The hottest Prediction Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Betting Markets

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Prediction Markets Political Analysis Government Policy
  1. Betting markets can predict election outcomes more accurately than polls. They quickly adjust based on new information, making them reliable for forecasting.
  2. Unlike traditional markets, prediction markets are less likely to be manipulated. Studies show attempts to influence them usually don't succeed, keeping the forecasts steady.
  3. Understanding how the market works is key. It gathers and shares information in a way that motivates accuracy, unlike traditional polling methods that can miss the mark.

Safe Bets, Lotto Tickets, and Vibes

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1097 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political Analysis Prediction Markets Betting
  1. Prediction markets help people place bets on political outcomes, including election results. It's a way to predict what might happen based on the money people are willing to gamble.
  2. There are different types of bets: safe bets on likely outcomes, long-shot bets on unlikely events, and those based on gut feelings or 'vibes.' Each type can be a strategy for making money in these markets.
  3. Overall, despite the uncertainty in politics, the belief is that democracy will continue to function and elections will still be certified. Even in the face of chaos, the systems in place are expected to hold.

Introduction to Prediction Markets

DeFi Education • 699 implied HN points • 26 Jul 24
🔮 Crypto Prediction Markets DeFi Trading Market Analysis
  1. Prediction markets let users bet on the outcomes of real-world events, like elections or interest rates, by creating and trading tokens. This allows for both speculation and hedging against risks in the financial markets.
  2. Polymarket is a leading prediction market platform that has seen rapid growth, particularly during election cycles. Users can make money by providing liquidity and taking advantage of market mispricings.
  3. Memecoins and prediction markets serve different purposes for betting on events. Prediction markets offer specific outcomes with sound pricing, while memecoins allow for uncapped upside but carry risks of fluctuations based on popularity.

Mantic Monday 3/11/24

Astral Codex Ten • 4336 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Cryptocurrency Prediction Markets AI Ethics
  1. Academic teams are working on fine-tuning AIs for better predictions, competing with the wisdom of crowds.
  2. The use of multiple AI models and aggregating predictions may be as effective as human crowdsourced predictions.
  3. Superforecasters' perspectives on AI risks differ based on the pace of AI advancement, showcasing varied opinions within expert communities.

Mantic Monday 2/19/24

Astral Codex Ten • 4473 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Prediction Markets Forecasting Blockchain
  1. AI forecasters are becoming more prevalent in prediction markets, with the potential for bots to compete against humans in forecasting events.
  2. FutureSearch.ai is a new company building an AI-based forecaster that prompts itself with various questions to estimate probabilities.
  3. The integration of AI in prediction markets like Polymarket could increase market participation and accuracy, offering a new way to predict outcomes on various topics.
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Mantic Monday 5/22/23

Astral Codex Ten • 5919 implied HN points • 23 May 23
💰 Finance Prediction Markets Debt Ceiling Bitcoin Financial Decisions
  1. A play money prediction market turned serious when whales v. minnows gambling escalated, resulting in heavy financial losses, leading to ethical challenges.
  2. Congress is facing the decision of raising the debt ceiling, which if not resolved, could lead to severe economic consequences.
  3. Research shows that experts fare better than algorithms and non-experts in long-term geopolitical forecasting, raising questions about the accuracy and possibilities of such predictions.

Introducing prediction market embeds for Substack

Substack • 319 implied HN points • 29 Jul 24
🕹 Technology Digital Tools Prediction Markets Content creation Data Analysis Online Platforms
  1. Substack now allows users to embed prediction markets from Polymarket in their posts. This can make articles more engaging by providing real-time data on trending topics.
  2. The new feature is launching just in time for the 2024 Paris Olympics, letting writers easily add betting odds on various events. This could enhance the coverage of the Olympics on Substack.
  3. Polymarket is also starting a news site on Substack called 'The Oracle,' which will give insights and analyses based on active prediction markets. This aims to help readers understand global events better.

The Lazy Tyranny of the Wait Calculation

One Useful Thing • 1048 implied HN points • 16 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Innovation Software Development Artificial General Intelligence Prediction Markets
  1. Consider waiting for technology to improve before embarking on projects in fields where advancements are rapid.
  2. AI has the potential to significantly impact various industries, leading to the need for strategic thinking about project timelines.
  3. Evaluate the risks and benefits of waiting for AI advancements in decision-making processes, balancing learning, incentives, and the unpredictability of future developments.

Futarchy, Distortions from Hedging, and Other Thoughts

Something to Consider • 79 implied HN points • 28 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Governance Prediction Markets Economic Policy Risk management Voting Systems
  1. Futarchy is a new way to make decisions where people vote on what they want to achieve, but experts decide the best way to get there using prediction markets. This means we focus on outcomes instead of specific policies.
  2. When people are risk-averse, they might prefer safer options, and this can affect the choices made in a futarchy setup. It’s important to balance between achieving high goals and taking on too much risk.
  3. Even though prediction markets are useful, they can be skewed by people's efforts to hedge against risks. This means prices might not always reflect the true chances of outcomes, but they can still provide valuable information.

