Top posts of the year
And their main takeaways
137 implied HN points
•
04 Aug 23
- Manifold and Polymarket are prediction market sites with different betting systems.
- Contrary to a hypothesis, Manifold is not more volatile than Polymarket.
- The request is for Manifold and Polymarket to provide easier access to time-series price data for analysis.
58 implied HN points
•
07 Dec 23
- Prediction markets offer straightforward incentives for accuracy and can untangle true beliefs from stated beliefs.
- Success in prediction markets is based on skill in making accurate probabilistic forecasts, not luck.
- Prediction markets can aggregate useful information, potentially outperforming polls in predicting outcomes.
39 implied HN points
•
07 Nov 23
- Calibration plots show how accurate forecasts are by comparing predicted probabilities to actual outcomes.
- Sports betting markets are remarkably well-calibrated based on analysis of MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAA data from 2016-2020.
- Implied probabilities in sports betting are normalized for analysis, where they sum to 1, to compare prediction accuracy.