Optimally Irrational

Optimally Irrational explores the complexities of human behavior, societal functioning, and decision-making through a lens of game theory, psychology, and economics. It examines the underpinnings of social norms, biases, strategic interactions, and the impacts of these factors on individual and collective actions in various contexts including social media, organizational behavior, and international conflicts.

Game Theory Psychological Biases Economics and Market Dynamics Social Norms and Behaviors Organizational Behavior International Relations Cognitive Psychology Social Media Dynamics

The hottest Substack posts of Optimally Irrational

And their main takeaways

The game theory of seduction and marriage... with Jane Austen

38 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture Literature Psychology Romance Interactions Social norms
  1. Finding a romantic partner can be complex, involving significant time, effort, and thought due to the high stakes involved in love and seduction.
  2. In Jane Austen's novels, the economic considerations of marriage underscore the immense importance of women's choices in selecting a partner.
  3. Navigating romantic interactions involves understanding higher-order beliefs and carefully managing ambiguity, a key aspect seen across different time periods in the courtship process.

The importance of a good reputation

17 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
🔬 Science Social Interactions Game Theory Evolutionary biology Psychology Cooperation
  1. Reputation is like a second self that guides our actions, influencing how others perceive and interact with us.
  2. People can build a good reputation by consistently displaying cooperative and trustworthy behavior over time.
  3. While reputation takes time to build up, it can be lost quickly, emphasizing the importance of maintaining trust and integrity in social interactions.

Beyond Borders: The Stakes in Ukraine

14 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Conflict International Order Reputation Global impact
  1. Unconditional calls for peace may backfire, as sometimes showing resolve to fight is essential for achieving peace in international conflicts.
  2. Ignoring small acts of aggression can embolden aggressors, emphasizing the importance of drawing clear red lines and upholding them to deter further escalation.
  3. The invasion of Ukraine goes beyond borders, challenging the global order; supporting Ukraine is not just about the country itself but defending the principles of the international system.

Improving the marketplace of ideas: a reasoned defence of freedom of speech

21 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
  1. Ideas compete in a marketplace where the best ones should prevail, but this doesn't always happen.
  2. Freedom of speech is crucial for allowing better ideas to be selected and fostering critical thinking.
  3. Overprotection of speech can hinder intellectual growth, and limitations on ideas can impact how society functions.
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The marketplace of rationalisations

18 implied HN points • 07 Dec 23
🚌 Education Media influence Information Consumption Political Bias Consumer behavior
  1. Consumers shape the features of the modern public sphere by driving the demand for biased information.
  2. Providers of rationalisations compete on quality in a marketplace where reputation plays a crucial role.
  3. Market dynamics in the information sphere highlight agglomeration economies, the influence of demand on supply, and the risk of audience capture.

Strategically delusional

15 implied HN points • 25 Oct 23
🔬 Science Cognitive Biases Psychology Deception Evolutionary biology Communication
  1. Many people tend to overestimate their abilities and standing relative to others because they derive pleasure from thinking they are better than they actually are.
  2. Overconfidence can lead to costly mistakes in the real world, even though it might offer benefits in social interactions where it can influence others' behaviors.
  3. Self-deception, fueled by the belief in our own lies, may help us deceive others more effectively, especially in situations where credibility is crucial.

How to improve social media - Part I

4 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Social media Incentives Consensus Algorithms
  1. Improving social media platforms can lead to more constructive and reasoned discussions by favoring consensual views
  2. Social media is like a game of status where users compete for social recognition through likes and reposts
  3. Different social media platforms have unique cultures of interaction shaped by social norms which influence user behavior

How to improve social media - Part II

3 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Algorithms Social media Networks Incentives
  1. Content creation on social media platforms can be improved by incentivizing users to produce better quality content that appeals broadly across partisan lines.
  2. Implementing systems like upvoting and downvoting mechanisms can help reduce extreme and polarizing content on social media platforms.
  3. Platforms can consider algorithms that prioritize consensual content and users' contributions from diverse perspectives to enhance the quality of information presented.

Why you are frustrated by your organisation

13 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
💼 Business Management Corporate culture Ethics Workplace dynamics Incentives
  1. Beneath the overly positive facade of organizations, there's often a reality of dysfunction and disillusionment.
  2. The principal-agent problem highlights the conflict of interests between individuals and the organization's goals, leading to misaligned incentives.
  3. Managers can prioritize personal gains, reputation, and short-term benefits over the organization's success, perpetuating issues like hyperactivity and micromanagement.

Time for Some Game Theory

10 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
🚌 Education Game Theory
  1. Game theory deciphers the mechanisms behind strategic interactions.
  2. Uncertainty in social interactions leads to strategic uncertainty.
  3. Nash equilibrium is a key concept in game theory, explaining how rational players make decisions.

Reassessing the Confirmation Bias

11 implied HN points • 14 Jun 23
🚌 Education Psychology Behavior Bias Decision-making
  1. Confirmation bias is a widely acknowledged cognitive bias where we tend to seek information that supports our existing beliefs.
  2. In today's world of political polarization, confirmation bias contributes to escalating tensions as people isolate themselves in echo chambers.
  3. Seeking confirmatory information aligns with an optimal information acquisition strategy, especially when considering costs and efficiency.

Anyone for Tennis... and Game Theory?

7 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
🔬 Science Game Theory Momentum
  1. Game theory helps explain behavior in real-world contexts like tennis
  2. Professional tennis players strategically mix their serves to remain unpredictable
  3. Players strategically allocate effort based on the importance of points, sets, and matches

Intermezzo: How much can you trust fancy behavioural findings?

8 implied HN points • 20 Jun 23
🔬 Science
  1. A new scandal in behavioural research raises questions about the trustworthiness of fancy findings.
  2. Questionable research practices, such as selective data reporting, are prevalent in the field of psychology and behavioural economics.
  3. Adopting new research rules, like pre-registration of studies, can help prevent questionable research practices and improve the credibility of findings in behavioural research.

What side are you on?

2 HN points • 23 Nov 23
📖 Philosophy
  1. Debates often revolve around group affiliations rather than logical reasoning.
  2. Our minds are wired to prioritize allegiance to groups over evaluating arguments objectively.
  3. People are more likely to accept arguments that align with their group's views, showing the influence of coalitional psychology.

Social norms as rules of social games

3 HN points • 23 Aug 23
🔬 Science Social norms Game Theory Sociology
  1. Social norms are like rules in social games, influencing behavior through rewards and punishments.
  2. Social norms can be seen as equilibrium points in social interactions, facilitating coordination and shared expectations.
  3. Changing social norms requires collective shifts in expectations and behaviors, often led by influential individuals and role models.

The game theoretical foundations of morality

4 implied HN points • 15 May 23
🔬 Science Game Theory Morality Behavior Evolution Cooperation
  1. Game theory shows that cooperation can be rational even in self-interested settings like the Prisoner's Dilemma.
  2. The Folk Theorem explains how sustained cooperation can emerge in repeated interactions through strategies like tit-for-tat.
  3. Simple and intuitive reciprocity-based strategies like tit-for-tat can be successful in promoting cooperation and may underlie our moral intuitions.

Not Another Bias!

1 HN point • 26 May 23
🔬 Science Behavioral Economics Game Theory
  1. There is a renewed interest in understanding the adaptive explanations for human behavior, rather than labeling every cognitive bias as a flaw.
  2. The rationality wars have highlighted different perspectives on human decision-making, emphasizing heuristics and adaptive processes.
  3. Advancements in cognitive neuroscience and economic theory are shedding new light on biases, showing them as potential solutions to informational constraints.