The hottest Public Opinion Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

Once More Telling People That They Should Take Nate Silver for Their Guru on Questions in His Lane

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 222 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Nate Silver is really good at understanding statistics and probabilities, so it's smart to listen to him when it comes to polls and predictions about elections.
  2. Billionaires don't know more about elections than anyone else; they often act based on their own interests and fears, not on secret insights.
  3. When looking at elections, focus on the polls instead of billionaires' actions. Polls can give us a clearer picture of what might happen, even if they're not perfect.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: Misinformation Decided the U.S. Election

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 207 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Many Trump supporters are good-hearted people who genuinely worry about the country's direction. They voted for him not out of hate, but because they care.
  2. There is a serious problem when a large portion of the public prefers misinformation. It makes it hard for democracy to thrive if people choose not to believe the facts.
  3. Democrats may struggle to connect with those who need to hear their messages. Republicans are encouraged to take responsibility in educating their supporters about the truth.

"The Chinese Government Will Lie to You!" said the U.S. Government the Day It Was Caught Lying to Us.

JoeWrote • 165 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The ceasefire in Gaza shows what really happened during the conflict. Now that fighting has stopped, more people can report the true impact on civilians.
  2. The U.S. government and media have misled the public about the reasons behind the ceasefire and the crisis in Gaza. Many now see this as part of a larger pattern of dishonesty.
  3. Concerns over apps like TikTok highlight a divide in perception about security and media control. Some people believe manipulation is happening on both sides, questioning why they should fear one over the other.

Q&A: Genocide in Gaza, Political Assassinations in America and War With Iran (Tomorrow, 7pm ET)

The Chris Hedges Report • 74 implied HN points • 15 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. There will be a live Q&A discussing important topics like the situation in Gaza and the potential war with Iran. It's happening tomorrow at 7pm ET.
  2. People can ask questions during the livestream on YouTube or X, but you need to be a paid subscriber to post questions on the Substack.
  3. If you miss the live stream, you can still watch it later on all platforms once it's done.

The Phantom of Polarisation

Wrong Side of History • 208 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. People might not actually disagree on politics as much as they seem. It often feels more like a divide between groups than real differences in beliefs.
  2. Political identity can become more important than individual views. Once people identify strongly with a party, their specific opinions might not matter as much.
  3. Understanding tribalism helps explain why some conflicts are labeled as religious or political when they may really be more about group identity.
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Why tech went MAGA

Startup Strategies • 142 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The relationship between technocrats and the Democratic party has changed. They used to work together but are now distant.
  2. Tech leaders have shifted their focus and support towards MAGA, which reflects a change in political allegiance.
  3. The past optimism in tech, seen during the Dot-Com boom, is contrasted by current sentiments of mistrust and division in the industry.

The Other Girl in Red

Ijtihad • 85 implied HN points • 20 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Silence from friends and media about important issues can support wrongdoing. People often ignore or justify atrocities, showing a troubling bias about which lives matter.
  2. The media's job is to hold power accountable, but many outlets now prioritize access to powerful figures over honest reporting. This damages democracy and public trust.
  3. It's essential to question what news is leaving out. With increasing consolidation in media, the range of acceptable opinions shrinks, limiting open discussions about complex issues.

Why I’m staying on Twitter/X

The Path Not Taken • 198 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Some people are leaving Twitter/X because they are unhappy with Elon Musk's influence, especially regarding politics. Many worry about the site's changes and direction.
  2. Staying on the platform allows users to engage with its diverse community, which has existed even before Musk. There's a belief that leaving could give up the chance to shape conversations that happen there.
  3. Critics of Musk should be careful not to isolate themselves. A lot of people still use Twitter/X for non-political content, and staying might help keep progressive voices active on the platform.

Zelensky left stranded; Bill Clinton's bigotry

Aaron Mate • 208 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Zelensky is upset because his request for Tomahawk missiles was leaked by the White House. This has made him feel unsupported in a tough situation.
  2. Bill Clinton is showing his support for Israel, even in the face of widespread criticism about the violence against Palestinians. This highlights his controversial stance on the matter.
  3. These events reflect ongoing tensions in international relations and how leaders respond to them, making it clear that political alliances can have serious consequences.

Zombie Traffic Light: The German government teeters once again on the brink of collapse, but in truth it is already dead

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 205 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The German government, known as the 'traffic light' coalition, is struggling and facing widespread disapproval from the public. Many people feel that the government has no clear plans to address current crises.
  2. The leading parties in the coalition—the SPD, FDP, and Greens—are failing to connect with their supporters and are engaged in internal conflicts that are worsening their situation.
  3. There is a strong possibility of new elections happening soon, as the coalition's issues might lead to a significant shift in power away from the current government.

