The hottest Interest Rates Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 239 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Current-coupon agency MBS yields surged about 63 basis points since late February to roughly 5.44%, marking the largest three-week increase since October 2024 and the highest level since August 2025. This repricing followed global bond-market adjustments tied to the Iran War.
  2. MBS spreads to Treasuries widened significantly, with CCMBS/10-year near 105 bp and CCMBS/7-year near 124 bp, reaching their widest levels since December 2025. The spread widening largely reflects a sharp rise in actual and implied interest-rate volatility (MOVE Index).
  3. Treasury yields moved most in the belly of the curve, and the yield curve is now monotonically increasing from 6 months out to 20 years for the first time since May 2022. This indicates a broad shift toward higher medium- and longer-term yields.

Plumbing Notes: War & Plumbing

Concoda • 383 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Middle Eastern conflict is splitting dollar funding markets: onshore rates are being pushed down by flight‑to‑safety flows while offshore demand for dollar hedges is widening cross‑currency bases.
  2. U.S. policy is reinforcing a unipolar security order, which pushes adversaries to try to destabilize global trade and the dollar rather than confront U.S. power directly.
  3. Markets are likely to feel a slow, persistent drag from the conflict, with weak risk appetite and little expectation that the Fed or government will aggressively backstop a rally.

Lawler: Some Observations on the February Existing Home Sales Release

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 258 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The National Association of Realtors moved its monthly existing-home sales release earlier in the month, and that earlier timing has likely caused larger-than-normal revisions to their monthly sales estimates.
  2. Based on state and local realtor/MLS data, February’s annualized sales rate is likely to be revised down slightly to about 4.03 million, while the year-over-year median single-family home price for February will probably be revised up to around 1.0%.
  3. FOMC dot plots now show over half of participants see the long-run federal funds rate above 3%, a big shift since 2021, even though all participants still assume long-run inflation will be 2% despite current inflation being higher.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 205 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Home sales are very low and months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though not triggering a crash because most homeowners hold substantial equity and many have low mortgage rates.
  2. Mortgage rates first fell briefly but have moved up to seven-month highs, and geopolitical uncertainty plus stock market weakness are hurting buyer demand and could further weaken sales.
  3. Price indexes show only modest year-over-year gains (around 1–2%) with small month-to-month rises, but the trend is slowing and the Case-Shiller data has a lag that may understate current price pressure.

Plumbing Notes: Nothing Ever Happens

Concoda • 297 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Dollar funding markets are very calm now: money market volatility has fallen and overnight rates across repo, FX swaps, and unsecured markets have settled at a lower equilibrium.
  2. Higher interbank volumes and declining repo rates have kept the SOFR–FF basis narrow and swap spreads less negative, signaling easier plumbing even though further moves remain possible.
  3. The Fed’s shift away from QT toward reserve injections has compressed rates and volatility (the “Great Compression”), which is good for policy stability but has reduced trading opportunities and left few attractive relative-value trades.
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Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 181 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Current-coupon MBS yields jumped to their highest since last September and CCMBS/Treasury spreads widened to levels not seen since December as surging oil prices and war-related uncertainty pushed overall interest rates up.
  2. Implied interest-rate and equity volatility (MOVE and VIX) spiked, and higher rate volatility tends to raise MBS yields versus Treasuries because the mortgages’ embedded prepayment option becomes more costly to investors.
  3. A prior announcement that GSEs would buy about $200 billion of MBS briefly tightened spreads, but since then CCMBS yields are roughly 21 basis points higher and spreads 10–13 bp wider, so investors buying alongside GSEs should have a clear exit strategy.

The Fed's Independence is at Stake and it May Be Its Own Fault!

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2849 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Fed’s independence is under direct political threat, as prosecutions and public attacks on its chair show how easily monetary policy can be politicized.
  2. Since 2008 the Fed gained huge powers (QE and near-zero rates) and its leaders became public celebrities, which makes their decisions more influential and more attractive targets for presidents who want easier policy.
  3. By failing to stop the pre-2008 bubble and then rescuing the system with extraordinary tools, the Fed created moral hazard and invited interference; protecting independence means avoiding normalizing emergency policies and dialing back the public spotlight.

Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 263 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Mortgage-backed security yields fell when 10-year Treasuries briefly dropped below 4%, but MBS spreads to Treasuries widened and are now about as wide or wider than before the GSE purchase announcement.
  2. Spreads had narrowed earlier due to very low rate volatility and expectations that GSEs were buying more MBS, yet rising implied and actual interest-rate volatility has pushed spreads wider again as markets reassess how sustainable the tight spreads are.
  3. January GSE holdings rose only modestly (Freddie ~$3.9B, Fannie ~$11.5B), but those monthly figures show settled purchases only and don’t reflect commitments that would mostly settle in February or later, so they don’t reveal the true pace of GSE buying.

Not Much has Changed

The Transcript • 179 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The economy is doing okay overall, even though growth has slowed down a bit since the Fed lowered interest rates. It seems like things are more stable than expected.
  2. Consumers are still spending, and there’s no big drop in retail shopping, which is a good sign for the economy. Most people are managing to keep up with their finances.
  3. Investors are holding onto a lot of cash right now and might be waiting for better opportunities to invest. Many think current asset prices are too high.

Jerome Powell's Scorched Earth Moment?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Jerome Powell may be at a defining moment where his actions could have major consequences for policy and markets.
  2. Today’s Fed press conference and policy decision are especially important and worth close attention because they could shift market expectations.
  3. Detailed analysis of the situation is available only to paid subscribers, so the deeper takeaways are behind a paywall.

The Fed's New Target: Part II

Concoda • 302 implied HN points • 15 Feb 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The overnight fed funds rate is becoming unreliable because trading volumes have collapsed and rival interbank markets are emerging, putting the current mechanism near a breaking point.
  2. Since 2008, huge reserve growth has propped up the effective fed funds rate and hidden the decline in unsecured interbank activity, but that stability is fragile and no longer shows the true cost of dollar funding.
  3. The Fed will need a new target rate soon, and it is likely to consider options like administered rates (IORB or o/n RRP), an existing benchmark, a rates basket, or creating a new benchmark.

First Rate Cut + Q&A

DeFi Education • 779 implied HN points • 23 Aug 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve is making changes to its policies, indicating the economy is shifting. This could affect things like interest rates and inflation.
  2. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that they don’t want the economy to cool down too much. This suggests they are looking for a balance between growth and stability.
  3. There is a focus on the labor market and inflation, which are key indicators for the economy. These factors will influence future decisions from the Federal Reserve.

Plumbing Notes: A Global Compression

Concoda • 540 implied HN points • 01 Feb 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Fed’s bill buying has compressed the SOFR–fed funds basis and pushed overnight dollar funding rates into a narrow ‘sweet spot’ a few basis points below interest on reserves.
  2. Large banks are swapping reserves into Treasuries and keeping extra reserve cushions because of unrealized losses and outflow risk, so big dollar clearers are less willing to step in as backstops.
  3. Further Fed cuts will likely reduce excess reserves but make banks more willing to lend at tighter spreads, helping contain overnight rates and supporting a weakening macro outlook.

Top Links 1000 Fed dissent. Restricting junk food. Hidden foster care & the secret SLS.

Chartbook • 586 implied HN points • 01 Feb 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve is growing more divided about the right path for interest rates, which could raise uncertainty for markets and borrowers.
  2. Policymakers and public-health groups are pushing to restrict junk food availability and marketing to combat obesity and related illnesses.
  3. Serious issues in foster care are staying hidden from public view, and a secretive SLS program underscores gaps in oversight and transparency.

