to build new homes in many areas, leading to a supply problem.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Statistics
  1. Housing starts in October dropped to 1.311 million, which is lower than both September and October of last year. This shows a continued decrease in new home construction.
  2. Single-family housing starts also fell by about 6.9% compared to the previous month, suggesting potential challenges in the market for individual homes.
  3. Multi-family housing starts saw a trend of weakness over the past year, indicating it may be harder to get those types of buildings underway, while single-family starts have been improving recently.

The Best Trades "Often Take A Little More Patience" To Develop

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 11 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Trading Market Analysis Financial advice Economic Trends
  1. Good trades often need more time and patience to develop, so it's smart to be patient in the market. Don't rush into decisions just because you feel pressured.
  2. The semiconductor sector is very strong right now, particularly companies like Nvidia, but it's important to be cautious because not all companies in this sector are doing well.
  3. Keep in mind that trading can be risky and it's always best to consult a financial advisor before making big decisions. It's okay to seek advice, but ultimately, you're responsible for your choices.

Rent inflation since Covid

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Inflation Economic Trends Urban Development Migration
  1. Rent prices have risen significantly since Covid, especially in areas with low housing supply. This has caused many families to struggle with housing costs.
  2. After a temporary shift in housing demand during the pandemic, some families moved away from expensive urban areas. However, this has led to rising rents in previously cheaper neighborhoods.
  3. Currently, rent inflation seems to be moderating, which is good news for families. If housing construction continues to grow, it could help families afford better living situations.

October 2024 Inflation and Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Monetary Policy Economic Trends
  1. Inflation is returning to a 2% trend, which is good news, but this isn't widely reported. This trend is important for future monetary policy decisions.
  2. Rent inflation is finally slowing down, and maintaining consistent home prices is helping this situation. Focusing on general inflation rather than rent can help stabilize the economy.
  3. Excessive rent inflation has been controlled, but there should be a focus on building more homes over the next decade to further improve housing affordability.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Analysis Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates but is now signaling that they may not do it quickly again. This can be seen as a bit disappointing for the markets.
  2. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, mentioned they are not in a hurry to make more rate cuts. This message is important for those watching the economy.
  3. Overall, it seems the Fed wants to stay cautious and not rush decisions that could impact the market.

Clouded Judgement 10.25.24 - Misaligned Incentives

Clouded Judgement • 13 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Investment Strategies Financial Markets Economic Trends
  1. Venture capitalists are changing how they work with founders. Instead of focusing on big wins together, some are now just trying to make quick money from management fees.
  2. Founders should be careful about raising too much money too early. Getting larger sums from investors can often come with higher valuations, which can hurt the business long-term.
  3. It's important for founders to know how many other companies their investors are supporting. If an investor has too many companies, they might not have enough time to help yours succeed.

The Seven Samurai: Big Tech to the Rescue!

Musings on Markets • 1538 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investment Analysis Stock Market Economic Trends Company Valuation
  1. The 'Magnificent Seven' stocks, which include major companies like Apple and Amazon, significantly boosted the US market in 2023. They contributed to over half of the market's growth, highlighting their importance in investing.
  2. These companies have shown strong performance not just recently, but over the past decade. If investors didn't include these stocks, they likely missed out on significant gains.
  3. Despite their past success, investors should be cautious. Valuations for these companies are high now, and prices may drop if they don't meet the high expectations set by the market.

Why the low multiple series: Rental Car companies edition, part 2

Yet Another Value Blog • 1631 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Companies Market Analysis Economic Trends Financial Strategy
  1. Rental car companies are currently trading at low multiples, making them a potentially cheap investment.
  2. Despite the persuasive bear case, the bull case for rental car companies includes aggressive capital returns to shareholders and potential for sustained earnings.
  3. Structural improvements in the rental car industry, such as consolidation and disciplined supply, could support profitability even if current high levels are not completely sustainable.

Retirement

We're Gonna Get Those Bastards • 8 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
💰 Finance Retirement Investing Personal Finance Social Security Economic Trends
  1. Having a plan for retirement is important to avoid boredom. Rather than just watching TV all day, think about activities you enjoy or new hobbies you want to pursue.
  2. Working longer can lead to better financial stability in retirement. Delaying Social Security benefits can significantly increase the amount you receive later on.
  3. To have a fulfilling retirement, it’s crucial to keep engaging with the world. Experiences and social interactions can provide inspiration for creative pursuits like writing.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 05 Aug 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Economic Trends Interest Rates
  1. The stock market is experiencing a decline due to concerns about weaker growth in China and delays in new technologies from major companies like Nvidia. Investors are getting nervous, leading to a selloff.
  2. Reports of disappointing job numbers in the U.S. have made investors worried about the economy, especially with the Federal Reserve possibly cutting interest rates into a recession rather than a soft landing.
  3. Despite the current market downturn, historical data suggests that bull markets can last longer than many think. This bull market has lasted about 22 months so far, which is still shorter than average.

