The hottest Monetary Policy Substack posts right now

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How New Zealand invented inflation targeting

The Works in Progress Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. New Zealand was the first country to adopt inflation targeting as a main goal for its central bank. This goal helped to stabilize prices and became a standard practice worldwide.
  2. The change in monetary policy came from political decisions rather than academic consensus. Roger Douglas, the Finance Minister in the 1980s, publicly set clear inflation goals, leading to a new approach in controlling inflation.
  3. Inflation targeting not only worked well in New Zealand but also influenced many other countries to adopt similar strategies. It helped central banks stabilize inflation expectations and aligned their incentives to minimize political interference in economic decisions.

The Costco Gold Indicator

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 74 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The average American's trust in fiscal and monetary policy can be seen through buying gold at Costco.
  2. Public awareness of how central banking works is increasing.
  3. Criticisms and questions about central banking policies are becoming more common and publicly discussed.

Gold Is Back—And So Is Judy Shelton

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Gold prices are rising due to economic and geopolitical concerns, attracting more interest from central banks. This suggests that many countries are starting to value gold again.
  2. Judy Shelton proposes a new kind of bond that would let people redeem their bonds for gold or dollars, giving the public more control over their money. This could help stabilize the economy.
  3. Shelton believes that moving back to a gold standard could improve trust in the financial system and reduce government control over money supply, which many people see as a good thing.

Inflation is Over

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Inflation may have ended, as data shows a decline in prices over the past months.
  2. Removing the shelter component from inflation measurements may lead to a more accurate CPI.
  3. Addressing the housing supply issue could resolve misconceptions around monetary policy and inflation.
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Can Bitcoin Save The U.S. Dollar?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 01 Dec 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Some politicians suggest creating a Bitcoin reserve for the US, thinking it could help the dollar's value and stability. They believe having Bitcoin might make the US economy stronger.
  2. Having reserve assets like Bitcoin is not as necessary for the US dollar, which is already powerful globally. The dollar doesn't need extra support from things like Bitcoin because it's already widely used.
  3. Adding Bitcoin to the US reserve wouldn’t really help the dollar; it might just serve to enrich some investors. The government should focus on what truly supports the economy, not on trendy assets.

Grading the Trade

The Last Bear Standing • 101 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Balancing risks and benefits involves trade-offs between conflicting goals.
  2. Monetary expansion during the pandemic led to rapid growth but also increased inflation.
  3. The decision to stimulate demand has resulted in inflation battles and uncertainty about future economic stability.

Cannibal Spirits

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Markets can go both up and down, which is a natural part of freedom in trading. It's important to understand that fluctuations are normal.
  2. The term 'animal spirits' is often used to explain market behavior, but many believe it's overused and doesn't accurately describe what's really happening.
  3. There's a perception that the financial system is rigged, relying heavily on inflation and debt, which can create skepticism about the true state of the markets.

The Bear is Back!

The Last Bear Standing • 89 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Last Bear Standing has been renewed for Season Two, with more insightful content on finance and economics.
  2. Season One of The Last Bear Standing made accurate predictions, demonstrating the writer's expertise in financial analysis.
  3. For Season Two, access will require a paid subscription priced at $200 annually or $20 per month.

The Keynesian Liquidity Trap Fable

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. People often think the economy fails because consumers save too much and spend too little. But saving isn't always bad; it can help strengthen the economy if done right.
  2. When banks lower interest rates to encourage spending, it sometimes backfires. Instead of spending, people might just save more, leading to a 'liquidity trap' where money isn't flowing in the economy.
  3. Expanding the money supply might make it seem like the economy is growing at first, but if savings decline due to previous bad policies, this can actually hurt the economy in the long run.

March 2024 Fed Meeting Preview

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Consider using NGDP growth to communicate monetary policy instead of targeting inflation with short term interest rates.
  2. The yield curve's dynamics indicate recessionary signals and potential rate cuts by the Fed.
  3. Economic growth predictions for 2024 suggest low inflation, steady GDP growth, and a possible decrease in target rates by the Fed.

Gold Surpasses $2900 Per Ounce

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Gold prices hit a new record, surpassing $2,900 per ounce, largely due to economic uncertainty and concerns about inflation. This has made gold an attractive option for many investors.
  2. Trade tensions between the US and China, along with tariffs on steel and aluminum, have pushed global capital towards gold as a safe investment. Countries like China are also building their gold reserves, which supports higher prices.
  3. Despite rising interest rates normally being bad for gold, the current economic landscape and investor fears about inflation are keeping demand strong. Many people see gold as a way to protect their wealth in uncertain times.

Trump’s Victory Has "Delayed The Fiscal Meltdown Scenario"...For Now

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 15 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The stock market is doing well, but gold, silver, and Bitcoin are also gaining value. This shows that investors are already worried about future inflation.
  2. Gold and Bitcoin are acting as warning signs for money printing and potential economic trouble. They have seen significant growth compared to traditional U.S. Treasury bonds.
  3. There is a chance the Federal Reserve will have to resort to methods like quantitative easing again, which means they could start printing more money to stabilize the economy. This could lead to further increases in the value of sound money assets.

The Death of Silicon Valley Bank

Apricitas Economics • 81 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Silicon Valley Bank faced severe financial challenges, leading to its voluntary liquidation.
  2. The bank's unique customer base and large exposure to long-term assets were key factors in its downfall.
  3. The failure of SVB highlights broader concerns about financial stability and the impact on the tech industry.

The Most Important New Disinflation Indicator

Apricitas Economics • 63 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The New Tenant Repeat Rent Index provides a more accurate measure of current housing market conditions and predicts future disinflation.
  2. Housing inflation is currently the main driving force behind overall inflation, with non-housing inflation remaining relatively stable.
  3. The 'speed limit' theory of inflation suggests that the growth rate of the labor market, rather than its level, is a key determinant of rent inflation and overall price stability.

