The hottest Trade Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Border Crossings

Doomberg • 5582 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Energy Trade Economy
  1. The North American natural gas market is facing challenges like low prices and overproduction, leading to strategic production cutbacks by major players.
  2. The interconnected pipeline infrastructure among the US, Canada, and Mexico is facilitating significant natural gas exchanges, especially benefiting Mexico with its growing gas demand.
  3. Mexico's strategic position within NAFTA allows it to benefit from cheap energy imports from the US while also capitalizing on its own export opportunities to the US, contributing to its economic growth.

Toshiba’s Big Technology Export Scandal

The Asianometry Newsletter • 4737 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Technology Trade Geopolitics Export Controls Cold War
  1. During the post-World War II era, the Soviet Union acquired Western technologies like modern American equipment, affecting global trade dynamics.
  2. Export controls evolved over time in the United States, influenced by historical events, concerns over national security, and international cooperation.
  3. The Toshiba-Kongsberg Incident in 1980s highlighted the challenges of enforcing trade restrictions, the impact on companies like Toshiba, and the need for effective, fair enforcement measures.

Whither China 5: No, China is not competing with India for Wall Street's attention.

Chartbook • 1316 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Globalization Investment Trade Geopolitics Economy
  1. Wall Street is pulling billions from China's economy and shifting focus to India, creating a significant change in global markets.
  2. Financial flows in China show a trade surplus, with global investors moving away from China and towards India.
  3. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into China has drastically decreased since 2022, reflecting investor concerns about geopolitics and domestic policies.

Unfamiliar Territory

Knicks Film School • 1179 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🎾 Sports Basketball NBA Team Trade
  1. Knicks are now viewed as a strong contender in the NBA East.
  2. The team made strategic trades to strengthen their roster for potential success.
  3. Maintaining flexibility and having a clear plan have put the Knicks in a promising position for the future.

Joe Biden’s Silent War on America’s Steel Industry

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 982 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Trade Presidency Economy National Security
  1. Joe Biden's actions have negatively impacted the U.S. steel and aluminum industries, leading to a decline after years of Trump's tariffs.
  2. Imports of steel and aluminum surged under Biden as he dismantled Trump's tariffs, causing a decrease in domestic manufacturing jobs.
  3. Reinstating Trump's tariffs could help revive the steel industry, and forming domestic partnerships like U.S. Steel with Cleveland Cliffs may be beneficial for national security.
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My latest from NBA Trade Season

Marc Stein • 1022 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
🎾 Sports NBA Trade Basketball
  1. Updates on more than half of the NBA's 30 teams are coming as the trade deadline approaches
  2. Expect the unexpected in the NBA trade season; surprises often happen last minute
  3. Past unexpected trades, like Irving and Durant's, hint that more surprises could be on the way

China is ‘world’s sole manufacturing superpower’, with 35% of global output

Geopolitical Economy Report • 1056 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Manufacturing Economy Trade Industrialization Geopolitics
  1. China has become the world's top manufacturing power, accounting for 35% of global production.
  2. China's economic success is largely attributed to its state-led development model, with government-controlled enterprises and strategic policies.
  3. The US is heavily reliant on Chinese manufactured goods, making complete decoupling challenging and costly for both countries.

Grimes on the Move?

Knicks Film School • 727 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Basketball Trade NBA Teams Players
  1. Knicks may be looking to trade player Quentin Grimes for an upgrade
  2. Potential trade targets need to meet specific requirements like being able to create scoring opportunities and fit into the team's salary structure
  3. New York Knicks are aiming to keep future picks and swaps available for larger trades by using Grimes in a potential trade package

ChinAI #251: A surprise in the data on China's chip imports

ChinAI Newsletter • 609 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Semiconductors Trade Geopolitics Cybersecurity
  1. China's chip imports dropped for the first time in consecutive years due to geopolitical factors and increased demand in emerging industries like 5G and AI.
  2. China has been focusing on localizing chip production to reduce the trade deficit, with the self-sufficiency rate increasing from 16.6% in 2020 to 23.3% in 2023.
  3. In the past ten years, China's chip industry experienced significant growth, with chip imports and exports doubling in quantity and value.

Spicy P(acers)

Good Morning It's Basketball • 569 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
🎾 Sports NBA Trade Basketball Team
  1. Indiana trades for Pascal Siakam with a relatively low risk trade package compared to his contract.
  2. Dejan Milojevic, assistant coach for the Golden State Warriors, tragically passed away from a heart attack.
  3. Deandre Ayton couldn't play for the Blazers due to icy conditions in Portland, impacting his ability to travel.

