The hottest Interest Rates Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Noahpinion β€’ 8647 implied HN points β€’ 03 Feb 24
  1. The U.S. economy is showing strong signs of a soft landing with low unemployment, surging job numbers, high employment rates, and accelerating wages.
  2. Inflation has fallen back to the 2% target, providing a remarkable macroeconomic achievement.
  3. Despite the strong economy, there is speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon due to reasons like accelerating productivity growth.
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) β€’ 1238 implied HN points β€’ 24 Jan 24
  1. The Fed's main concern is avoiding an unnecessary recession, not reversing a rate cut.
  2. Inflation has decreased, but the Fed is hesitant to cut rates due to fears of inflation resurgence.
  3. The Fed should balance its mandate of stable prices and maximum employment to avoid causing an unnecessary recession.
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality β€’ 146 implied HN points β€’ 12 Feb 24
  1. Capital is increasingly substituting labor, affecting income inequality and job opportunities.
  2. Some New York Times reporters display lack of awareness about key policies and issues, raising questions about the purpose of journalism.
  3. The Apple Vision Pro VR headset is considered innovative but not without limitations, targeting a specific tech-savvy audience.
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Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) β€’ 1356 implied HN points β€’ 11 Jan 24
  1. The labor market is strong, American consumers are spending well, and most families are financially better off.
  2. Inflation is heading towards 2%, with businesses adjusting prices and the Fed needing to act accordingly.
  3. Forecasts suggest a recession may be avoided, softening the pessimistic rhetoric and improving consumer sentiment.
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality β€’ 130 implied HN points β€’ 11 Feb 24
  1. The graph shows a decline in global real interest rates over 800 years, challenging the idea of 'secular stagnation'.
  2. Interest rates' evolution over history raises questions about the relationship between the rate of profit, societal changes, and financial market dynamics.
  3. Factors like technological progress, income growth, and human behaviors impact the slope of the real intertemporal price system, affecting interest rates.
Off to Lunch β€’ 334 implied HN points β€’ 01 Feb 24
  1. The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates at 5.25%, despite a split vote among committee members.
  2. Inflation is still high in the UK at 4%, above the Bank's 2% target, but recent data suggests a slowdown in the economy.
  3. The Bank's monetary policy report hints at inflation potentially dropping to 2% in the near future, but interest rates may not be cut until sustained evidence is seen.
The Overshoot β€’ 452 implied HN points β€’ 27 Jan 24
  1. The U.S. Economy is showing strong growth and may not need rate cuts despite controlled inflation.
  2. Traders anticipate interest rates to decrease, but data suggests a period of faster growth akin to past economic booms.
  3. Initial forecasts of a U.S. recession were proven wrong, with the economy growing over 3% and showing resilience against negative predictions.
Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America β€’ 884 implied HN points β€’ 12 Jan 24
  1. The S&P 500 continues to rise despite bad news like inflation and unemployment.
  2. Big tech billionaires are heavily investing in AI that may impact the job market and lead to technological warfare.
  3. Geopolitical tensions, including the possibility of war in the Middle East, are influencing the market's stability.
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality β€’ 161 implied HN points β€’ 06 Feb 24
  1. The US Federal Reserve is hesitant to adjust its policy interest rate despite the economy being in balance.
  2. The Fed remains cautious about aligning rates with the neutral rate due to uncertainties in the economic outlook and inflation risks.
  3. The announcement of maintaining the federal funds rate range at 5.25-5.5% raised concerns given the already balanced US macroeconomy.
The Sunday Morning Post β€’ 58 implied HN points β€’ 11 Feb 24
  1. The housing crisis has worsened in recent years due to factors like increased rents and higher home prices, impacting policymakers and individuals alike.
  2. The root of the housing crunch dates back to the Great Recession in 2007, leading to a significant drop in new home construction that never fully recovered.
  3. To ease the housing crunch, there is a need for an increase in the construction of various types of housing units, which has already shown some promise in the rental market.
moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids β€’ 294 implied HN points β€’ 17 Jan 24
  1. The post discusses a visual appreciation of the Black-Scholes Delta equation.
  2. It explains how the call option price must equal the profit and loss of the strategy for no arbitrage.
  3. The analysis visually breaks down the delta calculation, emphasizing the balance between call price and weighted strike.
The Transcript β€’ 78 implied HN points β€’ 05 Feb 24
  1. The Federal Reserve suggested that interest rates may have reached their highest point in this tightening cycle and could start decreasing later this year.
  2. The Fed is cautious about lowering rates too soon and wants to see sustained progress in managing inflation before making any major moves.
