The hottest Betting Substack posts right now

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The Super Bowl Press!

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 315 implied HN points • 07 Feb 26
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. The Super Bowl dominates the weekend and pop culture, with the New England Patriots (now led by Drake Maye and coach Mike Vrabel) facing a resurgent Seattle Seahawks built around young talent.
  2. Sports betting is huge — as many as 70 million Americans may bet on the game — and the ubiquity of betting apps can distract fans and put young people’s money and mental health at risk.
  3. Big non-football stories are grabbing attention too: Michael J. Fox is back in a role that echoes his Parkinson’s advocacy, and a new Winter Olympics docuseries has made ice dancing a must-watch spectacle.

The Silver Bulletin Super Bowl LX preview

Silver Bulletin • 332 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. The Seahawks and Patriots both started the season as longshots but have become surprising Super Bowl LX contenders, making them feel like overachievers this year.
  2. The ELWAY forecast system has been bullish on both teams since it began publishing, producing ratings, QB adjustments, and simulations that largely line up with Vegas odds.
  3. The preview examines key X‑factors — quarterback health and performance, the Patriots' schedule, and why Super Bowls often score high — and it uses 30,000 simulations to project likely final scores and best square picks.

What Gambling Has Done to Sports—and to Us

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 496 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. Legalized sports betting is now widespread and lets millions place fast, in-game wagers from their phones.
  2. Easy access to betting has driven rising addiction and debt and changed how fans watch and behave at games.
  3. Betting has fueled harassment, death threats, and game-rigging scandals that threaten players’ safety and the integrity of sports.

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

Astral Codex Ten • 16656 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Betting
  1. Polymarket, a prediction market, did well during the recent election by accurately calling results and gaining popularity. However, there are still concerns about accuracy in their pricing, particularly regarding Trump shares.
  2. It's important not to overreact to single significant events when making predictions. Even if things seem to favor one hypothesis after an event, it doesn't mean we should change our overall beliefs drastically.
  3. The reliability of prediction markets like Polymarket compared to non-money forecasting sites like Metaculus is still up for debate. Past performance shows non-money forecasters often have better accuracy, and big bets from individuals can create misleading odds in prediction markets.

Signals Gold Q&A, Week 5

Stealing Signals • 39 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. A weekly livestream Q&A session will be held for subscribers. It's a chance for members to ask questions and engage in discussions.
  2. The livestream is scheduled for 9:30 PM ET, which sets a clear time for attendees.
  3. Subscribers can upgrade to the Signals Gold plan for access to exclusive content and features.
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Let’s Use Prediction Markets for Olympic Athlete Selection!

Something to Consider • 139 implied HN points • 01 Aug 24
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. Using prediction markets could help select the best Olympic athletes. It lets people bet on who they think will win medals, creating a more informed decision.
  2. A single race can be too random to decide who goes to the Olympics. Markets can help show which athletes have the best chances over time.
  3. This approach could work alongside the current Olympic trials, giving athletes an extra chance to prove themselves. It encourages transparency and competition among the athletes.

A view from the Pinnacle

networked • 143 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. Pinnacle has long been the sharpest football bookmaker, so using its odds as a baseline lets bettors spot expected-value edges by taking better prices at softer bookies.
  2. Since about 2023, Pinnacle’s closing odds have become less reliable and produced lower-than-expected returns, which could be down to randomness, arbitrage-driven moves, or a decline in their model accuracy.
  3. Prediction markets offer low house take and no bans so they attract sharps, but limited liquidity and wider spreads create an effective vig and stake limits, meaning Pinnacle’s deep liquidity and high limits still keep it relevant.

AI and GDP: The Caplan-Karnofsky Bet

In My Tribe • 273 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💼 Business Betting
  1. Bryan Caplan's bet on GDP and AI is unique because it involves a lot of uncertainty. Usually, he picks safer bets, but AI is unpredictable.
  2. The time frame of 20 years is significant; advancements might happen faster due to modern communication. This may lead to AI being adopted more quickly than expected.
  3. If the GDP drops significantly, it might be due to factors like war or disasters, rather than AI. And for GDP to rise dramatically, we need breakthroughs in education, healthcare, or robotics.

MR WRONG: Another dip in the Super Bowl

INDIGNITY • 275 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. Super Bowl is a big deal with indulging in food, random gambling, and interesting prop bets like the Coin Toss or National Anthem duration.
  2. Some people feel less excited about the Super Bowl due to commercial previews and focus more on betting on various aspects like the Coin Toss or player actions.
  3. General excitement around the Super Bowl includes enjoying the game, drinking beer, and temporarily forgetting about bigger world issues, despite the ongoing commercial and military-industrial complex distractions.

Safe Bets, Lotto Tickets, and Vibes

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1097 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Betting
  1. Prediction markets help people place bets on political outcomes, including election results. It's a way to predict what might happen based on the money people are willing to gamble.
  2. There are different types of bets: safe bets on likely outcomes, long-shot bets on unlikely events, and those based on gut feelings or 'vibes.' Each type can be a strategy for making money in these markets.
  3. Overall, despite the uncertainty in politics, the belief is that democracy will continue to function and elections will still be certified. Even in the face of chaos, the systems in place are expected to hold.

Does Locker Drama Matter?

House of Strauss • 15 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. Stories of locker-room drama get a lot of attention, but once they’re widely reported the betting market usually prices that information in.
  2. Early rumblings are hard to measure and often make bettors nervous, even though it’s unclear how predictive they actually are.
  3. Many people believe strong team chemistry is important for winning in tough moments, but real cases show mixed outcomes so it’s not a reliable guarantee.

