The hottest Trade Substack posts right now

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China's industrial policy has an unprofitability problem

Noahpinion • 22412 implied HN points • 20 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics Trade Industry Policy Manufacturing
  1. China's industrial policy is pushing many manufacturers to compete heavily for a limited domestic market. This competition is driving down profit margins as companies fight for customers.
  2. Despite heavy government support and subsidies, many Chinese manufacturers are struggling with profitability and facing price wars that could lead to bankruptcies. This creates a risk of economic instability.
  3. The focus on making more products instead of better ones can hurt innovation. Companies under financial pressure might not invest in long-term improvements and could rely on cheap prices to sell their goods.

Japan and the Birth of Modern Shipbuilding

Construction Physics • 29020 implied HN points • 22 May 25
💼 Business Industry Manufacturing Economics Trade Innovation
  1. Japan learned from America's efficient shipbuilding methods used during WWII, which helped them build ships faster and cheaper after the war.
  2. Japanese shipbuilders improved their processes by incorporating prefabrication and aircraft manufacturing techniques, leading to more efficient construction.
  3. Government support and a strong desire to succeed were crucial for Japan's shipbuilding industry's growth, allowing it to become a world leader.

At least five interesting things: Anything but protests edition (#65)

Noahpinion • 19765 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Economy Energy Manufacturing Trade
  1. The U.S. government is actually pretty efficient, which surprises many tech workers. They often expect to find lots of waste, but instead find hard-working employees.
  2. Solar power is becoming a major energy source in the U.S. and can meet a big chunk of electricity demand, especially when combined with batteries for storage.
  3. Americans are getting richer again after the 2008 financial crisis and housing crash, as housing prices rise and household debt decreases.

Economics Roundup #5

Don't Worry About the Vase • 1836 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Taxation Investment Debt Trade
  1. Many people believe that average tax rates and structures are unfair or ineffective. This could mean that policies need to evolve to better meet people's needs without creating high penalties for earning more.
  2. Trade barriers impact economic growth negatively, as they create higher costs in trade and limit opportunity for development across regions, both domestically and internationally.
  3. Access to credit can significantly influence people's financial wellbeing. If restrictions are placed on credit availability, it can harm those who are already struggling financially.

Top Links 771 How Amazon dominates the US clothing market. Driverless Chinese trucks and where lightning strikes.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
💼 Business Retail E-commerce Market Trends Trade Technology
  1. Amazon is a huge player in the clothing market, selling more than double what any other store sells in the US. This means many people are buying their clothes from Amazon.
  2. The rise of driverless trucks in China shows how technology is changing transportation. This could really impact how goods are delivered around the world.
  3. A lot can be learned from where lightning strikes, as it can reveal patterns in weather or other environmental factors. Understanding this could be important for safety and planning.
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Top Links 768 Here come the robots. Truck parking & Walt Whitman as "self-fashioning vector of the spirit of the age".

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Economics Labor Government Trade
  1. There are new ideas about robots taking over jobs, especially in trucking. This could change how we think about work and technology.
  2. Walt Whitman is being seen as a symbol of individual expression and identity in today's world. His ideas about self-fashioning relate to how people view themselves now.
  3. The impact of tariffs and factory jobs assumes there are enough workers to fill those roles. This might not be true, given current labor shortages.

Top Links 766 No tariffs on vintage. The turbine crisis. Hayek's bastards and Blue Jerusalem.

Chartbook • 543 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Policy Trade History Current Events
  1. There are currently no tariffs on vintage items, making it easier to buy and sell them. This can benefit collectors and businesses alike.
  2. The turbine crisis is a significant issue, which may impact energy production and prices. It's important to stay informed about how this affects the economy.
  3. Hayek's ideas continue to provoke discussions, along with topics related to cities like Blue Jerusalem. Understanding these concepts can help in navigating modern economic debates.

An Argument For Tariffs

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Trade Policy Defense Industry
  1. Tariffs can hurt consumers because they end up paying higher prices. Even if some believe they help local businesses, they can actually make those businesses less competitive.
  2. In some cases, tariffs might be necessary to protect industries that are important for national security, like drone technology. This can help the country stay strong in a competitive world.
  3. Big companies can create advantages that make it hard for others to compete. If countries like China dominate certain industries, tariffs may be needed to keep a fair playing field.

The Secret Lives of Hair

The Global Jigsaw • 277 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🎭️ Culture Fashion Art Health Trade Society
  1. Hair holds deep personal significance for people, symbolizing identity, shame, and beauty. From keepsakes to wigs, hair affects how we see ourselves and how others see us.
  2. The global trade of human hair is complex and often hidden, relying on economic disparities between those who sell their hair and those who buy it. Much of this trade originates from poorer regions, with many women selling their hair for financial support.
  3. Wigs and hair products go through a long journey before reaching consumers, involving multiple countries and cultures. The authentic origins of hair can be misleading, highlighting the hidden stories and market dynamics behind beauty products.