Tariffs Do Not Work

Points And Figures • 506 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tariffs Taxes Trade Economy Policy
  1. Tariffs do not work as intended, often leading to higher prices for consumers and businesses.
  2. Repealing all tariffs on foreign goods and shifting to a consumption tax system could make imports cheaper and boost competitiveness of US products.
  3. Using a consumption tax system could lower prices for American consumers and create a more competitive market without the need for tariffs.

Tyrese Haliburton’s ideal teammate

TrueHoop • 452 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Basketball Trade Players Teams
  1. Pascal Siakam is seen as the perfect teammate for Tyrese Haliburton, offering complementary skills that can elevate the Pacers' potential.
  2. Siakam's versatility and chemistry with Haliburton are highlighted, showcasing his value in helping the Pacers succeed and supporting Haliburton's leadership.
  3. The Pacers' acquisition of Siakam is viewed as a strategic and promising move, positioning them well for success and a strong playoff run.

Bulls and bears: a nuclear update

Everything is Light • 373 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Energy Nuclear Renewables Trade Policy
  1. Energy security is a global concern and nuclear energy is crucial for societal progress.
  2. Many countries are investing in expanding nuclear energy generation, with significant projects underway in Asia, Europe, and North America.
  3. Despite past reservations, some nations like Japan and Italy are reconsidering nuclear power, while others like Denmark and Singapore are exploring options.

Citizen Trump.

News Items • 196 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics China Economy Growth Trade Authoritarianism
  1. China's economy is struggling with a trade surplus and other challenges like a property market downturn.
  2. Investors and officials fear that China lacks a reliable source of growth.
  3. Boosting the spending of China's vast population is seen as a key factor for economic growth in the country.

There is an urgent need to unlock labor productivity in African economies

An Africanist Perspective • 613 implied HN points • 19 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Economic Development Debt crisis Trade
  1. African economies are facing a decline in growth rates due to reliance on commodity exports and insufficient wage job creation, with potential negative implications for the future.
  2. Policymakers must find a delicate balance to prevent liquidity crises from turning into solvency crises, focus on revitalizing economic dynamism in major economies like Nigeria and South Africa, and prioritize intra-Africa trade for economic growth.
  3. The decline in labor productivity in African countries is a significant challenge, requiring urgent attention and structural reforms to promote domestic commercial revolutions and create more jobs.

China & Russia pledge 'changes not seen in 100 years': Xi & Putin take aim at US dollar hegemony

Geopolitical Economy Report • 677 implied HN points • 26 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Trade
  1. China & Russia are challenging US dollar hegemony by promoting trade in yuan and national currencies
  2. Bilateral trade between China and Russia is rapidly growing, hitting record highs and expected to surpass $200 billion in 2023
  3. Russia is expanding energy cooperation with China, exemplified by projects like the Power of Siberia gas pipeline

Ukraine's neoliberalism on steroids, Europe’s economic suicide

Geopolitical Economy Report • 458 implied HN points • 22 May 23
🌍 World Politics Europe Russia Neoliberalism Industrial Policy Trade
  1. The conflict in Ukraine reflects aggressive neoliberal reforms and Europe's self-destructive policies.
  2. Wars are fought not just with arms, but also with economic strategies. The underlying geopolitical economy is complex.
  3. Russia is focused on turning military victory in Ukraine into a new economic order, challenging Western imperialism and promoting a multipolar world.

France's Macron opposes US cold war on China, wants independent Europe - but is it just rhetoric?

Geopolitical Economy Report • 458 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Europe United States China Trade
  1. France's Macron advocates for Europe's independence from the US to avoid being mere followers, emphasizing the need for strategic autonomy.
  2. Macron's warnings about not becoming vassals to the US are influenced by the economic importance of China as the EU's top trading partner.
  3. The failure of previous efforts, like the INSTEX mechanism, to challenge US dominance highlights the challenges Macron faces in altering Europe's foreign policy towards China.

Cash crops, marketing boards, and agricultural policy failures in Africa

An Africanist Perspective • 455 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Agriculture Development Trade Africa Policy
  1. Improving agricultural productivity in Africa is crucial for economic development. Policymakers need to shift towards policies that support small-scale farmers and focus on local value addition before exports.
  2. The role of the state in African agriculture needs to be reconsidered. Historical policies like marketing boards have had both positive and negative impacts, and there is a need for open-mindedness towards government involvement in the sector.
  3. African cash crop producers face challenges in benefiting from their produce due to the structure of international commodity markets. African governments must invest in value addition and convince buyers to support local processing to boost sectoral margins.