The hottest Prediction Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Mantic Monday 3/11/24

Astral Codex Ten • 4336 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Cryptocurrency Prediction Markets AI Ethics
  1. Academic teams are working on fine-tuning AIs for better predictions, competing with the wisdom of crowds.
  2. The use of multiple AI models and aggregating predictions may be as effective as human crowdsourced predictions.
  3. Superforecasters' perspectives on AI risks differ based on the pace of AI advancement, showcasing varied opinions within expert communities.

Mantic Monday 2/19/24

Astral Codex Ten • 4473 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Prediction Markets Forecasting Blockchain
  1. AI forecasters are becoming more prevalent in prediction markets, with the potential for bots to compete against humans in forecasting events.
  2. FutureSearch.ai is a new company building an AI-based forecaster that prompts itself with various questions to estimate probabilities.
  3. The integration of AI in prediction markets like Polymarket could increase market participation and accuracy, offering a new way to predict outcomes on various topics.

The Lazy Tyranny of the Wait Calculation

One Useful Thing • 1048 implied HN points • 16 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Innovation Software Development Artificial General Intelligence Prediction Markets
  1. Consider waiting for technology to improve before embarking on projects in fields where advancements are rapid.
  2. AI has the potential to significantly impact various industries, leading to the need for strategic thinking about project timelines.
  3. Evaluate the risks and benefits of waiting for AI advancements in decision-making processes, balancing learning, incentives, and the unpredictability of future developments.

Mantic Monday 5/22/23

Astral Codex Ten • 5919 implied HN points • 23 May 23
💰 Finance Prediction Markets Debt Ceiling Bitcoin Financial Decisions
  1. A play money prediction market turned serious when whales v. minnows gambling escalated, resulting in heavy financial losses, leading to ethical challenges.
  2. Congress is facing the decision of raising the debt ceiling, which if not resolved, could lead to severe economic consequences.
  3. Research shows that experts fare better than algorithms and non-experts in long-term geopolitical forecasting, raising questions about the accuracy and possibilities of such predictions.

Nooceleration: A Better World is Possible

Nooceleration • 452 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Blockchain Life Extension Prediction Markets
  1. Noocelerationism emphasizes optimizing rational self-aware thought on the planet for a better future.
  2. Mainstream visions for the future may lead to suboptimal outcomes, so alternative routes like biosingularity are considered.
  3. Decentralized blockchain tech and network states can play roles in controlling AI and reshaping global governance.
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LK-99 red flags and other miscellany

Dan Elton's Newsletter • 98 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
🔬 Science Materials Replication Theory Prediction Markets
  1. Potential red flags in scientific research include institutional names, graph quality, and suspicious videos or websites.
  2. Impurities like copper sulfide and uneven copper doping can lead to erroneous results in material studies.
  3. The LK-99 incident highlighted the importance of skepticism, replication, and the limitations of prediction markets and theoretical studies.

Iterative Markets Explained

Abstraction • 4 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
🕹 Technology Prediction Markets Market Strategies
  1. Iterative prediction markets provide a method to understand terminal market probabilities when other methods like loans are not an option.
  2. These markets may introduce distortions but can offer more precise insights through strategic application.
  3. By working backward through iterative markets, starting from the terminal market, it's possible to estimate the true underlying probability of a question.

Whatever Happened to The Internet of Things?

I'll Keep This Short • 3 HN points • 05 Jun 23
🕹 Technology IOT Prediction Markets Patents Marketing Strategy
  1. The Internet of Things has been difficult to define in terms of success due to its varied meanings over time.
  2. Using prediction markets can help provide a more objective way to discuss and analyze topics like the Internet of Things.
  3. IoT has become commonplace and less of a marketing trend, with its search volume remaining relatively stable but showing potential for future growth.

Insights from Recent Prediction Markets Polls: What Users Want in a Platform

I'll Keep This Short • 0 implied HN points • 07 Nov 23
🕹 Technology Prediction Markets Artificial Intelligence Content Moderation
  1. Users are interested in both short and long-term prediction markets; platforms should support varying time horizons.
  2. There is a preference for non-curated markets, allowing users the freedom to create markets that interest them.
  3. Many users are motivated by gaming and enjoyment when using prediction markets, highlighting the importance of designing engaging experiences.

Simple Kelly betting in prediction markets

Unstabler Ontology • 0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Betting Prediction Markets Probability
  1. Kelly betting is a strategy in gambling that maximizes money growth by betting a fixed fraction of one's income each round.
  2. In prediction markets, the optimal Kelly betting strategy involves spending a portion of money on contracts based on the subjective probabilities of outcomes.
  3. The simple Kelly betting rule can be equivalent to the original Kelly rule in cases with two outcomes, providing a more intuitive understanding of betting strategies.