  3. Despite some challenges with inflation, the overall economy, especially the job market, remains strong.
Yet Another Value Blog β€’ 1218 implied HN points β€’ 21 Oct 23
  1. Stock market has had a rough few months with significant declines
  2. Current market climate has a lot of fear and worry, but it might be a good time to consider buying stocks
  3. The rise in interest rates has not led to a significant stock market sell-off, suggesting stocks may still be relatively attractive
The People's Economist with Anthony Chan β€’ 19 implied HN points β€’ 09 Feb 24
  1. Consumers in the U.S. are feeling pessimistic despite strong economic indicators like GDP growth, low unemployment rates, and declining Misery Index, mainly due to concerns about inflation viewed as a severe economic hardship.
  2. Recent data suggests that Americans usually lag in incorporating the effects of inflation, with sentiment influenced by inflation readings observed 6 to 12 months prior, leading to a risk-averse approach among consumers.
  3. Consumer dissatisfaction might also stem from the rising prices of dining out compared to cooking at home, affecting restaurant spending and consumer sentiment.
The Sunday Morning Post β€’ 117 implied HN points β€’ 07 Jan 24
  1. The housing market has a significant impact on the U.S. economy, representing 15-18% of GDP.
  2. High interest rates and low inventory in 2023 caused fewer transactions and high home prices.
  3. Predictions for 2024 include falling interest rates leading to more supply, potential modest price declines, and buyers becoming more rational.
The Informationist β€’ 1100 implied HN points β€’ 30 Jul 23
  1. The Bank of Japan recently made an announcement that caused the USD and Japanese bond yields to shift.
  2. The implications of the Bank of Japan's actions have affected US Treasuries and could lead to the US Treasury issuing more debt.
  3. Investors are advised to strategically manage portfolios due to potential market shifts and economic uncertainties.
The Informationist β€’ 1650 implied HN points β€’ 30 Apr 23
  1. Interest rate risks can lead to bank collapses due to mismanagement and lack of oversight
  2. Different types of interest rate risks affect banks' financial positions, such as repricing risk and basis risk
  3. It is important for individuals to be cautious with their bank deposits and consider diversifying investments based on personal risk tolerance and long-term goals
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 108 implied HN points β€’ 14 Dec 23
  1. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce multiple rate cuts in 2024.
  2. Goldman Sachs economists predict three consecutive 25 basis points cuts in March, May, and June.
  3. Market participants are pricing in rate cuts that will bring the Fed Funds target range down to 4.50% to 4.75% by June 2024.
Klement on Investing β€’ 1 implied HN point β€’ 20 Feb 24
  1. Companies with high operating leverage tend to benefit more from extended periods of lower interest rates.
  2. High operating leverage can lead to a larger increase in profits with a small rise in revenues but can also make companies more vulnerable when the economy slows down.
  3. Investors should consider looking for and investing in companies with high operating leverage as financial conditions become less constrained.
Klement on Investing β€’ 3 implied HN points β€’ 15 Feb 24
  1. Markets react to surprises in economic data, not just the data itself. A deviation from consensus forecasts often triggers market movements.
  2. The size of the economic surprise matters. The impact can vary based on the type of data, with some like inflation having stronger effects.
  3. Economic indicators like inflation, unemployment, PMIs, and consumer confidence are crucial for investors to watch. Interest rates also play a significant role.
Asian Century Stocks β€’ 275 implied HN points β€’ 11 Oct 23
  1. Australia's housing market has experienced a long boom driven by various factors like low interest rates, commodity exports, and immigration.
  2. The affordability of Australian properties is a concern with high housing market values, low rental yields, and high household debt compared to income.
  3. Rising interest rates, declining job market, and decreasing migration from mainland China could lead to a potential housing market slump in Australia.
Market Sentiment β€’ 805 implied HN points β€’ 12 Feb 23
  1. Top-down investing looks at big-picture factors like interest rates and GDP, while bottom-up focuses on individual company fundamentals.
  2. Combining both top-down and bottom-up approaches can lead to better investment decisions, as seen from experiences like the 2008 crash and LTCM failure.
  3. In a changing market with high inflation and rising interest rates, the best strategy is to balance top-down understanding with bottom-up analysis for successful investing.
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) β€’ 648 implied HN points β€’ 21 Mar 23
  1. The Fed faces a tough decision on interest rates amidst banking turmoil and high inflation.
  2. Regardless of the rate decision, the Fed will signal that inflation is too high and more rate increases may be needed.
  3. There are signals that inflation may turn down notably by summer, with relief coming in several areas.