The hottest Investing Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Gold Is Back—And So Is Judy Shelton

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Gold prices are rising due to economic and geopolitical concerns, attracting more interest from central banks. This suggests that many countries are starting to value gold again.
  2. Judy Shelton proposes a new kind of bond that would let people redeem their bonds for gold or dollars, giving the public more control over their money. This could help stabilize the economy.
  3. Shelton believes that moving back to a gold standard could improve trust in the financial system and reduce government control over money supply, which many people see as a good thing.

Where Returns Lie in Venture Capital

East Wind • 29 implied HN points • 17 Sep 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. Venture capital involves finding, evaluating, and supporting startups, but picking the right ones is often overlooked. This 'picking' can greatly affect the overall returns.
  2. Investing in non-consensus startups, or those that most investors avoid, can yield high rewards, but it requires confidence and willingness to take risks.
  3. Markets that are growing fast, or those with less competition like certain consumer sectors, could be good places to find unique investment opportunities. However, these come with their own risks.

The $3 Trillion Question

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. Google's new Willow processor could potentially challenge the security of the bitcoin network. It's important to pay attention to new technologies that might impact cryptocurrencies.
  2. Investing in bitcoin carries risks that can emerge suddenly, especially amid volatility in stock and bond markets. Always be cautious and aware of these risks.
  3. The cryptocurrency market remains complex and unpredictable, so staying informed is crucial for making good investment decisions. Research and understanding are key.

The Market's Mirror, Exhibit "A"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The stock market might be slowing down soon, which is a concern for investors. It's important to pay attention to popular stocks for signs of this change.
  2. There's a belief that we could be on the brink of a significant market crash that could confuse many investors. Being aware of market behaviors can help prepare for what's next.
  3. Frustration with everyday items could be a sign of larger issues, showing that people are feeling the stress of the current economic situation. This reflects broader feelings about the market right now.

The edge in trading IPOs: 18% annual return

Quant Trading Rules • 2 HN points • 08 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Marsten Parker's IPO trading strategy focuses on frequently buying and selling IPOs shortly after they go public, with clear rules for entry and exit.
  2. Buying IPOs at all-time highs showed a significant edge over buying non-IPO stocks at all-time highs, with IPOs performing better after 20 days.
  3. Tweaking profit targets and stop-loss orders in IPO trading strategies can significantly impact annual returns, demonstrating the importance of optimizing these parameters for better performance.
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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. New home listings increased slightly in December compared to the previous year, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic.
  2. Lower mortgage rates during the previous months had encouraged some homeowners to sell, but higher rates now are limiting new sellers this winter.
  3. December and January are usually the slowest months for new home listings, but the year-over-year increase shows some movement in the market.

What If We Run Inflation Hot: Harris Kupperman

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Inflation may rise faster than expected, which could surprise many investors. People are not prepared for high growth in the economy right now.
  2. The recent economic changes have benefited many workers and industries that were struggling for a long time. This includes wage increases in sectors that needed them.
  3. Questions are being raised about whether efforts to control inflation are really aimed at the overall economy or at a specific group of people in the rural areas.

Alumis: Race to a Best-In-Class TYK2 Inhibitor

Axial • 22 implied HN points • 28 Nov 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. Investors are focused on early-stage life sciences companies with strong potential. They look for companies that are often just ideas at first.
  2. The goal is to support inventors who are passionate about creating lasting companies. There’s a strong emphasis on innovation and dedication.
  3. The race is on to develop a leading TYK2 inhibitor, highlighting competition in the biopharmaceutical field. This specific drug target is gaining interest for its potential benefits.

25 Stocks I'm Watching For 2025: Part 1

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The author is identifying stocks to watch for 2025 based on market trends. This can help investors focus on specific opportunities in the stock market.
  2. In the past year, the stocks chosen performed well but not as well as the overall market, particularly the biggest tech companies.
  3. This post offers insights for paid subscribers, suggesting it provides detailed analysis and guidance for making investment decisions.

Tech-Financial-VC Bubbles

Turnaround • 158 implied HN points • 04 Apr 20
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Financial bubbles follow a pattern of phases - starting with intense innovation funding, moving into financial speculation, and finally reaching maturity before a possible burst.
  2. Technology and financial bubbles can be compared to the Greek myth of Sisyphus, where we continually build and push bubbles until they burst, repeating the cycle.
  3. The current tech bubble seems concentrated within private and venture capital, driven by factors like low interest rates, leading to bigger deal sizes and a shift from IPOs to unicorn aspirations.

Seven Powers in Life Sciences

Axial • 7 implied HN points • 06 Jul 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Axial helps new inventors in life sciences by investing in their early ideas. They look for unique founders who are determined to create lasting solutions.
  2. They collaborate with different companies, like Appia Bio and Seranova Bio, to turn ideas into reality. It's about supporting innovations that can change lives.
  3. The goal is to empower inventors to build strong and enduring companies within the life sciences industry. They focus on potential and passion for development.