How to Win at Gambling and in Life

Kneeling Bus • 185 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. Courtsiding is when someone at a game places bets based on what they see in real time, taking advantage of the delay in betting apps. This shows how technology can create new opportunities to win in gambling.
  2. Sports betting is changing the way we consume sports media, with odds and spreads becoming more common on screens. This shift reflects a deeper trend where everything is becoming about numbers and predictions.
  3. As gambling expands into everyday life, people might start betting on personal actions. This can create new ways to have agency, suggesting that even if traditional success seems difficult, there are still ways to find success in unexpected places.

Calibration of Sports Betting Markets

Mike’s Blog • 39 implied HN points • 07 Nov 23
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. Calibration plots show how accurate forecasts are by comparing predicted probabilities to actual outcomes.
  2. Sports betting markets are remarkably well-calibrated based on analysis of MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAA data from 2016-2020.
  3. Implied probabilities in sports betting are normalized for analysis, where they sum to 1, to compare prediction accuracy.

Crazy bets on 2025 - 12 personal hedge funds predict the year

Five Links (and three graphs) by Auren Hoffman • 56 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Betting
  1. A group of twelve people made predictions about 2025 and placed bets on the outcomes. This makes it fun and competitive to see who can guess the future better.
  2. Last year's predictions didn't go well overall, with only a few being correct. It shows that forecasting the future can be really tricky.
  3. This year, they have some bold predictions about events in politics, the economy, and culture. Some predictions sound far-fetched, but others seem more likely.

NBA Eastern Conference preview

Silver Bulletin • 82 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. Nate Silver is creating his own NBA Eastern Conference projected standings without the RAPTOR projections this year.
  2. He is considering team dynamics, player injuries, and other factors to come up with his projections.
  3. He shares insights on top teams like the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks, discussing changes and challenges for the upcoming season.

Are the Chiefs Really Underdogs?

House of Strauss • 25 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. The Chiefs are viewed as underdogs despite Patrick Mahomes' success and team history.
  2. Media and public perception differ from sports betting odds in favoring the Chiefs.
  3. Injuries to Chiefs players and their weak rush defense may tip the scales in the 49ers' favor.

Sports Betting Goes Live In North Carolina + Saudi Arabia's $2B Tennis Offer, The Chiefs Threaten To Leave Kansas City, Caitlin Clark's NIL Potential, And More

Huddle Up • 16 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund made a $2 billion offer to merge men's and women's pro tennis tours, signaling its growing interest in sports investments.
  2. The Kansas City Chiefs threatened to leave the city if they don't receive $500 million in taxpayer funds for stadium renovations, showcasing the dynamics of professional sports teams and public financing.
  3. Professional sports teams often leverage relocation threats to secure public funding for stadium projects, even when viable relocation options may be limited.

Arbitrage Betting, Chinese Businessmen & Real-Life Freerolls

Lucky Maverick • 2 implied HN points • 15 Jul 25
💰 Finance Betting
  1. When the risks are low, it's smart to take more chances and try new things. Don't just focus on being right, but rather on the potential benefits from your experiments.
  2. Arbitrage betting can help you find profitable situations, even if it doesn't guarantee success on both sides. Use it as a way to identify when market prices might be wrong.
  3. Look for 'freerolls' in life where you can gain benefits without much risk. These opportunities can lead to positive outcomes, even if they seem small at first.

Horse Races, Real and Political: Intrade's Favorite-Longshot Bias

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 05 Jan 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Betting
  1. Betters often prefer longshots to favorites, even when the favorites are better bets. This is known as the favorite-longshot bias.
  2. Studies show that betting on favorites tends to result in less loss compared to betting on longshots. Longshots usually lead to worse returns over time.
  3. This bias affects how people place bets in political markets too, leading to irrational choices like favoring less likely candidates just for the excitement.

Markets for sports outcomes- The long odds bias!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 12 Oct 08
🎾 Sports Betting
  1. People often bet too much on long odds in sports, thinking they might win big, while ignoring the favorites. This usually leads to losing money.
  2. This behavior shows how humans can misjudge probabilities, often thinking rare events are more likely than they are.
  3. In finance, this long odds bias can result in overvaluing risky stocks and undervaluing stable companies, just like in sports betting.

Magnificent 7 earnings week, election betting, and the latest from Robinhood

Alex's Personal Blog • 0 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
💰 Finance Betting
  1. This week is busy for companies reporting their earnings, especially the big ones called the Magnificent 7. Investors can bet on whether companies will do well or not before the earnings results come out.
  2. More people are getting into online sports betting, which is now a big business in many states. It's interesting to see how much money is being wagered and how it affects things like tax revenue.
  3. Election betting is becoming a thing where people can place bets on election outcomes. While it offers a new way for people to engage, it raises concerns about how it could influence the actual elections.

Simple Kelly betting in prediction markets

Unstabler Ontology • 0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Betting
  1. Kelly betting is a strategy in gambling that maximizes money growth by betting a fixed fraction of one's income each round.
  2. In prediction markets, the optimal Kelly betting strategy involves spending a portion of money on contracts based on the subjective probabilities of outcomes.
  3. The simple Kelly betting rule can be equivalent to the original Kelly rule in cases with two outcomes, providing a more intuitive understanding of betting strategies.