Dispatches from the Group Chats Vol 2

Erik Torenberg's Thoughts • 169 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. There is a complicated relationship between OpenAI and Elon Musk, where both have valid points about control and contributions. It's messy, especially with competition in the AI field.
  2. The dockworkers hold a lot of power and influence because a strike would negatively impact everyone. Automation's slow progress complicates the situation.
  3. Concerns about inequality are rising, and this could lead to more radical ideas among young people who feel stuck and frustrated. The current system needs to be changed to help them thrive.

The good news is that the market thinks Trump is full of shit

Alex's Personal Blog • 197 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. There has been a noticeable shift in voting patterns, with Trump gaining support from younger and more diverse voters compared to previous elections.
  2. The stock market shows optimism for business growth under a Trump presidency, particularly in finance and tech, but there are concerns about his potential policies on tariffs and immigration.
  3. Many people fear negative impacts on social issues, international relations, and climate policy with Trump back in office, signaling uncertain times ahead.

The guardrails are off

Men Yell at Me • 200 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Many Americans are really stressed about the upcoming election. It's normal to feel anxious about big events that could affect our lives.
  2. Articles often suggest easy fixes like turning off the news, but sometimes that isn't enough. It's valid to feel scared about the future of democracy.
  3. Facing tough realities is part of being human. It's okay to acknowledge fear and uncertainty instead of pretending everything is fine.

The Jerk Store Called...

Unpopular Front • 146 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The writer feels that the other person's critiques show a consistent pattern of viewing the world in terms of superficial character judgments. They argue this perspective is overly harsh and lacking depth.
  2. There is a belief that John’s January 6th piece was not his best work, and while he acknowledges that criticism is valid, he insists that its serious implications are often overlooked.
  3. The writer expresses disappointment in the response to January 6th, feeling there was a missed opportunity for a strong public defense of democracy that could have led to meaningful reforms.

First Principles of Fiscal Policy, with Some of Their Practical Applications

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 123 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The Federal Reserve's approach in the 2020s, which involved acting quickly, turned out to be effective. Many people are thankful for the leadership during this time.
  2. Inflation in the early 2020s might not have been bad because it helped avoid a deeper recession and led to a better economy in some ways.
  3. Voters who understood the economy generally supported Democrats, while those who were confused tended to back Republicans. This shows how informed opinions can influence political choices.

Epstein files: how arguments really make people change political side

Optimally Irrational • 48 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. People often don't change their political beliefs through arguments; they usually just stick to the beliefs of their social groups. This shows how our decisions can be influenced more by who we're around than by facts or logic.
  2. Even when faced with strong evidence against their views, people tend to defend their original opinions. This is because they want to support their group's narrative rather than accept new information.
  3. Political arguments can sometimes lead to change, but only if the incentives for being honest and thoughtful outweigh the pressures to conform with one's group. Finding a balance between loyalty and truth is key for real discussions.

Commentator

Castalia • 139 implied HN points • 28 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Prigozhin's mutiny showed that he overstepped and is now out of the game. Putin might actually benefit from this by seeing Wagner reintegrated into the army without the chaos.
  2. The lab leak theory about COVID's origin is getting more attention, with new evidence suggesting possible links to a lab in Wuhan. However, discussions around it are still complicated and often shaky.
  3. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s campaign is shaking things up, and there's a push in media to avoid confronting his controversial views. This could backfire and attract more interest in his candidacy.

Panic in the Israel Lobby

John’s Substack • 17 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Russia is currently winning the war against Ukraine with effective strategies. Ukraine is facing growing problems that seem very hard to resolve.
  2. The discussion included distressing topics, such as society's acceptance of violence in Israel against Palestinians, which raised serious moral questions.
  3. There's a struggle within the Israel Lobby to manage negative perceptions of Israel, especially related to public figures like Tucker Carlson, who criticize their actions.

Lock Him Up

Diane Francis • 439 implied HN points • 16 Jun 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The January 6 hearings have high viewership, but political opinions aren't changing much. Some believe the hearings could lead prosecutors to charge Trump with serious crimes.
  2. Trump's own advisers, including his Attorney General, testified that claims of election fraud were false. This suggests he knew he was lying, which could lead to criminal charges.
  3. There is a bigger issue of division in society that may allow public figures to avoid accountability. Unlike the past, many see any legal action against Trump as just more political drama.

Regime Change Or Another Shit-Show?

The Weekly Dish • 140 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The possibility of a regime change can lead to uncertainty about the future. Many people worry that changes in leadership might not really result in improvement.
  2. Past experiences suggest that political changes can sometimes lead to chaos rather than stability. It's important to be cautious about expecting positive outcomes.
  3. Looking ahead, it's reasonable to expect that challenges will continue, regardless of who is in charge. People may feel anxious about what could happen next.