Drugs that are their own pipelines

Axial • 7 implied HN points • 06 Jul 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Investors are focusing on early-stage life science companies that may start with just an idea. This can help bring innovative health solutions to life.
  2. The partnership between investors and inventors is key. It aims to support those who have a strong desire to build something impactful.
  3. These companies often create their own development pathways, which means they can turn their ideas into reality without needing external support.

Founder-led life sciences companies

Axial • 7 implied HN points • 06 Jul 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Founders who are passionate and innovative can create great life sciences companies. Support for these founders can lead to exciting new ideas in healthcare.
  2. Investing early in life sciences companies can make a big difference. Companies like Appia Bio and Seranova Bio show the potential of starting with just an idea.
  3. Helping unique inventors is important, as they often create lasting businesses that can change the industry. Their strong drive to build is key to their success.

Value investing in life sciences

Axial • 7 implied HN points • 06 Jul 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Investing in early-stage life sciences companies can lead to exciting opportunities. These companies often start with just an idea and have the potential to grow into something great.
  2. Partnering with skilled founders and inventors is crucial for success. Their passion and creativity are key drivers in building successful companies.
  3. Value investing is about helping inventors create lasting impacts in their fields. Supporting these innovators can lead to both financial returns and significant advancements in life sciences.

Business Model Matrix

Axial • 7 implied HN points • 06 Jul 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Axial invests in early-stage life sciences companies, often starting when they are just ideas. They focus on partnering with unique founders and inventors.
  2. The agency aims to support inventors who are deeply passionate about building lasting businesses. They look for those special innovators in their early stages.
  3. Being involved with start-ups like Appia Bio and Seranova Bio shows their commitment to nurturing new ideas in life sciences. They want to help create enduring solutions.

Substitutes and complements in life sciences

Axial • 7 implied HN points • 06 Jul 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Axial works with early-stage life sciences companies, investing in ideas that could grow into something big.
  2. They focus on supporting inventors who are passionate about building lasting solutions in the field.
  3. Collaboration and partnership are key parts of their approach to nurturing innovative ideas and inventions.

Hard Assets

Net Interest • 54 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Sydney Airport is a profitable asset with stable earnings and unique market position
  2. Infrastructure investing is a rapidly growing market opportunity
  3. Large asset owners are increasing their allocations to the infrastructure asset class

We're "On The Cusp" Of Another Inflationary Breakout

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Gold and silver did better than regular stocks in the last quarter, which is unusual. This could mean something important is happening in the market.
  2. Bitcoin had a fantastic year, showing that people are worried about money losing its value. It’s now a big part of some investment funds.
  3. The U.S. government is spending a lot, which helped the economy grow more than expected. But this could lead to inflation issues in the future.

Portfolio Update

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The author added to an existing investment in a debated stock. It's important to keep track of ongoing discussions in the market.
  2. This update is specifically for paid subscribers, suggesting exclusive insights for them. It highlights the value of being a paid member.
  3. Stay engaged with financial updates and portfolio changes to make informed decisions. Regular updates can help you understand market movements better.

The Volatility Divergence

The Last Bear Standing • 22 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Implied volatility has been rising even as stock prices remain strong. This means that while investors are confident, they are also anticipating potential future risks.
  2. The current divergence between high volatility expectations and low actual volatility is unusual. It's rare for stock prices to be high while at the same time expecting more volatility.
  3. There are concerns in the market about various factors like corporate earnings and macroeconomic issues. These worries might not be reflected in stock prices right now, but they're still influencing how investors are pricing risk.

Key Takeaways for Lattice Investors

More Than Moore • 70 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. Lattice Semiconductor has shown consistent revenue growth over the past 12 quarters
  2. The company is shifting focus from consumer to industrial/automotive and communications/computing markets
  3. Lattice's adoption of agile strategies and software solutions are driving growth and higher average selling prices

Big TAM Founders, Small TAM Startups

Working Theorys • 58 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. Consider being a big TAM founder working on a smaller TAM startup for increased chance of success.
  2. Choosing a smaller market and outcome might actually reduce risks and give you more control over success.
  3. Examples like starting a newsletter as a big TAM founder on a small TAM startup show how this strategy can work.

25 Stocks I'm Watching For 2025: Part 2

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. It’s important to look at market trends and themes for the upcoming year. This helps in choosing the right stocks to watch.
  2. Last year's stock picks didn't perform as well as the S&P 500, showing that not all investments roped in big gains.
  3. Identifying potential stocks early can provide insight for making better investment decisions in the future.