Plumbing Notes: Repo 101

Concoda • 594 implied HN points • 25 Jan 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. A repo is a short-term cash loan secured by securities; GC (triparty) repos use pooled high-quality collateral on BNY’s triparty platform, while SC (DVP/bilateral) repos move specific securities over Fedwire for trading needs.
  2. The market is split by how trades clear and settle: cleared interdealer venues go through the FICC (GCF and DVP), uncleared segments (triparty and NCCBR) serve different counterparties, and sponsored/agent clearing services are shifting activity toward central clearing to reduce systemic risk.
  3. Four overnight benchmarks capture key funding lanes—o/n TPR (triparty), o/n GC (GCF), o/n DVP (cleared DVP), and o/n NCCBR (uncleared bilateral)—and dealers routinely borrow in one segment (often from money funds) and lend across the others.

Fed Should Hold Rates Steady In March

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Fed should hold its policy rate steady in March rather than cut, because current economic data don’t justify easing despite headline uncertainty.
  2. Monetary policy rules like the Taylor rule and nominal GDP rules point to a policy rate near 4 percent, which is above the current 3.5–3.75 percent range and suggests restraint or even a modest increase.
  3. Further rate cuts would need clear evidence — for example inflation falling toward 2 percent, unemployment rising by about a full percentage point, or a sizable drop in nominal spending — so the Fed should wait for those signals before easing.

Infographics: Key Rates & Spreads In the Modern Repo Market

Concoda • 216 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The infographic lays out the key repo market interest rates that set the cost of short‑term secured funding. It gives a quick visual sense of how those rates behave in the modern market.
  2. It highlights the average spreads dealers earn on repo trades, showing that dealers capture consistent compensation differences across repo types and counterparties. This makes dealer economics a clear part of repo pricing.
  3. The figures are presented in the context of the Fed’s new policy target, implying these rates and spreads matter for monetary operations and market functioning. That connection suggests changes in Fed policy will affect repo dynamics.

USDJPY: The Most Important Chart in the World

Kerman Kohli • 118 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Japanese Yen's value impacts global trade. When the Yen is weak, Japanese exports become cheaper for other countries, but imports get more expensive.
  2. Japan's massive debt isn't a problem as long as their interest rates stay low. This keeps borrowing cheap, allowing them to manage their debts without immediate consequences.
  3. The USD/JPY exchange rate is crucial for understanding the global economy. Changes in this rate can affect investments and interest rates in other countries, making it a key chart to watch.

Unpopular Quick Take

Points And Figures • 453 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The ten‑year Treasury yield is high largely because demand for debt is strong as the economy expands, not because of runaway inflation.
  2. Corporate capex is rising due to tax incentives like full expensing and big AI investments, which is pushing firms to borrow more and support higher long‑term rates.
  3. Traditional inflation signals and manufacturing are cooling — CPI and commodity prices are down and ISM is in contraction — so growth appears driven by investment and productivity gains rather than broad consumer inflation or big hiring waves.

Not in a Hurry

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve is not rushing to cut interest rates anytime soon. They want to see more economic data before making any decisions.
  2. Many experts believe that the market may be expecting interest rate cuts too soon and that any drops in rates won't happen as fast as people think.
  3. Overall, the economy shows signs of strength with stable hiring and positive corporate earnings, making it unclear if rate cuts are actually needed right now.

Four Rules for the New Fed Chair

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 255 implied HN points • 31 Jan 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Kevin Warsh is well qualified for Fed chair, with the intellect and experience to engage with complex policy and market issues.
  2. His confirmation should depend on clear commitments to protect the Fed’s independence and on the President taking visible steps to resolve legal or political uncertainty around the central bank’s leadership.
  3. The Fed’s success rests on credibility and autonomy, not just technical mastery, because markets only function well when they trust the central bank.

The Fed Eases

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Fed cut rates by 0.25% and said it will expand its balance sheet by buying short-term Treasurys to keep ample bank reserves.
  2. Policymakers now expect inflation to fall (about 3% end-2025 and 2.5% in 2026) and slightly raised GDP forecasts while unemployment stays near current levels.
  3. The balance-sheet move is meant to ease interbank liquidity strains and should push short-term yields lower, which has already helped lift futures and the stock market.