What Game Are We Playing?

Data: Made Not Found (by danah) • 127 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The article discusses different ways to understand the current political climate in the U.S. using concepts like 'Jenga Politics' and 'Arson'.
  2. It examines Facebook's new policies, suggesting they are more about control than free speech.
  3. The author encourages readers to explore these ideas and to join her on a different platform for more content.

New Polling Data Confirms Musk Effect on Support for Alternative für Deutschland

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 149 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is gaining support, reaching 21.5% in recent polls, which is their highest in a year. This suggests they might have a stronger presence in upcoming elections.
  2. A significant number of voters, even from various parties, believe that the AfD is Germany's last hope, indicating a shift in public sentiment. This includes some surprising support from traditional voters like those in the Greens and Social Democrats.
  3. The outcome of the elections could depend on minor parties like Die Linke, as their performance can affect the overall balance of power. If they win certain districts, it would complicate things for larger parties trying to form a coalition.

O Shocks

Dr. Pippa's Pen & Podcast • 51 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. We're living in a time of big surprises that challenge what we believe to be true. These 'O Shocks' make many people rethink their understanding of reality.
  2. Many major news stories and scandals seem to disappear just as quickly as they appear. This creates confusion about what is really happening behind the scenes in our governments and institutions.
  3. Recent events show that things we thought were settled, like scientific truths and political narratives, are being questioned. This can make it hard for people to trust what they know.

The Polling Cave

Thinking about... • 180 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Polls can create a false sense of reality during elections. They focus mainly on candidates instead of the important policies that affect our lives.
  2. The media often exaggerates the significance of polls, making us feel anxious about close races. In reality, polls just indicate possibilities, not certainties.
  3. It's important to engage with the real world and vote, rather than getting stuck in the 'polling cave.' Our actions can lead to meaningful change outside of the shadows created by polls.

The Fight

The Ruffian • 116 implied HN points • 03 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Moral outrage is sometimes necessary and ignoring it can feel wrong. It's not always smart to be overly sophisticated about serious issues.
  2. There are often simple truths that are hard to accept, but dismissing them as just tough love is misguided.
  3. It’s important to engage genuinely with significant events rather than adopt a cynical or indifferent approach. Authenticity matters in discussions about serious topics.

Decoding a Strange Gallup Poll

I Might Be Wrong • 4 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. A growing share of Americans — especially young people — say they are political independents.
  2. Saying you’re "independent" can be superficial: many people who pick that label still lean toward one party and may be signaling image more than true neutrality.
  3. The rise in independents doesn’t automatically mean there’s appetite for a centrist party, but it does make Democrats’ choice to move center or left strategically consequential for future outcomes.

The Good News is Fascists Always Fail

JoeWrote • 118 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Fascism is a reactionary ideology that often seeks to return to a past that never really existed. This means it usually fails because it can't truly solve today's problems.
  2. Politicians like Trump might get attention by blaming others for issues, but they struggle to deliver real solutions once in power. Their promises often lead to disappointment among supporters.
  3. Despite the fear around fascist movements, they can ultimately collapse because they don't offer genuine plans for the future. People are beginning to recognize when their needs aren't being met.

Welcome to the cover-up for the cover-up

Unreported Truths • 77 implied HN points • 19 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Biden recently announced having prostate cancer that has spread, raising concerns about the seriousness of his health. This announcement comes amidst scrutiny of his mental fitness for office.
  2. There are questions about why Biden, being an elderly president with health risks, may not have had routine cancer screenings. His health choices have sparked discussions about medical responsibilities for those in high positions.
  3. People are increasingly skeptical of how the media handles Biden's health issues. Many are starting to push back against narratives that seem to downplay concerns about his declining health or to silence legitimate questions.

EXCLUSIVE: Donald Trump Is Indisputably the Co-Author of the Israeli War Against Iran—and His Iran Plot is Easily the Most Significant Betrayal of His MAGA Voters Yet

Proof • 60 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Donald Trump is believed to have played a role in planning the current war in Iran. This goes against his supporters' views of avoiding new foreign conflicts.
  2. Many supporters of Trump, known as MAGA voters, feel betrayed by his actions regarding foreign wars. They expected him to prioritize not getting involved in such conflicts.
  3. The situation raises questions about trust and loyalty among Trump's voter base, as the evidence suggests he has contradicted their core beliefs.

What the Florida "Anti-LGBT" Laws Actually Do

Handwaving Freakoutery • 622 implied HN points • 12 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The Florida laws have minimal impact on adults and gay men/lesbians, focusing more on transgender minors and gender-segregated spaces.
  2. Media portrayal of these laws as 'anti-LGBT' lacks accuracy and may lead to misconceptions.
  3. Public opinion on the measures outlined in the laws shows varying levels of support, indicating a disconnect between media perceptions and public views.

