The hottest Economic Trends Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics
COVID Reason 436 implied HN points 25 Oct 24
  1. The recent Beige Book shows that the U.S. economy is actually slowing down, not improving. Many regions reported economic decline, especially in manufacturing.
  2. There are rising concerns about job security and consumer spending. People are cutting back on spending due to financial worries and many companies are freezing hiring.
  3. Global economic issues are also affecting the U.S. market. Weak demand for products and looming recession signals are worrying for businesses and consumers alike.
Concoda 243 implied HN points 09 Jun 25
  1. The money market is currently stable, with dealers holding more U.S. Treasuries. This might lead to more relaxed conditions in the market.
  2. Investors are not as worried about future issues with T-bills as they were during the previous debt ceiling crisis. This suggests a more confident market outlook.
  3. Upcoming auctions of longer-term bonds are expected to attract foreign investors, which could positively impact yields despite fears about rising rates.
Concoda 221 implied HN points 02 Jun 25
  1. The money market is moving from a period of cash abundance to more careful funding conditions. This could affect how money flows in the next few months.
  2. A big change is expected once the debt limit is resolved, which could lead to a surge in bills. This might reduce the reserves banks have available.
  3. Foreign investors may be less interested in U.S. Treasury securities because other local bonds offer better returns. This could impact future U.S. debt sales.
Musings on Markets 1438 implied HN points 20 Aug 24
  1. Businesses, like people, go through life cycles. They start as new ideas, grow, and eventually decline if not managed properly.
  2. Companies age differently, impacting their strategies and financial health. Younger companies often focus on growth, while older ones need to defend their position or manage decline.
  3. The skills and qualities needed in leadership change with a company's age. A startup needs a visionary leader, while a declining company may require a pragmatic approach to manage its downsizing.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter 19 implied HN points 25 Feb 25
  1. U.S. house prices rose about 4.5% over the past year, showing growth across all regions, but at a slower pace than before. This suggests the market is stabilizing after a period of rapid increases.
  2. The Case-Shiller index indicates that home prices have been increasing month-over-month consistently, with a 0.5% rise recently, even though some cities like San Francisco and Tampa are seeing price declines.
  3. Overall house prices are now higher than they were before the pandemic, but growth is less intense than during peak years, reflecting changes in demand and supply in the housing market.
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Spilled Coffee 84 implied HN points 22 Feb 25
  1. The stock market has been having a tough time lately, especially on Fridays, which have seen significant drops. It's important to pay attention to these patterns when investing.
  2. The Magnificent 7 stocks aren’t performing as well this year compared to last year, suggesting a shift in market dynamics. Other sectors might be starting to pick up the pace instead.
  3. The current bull market is still young, but it's showing strong returns. Statistically, bull markets that reach their third year tend to continue for quite a while, which could mean more growth ahead.
DeFi Education 779 implied HN points 23 Aug 24
  1. The Federal Reserve is making changes to its policies, indicating the economy is shifting. This could affect things like interest rates and inflation.
  2. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that they don’t want the economy to cool down too much. This suggests they are looking for a balance between growth and stability.
  3. There is a focus on the labor market and inflation, which are key indicators for the economy. These factors will influence future decisions from the Federal Reserve.
The Profile 277 implied HN points 06 Oct 24
  1. Kindness can make a big difference in someone's life. Small acts of kindness can create lasting memories and connections.
  2. People often remember those who showed them genuine kindness over time. It's those warm moments that stand out in our hearts.
  3. Choosing kindness in tough situations is rare but important. It can help people feel seen and supported when they need it the most.
Concoda 281 implied HN points 20 May 25
  1. Cash is flowing back into the money markets, leading to calmer conditions. This means there's plenty of cash available, which is a good sign.
  2. The recent panel discussions revealed that issues in the market were influenced by trade tariffs and how they affected different types of financial trades. Understanding these factors can help make better investment decisions.
  3. Despite some panic over the Moody's downgrade, experts believe it's not a big deal and the U.S. Treasuries are still a safe bet. Overall, it's a stable time to consider investing in Treasuries.
Erdmann Housing Tracker 126 implied HN points 11 Feb 25
  1. Canton is facing a serious housing issue, with a big decline in new single-family homes being built. This drop is linked to strict zoning laws that make it difficult for families to create more housing options.
  2. Rents in Canton have grown faster than inflation, which is making it hard for residents. Even though buying a home could be cheaper than renting, many people can't get mortgages due to those same zoning restrictions.
  3. The U.S. has a widespread housing crisis, not just in wealthy areas like New York City but everywhere. If cities make it easier to build new homes, they could become more affordable again.
