The Last Bear Standing

The Last Bear Standing offers comprehensive analysis on financial markets, focusing on Federal Reserve policies, liquidity issues, asset valuation, and the interplay of global economies. It delves into monetary policy impacts, banking sector dynamics, tech sector performance, and the role of transparency in financial stability, providing insights through economic data and market trends.

Federal Reserve Policies Liquidity and Banking Sector Asset Valuation and Market Trends Global Economic Dynamics Financial Regulations and Stability Monetary Policy and Inflation Tech Sector Analysis Transparency in Financial Systems

The hottest Substack posts of The Last Bear Standing

And their main takeaways
91 implied HN points β€’ 01 Mar 24
  1. Investing in stocks like Kodak can sometimes rely on unexpected factors like pension fund surpluses and potential stock movements based on news.
  2. Successful investing might involve keeping an eye on companies like Celsius Holdings, Inc, and understanding how stock reactions post-earnings might reflect in the market.
  3. MicroStrategy's unique strategy of accumulating Bitcoin adds an interesting premium value to the company, showcasing how the market reacts to assets like bitcoin and stock correlations.
55 implied HN points β€’ 08 Mar 24
  1. The equity market has shown signs of over-indulgence recently, with increasing enthusiasm and unbridled momentum.
  2. Market worry has shifted from lack of enthusiasm to lack of disbelief, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current bull run.
  3. The macroeconomic resilience is attributed to a balance between big fiscal policies, monetary tightening, and strong balance sheets post-pandemic.
81 implied HN points β€’ 16 Feb 24
  1. The market has been experiencing significant growth, especially in sectors like Artificial Intelligence and biotech, leading to exponential value increases in certain stocks.
  2. Despite positive economic indicators and accommodative policies, there are some cautionary signals like delays in rate cuts and unexpected inflation data that may impact the stock market.
  3. Investors should remain aware and prepared for the potential scenarios of inflation re-acceleration and its impact on the market.
43 implied HN points β€’ 15 Mar 24
  1. There has been a resurgence of interest in the medical potential of psychedelics, with ongoing research and clinical trials exploring their efficacy in treating mental health conditions.
  2. Despite the challenges and market fluctuations, there is increasing regulatory support for psychedelic drug trials, potentially leading to FDA approvals and breakthrough therapy designations for conditions like PTSD.
  3. Psychedelic treatments involve controlled drug administration in conjunction with therapy, aiming to address the root causes of mental health disorders by stimulating new perspectives and thought patterns.
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89 implied HN points β€’ 02 Feb 24
  1. Understanding monetary plumbing is important for analyzing financial markets.
  2. Recognizing the directional flow of liquidity in or out of the financial system is key.
  3. Having a sense of the size and direction of monetary flows can provide valuable insight with minimal effort.
47 implied HN points β€’ 23 Feb 24
  1. Capital One is acquiring Discover Financial Services, creating the largest vertically integrated card provider and the sixth largest U.S. bank by deposits.
  2. Both Capital One and Discover have seen a rise in bad credit among their subprime borrowers in the past two years.
  3. Consumer credit quality has been deteriorating sharply as pandemic savings decrease, interest rates rise, but consumer spending remains high.
60 implied HN points β€’ 26 Jan 24
  1. China's economic growth was heavily reliant on property development and infrastructure, funded by the massive expansion of credit.
  2. The shift in Chinese government policy towards reforming the property sector and debt markets led to a significant impact on the economy.
  3. The Chinese financial system faced the risk of a crisis due to the extensive exposure to property debt and potential credit losses.
179 implied HN points β€’ 17 Mar 23
  1. The Federal Reserve struggled with liquidity tightening, leading to emergency measures and a new financial crisis.
  2. Understanding the monetary plumbing system is crucial to comprehending the impact of Quantitative Tightening (QT) on the banking sector.
  3. Quantitative Tightening (QT) may not continue for long, as challenges in the banking sector could be exacerbated without further accommodations from the Federal Reserve.