Idiocracy and the Electrolytes of the Masses

American Dreaming • 169 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Donald Trump's re-election could cause big changes in Europe, especially with NATO and relationships with Russia. Countries may need to boost their defenses if they can't rely on the US.
  2. There are worries Trump might change laws about presidential terms, which could allow him to hold on to power longer. This would be a big move away from democratic traditions.
  3. Many American voters seem more focused on cheap prices than moral issues, which might explain why they support Trump despite his past actions. It shows a disconnect between civic responsibility and consumer desires.

New Zealand’s year of gender ideology in 2022

A B’Old Woman • 239 implied HN points • 05 Jan 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. In 2022, New Zealand adopted laws related to gender identity, including the Conversion Practices Prohibition Legislation, which makes it illegal to change or suppress someone's gender identity or sexual orientation.
  2. There were significant debates and actions around gender identity in public spaces and schools, with many parents expressing concerns about the influence of gender ideology on children's education.
  3. Organizations and individuals pushed back against perceived gender ideology in sports, education, and healthcare, leading to a complex conversation about the rights of transgender individuals and the protection of women and children.

Liberal anguish over Trump was never going to be a sustainable electoral strategy

Michael Tracey • 176 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Liberal anger toward Trump isn’t a strong enough reason for people to vote against him in elections. Many voters want to hear more about policies and solutions, not just negativity.
  2. Younger voters often see Trump as just another celebrity and are less affected by the drama that surrounds him. They’re more focused on real issues like the economy and less on political arguments.
  3. Democrats need to connect better with everyday voters rather than relying on elite political views. Many people care more about tangible issues than abstract ideas.

Things Can Always Get Worse

OK Doomer • 168 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Things can always get worse, even when it feels like they can't. There is often a deeper problem beneath the surface.
  2. Political actions and public opinions can often lead to more confusion and issues, especially when important health topics are mishandled.
  3. There is a concerning trend where misinformation and extreme ideas are gaining traction, which can create panic and conflict on important health matters.

"The Moment That Defined 2024"?

Michael Tracey • 145 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Gavin Newsom defended Joe Biden's ability to control nuclear codes at age 86, highlighting concerns about the practicality of such power in old age.
  2. The attempted assassination of Trump was dramatic but may not have a big impact on politics; it feels more random than ideologically driven.
  3. Biden's withdrawal from a certain situation stands out in 2024 as a significant moment that reflects the unique challenges of today's political climate.

The Dumb Luck Of Donald Trump

The Weekly Dish • 144 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Russia's economy is suffering a lot right now, which could lead to a better situation for Ukraine.
  2. There is a conversation happening about how to negotiate a more favorable deal for Ukraine during this crisis.
  3. Donald Trump's actions might be seen as fortunate for some political strategies, despite the complicated circumstances.

THE END FOR ZELENSKY?

Seymour Hersh • 48 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Ukrainian General Valerii Zaluzhnyi is seen as a strong candidate to replace President Zelensky after a stalemate in the war with Russia.
  2. There is speculation that the U.S. may push for Zelensky to leave office, potentially leading to his exile or forced removal.
  3. Many believe the ongoing conflict with Russia needs to be resolved soon to make room for a peace settlement.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-06 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 130 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Educational approaches should blend economic theories with historical context. This helps students grasp how past events shape current economic systems.
  2. To tackle gender disparities in birth rates, changing perceptions about motherhood and fatherhood is essential. Men need to support women more in their roles both at work and home.
  3. Inflation isn't solely linked to government spending; the Federal Reserve plays a significant role in managing it. Digital and global economic shifts complicate how we analyze these financial factors.

Rise of the Warrior Cop, 10 years on

The Watch • 557 implied HN points • 14 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The Obama administration was the first to advocate for police reform, leading to some positive changes in American policing.
  2. There has been a significant shift in public opinion towards police reform following events like the George Floyd protests.
  3. Despite progress in some cities, there are still challenges with toxic police culture and resistance to reform in certain areas and political factions.

Saturday Commentary and Review #179

Fisted by Foucault • 161 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Trump's second term will face challenges due to the need for compromise in US politics and the divided support within the GOP. Expectation management is crucial because many factors could limit his ambitious plans.
  2. The discussion around liberalism is shifting, with some arguing that Trump represents a return to classic liberalism, while others believe his policies disrupt traditional liberal values. This highlights the changing definitions of liberal democracy.
  3. Europe is feeling the pressure from US economic policies, as countries like Germany struggle with the effects of competition and trade dynamics. The relationship between US demands and European economies is becoming increasingly strained.