Erdmann Housing Tracker 42 implied HN points 20 Feb 25
  1. Residential construction jobs are not increasing much and have been stable. This suggests a slow period for the construction industry.
  2. The number of new construction starts was lower this month, indicating potential challenges ahead for the housing market.
  3. Despite issues in construction, there's a lot of political noise happening, which makes the calm in construction seem strange.
Taylor Lorenz's Newsletter 3791 implied HN points 07 Jan 25
  1. The dot-com bubble created a frenzy of investment in tech companies, making many people, like Uncle Paul, very wealthy. This time saw the rise of big names like Amazon and eBay, which changed how we shop.
  2. The excitement of the early internet promised a bright future where anyone could succeed, but the reality was that only a few became rich. Most people couldn't keep up with the fast changes and competition.
  3. The aftermath of the dot-com bubble led to many losses and a stark realization: wealth isn't guaranteed for everyone. Technology reshaped society, but it also introduced new issues like homelessness and inequality in places like California.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter 28 implied HN points 19 Feb 25
  1. In January, housing starts dropped to 1.366 million, which is lower than both December's figures and January 2024's. This shows a ongoing decrease in new housing construction.
  2. Single-family home construction decreased by 8.4% compared to December, which indicates a slowdown in this sector. Meanwhile, multi-family units saw a slight increase year-over-year but still faced declines month-over-month.
  3. There were significant differences in regional construction patterns, especially in the Northeast, which experienced a notable drop, likely due to weather conditions.
The Transcript 79 implied HN points 09 Oct 24
  1. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates but is now signaling that they may not do it quickly again. This can be seen as a bit disappointing for the markets.
  2. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, mentioned they are not in a hurry to make more rate cuts. This message is important for those watching the economy.
  3. Overall, it seems the Fed wants to stay cautious and not rush decisions that could impact the market.
Erdmann Housing Tracker 105 implied HN points 30 Jan 25
  1. Nashville has a unique housing law that helps build affordable starter homes, making it a great place for newcomers. It's important to look at different regions when discussing housing costs.
  2. Charlotte also deserves recognition for managing housing prices better than expected. It's not just the well-known cities that have good housing policies.
  3. Overall, housing costs have risen in Nashville, Charlotte, and Austin over the years, but these cities still have relatively better conditions compared to others. Keeping an eye on varied areas can provide a fuller picture of the housing market.
Erdmann Housing Tracker 21 implied HN points 18 Feb 25
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.
Spilled Coffee 68 implied HN points 08 Feb 25
  1. All major stock indexes ended the week down, showing a shift in market sentiment. This can indicate a possible change in the current bull market.
  2. Despite the recent downturn, some key stocks like Nvidia are bouncing back, and the overall market remains strong as the S&P 500 is near its all-time high.
  3. Historically, February is known for being a tough month for stock performance, especially after Valentine’s Day, which could be a concern for investors.
Erdmann Housing Tracker 84 implied HN points 29 Jan 25
  1. The rent trends in different cities show that Austin is currently performing the best among metro areas in Texas.
  2. When looking at rental prices, it's important to consider whether changes are due to short-term demand shifts or local supply issues.
  3. The Erdmann Housing Tracker provides insights into multi-family construction, which can help understanding the housing market better.
Rob Henderson's Newsletter 2859 implied HN points 06 Oct 24
  1. It's important to look beyond just education to spot talent. People can be talented even within the same educational background, and practice and perseverance often matter more than where you went to school.
  2. Personality traits, like conscientiousness, play a big role in success. Those who work hard and stay focused are more likely to succeed, especially in lower-skilled jobs.
  3. Asking unique questions in interviews can help identify true talent. For example, finding out what someone reads for fun can reveal their interests and drive more than traditional job history.
Erdmann Housing Tracker 337 implied HN points 14 Dec 24
  1. High housing prices in cities don't mean they're great places to live. Instead, these prices often come from not having enough houses.
  2. Cities like Los Angeles are expensive mainly due to people wanting to stay near their families and jobs, even when it gets hard to afford living there.
  3. If cities allowed more housing to be built, they could become more affordable, meaning people wouldn't have to feel forced to leave their homes.
Erdmann Housing Tracker 168 implied HN points 08 Jan 25
  1. There's a big housing shortage in the U.S., with millions of homes missing compared to the number of households that want them. This means many people can't find decent places to live.
  2. Most new building has focused on single-family homes, but there's a growing need for more apartments. Many cities have rules that make it hard to build these apartments, which worsens the housing situation.
