The hottest Trade Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Who friendshores and why?

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 17 Jul 25
💼 Business Trade
  1. Friendshoring is when companies move their supply chains to friendlier nations due to political changes. This shift in focus has become more important since recent changes in US politics.
  2. The decision to friendshore often depends on the political views of a company's CEO. Those aligned with the ruling party are more likely to drop suppliers from adversarial countries.
  3. Changing suppliers for friendshoring doesn’t seem to add value to a company's shares. Sometimes, costs go up or returns don’t change, which can make the move less beneficial.

Chinese V. Premier He Lifeng's message for foreign investors

Beijing Channel • 3 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💼 Business Trade
  1. China is actively inviting foreign investors by promoting reforms and a clearer business environment. They're saying that it's a good time for businesses to cooperate and invest in China.
  2. Vice Premier He Lifeng has been meeting regularly with international business leaders. This shows that China is really focusing on its economic growth and wants to strengthen ties with foreign companies.
  3. China aims to ease market access and further open its financial sector to attract more foreign businesses. They believe this will help improve their economy and create more opportunities for everyone.

It’s a good thing to have several suppliers

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Trade
  1. Having many suppliers is important for businesses. It helps keep prices lower because they can compare options more easily.
  2. If companies rely on just one supplier, they might save money at first but face risks later, especially if there are problems like tariffs.
  3. Countries with diverse supply chains can handle trade issues better. For instance, if the US and EU have a trade dispute, the EU might face less inflation due to their varied suppliers.

A Country Is Not a Company

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 9 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
💼 Business Trade
  1. Understanding how markets function is crucial for businesses to operate efficiently.
  2. Companies exist to simplify complex decision-making and to manage relationships between owners and workers.
  3. The dynamics of a country's economy are vastly different from those of a single company due to the scale, complexity, and interdependence of various factors.

Geopolitical decoupling and commodity prices

Klement on Investing • 6 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Geopolitical tensions between the West, China, and Russia are leading to concerns about supply chain decoupling and rising commodity prices.
  2. Global supply chains are vulnerable, especially for critical raw materials like rare earth metals, impacting industrial production.
  3. An IMF research paper highlights the sensitivity of commodity prices to trade disruptions, showing potential surpluses and shortages in different regions.
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The Naryn Fortification - Nikolai Zeland, 1888 & A. Sokolov, 1908

The Library of Alexandria Ultima • 5 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💾 History Trade
  1. The Naryn Fortification in the Tianshan Mountains was a crucial outpost with military and commercial significance for Russia, controlling a key route from Kashgar.
  2. Russian colonialism in the region had economic benefits for nomadic peoples but also led to loss of freedom as they became dependent on trade with sedentary communities.
  3. The Naryn area's harsh conditions, low temperatures, and high altitude presented challenges for agriculture, leading to the need to import food items like bread and fruits.

Is a 40% tariff a good idea?

Economic Forces • 5 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. Tariffs on foreign producers are ultimately paid by domestic consumers and companies.
  2. The Econ 101 trade model can provide insights on tariffs, but real-world applications are more complex.
  3. Applying economic theory involves balancing simplicity and complexity to understand the modern economy.

Marshall's Second Law of Demand

Economic Forces • 5 implied HN points • 09 Nov 23
💼 Business Trade
  1. Economists have many 'laws' but they aren't real laws, like Marshall's Second Law of Demand.
  2. Marshall's Second Law of Demand explains that demand elasticity changes with price and quantity consumed.
  3. Marshall's Second Law is relevant in trade theory, showing how higher productivity leads to higher markups and how competition reallocates production towards more efficient firms.

Trump tariffs won’t easily derail euro zone recovery

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trade
  1. The euro zone is recovering and won’t be heavily impacted by US tariffs. Economists expect slow growth but not a major setback.
  2. There’s confusion about VAT as it’s treated like a sales tax that doesn't favor EU goods over US products.
  3. Even with these tariffs, US can claim a win without causing high inflation in their economy.

Interlude: Soviet Barter And International Trade

Vivid Leaves • 5 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💼 Business Trade
  1. Soviet Union didn't trade with other countries in the traditional way, they used barter instead
  2. International trade often relies on dominant currencies like the US dollar
  3. The concept of the revolving door in American politics allows high-level officials to transition to lucrative private sector jobs

A brief history of counting machines

lcamtuf’s thing • 3 HN points • 26 Aug 23
💾 History Trade
  1. The history of counting machines dates back thousands of years, with early tools like abacus and multiplication tables.
  2. Slide rules were a significant invention in the 17th century, simplifying multiplication and division through logarithms.
  3. The evolution of calculators saw advancements like carry mechanisms and the separation of input and accumulator registers, paving the way for modern electronic calculators.