How Live Sports Helped Netflix's Stock Surge 400%

Huddle Up • 16 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Live sports have become a key factor in Netflix’s success, contributing to a significant increase in its stock price. It seems that people love watching sports, and that keeps them subscribed to streaming services.
  2. The involvement of high-profile investors, like Bill Ackman, in companies can also impact market trends and stock prices. When a big name invests, it often grabs attention.
  3. Streaming platforms are adapting to include live events to attract and retain viewers. This shift highlights the importance of diverse content to engage audiences.

The Sweet Escape

Malt Liquidity • 6 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The value of money is shifting away from productivity, leading to odd situations where attention and hype are becoming more important than real earnings. This change affects how people view investments.
  2. Many markets are becoming increasingly focused on a few popular sectors, creating bubbles that may burst. It seems like only a small number of stocks are generating most of the trading volume.
  3. Technology investments are growing, but if the benefits aren't shared fairly, wealth disparities will worsen. This could lead to societal issues as people's needs aren't being met.

On Focus

Austin's Analects • 79 implied HN points • 23 Jun 21
💼 Business Investing
  1. Focus on one thing early in your career to get noticed and excel.
  2. Specialize in a specific area to become known as an expert and gain leverage.
  3. Identify what you want to focus on, go all-in, and forget about the distractions.

Buffett's Blueprint

Neckar’s Notes • 15 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Warren Buffett combined reading with building strong relationships to grow his wealth. Both his knowledge and connections helped him succeed.
  2. Buffett pursued wealth in a way that was meaningful and enjoyable to him, focusing on personal growth and independence.
  3. The next Buffett will be proactive in seeking knowledge and crafting their own path, rather than just copying what others did.

It's Always Darkest Before Dawn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The Fed can't stop a bear market from happening when stock prices are extremely high. This means that even with their efforts, a market drop could still occur.
  2. Sometimes it's not worth trying to understand why a strategy failed. It's better to acknowledge it and move on rather than clinging to a losing bet.
  3. Hedge fund managers often write letters during tough times, but many don't take responsibility for their mistakes. It's refreshing when someone admits to being wrong without making excuses.

Catch Me If You Can

Net Interest • 15 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The US stock market has significantly outperformed Europe over the last 15 years, with US stocks providing much higher returns compared to European stocks.
  2. European companies lag behind in major tech innovation, lacking equivalents to successful US companies like Amazon and Google, which has contributed to their slower growth.
  3. Recently, there has been a shift in sentiment among investors towards Europe, with increased interest and consolidation in the asset management industry, indicating potential for future growth.

Gold Surpasses $2900 Per Ounce

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Gold prices hit a new record, surpassing $2,900 per ounce, largely due to economic uncertainty and concerns about inflation. This has made gold an attractive option for many investors.
  2. Trade tensions between the US and China, along with tariffs on steel and aluminum, have pushed global capital towards gold as a safe investment. Countries like China are also building their gold reserves, which supports higher prices.
  3. Despite rising interest rates normally being bad for gold, the current economic landscape and investor fears about inflation are keeping demand strong. Many people see gold as a way to protect their wealth in uncertain times.

Trump’s Victory Has "Delayed The Fiscal Meltdown Scenario"...For Now

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 15 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The stock market is doing well, but gold, silver, and Bitcoin are also gaining value. This shows that investors are already worried about future inflation.
  2. Gold and Bitcoin are acting as warning signs for money printing and potential economic trouble. They have seen significant growth compared to traditional U.S. Treasury bonds.
  3. There is a chance the Federal Reserve will have to resort to methods like quantitative easing again, which means they could start printing more money to stabilize the economy. This could lead to further increases in the value of sound money assets.

Attempting to untangle the messy math behind the "Power Law"

Entry Level Investing • 84 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The concept of the 'Power Law' in venture funding states that a few successful investments drive fund returns, not a normal distribution.
  2. Startup valuations are often based on revenue multiples, deviating from traditional valuation methods like free cash flow analysis.
  3. Overvaluation, excessive spending, and failure to grow into valuations can lead to down rounds, hurting startups and investors.

The Art of The Impossible

Danielle Newnham • 19 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. The newsletter shares inspiring content for founders, including podcasts, interviews, quotes, books, and videos.
  2. Founders can benefit from learning about what investors look for, pitfalls to avoid in fundraising, and the importance of building a network.
  3. The book 'Super Founders' reveals surprising insights about billion-dollar startups, such as the lack of industry experience among unicorn founders and the role of competition.

Picking Stocks Is Hard

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Picking stocks is really tough because most of the returns come from a tiny number of stocks. It means many investors, even pros, often lose money.
  2. About two-thirds of stocks don't do as well as the overall market. This makes it harder for investment managers to pick winning stocks.
  3. Over 90% of active fund managers struggle to beat their benchmarks over ten years. It shows just how challenging stock picking really is.