The hottest Betting Substack posts right now

Super Bowl is a big deal with indulging in food, random gambling, and interesting prop bets like the Coin Toss or National Anthem duration.
Some people feel less excited about the Super Bowl due to commercial previews and focus more on betting on various aspects like the Coin Toss or player actions.
General excitement around the Super Bowl includes enjoying the game, drinking beer, and temporarily forgetting about bigger world issues, despite the ongoing commercial and military-industrial complex distractions.

Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund made a $2 billion offer to merge men's and women's pro tennis tours, signaling its growing interest in sports investments.
The Kansas City Chiefs threatened to leave the city if they don't receive $500 million in taxpayer funds for stadium renovations, showcasing the dynamics of professional sports teams and public financing.
Professional sports teams often leverage relocation threats to secure public funding for stadium projects, even when viable relocation options may be limited.

The Chiefs are viewed as underdogs despite Patrick Mahomes' success and team history.
Media and public perception differ from sports betting odds in favoring the Chiefs.
Injuries to Chiefs players and their weak rush defense may tip the scales in the 49ers' favor.

Nate Silver is creating his own NBA Eastern Conference projected standings without the RAPTOR projections this year.
He is considering team dynamics, player injuries, and other factors to come up with his projections.
He shares insights on top teams like the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks, discussing changes and challenges for the upcoming season.

Calibration plots show how accurate forecasts are by comparing predicted probabilities to actual outcomes.
Sports betting markets are remarkably well-calibrated based on analysis of MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAA data from 2016-2020.
Implied probabilities in sports betting are normalized for analysis, where they sum to 1, to compare prediction accuracy.

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Kelly betting is a strategy in gambling that maximizes money growth by betting a fixed fraction of one's income each round.
In prediction markets, the optimal Kelly betting strategy involves spending a portion of money on contracts based on the subjective probabilities of outcomes.
The simple Kelly betting rule can be equivalent to the original Kelly rule in cases with two outcomes, providing a more intuitive understanding of betting strategies.