Tech gamble is about paying the price of hypothetical future tech debt upfront without proper data or insight, leading to waste and friction for the product.
Symptoms of tech gamble include complex technical solutions for simple problems, big bang improvement projects cancelled mid-execution, and rewriting systems without clear pragmatic checkpoints.
Tech debt is reactive, while tech gamble is proactive, with tech debt giving engineers a bad conscience and tech gamble representing naive ambition or malice.
Spotify's layoffs serve as a warning for other companies, especially those that have grown rapidly and may need to optimize operations.
Layoffs are often caused by a combination of external factors like market conditions and internal factors like fake work and lack of alignment.
It's critical for companies to focus on meaningful value creation and avoid falling into traps like bureaucracy, fake work, and fragmented responsibilities.