Nooceleration: A Better World is Possible

Nooceleration • 452 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Blockchain Life Extension Prediction Markets
  1. Noocelerationism emphasizes optimizing rational self-aware thought on the planet for a better future.
  2. Mainstream visions for the future may lead to suboptimal outcomes, so alternative routes like biosingularity are considered.
  3. Decentralized blockchain tech and network states can play roles in controlling AI and reshaping global governance.

Parasocial Activity

Malt Liquidity • 6 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Prediction Markets Public Opinion Media influence Political Discourse
  1. Prediction markets are like betting games where people guess outcomes. The prices in these markets reflect people's opinions, not the actual chances of things happening.
  2. It's hard to trust polls and models because they often just show guesses instead of real data. They can't accurately predict the winner of an election since every event is unique.
  3. Discussions about prediction markets can become confusing and frustrating. They often don't help us understand real odds and can turn political debates into meaningless chatter.

LK-99 red flags and other miscellany

Dan Elton's Newsletter • 98 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
🔬 Science Materials Replication Theory Prediction Markets
  1. Potential red flags in scientific research include institutional names, graph quality, and suspicious videos or websites.
  2. Impurities like copper sulfide and uneven copper doping can lead to erroneous results in material studies.
  3. The LK-99 incident highlighted the importance of skepticism, replication, and the limitations of prediction markets and theoretical studies.

Quarterly Roundup for 2023: Books, Podcasts, AI Developments, Prediction Markets, and Previewed Posts

Holodoxa • 59 implied HN points • 04 Apr 23
🕹 Technology Books Podcasts AI Prediction Markets Writing
  1. The author shares their favorite books of 2023 and aims to read more fiction in the future. Recommendations are welcomed!
  2. The author discusses their favorite podcasts and shares new and interesting podcast recommendations they've been enjoying.
  3. The author explores recent AI developments, including large language models, chatbots, and text-to-image generators, encouraging others to experiment with these resources.

Iterative Markets Explained

Abstraction • 4 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
🕹 Technology Prediction Markets Market Strategies
  1. Iterative prediction markets provide a method to understand terminal market probabilities when other methods like loans are not an option.
  2. These markets may introduce distortions but can offer more precise insights through strategic application.
  3. By working backward through iterative markets, starting from the terminal market, it's possible to estimate the true underlying probability of a question.

Whatever Happened to The Internet of Things?

I'll Keep This Short • 3 HN points • 05 Jun 23
🕹 Technology IOT Prediction Markets Patents Marketing Strategy
  1. The Internet of Things has been difficult to define in terms of success due to its varied meanings over time.
  2. Using prediction markets can help provide a more objective way to discuss and analyze topics like the Internet of Things.
  3. IoT has become commonplace and less of a marketing trend, with its search volume remaining relatively stable but showing potential for future growth.

Polymarket and the Power of Collective Intelligence

Coin Metrics' State of the Network • 0 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🔮 Crypto Blockchain Prediction Markets Digital Assets Market Analysis
  1. Prediction markets can give real-time insights into how likely certain events are to happen, rather than just relying on static polls. This makes them more dynamic and informative.
  2. Polymarket is a popular prediction market built on the Polygon blockchain, where users can bet on future events. It has a large investment of over $200 million locked in and is a major player in the Polygon ecosystem.
  3. The markets for the 2024 U.S. presidential election on Polymarket are very active and show how political events can affect the cryptocurrency market, especially with fluctuations in Bitcoin prices.

Insights from Recent Prediction Markets Polls: What Users Want in a Platform

I'll Keep This Short • 0 implied HN points • 07 Nov 23
🕹 Technology Prediction Markets Artificial Intelligence Content Moderation
  1. Users are interested in both short and long-term prediction markets; platforms should support varying time horizons.
  2. There is a preference for non-curated markets, allowing users the freedom to create markets that interest them.
  3. Many users are motivated by gaming and enjoyment when using prediction markets, highlighting the importance of designing engaging experiences.

Simple Kelly betting in prediction markets

Unstabler Ontology • 0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Betting Prediction Markets Probability
  1. Kelly betting is a strategy in gambling that maximizes money growth by betting a fixed fraction of one's income each round.
  2. In prediction markets, the optimal Kelly betting strategy involves spending a portion of money on contracts based on the subjective probabilities of outcomes.
  3. The simple Kelly betting rule can be equivalent to the original Kelly rule in cases with two outcomes, providing a more intuitive understanding of betting strategies.

Transparency and its discontents

Adam's Legal Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Regulation Government Legal system Prediction Markets Enforcement
  1. Event contracts in prediction markets can give insights on future events based on market probabilities.
  2. The regulatory actions of the CFTC on Prediction Markets are under scrutiny and ongoing legal challenges.
  3. The concept of judicially unreviewable no-action letters in regulatory actions is discussed in relation to Prediction Markets.