The hottest Market Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Top Business Topics
Doomberg β€’ 10309 implied HN points β€’ 28 Feb 24
  1. It's important for analysts to reflect on their past work to improve and learn from mistakes.
  2. Understanding the political landscape is crucial for predicting market trends, especially in energy markets.
  3. The strategy of imposing sanctions against Russia may be ineffective and could have negative consequences on the global financial system.
SemiAnalysis β€’ 5354 implied HN points β€’ 17 Mar 24
  1. Astera Labs is a key player in the AI infrastructure market, supplying connectivity chips to hyperscalers, AI accelerator vendors, and system OEMs.
  2. Connectivity in the datacenter market is highly competitive, but Astera Labs has the opportunity to become a connectivity 'Superhero' by maintaining market share and expanding product lines.
  3. Astera Labs focuses on solving connectivity bottlenecks in high-speed interfaces by offering retimers to improve signal integrity, particularly targeting PCIe 4.0 and 5.0 specs.
Where's Your Ed At β€’ 20772 implied HN points β€’ 26 Sep 23
  1. Investing in NFTs as a way to own unique digital assets may not guarantee value or ownership of intellectual property.
  2. Many NFT projects overpromise benefits like voting power and ownership in the company, leading to unfulfilled expectations.
  3. The NFT industry is often characterized by scams, fake transactions, and inflated values, preying on the desperation of people seeking investment opportunities.
Big Technology β€’ 9632 implied HN points β€’ 22 Dec 23
  1. Generative AI will advance in 2024 with new capabilities like better conversation retention and reasoning.
  2. The year 2024 is predicted to be significant for mixed reality advancements, integrating AI avatars and assistants.
  3. Tech industry forecasts include Elon Musk selling X, Meta's market cap reaching $1 trillion, and NVIDIA facing increased competition.
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Irrational Analysis β€’ 159 implied HN points β€’ 23 May 24
  1. Irrational Analysis is heavily invested in the semiconductor industry, giving insights into the comical undervaluation of NASDAQ:ARM.
  2. Nvidia's massive demand for GB200 and Grace CPUs could have significant implications for ARM (LTD)'s value and future performance.
  3. Nvidia Grace CPUs might exceed sell-side expectations, potentially propelling ARM (LTD) value beyond current projections.
SemiAnalysis β€’ 4141 implied HN points β€’ 01 Nov 23
  1. AMD's MI300 is positioned as a strong competitor in LLM inference against Nvidia and Google hardware.
  2. Major companies like Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Google, and Amazon have already placed orders for AMD MI300.
  3. AMD's Datacenter GPU revenue is expected to reach over $2 billion in 2024 with strong demand from customers and supply constraints.
Irrational Analysis β€’ 79 implied HN points β€’ 20 May 24
  1. Ampere Computing is likely facing challenges as most of their customers have transitioned to other solutions.
  2. Despite unique product advantages, Ampere Computing is struggling as customers are moving to alternatives in the market.
  3. Lack of transparency on technical details raises doubts about Ampere Computing's innovation and competitiveness in the semiconductor industry.
Yet Another Value Blog β€’ 1631 implied HN points β€’ 11 Jan 24
  1. Rental car companies are currently trading at low multiples, making them a potentially cheap investment.
  2. Despite the persuasive bear case, the bull case for rental car companies includes aggressive capital returns to shareholders and potential for sustained earnings.
  3. Structural improvements in the rental car industry, such as consolidation and disciplined supply, could support profitability even if current high levels are not completely sustainable.
Faster, Please! β€’ 1553 implied HN points β€’ 13 Jan 24
  1. Interest rates could be used to predict advancements in artificial general intelligence.
  2. MIT economist Daron Acemoglu suggests that the impact of AI may not be as transformative as expected.
  3. Financial markets may offer insights into the future of artificial intelligence development.
Stock Market Nerd β€’ 884 implied HN points β€’ 02 Feb 24
  1. Meta Platforms (META) had strong earnings, beating estimates in demand, margins, guidance, and financials.
  2. Amazon (AMZN) also had a successful quarter, exceeding revenue and margin expectations, especially in AWS growth and advertising.
  3. Both companies showcased solid performance, indicating positive trends for their business strategies and financial outlook.
How They Make Money β€’ 727 implied HN points β€’ 09 Feb 24
  1. Meta (META) reported strong Q4 FY23 performance with a 5X return from November 2022 lows, focusing on Metaverse investments and cash returns to shareholders.
  2. Key points from Meta's 'Playbook' include massive compute investment, open-source strategy, future-focused research on AI, data utilization, and an experimentation culture.
  3. In Q4 FY23, Meta saw growth in user metrics and revenue, with an increase in average revenue per user, surpassing competitors like Snap and Pinterest in ARPU.
Snowball β€’ 727 implied HN points β€’ 04 Feb 24
  1. Apple announces mixed quarterly results, with higher iPhone and wearables sales but lower revenues in China.
  2. ESG funds' popularity drops due to rising interest rates.
  3. Startups like Perplexity and Arc are reshaping internet search with artificial intelligence, possibly challenging Google's traditional method.
Asian Century Stocks β€’ 884 implied HN points β€’ 17 Jan 24
  1. Japan's corporate governance reforms, starting with Abenomics, have been driving positive change in the capital allocation practices of Japanese companies.