How do we measure whether China's economy is "ahead" of America's?

Noahpinion • 20059 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Trade GDP Currency Growth
  1. There are different ways to measure the size of economies, like using nominal GDP or purchasing power parity (PPP). Depending on the method, we can get very different perspectives on whether China's economy is ahead of America's.
  2. The exchange rate can change the perception of an economy's size, especially if a country's currency is weak. If China's yuan strengthens, it could suddenly appear larger than the U.S. economy in nominal terms.
  3. When comparing economies, it's important to consider local prices and living standards. For a more accurate view of how people live and what they can afford, using PPP is crucial despite its complexity and potential inaccuracies.

Brad Setser Says Smart Things on Exorbitant Privilege Unearned & Earned

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 322 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investments Economics Global Markets Monetary Policy Trade
  1. The dollar's power is not just a natural right; it relies on global faith in American institutions and returns. It's a constant balance that can shift quickly if trust is lost.
  2. Private investors have played a huge role in keeping investment flowing into the U.S., as they seek returns and perceived safety. This pattern has changed from reliance on central banks to a focus on individual investors.
  3. The stability of the dollar could be threatened by political issues within the U.S. If the legal and financial systems weaken, trust may fade and capital could flee quickly.

Is Donald Trump Losing His Mojo?

Slack Tide by Matt Labash • 210 implied HN points • 30 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trump Politics Economy Trade Public Opinion
  1. People are noticing small wins lately since big achievements are hard to come by. It shows that sometimes you have to celebrate the little things.
  2. Trump is being linked to tacos in a funny way due to his trade decisions. This light-hearted connection has sparked some positive feelings about him.
  3. Many feel weary of bad trade ideas, fearing more economic strain. People want to avoid paying higher prices for things because of poor decisions.

Top Links 749 Tanning and the tariffs. How small boats are getting bigger. Liverpool and the unmaking of Britain.

Chartbook • 629 implied HN points • 25 May 25
💼 Business Trade Economics Industry International Supply Chain
  1. The leather industry in the US is facing challenges due to tariffs, which can affect the prices of products made from leather.
  2. Small boats are getting bigger, which might change how we think about fishing and travel at sea.
  3. The history of Liverpool is highlighted as a key part of understanding the changes in Britain.

The Cold War History of Export Controls

ChinaTalk • 415 implied HN points • 30 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Geopolitics Technology History Trade
  1. Export controls on technology have a long history, dating back to the Cold War, and they show how countries try to limit each other's advancements.
  2. The effectiveness of these controls depends heavily on cooperation between countries; without a united approach, it's hard to enforce such regulations.
  3. Tracking where technology goes after it's exported is crucial. If countries can't monitor this, it makes it easy for others to use loopholes and bypass the rules.

Top Links 748 Why US agricultural exports matter. Industrializing Carrara & the giant impact of America's mass incarceration.

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 24 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Agriculture Trade Incarceration Policy
  1. US agricultural exports are important for farmers and the economy, helping to stabilize prices and increase income.
  2. Industrializing Carrara highlights the significant impact of industries on local economies and communities.
  3. America's mass incarceration has wide-ranging effects, affecting both individuals and society as a whole.

🎓 On the origins of the merchant class

Obsidian Iceberg • 59 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💾 History Trade Commerce Colonization Economics Civilizations
  1. Merchants used to work for kings and leaders, getting luxury goods for them. Over time, trade changed to focus on profit rather than just serving powerful rulers.
  2. As trade expanded, merchants started catering to smaller clients. This shift led to more diverse trading networks and a wider variety of goods available.
  3. Cities grew as places of commerce, not just government. Instead of being mainly for rulers, urban areas became important for trade and economic activity.

It’s a good thing to have several suppliers

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Trade Market Analysis Inflation
  1. Having many suppliers is important for businesses. It helps keep prices lower because they can compare options more easily.
  2. If companies rely on just one supplier, they might save money at first but face risks later, especially if there are problems like tariffs.
  3. Countries with diverse supply chains can handle trade issues better. For instance, if the US and EU have a trade dispute, the EU might face less inflation due to their varied suppliers.

Economic Errors

David Friedman’s Substack • 655 implied HN points • 28 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Wealth Trade Investment Tariffs
  1. Wealth isn't just cash; it can be land, stocks, or buildings. A person's gain in wealth doesn't mean someone else has to lose money.
  2. When countries trade, it’s not just about wages. The value of currencies affects trade costs, and tariffs can disrupt these complex economic balances.
  3. People often hold on to incorrect economic beliefs because they sound easier or support their self-image. Understanding the real logic behind economics can be complicated but helps us see the true picture.