The Unwinding Reliance on China

Spilled Coffee • 4 implied HN points • 22 Feb 23
💼 Business Trade
  1. Global companies are reducing reliance on China for production by moving to other countries like India, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Bangladesh.
  2. Investors are reconsidering their strategic allocation to Chinese assets and countries heavily reliant on Chinese exports.
  3. Major investors and institutions are steering clear of China, indicating a shift away from Chinese investments.

The Bronze Trade Origins of Cities

Arpitrage • 1 HN point • 23 Jan 24
💾 History Trade
  1. The emergence of cities in the Bronze Age was closely linked to the trade of bronze, which required both tin and copper.
  2. Trade networks centered around metals played a crucial role in the formation and growth of early urban centers.
  3. The end of the Bronze Age and the shift to the Iron Age saw changes in trade dynamics, leading to the collapse of civilizations and the rise of new economic systems.

Henry Huiyao Wang: Key lessons from China’s ascent over the past 25 years

Pekingnology • 0 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Long-term planning and a merit-based, results-driven bureaucracy created policy continuity and encouraged local experimentation that could be scaled nationwide.
  2. A pragmatic hybrid economy — combining state direction, state-owned enterprises, a large private sector and foreign investment — used pilot programmes and data-driven governance to balance stability with market-led innovation.
  3. Heavy investment in education, skills and global engagement built a large, increasingly skilled talent pool that powered industrial upgrading. This strength coexists with new challenges like weak consumption and high local government debt.

Don't take history lessons from Apes

featherlessbipeds • 0 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💾 History Trade
  1. Money has value based on people's belief in it and allows for indirect trade and wealth storage.
  2. Historically, different forms of money were used in trade, not a singular currency.
  3. During the Gold Standard, countries did not need to hold all currency value in gold reserves, and the system allowed for automatic adjustments in trade deficits.

Soda Submarines

Once Upon A News • 0 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💾 History Trade
  1. PepsiCo traded cola for Soviet naval vessels in a unique barter deal in 1989
  2. The Soviet Union traded 17 submarines and other naval vessels for cases of cola
  3. The submarines acquired by PepsiCo in the deal turned out to be more rust than robust

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular TED/FEM/FPC/PUB/01/001

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 21 Jan 22
💰 Finance Trade
  1. Starting February 1, 2022, all import and export operations in Nigeria must use an Electronic Invoice authenticated by Authorised Dealer Banks on the Nigeria Single Window portal.
  2. The new regulation aims to ensure accurate valuation of import and export items through a Global Price Verification Mechanism based on benchmark prices.
  3. Imports and exports with unit prices deviating more than 2.5% from verified global prices will be scrutinized and may not be allowed to proceed.

The Week in Repair: March 27 - April 2

Fight to Repair • 0 implied HN points • 05 Apr 22
💼 Business Trade
  1. The EU is proposing new rules focusing on making products more durable and repairable, including requirements for information on repairs and updates.
  2. Samsung is launching a repair program allowing owners of certain devices to repair them themselves, with iFixit's assistance to provide repair guides and parts.
  3. Colorado passed a bill granting the right to repair powered wheelchairs, highlighting the importance of repair accessibility for various devices.

Advantage diminishing

Model Thinking • 0 implied HN points • 04 Dec 22
💰 Finance Trade
  1. Comparative advantage in economics explains why all countries benefit from trade, not just the most efficient ones. It also applies to trade between individuals.
  2. Visualizing comparative advantage on a production possibility frontier helps illustrate the maximum possible production of goods. It shows the optimal ratio of goods to produce and how diminishing marginal returns can limit the benefits.
  3. In determining optimal populations and trade decisions, the effects of comparative advantage may be near-insignificant with only two goods, but could be more substantial with a larger variety of goods. Free trade brings benefits beyond comparative advantage due to increased returns to scale.

Trade and Jobs

Japan Economy Watch • 0 implied HN points • 28 Oct 17
💼 Business Trade
  1. Manufacturing job loss is mainly due to automation, not trade.
  2. Modern machinery has significantly increased productivity, requiring fewer workers to produce the same output.
  3. The lack of rise in workers' wages is not because of globalization, but due to power dynamics in Washington.

How To Fight Anti-Trade Populism

Japan Economy Watch • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jun 17
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Trade is often blamed for various issues, but solutions must be provided for workers affected by trade and automation.
  2. The backlash against globalization is seen as a significant threat that could have disastrous consequences for the world economy.
  3. Proposals include establishing consensus on programs to support workers impacted by globalization.