  2. The Tokyo Stock Exchange's new listing structure, especially the Prime Market, has raised standards for companies, promoting better corporate governance.
  3. The practice of naming and shaming low price/book ratio companies in Japan is pushing them to improve profitability, enhance investor communication, and comply with new capital allocation rules.
Japan Economy Watch β€’ 1018 implied HN points β€’ 04 Jan 24
  1. Market players and forecasters may be misreading the intentions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) about inflation and wage data.
  2. The BOJ's ambiguous messages and contradictory statements are causing confusion in the market.
  3. Evaluating services inflation and wage hikes requires careful consideration of data and not jumping to conclusions.
Stock Market Nerd β€’ 707 implied HN points β€’ 03 Feb 24
  1. Apple beat revenue estimates but had mixed performance in different product segments, especially in China.
  2. Mastercard surpassed revenue estimates and saw growth in various sectors like cross-border revenue and value-add services.
  3. Match's financial results were strong, although challenges like negative payer growth from price hikes are temporary.
  4. AMD ranked well in Cloud Workload Security and continues to expand its offerings with the potential for higher revenue and margins.
  5. CrowdStrike received recognition in Forrester's Cloud Workload Security report and shows promising growth potential with increased modules for clients.
Compounding Quality β€’ 904 implied HN points β€’ 14 Jan 24
  1. Luxury goods have enduring appeal and never go out of fashion
  2. The company being highlighted is a strong player in the luxury industry with a diverse portfolio of brands and global presence
  3. The company has shown strong financial performance with consistent revenue and cash flow growth, making it an attractive investment option
Invariant β€’ 648 implied HN points β€’ 04 Feb 24
  1. Altria faces challenges in the e-vapor market and criticism for its product development efforts.
  2. The company is focusing on premiumization and maintaining profitability in its smokeable products segment.
  3. Altria's financial health, with strong leverage and cash flow, allows it to return capital to shareholders and navigate market challenges.
Lenny's Newsletter β€’ 3537 implied HN points β€’ 16 May 23
  1. Having a venture-scale startup idea involves aiming for $100 million annual revenue and $1 billion+ valuation in 10 years.
  2. Venture-scale investors look for a large market, a scalable business model, high growth potential, the ability to turn capital into growth, and a path to going public.
  3. Not all startup ideas need to be venture-scale; many ideas can still build a great revenue-generating business without the pressure and expectations of venture capital.
The Bitcoin Layer β€’ 550 implied HN points β€’ 03 Feb 24
  1. Regional banking sector is facing fear and challenges with toxic assets and credit exposure.
  2. US commercial banks are experiencing a credit problem due to underperforming commercial real estate.
  3. Market participants are struggling with shattered historical correlations and uncertainty regarding the Fed's reaction function.
Mule’s Musings β€’ 449 implied HN points β€’ 16 Feb 24
  1. An ongoing gamma squeeze at SuperMicro has led to a significant buying pressure, possibly due to high volumes of options expiring.
  2. The significant demand for shares due to in-the-money calls can lead to billions of dollars worth of shares needing to be accounted for.
  3. After the gamma squeeze peaks, there may be a period of share buying, but ultimately, there are expectations for SuperMicro's stock to stabilize and return to normal.
Points And Figures β€’ 346 implied HN points β€’ 29 Feb 24
  1. The main reason for business failure often boils down to individuals not being able to achieve product-market fit.
  2. Businesses that may seem logical on the surface can actually struggle to succeed in the startup world.
  3. Investing in startups involves understanding that success may not always follow a straightforward, logical path, and accepting the inherent risks involved in the process.
Irrational Analysis β€’ 219 implied HN points β€’ 23 Mar 24
  1. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is a new and important type of DRAM that has gained significance in the industry for its relevance to AI.
  2. The DRAM market, volatile in nature, has seen Micron making gains in HBM and facing challenges from competitors like Samsung with poor HBM yields.
  3. Investors interested in the HBM market need to be cautious due to the market's volatility and the potential impact of competitors like Samsung on HBM gross margins.
Invariant β€’ 609 implied HN points β€’ 14 Jan 24
  1. 22nd Century Group focused on developing low-nicotine cigarettes but didn't consider if consumers wanted the product.
  2. The company struggled with profitability and faced challenges even after receiving authorization for their products.
  3. Shifting focus to a different product with conventional nicotine levels came too late for the company to recover.
The Better Letter β€’ 511 implied HN points β€’ 26 Jan 24
  1. Fear sells and makes money, driving many market predictions based on fear.
  2. Investors face fear daily, driven by narratives over data, making them susceptible to fear-mongering.
  3. Long-term investment is crucial; while fear may lead to short-term moves, the market trends upwards over time, favoring investment.
Second Opinion β€’ 412 implied HN points β€’ 08 Feb 24
  1. Private equity firms are hesitant to make deals in digital health due to post-pandemic fund performance and concerns about the current portfolio's growth potential.
  2. Many potential deals in digital health have complications, making private equity firms cautious and preferring to wait for better opportunities.
  3. Profitability is a key focus for private equity, leading to a scarcity of profitable companies in the health-tech sector and contributing to the hesitation in making investments.