  3. To fix the housing problem, we can either try to stop investment in single-family home rentals or change the laws to build more apartments. Making it easier to build apartments is a better choice for everyone.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter 19 implied HN points 13 Feb 25
  1. House prices are on the rise, with the Case-Shiller National Index showing a year-over-year increase of about 3.8% in November. This trend seems to be continuing into December as well.
  2. The month-over-month changes show that house prices have increased 0.44%, which means house prices have been consistently going up for 22 consecutive months.
  3. Looking ahead, there’s speculation about what will happen with house prices in 2025, indicating that trends in housing are important for future planning.
QTR’s Fringe Finance 40 implied HN points 04 Feb 25
  1. The writer has been sober for 72 days, which has brought them clarity and peace. They feel that stepping back from gambling and trading has helped them focus better on their life.
  2. They are optimistic about their market predictions, having outperformed the S&P by 9% since the beginning of the year. A clear mind seems to be helping their financial outlook.
  3. New features for paid subscribers have been introduced, allowing for more direct discussions. This change aims to create a better connection with their readers.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter 129 implied HN points 09 Jan 25
  1. There won't be a big drop in home prices because most people aren't selling under distress like before. Homeowners are in a better position now with more equity and low-rate mortgages.
  2. Mortgage debt is increasing, but not alarmingly. The current lending standards are stricter than during past bubbles, so it's less risky.
  3. Many new mortgages are going to borrowers with strong credit scores. This means that lending practices are healthy and borrowers are more qualified.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter 47 implied HN points 28 Jan 25
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 3.8% year-over-year in November, indicating rising home prices. This is a good sign for homeowners as it shows property values are generally going up.
  2. House prices rose by 0.3% in November according to the FHFA index, showing a slower growth rate compared to previous years. It suggests that higher mortgage rates might be affecting buyers' demand.
  3. New York had the highest annual home price increase at 7.3%, while Tampa saw a decline of 0.4%. Different regions are experiencing varying trends in home price changes.
Spilled Coffee 48 implied HN points 01 Feb 25
  1. January showed positive trends for the Dow, indicating a potentially good year for the market. The Dow was up 4.7%, a promising start compared to the other indexes.
  2. Many S&P 500 stocks are reaching new highs, suggesting a strong market performance. This is the highest level since last November, which could be a positive sign.
  3. Investors are shifting money into U.S. equities, with noticeable inflows in financials and consumer cyclical sectors. This trend indicates growing confidence in these areas.
QTR’s Fringe Finance 14 implied HN points 12 Feb 25
  1. Gold prices hit a new record, surpassing $2,900 per ounce, largely due to economic uncertainty and concerns about inflation. This has made gold an attractive option for many investors.
  2. Trade tensions between the US and China, along with tariffs on steel and aluminum, have pushed global capital towards gold as a safe investment. Countries like China are also building their gold reserves, which supports higher prices.
  3. Despite rising interest rates normally being bad for gold, the current economic landscape and investor fears about inflation are keeping demand strong. Many people see gold as a way to protect their wealth in uncertain times.
Musings on Markets 1538 implied HN points 09 Feb 24
  1. The 'Magnificent Seven' stocks, which include major companies like Apple and Amazon, significantly boosted the US market in 2023. They contributed to over half of the market's growth, highlighting their importance in investing.
  2. These companies have shown strong performance not just recently, but over the past decade. If investors didn't include these stocks, they likely missed out on significant gains.
  3. Despite their past success, investors should be cautious. Valuations for these companies are high now, and prices may drop if they don't meet the high expectations set by the market.
Simon Owens's Media Newsletter 673 implied HN points 17 Jan 25
  1. When TikTok shuts down, a lot of users might turn to other platforms instead. This could create big opportunities for content creators who need to act quickly to capture the new audience.
  2. Many media companies struggle to see the true value of their employees. Freelance creators are finding success on platforms like Substack, showing that they can earn more outside traditional jobs.
  3. Spotify's move into audiobooks has helped it attract new listeners and grow its business. This shift is seen as one of the smartest decisions among streaming services, providing more value to subscribers.
Behavioral Value Investor 282 implied HN points 26 Nov 24
  1. The author took a break from writing because it felt too scheduled and stressful, but now plans to write when inspired instead. This way, they can share better insights without pressure.
  2. There's a lot of strange behavior in today's markets, like people paying an outrageous amount for a banana or a company being valued more than its actual Bitcoin holdings. It shows how market psychology can be very irrational.
  3. Many financial indicators are warning signs of problems ahead, but people often ignore them because the current trends seem to last. It’s important to recognize these warnings to avoid repeating past mistakes in investing.