Chip Industry Ditches US for China

Sector 6 | The Newsletter of AIM • 0 implied HN points • 31 Mar 23
💼 Business Trade
  1. The US is trying hard to keep its chip companies from doing business with China, offering grants and imposing restrictions. But many companies prefer to work with China anyway.
  2. China is a major player in the semiconductor market, not just for manufacturing but also as a big consumer. Companies like Qualcomm and Apple make a significant portion of their sales from China.
  3. Despite the US government's efforts, major companies are visiting China to strengthen their relationships, showing that they value the potential of the Chinese market over American incentives.

Models: some thoughts

Splattern • 0 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
🕹 Technology Trade
  1. Models are useful tools for gaining insights, but they depend heavily on the assumptions behind them. If the assumptions are wrong, the model won't be helpful.
  2. When you act on a model's predictions, you can actually change the market dynamics, which can impact the model's effectiveness.
  3. It's better to use models for exploration and creativity, rather than relying on them to make decisions for us in most cases. They can help us understand ourselves and our ideas better.

Did Jodhabai Change India's History?

FutureIQ • 0 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
💾 History Trade
  1. Jodhabai, also known as Mariam-uz-Zamani, was a powerful figure in Indian history, influencing trade and politics during her time. Her role as an international trader helped shape the Mughal Empire's dealings with European powers.
  2. She was mistakenly known as Jodhabai due to a mix-up in historical records. Her real name and origins highlight her significant, yet often unrecognized, contributions to the empire.
  3. Her business savvy and connections ultimately affected the outcomes of British and Portuguese trading efforts in India, giving her a vital role in the balance of power during a critical period in history.

Chips foreign, Chips domestic

Alex's Personal Blog • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
💼 Business Trade
  1. Nvidia is having trouble meeting demand for its chips in China, which could hurt its business, but it's still a win for American companies.
  2. The recent US-EU trade deal lowers tariffs but has left some European leaders unhappy, showing that trade agreements can be complicated.
  3. A new Microsoft study suggests many jobs are at risk due to AI automation, which means some workers might need to adapt to changing job markets.

North Star: Stephen Harper on Trump, the U.S., and Populism

The Octavian Report • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Populism is rising because many people feel economically left behind — the financial crisis, trade outcomes, globalization, and immigration anxieties created real grievances that political elites haven't solved.
  2. Trade and immigration are broadly beneficial but only when handled carefully. Good results require detailed, legal, and well-monitored policies to avoid bad deals, irregular migration, and unequal gains.
  3. Western institutions and policies are under strain and must adapt. New technology that spreads dissent fast, shifting U.S. priorities, and risky fiscal/monetary trends mean democracies need fair burden-sharing and inclusive policies to avoid protectionism or illiberal alternatives.

Life of the Party: An Interview with Elizabeth Economy

The Octavian Report • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Xi Jinping has cemented centralized authority by elevating "Xi Jinping Thought," staffing top bodies with loyalists, and leaving open the possibility of extending his term.
  2. The Communist Party is penetrating the economy and daily life by embedding party committees and minority stakes in major firms and expanding surveillance and social-credit controls, which will frustrate entrepreneurs and scholars.
  3. China is pushing a global leadership agenda through initiatives like the Belt and Road and the AIIB to reshape rules and build influence, but execution problems and geopolitical pushback create risks of wasted investment and strategic tensions.

State of Israel: Michael Oren on Israel as a World Power

The Octavian Report • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Israel is less isolated and is increasingly seen as a global power, building new partnerships across Latin America, Africa, Eastern Europe, India, China, and among Sunni Arab states. Its strengths in water, cyber, defense, and other technologies, plus shared security concerns about Iran, are driving this realignment.
  2. The traditional two-state solution looks less realistic to many Israelis, given past withdrawals that led to more violence and the reality of autonomous Palestinian areas today. A more practical approach may be regional, informal understandings and step-by-step arrangements rather than formal, Western-style peace treaties.
  3. Israel faces serious challenges from delegitimization, rising anti-Semitism, and limited diplomatic resources, so it needs to invest more in public diplomacy and maintain broad international support. It also must carefully manage complex ties with the US, China, and Russia and address deep internal social divides while staying cautiously optimistic.

Latin American Future: Why Jorge Quiroga sees pain — and gain — ahead for Latin America

The Octavian Report • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Venezuela’s economic collapse and harsh repression are the biggest geopolitical risk in the region, and what happens there will likely determine whether democracy spreads or authoritarianism deepens across neighboring countries.
  2. China has become South America’s main economic partner, buying commodities and driving investment, and stronger Pacific/Asian ties (like the Pacific Alliance) are a major positive amid rising protectionism from the north.
  3. Bolivia faces near-term pain as its gas bonanza winds down and policy mistakes could hurt the economy, but its huge lithium reserves give it a real chance to become a clean-energy powerhouse if it adopts the right governance and strategy.