Volatility "Can Be Beneficial": Trading The Election Results

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
💰 Finance Trading Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Volatility
  1. Volatility in the market can actually provide good trading opportunities. When things are uncertain, smart traders can find chances to profit.
  2. Listening to expert traders can be really helpful, especially those who are honest about their successes and failures. It helps build trust and understand the market better.
  3. Election results often change market dynamics, creating unique situations for investors. Keeping track of these changes can be essential for making informed decisions.

Picking Stocks Is Hard

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Portfolio Management Financial Analysis Economic Trends
  1. Picking stocks is really tough because most of the returns come from a tiny number of stocks. It means many investors, even pros, often lose money.
  2. About two-thirds of stocks don't do as well as the overall market. This makes it harder for investment managers to pick winning stocks.
  3. Over 90% of active fund managers struggle to beat their benchmarks over ten years. It shows just how challenging stock picking really is.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. House prices, when adjusted for inflation, are currently about 1.5% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that even though prices seem high, they aren't as high as they were last year when considering the money's value.
  2. Real estate prices have been increasing steadily over time, and currently, they are 11% above the prices during the housing bubble of 2006. People should keep an eye on these real prices to better understand the market.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is still down around 8% from its highest point in 2022. This suggests that renting is somewhat more affordable compared to buying, which is an important factor for homebuyers to consider.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 21 Jul 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Cryptocurrency Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. Investing in the stock market during election years is usually a good idea, as many years have shown positive returns regardless of who wins.
  2. Mark Cuban suggested that a Trump presidency could benefit Bitcoin and crypto businesses, mentioning that lower tax rates and business-friendly regulations could boost prices.
  3. Amazon's Prime program remains very popular, with many members sticking around for years, which supports the company’s strong sales during events like Prime Day.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 199 implied HN points • 23 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Market Strategies
  1. Nvidia's stock is seen as highly valued and risky by some investors. They believe more affordable competitors are rising, and the AI chip market isn't as profitable as thought.
  2. The stock market is split; while tech stocks soar, many other sectors seem stagnant. It's suggested to balance your portfolio by investing in more stable sectors like industrials and healthcare.
  3. Investing in Japan is gaining attention due to favorable economic changes and companies aiming to boost their values. This could provide good opportunities for diversification.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 159 implied HN points • 29 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Billionaires Dividends Economic Trends
  1. AI is really changing the game for billionaires, with many seeing huge increases in their wealth this year. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, has gained $65 billion thanks to this trend.
  2. Investors are seeing big changes in the stock market due to AI. Companies tied to AI are outperforming others significantly, which hasn't been seen since the dot-com boom.
  3. Dividends are an important part of investing, and there are companies that have been paying them for over 100 years. These can be good long-term investments since they show a commitment to returning value to shareholders.

❄️ 📈 Meta et Apple, une bonne idée ? La fin de Google Search ?

Snowball • 727 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
💰 Finance Technology Market Analysis Company performance Investment Economic Trends
  1. Apple announces mixed quarterly results, with higher iPhone and wearables sales but lower revenues in China.
  2. ESG funds' popularity drops due to rising interest rates.
  3. Startups like Perplexity and Arc are reshaping internet search with artificial intelligence, possibly challenging Google's traditional method.

How VCs and Startups can beat currency depreciation 🌍

The VC Corner • 259 implied HN points • 15 May 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Investing Emerging Markets Economic Trends
  1. Emerging markets face big challenges because their currencies often lose value quickly. This makes it hard for investors to see good returns.
  2. Venture capital can be a smart way to invest in tech startups in these markets, targeting companies that can thrive despite currency issues.
  3. Look for signs of potential like high smartphone use and government support for tech growth, as these can help identify promising investment opportunities.

People Have More Money Than Ever

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
💰 Finance Personal Finance Consumer behavior Asset management Economic Trends Investment Strategies
  1. Many people have more money now than ever because wages have been rising faster than inflation for over a year. This means that they can buy more with their earnings.
  2. Homeowners are seeing their property values increase, while those looking to buy are facing more expensive housing costs. This shows the trade-off between rising asset values and affordability.
  3. Overall, both asset prices and wages are at all-time highs, which has led to a significant increase in net worth for Americans across all income levels, especially the bottom 50%.

The crisis VCs face turning investments into cash returns

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Investments Startups Financial Markets Economic Trends
  1. Venture capitalists are struggling to turn their investments into cash returns. This means they are having a tough time selling their stakes in companies for a profit.
  2. There has been a significant drop in the number of venture-backed company exits. The amount of money made from these exits is now much lower than it was in previous years.
  3. The slow pace of returns is affecting the number of active venture funds. Many funds have stopped working or reduced in size because of the less promising investment environment.