The hottest Prediction Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Astral Codex Ten β€’ 4336 implied HN points β€’ 12 Mar 24
  1. Academic teams are working on fine-tuning AIs for better predictions, competing with the wisdom of crowds.
  2. The use of multiple AI models and aggregating predictions may be as effective as human crowdsourced predictions.
  3. Superforecasters' perspectives on AI risks differ based on the pace of AI advancement, showcasing varied opinions within expert communities.
Astral Codex Ten β€’ 4473 implied HN points β€’ 20 Feb 24
  1. AI forecasters are becoming more prevalent in prediction markets, with the potential for bots to compete against humans in forecasting events.
  2. is a new company building an AI-based forecaster that prompts itself with various questions to estimate probabilities.
  3. The integration of AI in prediction markets like Polymarket could increase market participation and accuracy, offering a new way to predict outcomes on various topics.
One Useful Thing β€’ 1048 implied HN points β€’ 16 Jan 24
  1. Consider waiting for technology to improve before embarking on projects in fields where advancements are rapid.
  2. AI has the potential to significantly impact various industries, leading to the need for strategic thinking about project timelines.
  3. Evaluate the risks and benefits of waiting for AI advancements in decision-making processes, balancing learning, incentives, and the unpredictability of future developments.
Astral Codex Ten β€’ 5919 implied HN points β€’ 23 May 23
  1. A play money prediction market turned serious when whales v. minnows gambling escalated, resulting in heavy financial losses, leading to ethical challenges.
  2. Congress is facing the decision of raising the debt ceiling, which if not resolved, could lead to severe economic consequences.
  3. Research shows that experts fare better than algorithms and non-experts in long-term geopolitical forecasting, raising questions about the accuracy and possibilities of such predictions.
Nooceleration β€’ 452 implied HN points β€’ 05 Jan 24
  1. Noocelerationism emphasizes optimizing rational self-aware thought on the planet for a better future.
  2. Mainstream visions for the future may lead to suboptimal outcomes, so alternative routes like biosingularity are considered.
  3. Decentralized blockchain tech and network states can play roles in controlling AI and reshaping global governance.
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Silver Bulletin β€’ 141 implied HN points β€’ 22 Aug 23
  1. Polls in Iowa at this stage aren't very reliable, so Trump's lead may not be as significant as it seems.
  2. Candidates who lead in late-summer Iowa polls don't always win the caucuses, showing the unpredictability of the state.
  3. While Trump is the favorite, history shows that winning Iowa isn't necessary for securing the GOP nomination.
Dan Elton's Newsletter β€’ 98 implied HN points β€’ 28 Sep 23
  1. Potential red flags in scientific research include institutional names, graph quality, and suspicious videos or websites.
  2. Impurities like copper sulfide and uneven copper doping can lead to erroneous results in material studies.
  3. The LK-99 incident highlighted the importance of skepticism, replication, and the limitations of prediction markets and theoretical studies.
Abstraction β€’ 7 HN points β€’ 08 Aug 23
  1. Short-term prediction markets offer faster resolutions and better interest rates than long-term markets.
  2. An iterative approach with annual markets can tackle the time value of money issue in long-term predictions.
  3. Automated creation of frequent short-term markets can provide real-time insights and address the time value of money problem effectively.
Abstraction β€’ 4 implied HN points β€’ 15 Aug 23
  1. Iterative prediction markets provide a method to understand terminal market probabilities when other methods like loans are not an option.
  2. These markets may introduce distortions but can offer more precise insights through strategic application.
  3. By working backward through iterative markets, starting from the terminal market, it's possible to estimate the true underlying probability of a question.
I'll Keep This Short β€’ 3 HN points β€’ 05 Jun 23
  1. The Internet of Things has been difficult to define in terms of success due to its varied meanings over time.
  2. Using prediction markets can help provide a more objective way to discuss and analyze topics like the Internet of Things.
  3. IoT has become commonplace and less of a marketing trend, with its search volume remaining relatively stable but showing potential for future growth.
I'll Keep This Short β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 07 Nov 23
  1. Users are interested in both short and long-term prediction markets; platforms should support varying time horizons.
  2. There is a preference for non-curated markets, allowing users the freedom to create markets that interest them.
  3. Many users are motivated by gaming and enjoyment when using prediction markets, highlighting the importance of designing engaging experiences.
Unstabler Ontology β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 06 Mar 24
  1. Kelly betting is a strategy in gambling that maximizes money growth by betting a fixed fraction of one's income each round.
  2. In prediction markets, the optimal Kelly betting strategy involves spending a portion of money on contracts based on the subjective probabilities of outcomes.
  3. The simple Kelly betting rule can be equivalent to the original Kelly rule in cases with two outcomes, providing a more intuitive understanding of betting strategies.