The hottest Market Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Top Business Topics
The Product Channel By Sid Saladi β€’ 10 implied HN points β€’ 25 Feb 24
  1. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a pivotal force in reshaping industries, offering product managers opportunities to enhance their development lifecycle.
  2. Integrating AI into product development leads to reduced time-to-market, increased efficiency, and better resonance with users.
  3. AI helps in enhancing ideation by analyzing customer feedback, conducting market research, and generating innovative concepts to uncover promising opportunities.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 126 implied HN points β€’ 22 Feb 24
  1. Developers and builders fear the loss in the value of their land investments if political obstructions to construction were lifted.
  2. Rents are unlikely to decline significantly in a whole metropolitan area due to new housing supply - housing demand is inelastic.
  3. Invest carefully in real estate market based on real trends but don't let fears about collapsing rents impact your views on housing justice or macroeconomic trends.
Mule’s Musings β€’ 443 implied HN points β€’ 16 Feb 24
  1. An ongoing gamma squeeze at SuperMicro has led to a significant buying pressure, possibly due to high volumes of options expiring.
  2. The significant demand for shares due to in-the-money calls can lead to billions of dollars worth of shares needing to be accounted for.
  3. After the gamma squeeze peaks, there may be a period of share buying, but ultimately, there are expectations for SuperMicro's stock to stabilize and return to normal.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:
Big Technology β€’ 9632 implied HN points β€’ 22 Dec 23
  1. Generative AI will advance in 2024 with new capabilities like better conversation retention and reasoning.
  2. The year 2024 is predicted to be significant for mixed reality advancements, integrating AI avatars and assistants.
  3. Tech industry forecasts include Elon Musk selling X, Meta's market cap reaching $1 trillion, and NVIDIA facing increased competition.
How They Make Money β€’ 727 implied HN points β€’ 09 Feb 24
  1. Meta (META) reported strong Q4 FY23 performance with a 5X return from November 2022 lows, focusing on Metaverse investments and cash returns to shareholders.
  2. Key points from Meta's 'Playbook' include massive compute investment, open-source strategy, future-focused research on AI, data utilization, and an experimentation culture.
  3. In Q4 FY23, Meta saw growth in user metrics and revenue, with an increase in average revenue per user, surpassing competitors like Snap and Pinterest in ARPU.
More Than Moore β€’ 133 implied HN points β€’ 19 Feb 24
  1. AMD had a strong Q4 in 2023 with record-breaking revenue, driven by its Data Center Business Unit.
  2. The Client computing sector saw improvement in Q4 2023 after facing challenges in the first half of the year due to market shifts and inventory digestion.
  3. AMD's Gaming unit experienced a decline in Q4 revenue, mainly due to semi-custom sales, but overall yearly numbers were up with increased Radeon sales.
Snowball β€’ 727 implied HN points β€’ 04 Feb 24
  1. Apple announces mixed quarterly results, with higher iPhone and wearables sales but lower revenues in China.
  2. ESG funds' popularity drops due to rising interest rates.
  3. Startups like Perplexity and Arc are reshaping internet search with artificial intelligence, possibly challenging Google's traditional method.
Stock Market Nerd β€’ 884 implied HN points β€’ 02 Feb 24
  1. Meta Platforms (META) had strong earnings, beating estimates in demand, margins, guidance, and financials.
  2. Amazon (AMZN) also had a successful quarter, exceeding revenue and margin expectations, especially in AWS growth and advertising.
  3. Both companies showcased solid performance, indicating positive trends for their business strategies and financial outlook.
The Bitcoin Layer β€’ 393 implied HN points β€’ 10 Feb 24
  1. Record-breaking first-month inflows for 9 new spot bitcoin ETFs have accumulated $31.6 billion in assets, driving bitcoin to highs above $48,000.
  2. With US Treasury facing funding needs leading to debt monetization surge, Fed liquidity could significantly increase over the coming months.
  3. The Fed might need to monetize Treasury debt due to lack of buyers and liquidity issues, potentially impacting financial market stability and global liquidity.
Clouded Judgement β€’ 13 implied HN points β€’ 23 Feb 24
  1. The importance of growth and profitability in the Rule of 40 for cloud software companies varies over time, with current public markets valuing growth 3.0x more than FCF margin in valuation multiples.
  2. 2024 guides from Q4 calls are not increasing consensus estimates, indicating companies are setting cautious expectations amidst market uncertainty.
  3. Valuation multiples for SaaS businesses are calculated based on their projected revenue, with growth, FCF margin, and NTM growth rate influencing stock valuations.
Invariant β€’ 648 implied HN points β€’ 04 Feb 24
  1. Altria faces challenges in the e-vapor market and criticism for its product development efforts.
  2. The company is focusing on premiumization and maintaining profitability in its smokeable products segment.
  3. Altria's financial health, with strong leverage and cash flow, allows it to return capital to shareholders and navigate market challenges.
Stock Market Nerd β€’ 707 implied HN points β€’ 03 Feb 24
  1. Apple beat revenue estimates but had mixed performance in different product segments, especially in China.
  2. Mastercard surpassed revenue estimates and saw growth in various sectors like cross-border revenue and value-add services.
  3. Match's financial results were strong, although challenges like negative payer growth from price hikes are temporary.
  4. AMD ranked well in Cloud Workload Security and continues to expand its offerings with the potential for higher revenue and margins.
  5. CrowdStrike received recognition in Forrester's Cloud Workload Security report and shows promising growth potential with increased modules for clients.
