The Last Bear Standing

The Last Bear Standing offers comprehensive analysis on financial markets, focusing on Federal Reserve policies, liquidity issues, asset valuation, and the interplay of global economies. It delves into monetary policy impacts, banking sector dynamics, tech sector performance, and the role of transparency in financial stability, providing insights through economic data and market trends.

Federal Reserve Policies Liquidity and Banking Sector Asset Valuation and Market Trends Global Economic Dynamics Financial Regulations and Stability Monetary Policy and Inflation Tech Sector Analysis Transparency in Financial Systems

The hottest Substack posts of The Last Bear Standing

And their main takeaways
45 implied HN points β€’ 24 Jan 25
  1. Nuclear power is getting a lot of hype and some companies are seeing big stock gains. This is partly because there's a growing demand for energy from datacenters.
  2. However, the nuclear industry has been shrinking for many years, with no new large plants in development and existing plants facing high costs and old age.
  3. Even though small nuclear reactors are in the works, they won't be ready soon and are unlikely to be cheap or meet the growing energy needs.
24 implied HN points β€’ 17 Jan 25
  1. Inflation is complex and influenced by many factors, making it hard to pinpoint why prices change. It often feels like a guessing game without clear answers.
  2. The market reacts strongly to data on inflation, analyzing numbers intensely, but sometimes it loses sight of the bigger picture, like underlying economic trends.
  3. Current monetary policies have shifted, and while they initially helped reduce inflation, signs suggest that prices may be climbing again as the economy changes.
28 implied HN points β€’ 10 Jan 25
  1. Microsoft is investing in significant capital projects which could impact the market. It's good to pay attention to how this could change things in the future.
  2. Labor market data is mixed; while some numbers seem weak, others show strength. This may indicate a balancing act in the economy.
  3. Inflation and earnings reports coming up are essential to watch. They will likely add more excitement and direction to the market soon.
49 implied HN points β€’ 03 Jan 25
  1. Market sentiment is influenced by human emotions and can swing widely, affecting prices up and down. This means that even if things look strong, feelings can drive prices lower.
  2. Historically, the market goes through cycles of growth and decline, shaped by economic changes and human behavior. We can learn from the past to understand current trends.
  3. While recent years saw some major challenges, like inflation and market drops, the economy proved resilient. New investments helped start a fresh period of growth and optimism.
53 implied HN points β€’ 27 Dec 24
  1. There are 17 stock ideas for 2025 that include 10 buying opportunities and 4 stocks to sell. These ideas focus on different industries and market trends.
  2. The author had success in the past year by betting on precious metals and cryptocurrencies. This year, the focus shifts entirely to equity markets.
  3. The listed stocks cover various topics like space expansion, energy storage, and datacenter needs, showing a diverse range for potential investment.
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36 implied HN points β€’ 20 Dec 24
  1. The Fed is in a new phase of monetary policy, raising questions about whether easing measures are just beginning or already finished. This uncertainty affects markets and investor confidence.
  2. The labor market is showing mixed signals, with job growth continuing but other indicators suggesting a slowdown. This could complicate future monetary policy decisions.
  3. Inflation progress has stalled, and how labor data evolves in 2025 will greatly influence inflation and monetary policy going forward.
45 implied HN points β€’ 13 Dec 24
  1. 2024 showed a strong bull market, with big tech and AI leading the way while smaller companies struggled early on.
  2. Mid-year, signs of inflation and unemployment triggered some market concerns but were quickly eased by positive economic data and rate cuts.
  3. In general, equities did well this year, while bonds had a tougher time, especially U.S. Treasuries, which struggled with rising yields.
55 implied HN points β€’ 29 Nov 24
  1. The stock market is moving up quickly, with some stocks seeing huge gains in just a short time. It feels like the excitement from early 2021 is returning.
  2. Investors are showing great interest in areas like cryptocurrencies and quantum computing, leading to sudden spikes in these stocks. This might remind people of past market trends.
  3. There's a sense of irrational confidence in some investments, which can lead to risky behavior. The market is moving in unpredictable ways, and that's something to watch closely.
74 implied HN points β€’ 15 Nov 24
  1. The U.S. federal budget has big structural problems, like an aging population and increasing debt, making it hard to balance spending and revenue.
  2. Most of the budget goes to a few major areas like Social Security and healthcare, which are expected to grow, so simply cutting discretionary spending won't solve the deficit issue.
  3. Fixing these budget problems requires more than just efficiency cuts; it needs serious changes in laws and policies that are hard to achieve without widespread agreement.
24 implied HN points β€’ 06 Dec 24
  1. Warrants are special financial tools that work like options, but they're directly tied to the company itself. This means that when you exercise them, the company issues new shares and may get extra cash.