Plumbing Notes: Swifter Injections

Concoda • 664 implied HN points • 05 Dec 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The market is expecting the Fed to start adding liquidity sooner than later, possibly around January. This means banks might have more cash available sooner than previously thought.
  2. There are signs that funding conditions are improving slightly, even with banks tightening their balance sheets. So, while things might look tough, the year-end might not be as bad as it seems.
  3. The Fed is likely to keep rates steady for now and avoid making big changes. They don't want to create more chaos in the funding markets, especially with liquidity injections on the horizon.

The Fed's New Target: Part I

Concoda • 281 implied HN points • 10 Jan 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Fed is moving away from targeting an unsecured overnight fed‑funds rate and toward a secured repo benchmark as its main policy rate to reduce volatility and strengthen control over money markets.
  2. The Fed has started large reserve injections and new permanent open‑market operations that have compressed overnight money‑market rates and prevented year‑end plumbing stress.
  3. As a result, banks’ balance sheets are set to expand, the repo market will become central to rate setting, and the unsecured interbank market’s role is likely to shrink.

Is This the Time to Buy a Home?

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Interest rates are finally falling, but that hasn’t translated into lower home prices yet, so cheaper financing doesn’t automatically mean cheaper homes.
  2. Inventory is rising and there are more sellers than buyers, yet overall demand has barely moved, creating mixed signals about whether it’s truly a buyer’s market.
  3. Individual listings can still spark bidding wars and sell well above asking—especially for clean, desirable properties—so outcomes vary by property and buyers should be selective and cautious.

Infographics: The Fed's Repo Rate "Sweet Spot"

Concoda • 286 implied HN points • 28 Dec 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Fed wants repo rate benchmarks to sit in a narrow "sweet spot" just below the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) rate.
  2. It will actively force those repo rates to print inside that zone, even when market pressures push them elsewhere.
  3. Opposing forces can move repo benchmarks off-target, but the Fed intends to counteract them to keep rates anchored just below IORB.

Plumbing Notes: The Post-QT Era

Concoda • 459 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The end of the current period of quantitative tightening (QT) is approaching, and this is important for understanding future liquidity in the market. Basically, financial conditions are expected to tighten as we move towards the end of the year.
  2. There is a significant focus on U.S. Treasury cash targets and how they will change next year. The Treasury may be raising its cash reserves target due to increased demand for short-term securities.
  3. The expectations are that the Federal Reserve will start injecting more money into the market, but that might not happen until early 2026. Meanwhile, banks are likely to adjust their operations to manage tighter balance sheet conditions.

The Fed Is Adding $20B A Month To The Balance Sheet

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Fed quietly restarted QE and is adding roughly $20 billion a month to its balance sheet, which is already about $6.6 trillion and could balloon much higher in the next crisis.
  2. Most Fed purchases have been in short-term debt, which has pushed short rates down and steepened the yield curve. The Fed has been losing money and isn’t remitting profits to the Treasury, leaving a large deferred loss.
  3. Foreign buyers have helped absorb new Treasury issuance but their buying has flattened recently, so if the Fed won’t buy long-term bonds and foreign demand stalls, Treasury borrowing costs could spike and further strain the budget.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 05 Aug 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The stock market is experiencing a decline due to concerns about weaker growth in China and delays in new technologies from major companies like Nvidia. Investors are getting nervous, leading to a selloff.
  2. Reports of disappointing job numbers in the U.S. have made investors worried about the economy, especially with the Federal Reserve possibly cutting interest rates into a recession rather than a soft landing.
  3. Despite the current market downturn, historical data suggests that bull markets can last longer than many think. This bull market has lasted about 22 months so far, which is still shorter than average.

Lights on the runway for the soft landing

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 1356 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The labor market is strong, American consumers are spending well, and most families are financially better off.
  2. Inflation is heading towards 2%, with businesses adjusting prices and the Fed needing to act accordingly.
  3. Forecasts suggest a recession may be avoided, softening the pessimistic rhetoric and improving consumer sentiment.