160 implied HN points β€’ 10 Mar 23
  1. In the mid-2000s, banks faced a significant problem with growing leverage and inadequate cash reserves.
  2. The 2008 financial crisis led to emergency bailouts to address liquidity issues in the banking sector.
  3. While regulations and liquidity injections have reduced the risk of widespread liquidity crises in large U.S. banks, the 'too-big-to-fail' problem persists in the broader financial system.
152 implied HN points β€’ 14 Apr 23
  1. The Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate hikes soon, signaling a shift in monetary policy.
  2. Inflation has been influenced by significant increases in money supply during the pandemic, impacting consumer behavior and economic growth.
  3. Financial stability is a top concern for the Fed, potentially outweighing traditional inflation targets and leading to a pause in rate hikes.
144 implied HN points β€’ 07 Apr 23
  1. Households in the United States have a large majority of their net worth in non-cash assets like stocks and real estate, with cash and bank deposits making up a small portion.
  2. Non-cash asset values are extrapolated based on a small percentage that are traded for cash, similar to estimating the total length of a football field by measuring a small unit.
  3. The financial system's implied market value of non-cash assets is ultimately based on a small portion of cash-for-asset exchanges, emphasizing the importance of understanding how cash moves.
116 implied HN points β€’ 30 Jun 23
  1. The recession that has been expected is delayed, and there are indications that the economy continues to grow.
  2. Inflation is decreasing, and the Federal Reserve aims to maintain this trend through its monetary policy.
  3. The technology sector has seen a resurgence in 2023, particularly in big tech companies and AI developments.
133 implied HN points β€’ 03 Mar 23
  1. The Dot Plot is the Fed's way of showing where they think interest rates will go in the future.
  2. Yield Curve Control is when central banks adjust short-term and long-term rates to tackle inflation and maintain financial stability.
  3. The Fed's Dilemma involves trying to raise rates to tackle inflation while avoiding destabilizing long-duration assets and maintaining financial stability.
123 implied HN points β€’ 31 Mar 23
  1. Disclosure and transparency in financial systems can be beneficial for investors.
  2. In certain situations, ignorance can provide stability and prevent panic.
  3. There is a constant balance between the benefits of transparency and the risks of hidden information in financial systems.
123 implied HN points β€’ 10 Feb 23
  1. Current economic conditions are unique and challenging to predict
  2. Bond market indicates a potential recession, while stocks show growth
  3. Market uncertainty leads to inconsistent rebounds in asset prices
89 implied HN points β€’ 21 Apr 23
  1. The Last Bear Standing has been renewed for Season Two, with more insightful content on finance and economics.
  2. Season One of The Last Bear Standing made accurate predictions, demonstrating the writer's expertise in financial analysis.
  3. For Season Two, access will require a paid subscription priced at $200 annually or $20 per month.
101 implied HN points β€’ 17 Feb 23
  1. Balancing risks and benefits involves trade-offs between conflicting goals.
  2. Monetary expansion during the pandemic led to rapid growth but also increased inflation.
  3. The decision to stimulate demand has resulted in inflation battles and uncertainty about future economic stability.
70 implied HN points β€’ 12 May 23
  1. Both cash liquidity and solvency are crucial for banks. If customers or investors worry about either, they may withdraw funds or sell stock.
  2. Bank liquidity has been fluctuating, impacted by events like the pandemic and quantitative easing/tightening, leading to concerns about insolvency and the need for temporary borrowings.
  3. Deposit fluctuations in banks are tied to the Federal Reserve's actions like quantitative easing and tightening, with large banks experiencing the fastest decline in deposits.
68 implied HN points β€’ 02 Jun 23
  1. The U.S. Treasury has financial strategies in place to address debt ceiling concerns and maintain market liquidity.
  2. The Treasury plans to issue new debt to refill its Treasury General Account (TGA) and may impact bank reserves depending on funding sources.
  3. There is caution regarding the effectiveness of the plan as Treasury auctions are not selective, and market liquidity concerns persist despite RRP usage.