  2. SPACs, which are companies created to raise money and merge with other firms, have made warrants more common. They usually come with a strike price over $10 and can help attract investors.
  3. Warrants can be traded on stock exchanges, and their value is influenced by the price of the underlying shares and how much time is left before they expire. They also have unique rules that can affect their trading.
36 implied HN points β€’ 22 Nov 24
  1. Electric air taxis, or eVTOLs, are being developed to provide a new form of urban transportation with benefits like lower noise and zero emissions. However, the actual implementation faces many challenges.
  2. There are many companies competing to create eVTOLs, aiming for a future where flying taxis could become common in crowded cities. But just because the technology exists doesn't mean it's easy to bring it to market.
  3. Understanding the economics behind eVTOLs is crucial. It's not just about building them; they also need to make financial sense for businesses and consumers to use them effectively.
34 implied HN points β€’ 18 Oct 24
  1. Gold prices are rising sharply due to global monetary easing, reaching new highs. This boost has also lifted the prices of large-cap gold mining stocks.
  2. While higher gold prices can lead to greater revenue for miners, increased operating costs can eat into profits. It's essential to consider both sides to understand the miners' performance.
  3. Different gold mining companies have unique challenges and potential for profit. Understanding these differences is crucial if you're looking to invest in gold mining stocks.
22 implied HN points β€’ 08 Nov 24
  1. After the election, the stock market jumped a lot, especially small and tech stocks, showing a positive reaction to the new leadership.
  2. Different companies reacted in various ways; some like energy stocks did well due to traditional support while others, like solar, saw drops.
  3. Concerns about tariffs and manufacturing shifts are growing, with many companies considering moving production out of China to avoid potential issues.
26 implied HN points β€’ 25 Oct 24
  1. A pro-Bitcoin president could change the way the U.S. handles cryptocurrencies, making them more mainstream. This might affect financial markets and how people think about money.
  2. Trump's support for Bitcoin is seen as significant, especially compared to other global leaders who are less supportive. His promise to create a National Strategic Bitcoin Stockpile has caught attention.
  3. The potential rise of Bitcoin could impact economic issues like wealth distribution and government spending. If a major country like the U.S. takes Bitcoin seriously, it can reshape the global financial landscape.
22 implied HN points β€’ 01 Nov 24
  1. Implied volatility has been rising even as stock prices remain strong. This means that while investors are confident, they are also anticipating potential future risks.
  2. The current divergence between high volatility expectations and low actual volatility is unusual. It's rare for stock prices to be high while at the same time expecting more volatility.
  3. There are concerns in the market about various factors like corporate earnings and macroeconomic issues. These worries might not be reflected in stock prices right now, but they're still influencing how investors are pricing risk.
91 implied HN points β€’ 01 Mar 24
  1. Investing in stocks like Kodak can sometimes rely on unexpected factors like pension fund surpluses and potential stock movements based on news.
  2. Successful investing might involve keeping an eye on companies like Celsius Holdings, Inc, and understanding how stock reactions post-earnings might reflect in the market.
  3. MicroStrategy's unique strategy of accumulating Bitcoin adds an interesting premium value to the company, showcasing how the market reacts to assets like bitcoin and stock correlations.
89 implied HN points β€’ 02 Feb 24
  1. Understanding monetary plumbing is important for analyzing financial markets.
  2. Recognizing the directional flow of liquidity in or out of the financial system is key.
  3. Having a sense of the size and direction of monetary flows can provide valuable insight with minimal effort.
81 implied HN points β€’ 16 Feb 24
  1. The market has been experiencing significant growth, especially in sectors like Artificial Intelligence and biotech, leading to exponential value increases in certain stocks.
  2. Despite positive economic indicators and accommodative policies, there are some cautionary signals like delays in rate cuts and unexpected inflation data that may impact the stock market.
  3. Investors should remain aware and prepared for the potential scenarios of inflation re-acceleration and its impact on the market.
55 implied HN points β€’ 08 Mar 24
  1. The equity market has shown signs of over-indulgence recently, with increasing enthusiasm and unbridled momentum.
  2. Market worry has shifted from lack of enthusiasm to lack of disbelief, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current bull run.
  3. The macroeconomic resilience is attributed to a balance between big fiscal policies, monetary tightening, and strong balance sheets post-pandemic.
60 implied HN points β€’ 26 Jan 24
  1. China's economic growth was heavily reliant on property development and infrastructure, funded by the massive expansion of credit.
  2. The shift in Chinese government policy towards reforming the property sector and debt markets led to a significant impact on the economy.