Op-Ed: New China tariffs and USPS disruptions threaten Temu and Shein’s US growth

The PhilaVerse • 123 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💼 Business Ecommerce Tariffs Shipping Trade Regulations
  1. New tariffs from China and USPS delivery issues may hurt Temu and Shein's low pricing options in the US.
  2. If shipping costs go up, these companies might have to raise prices or take a hit on their profits.
  3. Both companies are already facing scrutiny over their practices, so new regulations could make it even harder for them in the competitive market.

Starting a trade war as the global reserve currency

Deep Pulusani - Risk • 332 implied HN points • 16 Apr 25
💰 Finance Currency Trade Economics Globalization Investment
  1. Having a reserve currency gives a country special advantages, like easier borrowing and more power in international trade. This can make things cheaper for its citizens and boost their purchasing power.
  2. However, relying too much on being the reserve currency can hurt domestic industries, leading to job losses and higher inequality. This often pushes the country to adopt protectionist policies to revive local production.
  3. Countries that want to move away from the reserve currency face risks like financial instability. It's hard to balance the benefits of being a reserve nation while fixing domestic economic problems.

A Lens to Understand the Trump Tariffs

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 769 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Tariffs Trade Economics Investment Market Analysis
  1. Not all tariffs are bad; they can help boost domestic manufacturing and protect jobs. The U.S. has lost many manufacturing jobs to overseas markets, which affects both the economy and national security.
  2. Often, tariff threats are used as negotiation tools rather than actual intentions to impose tariffs. For example, Trump used the threat of tariffs to gain cooperation from other countries on unrelated issues.
  3. The bigger issue is that many countries, including China, put up barriers to U.S. products while expecting open access to American markets. Addressing these trade imbalances can be crucial for fair international trade.

This Is What Fairer Trade with China Looks Like

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1080 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💼 Business Trade E-commerce Marketing Retail Economics
  1. There are differences in the tariffs that companies like Gap and H&M pay compared to platforms like Temu and Shein. This raises questions about fairness in trade practices.
  2. Brands like Shein and Temu are gaining a lot of attention through aggressive advertising on social media and other platforms.
  3. There is a culture emerging around 'haul' videos, where influencers showcase their purchases from these low-cost retailers, promoting consumerism.

Is Justin Trudeau’s Government on the Brink of Collapse?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1432 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Leadership Policy Resignation Trade
  1. Justin Trudeau's government might be close to collapsing due to recent political turmoil. The resignation of an important ally has weakened his position significantly.
  2. Donald Trump's recent post about imposing tariffs on Canada could have serious implications for Trudeau. This situation seems to have added more pressure on his government.
  3. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's resignation is a major blow to Trudeau, as she was one of his closest collaborators. Her fiery letter highlights increasing tensions within the government.

How Trump’s Tariff Threat Made Apple Jump

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 570 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Corporate Trade Investment Leadership
  1. Apple plans to invest $500 billion in the U.S., which could set a trend for other companies. This is a big decision that shows they are responding to economic pressures.
  2. Trump's comments on tariffs indicate he believes they can influence business decisions, like Apple's move to invest domestically.
  3. The situation reflects how political actions can have real effects on large businesses and their investment strategies.

Border Crossings

Doomberg • 5582 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Energy Trade Economy
  1. The North American natural gas market is facing challenges like low prices and overproduction, leading to strategic production cutbacks by major players.
  2. The interconnected pipeline infrastructure among the US, Canada, and Mexico is facilitating significant natural gas exchanges, especially benefiting Mexico with its growing gas demand.
  3. Mexico's strategic position within NAFTA allows it to benefit from cheap energy imports from the US while also capitalizing on its own export opportunities to the US, contributing to its economic growth.

Mark Cuban, Kobe Bryant: Two More Theories on Why the Luka Dončić Happened

House of Strauss • 37 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
🎾 Sports Athletes Teams Management Trade Analysis
  1. Mark Cuban hired Nico Harrison as GM, but it seems he was not ready for the job. This has led to problems that only became noticeable later.
  2. There are underlying reasons for the issues that the NBA community is aware of, even if they don't openly discuss them.
  3. Kobe Bryant's influence and theories regarding the situation may also provide additional insights into what is happening with Luka Dončić and the Mavericks.

Luka Doncic and the market for lemons

Silver Bulletin • 679 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🎾 Sports Basketball Athletes Trade Analysis Market
  1. Luka Doncic being traded to the Lakers surprised everyone because such big trades are rare. Usually, it happens when teams are struggling or a player is unhappy.
  2. Typically, there's a lot of drama leading up to a superstar trade, but Doncic's trade happened suddenly without warning signs.
  3. People are questioning whether the Mavericks made a poor choice in trading Doncic without getting more in return, stirring curiosity about their decision-making.