Second Opinion β€’ 412 implied HN points β€’ 08 Feb 24
  1. Private equity firms are hesitant to make deals in digital health due to post-pandemic fund performance and concerns about the current portfolio's growth potential.
  2. Many potential deals in digital health have complications, making private equity firms cautious and preferring to wait for better opportunities.
  3. Profitability is a key focus for private equity, leading to a scarcity of profitable companies in the health-tech sector and contributing to the hesitation in making investments.
Where's Your Ed At β€’ 20772 implied HN points β€’ 26 Sep 23
  1. Investing in NFTs as a way to own unique digital assets may not guarantee value or ownership of intellectual property.
  2. Many NFT projects overpromise benefits like voting power and ownership in the company, leading to unfulfilled expectations.
  3. The NFT industry is often characterized by scams, fake transactions, and inflated values, preying on the desperation of people seeking investment opportunities.
The Bitcoin Layer β€’ 550 implied HN points β€’ 03 Feb 24
  1. Regional banking sector is facing fear and challenges with toxic assets and credit exposure.
  2. US commercial banks are experiencing a credit problem due to underperforming commercial real estate.
  3. Market participants are struggling with shattered historical correlations and uncertainty regarding the Fed's reaction function.
Faster, Please! β€’ 1553 implied HN points β€’ 13 Jan 24
  1. Interest rates could be used to predict advancements in artificial general intelligence.
  2. MIT economist Daron Acemoglu suggests that the impact of AI may not be as transformative as expected.
  3. Financial markets may offer insights into the future of artificial intelligence development.
Yet Another Value Blog β€’ 1631 implied HN points β€’ 11 Jan 24
  1. Rental car companies are currently trading at low multiples, making them a potentially cheap investment.
  2. Despite the persuasive bear case, the bull case for rental car companies includes aggressive capital returns to shareholders and potential for sustained earnings.
  3. Structural improvements in the rental car industry, such as consolidation and disciplined supply, could support profitability even if current high levels are not completely sustainable.
Venture in Security β€’ 275 implied HN points β€’ 08 Feb 24
  1. Large corporations like Microsoft may have resources, but they often struggle to innovate due to the innovator's dilemma.
  2. Startups need to focus on understanding market needs and finding the right distribution channels to succeed.
  3. Cybersecurity founders should consider external factors like market conditions and economic trends when planning their startup journeys.
The Last Bear Standing β€’ 81 implied HN points β€’ 16 Feb 24
  1. The market has been experiencing significant growth, especially in sectors like Artificial Intelligence and biotech, leading to exponential value increases in certain stocks.
  2. Despite positive economic indicators and accommodative policies, there are some cautionary signals like delays in rate cuts and unexpected inflation data that may impact the stock market.
  3. Investors should remain aware and prepared for the potential scenarios of inflation re-acceleration and its impact on the market.
Bitcoin Magazine Pro β€’ 255 implied HN points β€’ 07 Feb 24
  1. Bitcoin miners facing challenges with high demand and increased mining difficulty.
  2. US government survey on Bitcoin mining industry causing unease among miners and regulators.
  3. Market conditions and impending Bitcoin halving likely to impact mining industry, regardless of government actions.
Bitcoin Magazine Pro β€’ 412 implied HN points β€’ 01 Feb 24
  1. Bitcoin ETF inflows have been strong in January, reaching $1.3 billion in net inflows.
  2. Price reactions to ETF inflows have not been strong yet, but are expected to come.
  3. The recent FOMC decision had no change in policy, causing initial stock sell-offs, but stocks rebounded, and the macro thesis suggests potential recession signals.
Asian Century Stocks β€’ 884 implied HN points β€’ 17 Jan 24
  1. Japan's corporate governance reforms, starting with Abenomics, have been driving positive change in the capital allocation practices of Japanese companies.
  2. The Tokyo Stock Exchange's new listing structure, especially the Prime Market, has raised standards for companies, promoting better corporate governance.
  3. The practice of naming and shaming low price/book ratio companies in Japan is pushing them to improve profitability, enhance investor communication, and comply with new capital allocation rules.
The Ankler β€’ 137 implied HN points β€’ 11 Feb 24
  1. Learn about job opportunities in entertainment: Discover growing fields, unexpected job areas, and where Hollywood professionals are being placed by recruiters.
  2. The documentary market shifts: From small stories to celebs and sports stars, there's a potential return to a lucrative phase.
  3. TV news star salaries declining: High-profile news anchors like Rachel Maddow and Sean Hannity are seeing budget cuts and changes, indicating a shift in the industry.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 89 implied HN points β€’ 14 Feb 24
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index revealed a year-over-year increase of 5.1% in house prices, with expectations of a more positive change in December.
  2. Different measures like the NAR, ICE, and Freddie Mac also show positive trends in house prices, hitting new all-time highs in December 2024.
  3. This analysis provides insights into the current state of the housing market, offering a glimpse into where it has been, where it is now, and where it might be heading.
The Better Letter β€’ 511 implied HN points β€’ 26 Jan 24
  1. Fear sells and makes money, driving many market predictions based on fear.
  2. Investors face fear daily, driven by narratives over data, making them susceptible to fear-mongering.
  3. Long-term investment is crucial; while fear may lead to short-term moves, the market trends upwards over time, favoring investment.
Compounding Quality β€’ 904 implied HN points β€’ 14 Jan 24
  1. Luxury goods have enduring appeal and never go out of fashion
  2. The company being highlighted is a strong player in the luxury industry with a diverse portfolio of brands and global presence
  3. The company has shown strong financial performance with consistent revenue and cash flow growth, making it an attractive investment option