  3. The Chinese financial system faced the risk of a crisis due to the extensive exposure to property debt and potential credit losses.
179 implied HN points β€’ 17 Mar 23
  1. The Federal Reserve struggled with liquidity tightening, leading to emergency measures and a new financial crisis.
  2. Understanding the monetary plumbing system is crucial to comprehending the impact of Quantitative Tightening (QT) on the banking sector.
  3. Quantitative Tightening (QT) may not continue for long, as challenges in the banking sector could be exacerbated without further accommodations from the Federal Reserve.
43 implied HN points β€’ 15 Mar 24
  1. There has been a resurgence of interest in the medical potential of psychedelics, with ongoing research and clinical trials exploring their efficacy in treating mental health conditions.
  2. Despite the challenges and market fluctuations, there is increasing regulatory support for psychedelic drug trials, potentially leading to FDA approvals and breakthrough therapy designations for conditions like PTSD.
  3. Psychedelic treatments involve controlled drug administration in conjunction with therapy, aiming to address the root causes of mental health disorders by stimulating new perspectives and thought patterns.
47 implied HN points β€’ 23 Feb 24
  1. Capital One is acquiring Discover Financial Services, creating the largest vertically integrated card provider and the sixth largest U.S. bank by deposits.
  2. Both Capital One and Discover have seen a rise in bad credit among their subprime borrowers in the past two years.
  3. Consumer credit quality has been deteriorating sharply as pandemic savings decrease, interest rates rise, but consumer spending remains high.
152 implied HN points β€’ 14 Apr 23
  1. The Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate hikes soon, signaling a shift in monetary policy.
  2. Inflation has been influenced by significant increases in money supply during the pandemic, impacting consumer behavior and economic growth.
  3. Financial stability is a top concern for the Fed, potentially outweighing traditional inflation targets and leading to a pause in rate hikes.
160 implied HN points β€’ 10 Mar 23
  1. In the mid-2000s, banks faced a significant problem with growing leverage and inadequate cash reserves.
  2. The 2008 financial crisis led to emergency bailouts to address liquidity issues in the banking sector.
  3. While regulations and liquidity injections have reduced the risk of widespread liquidity crises in large U.S. banks, the 'too-big-to-fail' problem persists in the broader financial system.
144 implied HN points β€’ 07 Apr 23
  1. Households in the United States have a large majority of their net worth in non-cash assets like stocks and real estate, with cash and bank deposits making up a small portion.
  2. Non-cash asset values are extrapolated based on a small percentage that are traded for cash, similar to estimating the total length of a football field by measuring a small unit.
  3. The financial system's implied market value of non-cash assets is ultimately based on a small portion of cash-for-asset exchanges, emphasizing the importance of understanding how cash moves.
133 implied HN points β€’ 03 Mar 23
  1. The Dot Plot is the Fed's way of showing where they think interest rates will go in the future.
  2. Yield Curve Control is when central banks adjust short-term and long-term rates to tackle inflation and maintain financial stability.
  3. The Fed's Dilemma involves trying to raise rates to tackle inflation while avoiding destabilizing long-duration assets and maintaining financial stability.
123 implied HN points β€’ 31 Mar 23
  1. Disclosure and transparency in financial systems can be beneficial for investors.
  2. In certain situations, ignorance can provide stability and prevent panic.
  3. There is a constant balance between the benefits of transparency and the risks of hidden information in financial systems.
123 implied HN points β€’ 10 Feb 23
  1. Current economic conditions are unique and challenging to predict
  2. Bond market indicates a potential recession, while stocks show growth
  3. Market uncertainty leads to inconsistent rebounds in asset prices
89 implied HN points β€’ 21 Apr 23
  1. The Last Bear Standing has been renewed for Season Two, with more insightful content on finance and economics.
  2. Season One of The Last Bear Standing made accurate predictions, demonstrating the writer's expertise in financial analysis.
  3. For Season Two, access will require a paid subscription priced at $200 annually or $20 per month.
101 implied HN points β€’ 17 Feb 23
  1. Balancing risks and benefits involves trade-offs between conflicting goals.
  2. Monetary expansion during the pandemic led to rapid growth but also increased inflation.
  3. The decision to stimulate demand has resulted in inflation battles and uncertainty about future economic stability.
68 implied HN points β€’ 02 Jun 23
  1. The U.S. Treasury has financial strategies in place to address debt ceiling concerns and maintain market liquidity.
  2. The Treasury plans to issue new debt to refill its Treasury General Account (TGA) and may impact bank reserves depending on funding sources.
  3. There is caution regarding the effectiveness of the plan as Treasury auctions are not selective, and market liquidity concerns persist despite RRP usage.