‘I Don’t Think My Business Can Survive These Tariffs’

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 635 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💼 Business Trade Tariffs Small business Economics International Trade
  1. Many small businesses in Canada are struggling due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S., especially under Trump's trade policies. This means they might face serious financial challenges unless these tariffs are lifted.
  2. Darrin Smith, who runs a successful woodworking tools company, is worried that the 25% tariffs will threaten the survival of his business. He relies heavily on sales to the U.S.
  3. The tariffs were created to address issues like illegal immigration and drug smuggling, but the actual impact on businesses could be quite damaging, raising concerns about the broader economy.

Top Links 635 The rebalancing of global industrial production. A hog-cycle in containers. Czech reserves & Korean coups (in 1979)

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💼 Business Global Economy Trade Economics Geopolitics
  1. Global industrial production is shifting. This means how and where things are made around the world is changing.
  2. There is a trend called a 'hog-cycle' in container shipping. This affects how goods are transported and the availability of containers.
  3. Historical events, like the Czech reserves and Korean coups in 1979, can help us understand current global shifts and economic patterns.

Toshiba’s Big Technology Export Scandal

The Asianometry Newsletter • 4737 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Technology Trade Geopolitics Export Controls Cold War
  1. During the post-World War II era, the Soviet Union acquired Western technologies like modern American equipment, affecting global trade dynamics.
  2. Export controls evolved over time in the United States, influenced by historical events, concerns over national security, and international cooperation.
  3. The Toshiba-Kongsberg Incident in 1980s highlighted the challenges of enforcing trade restrictions, the impact on companies like Toshiba, and the need for effective, fair enforcement measures.

Top Links 634 Amerikanizm, tariffs and inflation. The UK's productivity stagnation, & the war-risk business.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Trade Inflation Productivity Geopolitics
  1. Amerikanizm can have impacts on tariffs and inflation. This means policies can affect prices and trade in significant ways.
  2. The UK's productivity is not improving much, which suggests challenges in its economy. This stagnation can lead to slower growth and less innovation.
  3. There are increasing risks related to war for businesses. Companies might face uncertainties that could influence their operations and profits.

Unfamiliar Territory

Knicks Film School • 1190 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🎾 Sports Basketball NBA Team Trade
  1. Knicks are now viewed as a strong contender in the NBA East.
  2. The team made strategic trades to strengthen their roster for potential success.
  3. Maintaining flexibility and having a clear plan have put the Knicks in a promising position for the future.

Joe Biden’s Silent War on America’s Steel Industry

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 982 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Trade Presidency Economy National Security
  1. Joe Biden's actions have negatively impacted the U.S. steel and aluminum industries, leading to a decline after years of Trump's tariffs.
  2. Imports of steel and aluminum surged under Biden as he dismantled Trump's tariffs, causing a decrease in domestic manufacturing jobs.
  3. Reinstating Trump's tariffs could help revive the steel industry, and forming domestic partnerships like U.S. Steel with Cleveland Cliffs may be beneficial for national security.

China is ‘world’s sole manufacturing superpower’, with 35% of global output

Geopolitical Economy Report • 1056 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Manufacturing Economy Trade Industrialization Geopolitics
  1. China has become the world's top manufacturing power, accounting for 35% of global production.
  2. China's economic success is largely attributed to its state-led development model, with government-controlled enterprises and strategic policies.
  3. The US is heavily reliant on Chinese manufactured goods, making complete decoupling challenging and costly for both countries.

My latest from NBA Trade Season

Marc Stein • 1022 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
🎾 Sports NBA Trade Basketball
  1. Updates on more than half of the NBA's 30 teams are coming as the trade deadline approaches
  2. Expect the unexpected in the NBA trade season; surprises often happen last minute
  3. Past unexpected trades, like Irving and Durant's, hint that more surprises could be on the way

Top Links 641 The UK's trade deficit with the US. Low-income growth in the USA. How electrification stalled. "M: son of the century" and "The new us".

Chartbook • 314 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trade Economics Deficits Income Growth
  1. The UK has a unique trade relationship where it imports more from the US than it exports, leading to a trade deficit. This is unusual for a developed country.
  2. Low-income growth in the USA is a significant issue, highlighting economic challenges faced by many. It's affecting overall prosperity and living standards.
  3. Electrification efforts have hit a roadblock, indicating that progress in energy transition is not happening as fast as needed. This could impact future sustainability initiatives.

Economics Links, 2/15/2025

In My Tribe • 243 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Trade Health Policy Substack International
  1. The European Union may have created a big, slow government that doesn't serve its people well. Some believe smaller countries manage their affairs better.
  2. Importing goods doesn't always harm jobs; a trade deficit can actually mean a strong economy. More spending and demand can lead to more jobs, not fewer.
  3. Becoming successful on platforms like Substack is tough. It often takes a large existing following or writing about popular subjects to grow your audience.