The Bear Cave 676 implied HN points 05 Jan 25
  1. Hims & Hers Health could be in trouble if the FDA removes its shortage label on semaglutide, which would stop them from selling compounded versions of the drug.
  2. Recent reports revealed Carvana's questionable dealings related to $800 million in loan sales and a possible SEC investigation, leading to a significant drop in their stock.
  3. There have been several high-profile executive resignations recently, indicating potential instability in companies like Integral Ad Science and Aurora Innovation.
Yet Another Value Blog 1631 implied HN points 11 Jan 24
  1. Rental car companies are currently trading at low multiples, making them a potentially cheap investment.
  2. Despite the persuasive bear case, the bull case for rental car companies includes aggressive capital returns to shareholders and potential for sustained earnings.
  3. Structural improvements in the rental car industry, such as consolidation and disciplined supply, could support profitability even if current high levels are not completely sustainable.
Spilled Coffee 112 implied HN points 04 Jan 25
  1. The S&P 500 had a strong year in 2024, finishing with a gain of 23.3%. It was one of the best years for the stock market since the late 90s.
  2. Many stocks performed well, like Nvidia and Palantir, while others like Boeing and Nike struggled significantly. Investors are keeping a close eye on these ups and downs.
  3. Although not as high as 2023, the actively managed portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 with a return of 49.5%. This shows a consistent trend of good investment decisions.
Concoda 508 implied HN points 23 Jan 25
  1. A funding squeeze is turning into a big increase in cash availability. This change is happening as market conditions ease, but new issues like the debt ceiling are causing uncertainty.
  2. The financial system has a lot less cash than it had in the past, partly because of changes in how money markets operate. There hasn't been serious funding stress recently, which is a good sign.
  3. Another cash surge is expected to hit the banking system soon. As the Treasury reduces its cash cushion, this could lead to more market volatility down the line.
Concoda 443 implied HN points 01 Feb 25
  1. The Federal Reserve is continuing its balance sheet reduction to avoid financial crises, with expectations of it ending by June.
  2. The U.S. Treasury might reduce its issuance of short-term bills to save costs, especially if the Fed maintains its current policies.
  3. Despite challenges like a strong dollar and global tensions, risk assets are anticipated to perform better than bonds in the near future.
Jon’s Newsletter 119 implied HN points 05 Aug 24
  1. The stock market is experiencing a decline due to concerns about weaker growth in China and delays in new technologies from major companies like Nvidia. Investors are getting nervous, leading to a selloff.
  2. Reports of disappointing job numbers in the U.S. have made investors worried about the economy, especially with the Federal Reserve possibly cutting interest rates into a recession rather than a soft landing.
  3. Despite the current market downturn, historical data suggests that bull markets can last longer than many think. This bull market has lasted about 22 months so far, which is still shorter than average.
Erdmann Housing Tracker 189 implied HN points 29 Nov 24
  1. Many cities have the ability to build more homes. This could help solve the housing shortage that many areas are facing right now.
  2. Some regions struggle with local rules that make it hard to build new homes, while others have been affected by tight mortgage lending practices.
  3. The Midwest has been particularly hit by the lack of new housing construction, even with growing demand, mainly due to mortgage issues from the last decade.
Erdmann Housing Tracker 168 implied HN points 05 Dec 24
  1. Housing prices in Missouri increased from the late 1990s to mid-2000s, but not necessarily because of a bubble. Instead, they align more with normal price patterns over a long period.
  2. There was a lending boom that raised home prices, mostly due to easier access to credit. However, this did not lead to a big increase in homeownership in Missouri.
  3. After the market crash post-2008, home construction dropped significantly, causing a supply shortage which has kept rents and housing prices high, particularly in lower-tier markets.
Erdmann Housing Tracker 189 implied HN points 27 Nov 24
  1. There's a significant housing shortage in many metro areas, estimated to be about 10% of the total housing stock nationwide. This means many places don't have enough homes for everyone who wants to live there.
  2. The housing shortage has changed over time, often depending on local conditions and policies. Some areas had bigger shortages in the past due to population movement and construction slowdowns.
  3. When housing production drops, it usually leads to people moving away from cities with limited homes. This creates a cycle where demand keeps rising, but construction can't keep up, leading to more shortages.
Jon’s Newsletter 119 implied HN points 21 Jul 24
  1. Investing in the stock market during election years is usually a good idea, as many years have shown positive returns regardless of who wins.
  2. Mark Cuban suggested that a Trump presidency could benefit Bitcoin and crypto businesses, mentioning that lower tax rates and business-friendly regulations could boost prices.
  3. Amazon's Prime program remains very popular, with many members sticking around for years, which supports the company’s strong sales during events like Prime Day.