Europe's second 'China shock' is blessing in disguise

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Cheap Chinese exports are once again putting heavy competitive pressure on European manufacturers, repeating a shock similar to two decades ago.
  2. The flood of lower-priced imports is pushing down consumer prices and easing inflationary pressures across Europe.
  3. That disinflation gives the European Central Bank more leeway to cut interest rates in 2026, potentially easing financial conditions and supporting growth.

Corporate investment after rate cuts

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. A one percentage-point cut in policy rates typically raises corporate investment by about 7% over the following two years, though the average masks big differences across firms.
  2. Firms that build long-lived assets (real estate, utilities, healthcare) react much more to rate cuts than companies with short-lived assets like tech and media.
  3. Many companies still won’t invest after rate cuts because of weak opportunities, labour shortages, or a need for cash, so monetary policy works slowly and depends on business confidence — which governments and media can help amplify or undermine.

Fed may generate sugar rush in 2026

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 25 Nov 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed could cut interest rates much more aggressively in 2026 than markets currently expect, partly because of political pressure to ease quickly.
  2. The central bank’s stance has swung from dovish to hawkish and back again, which has left investors unsure about the future path of policy.
  3. If big cuts happen, they could trigger a short-lived "sugar rush" — a rapid but temporary boost to growth and markets in 2026.

Pesky Inflation

The Transcript • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Inflation is showing resilience similar to consumers, creating challenges for the Fed.
  2. This poses a problem for the Fed's goal of reaching 2% inflation.
  3. The capital markets are affected as they expected the end of tighter monetary policies.

The Catalyst That Could 'Standardize' Bitcoin

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Bitcoin adoption could be accelerated through a major financial crisis where people seek an exit ramp from the traditional financial system.
  2. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin allows for success to be tied to its growth, empowering individuals who are tired of traditional financial institutions.
  3. Bitcoin offers a chance for the public to break the cycle of bearing the cost of financial failures by opting out of the current system and embracing digital freedom.

Is Inflation In 2024 Fueled By Supply Or Demand?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 11 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Inflation in 2024 could be caused by supply issues, like hurricanes and strikes, which disrupt the availability of goods and services.
  2. Much of the high inflation seen after the pandemic was actually driven by demand rather than just supply problems.
  3. As supply conditions improve, inflation rates might decrease, but currently, tighter monetary policy and slowed spending suggest that inflation could remain high.

Bitvana or the bitcaust

Gray Mirror • 51 implied HN points • 22 Mar 23
🔮 Crypto Monetary Policy
  1. Belief in financial systems is crucial for their stability - don't always trust the doomsayers predicting collapse.
  2. Understanding the true nature of inflation and the power of the Fed in the financial system provides insight into market dynamics.
  3. Capital flight to assets like Bitcoin can occur due to factors like dilution, destruction, and compression - but the end game must be stability to be effective.

Core Inflation is (Finally) Cooling

Apricitas Economics • 46 implied HN points • 13 May 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Core inflation is cooling, signaling a potential slowdown in inflationary pressure.
  2. Data shows a decline in core services inflation and rent prices, indicating progress in curbing inflation.
  3. Businesses and markets expect inflation to remain above 2% in the near future, but long-run inflation expectations are stable.

Was the Continental Dollar an Early Failure with Fiat Money?

Economic Forces • 4 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Continental dollar was created to fund the Revolutionary War, but it lost value quickly. This happened because there were too many of them and not enough trust in their worth.
  2. The currency was designed like a bond, meaning it wasn't just regular money meant for buying things, but more like an IOU that was supposed to be repaid later.
  3. The failure of the Continental dollar teaches us that for any money system to work, people need to believe in its value and the promise to redeem it; if that trust is lost, the money collapses.

[Re-post] When A Dollar Isn't a Dollar

Economic Forces • 4 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Banks hold physical money to back the digital dollars they create, ensuring people can get their money when they want it.
  2. A new plan suggests issuing digital dollars without holding any real money, relying instead on supply and demand to keep their value steady.
  3. However, if people stop trusting these digital dollars or start selling them, their value can drop quickly, as seen when a stablecoin recently lost its peg to the dollar.

Investing Update: Don't Forget This Chart

Spilled Coffee • 12 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The S&P 500 has had a strong performance this year, with 45 new all-time highs and the best start since 2000. This means the market is doing really well right now.
  2. Despite the market's successes, only 54% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 20-day moving average. This is a bit low and worth keeping an eye on.
  3. With recent jobless claims rising more than expected, it could influence the Fed's decisions on interest rates. Many experts still believe there will be a rate cut soon.

The Fed Sees a Softer, Higher Landing

Apricitas Economics • 31 implied HN points • 21 Sep 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed is projecting a softer landing without the need for a recession to control inflation.
  2. There is less uncertainty in FOMC forecasts, and they anticipate higher GDP growth and slightly higher inflation.
  3. There are disagreements within the FOMC on the duration and extent of keeping interest rates high, with some seeing rates potentially staying permanently higher.

How the Banking System Changed Post-SVB

Apricitas Economics • 32 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the American banking industry is adapting by relying less on uninsured deposits and more on alternative funding methods like borrowings.
  2. Deposits have restabilized post-SVB crisis, but banks are facing challenges with tight lending standards due to renewed economic pessimism and liquidity concerns.
  3. Banks are cautiously navigating post-SVB crisis by reducing reliance on uninsured deposits, managing securities losses, and addressing liquidity worries amid tighter monetary policy.