The "worst possible outcome" for the Fed is an unnecessary recession, not reversing a cut

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 1238 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The Fed's main concern is avoiding an unnecessary recession, not reversing a rate cut.
  2. Inflation has decreased, but the Fed is hesitant to cut rates due to fears of inflation resurgence.
  3. The Fed should balance its mandate of stable prices and maximum employment to avoid causing an unnecessary recession.

A Fed Chair the Markets Will Love

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 268 implied HN points • 01 Dec 25
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Kevin Hassett looks likely to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, and markets would welcome his nomination.
  2. He is less worried about market bubbles and investor exuberance, so AI and other hot stocks would probably keep rising under his leadership.
  3. That short-term market lift could create long-term risks, since continued loose policy might inflame bubbles and cause trouble down the road.

Three reasons the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates soon

Noahpinion • 8647 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. economy is showing strong signs of a soft landing with low unemployment, surging job numbers, high employment rates, and accelerating wages.
  2. Inflation has fallen back to the 2% target, providing a remarkable macroeconomic achievement.
  3. Despite the strong economy, there is speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon due to reasons like accelerating productivity growth.

Slick Landing

Doomberg • 8377 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. In 2022, the US economy was expected to fall into a deep recession, but it didn't.
  2. Despite doubts, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes had a positive impact on the economy.
  3. Forecasts for the US economy are challenging, and unexpected outcomes provide unique learning opportunities.

Countdown to Detonation: America’s Leverage Problem

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 38 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Household debt is very high and still rising, with delinquencies increasing; student loans and mortgages in lower-income areas are showing the most strain.
  2. Real interest rates are now positive, so borrowing is more expensive and many loans and projects that relied on cheap refinancing are being exposed.
  3. The hardest hit will be lower-income regions, weak labor markets, and sectors built on easy credit, and while some deleveraging is a normal correction, the adjustment could be sharp if asset prices or liquidity worsen.

Why Boom-Bust Cycles Validate Austrian Economics

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 21 Feb 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Artificially low interest rates from central bank credit expansion lure entrepreneurs into projects that look profitable but aren’t supported by real consumer preferences, creating a boom that later collapses when policy tightens.
  2. Even if businesses correctly anticipate rate moves, changes in the money supply divert resources into non‑wealth‑generating activities, and variable, unpredictable time lags make it impossible to reliably time or avoid those distortions.
  3. Because firms must chase observable demand or risk failure, the harm from expansionary monetary policy becomes self‑reinforcing and cannot simply be undone by better expectations, so boom‑bust cycles persist.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 17 Feb 26
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Months-of-supply is back to pre-pandemic levels while 2025 home sales were the lowest since 1995 (tying 2024), which is putting downward pressure on prices, especially where inventory is high.
  2. Overall house prices were mostly unchanged year-over-year at the end of 2025 — the Case-Shiller National index was up about 1.4% YoY (Composite 10 +2.0%, Composite 20 +1.4%) — and recent month-to-month gains follow earlier declines, though Case-Shiller data lags by several months.
  3. Lower mortgage rates have led to a pickup in purchase mortgage applications recently, but that increase has not yet translated into significantly more closed sales.

The Houthis, A Disappointing Wage Report, and the Tumbling Yen

Japan Economy Watch • 1098 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. The yen has weakened due to external factors like the Houthi attack, impacting Japanese economy and inflation, and market anticipation of interest rate changes. The disappointing wage report for November dampened expectations for a rise in interest rates by the Bank of Japan, leading to a weaker yen.
  2. An accurate model for predicting the yen's strength has a standard error of about 3.4 yen. A sizeable discrepancy between the model's forecast and the actual yen value could either indicate a correction back to expected levels or suggest a long-term trend change.
  3. The growth in nominal wages in Japan has consistently fallen short of the 3% goal needed for sustained inflation. This has influenced market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions and consequently impacted the yen's valuation.

Media Notes

The Lens • 982 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates
  1. Stephanie Kelton discusses alternative ways to handle inflationary pressures globally
  2. Central banks turning to rate hikes may not be the most effective solution for managing inflation
  3. Raising interest rates can have unintended consequences and may not always lead to desired outcomes