The hottest Market volatility Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

War Dashboard

Doomberg • 7567 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
💰 Finance Market volatility
  1. A major conflict in the Middle East has started and energy markets are likely to move sharply when futures trading opens tonight.
  2. Signs like a potential Strait of Hormuz shutdown and insurers pulling tanker coverage point to real supply risk, so energy prices will probably rise significantly.
  3. Markets act as real-time sensors that cut through social media noise, so watching prices and trading activity is the best way to infer what’s actually happening on the ground.

Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 181 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
💰 Finance Market volatility
  1. Current-coupon MBS yields jumped to their highest since last September and CCMBS/Treasury spreads widened to levels not seen since December as surging oil prices and war-related uncertainty pushed overall interest rates up.
  2. Implied interest-rate and equity volatility (MOVE and VIX) spiked, and higher rate volatility tends to raise MBS yields versus Treasuries because the mortgages’ embedded prepayment option becomes more costly to investors.
  3. A prior announcement that GSEs would buy about $200 billion of MBS briefly tightened spreads, but since then CCMBS yields are roughly 21 basis points higher and spreads 10–13 bp wider, so investors buying alongside GSEs should have a clear exit strategy.

What Happens Next?

The Honest Broker • 10106 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
💰 Finance Market volatility
  1. There are growing concerns that a backlash against AI could seriously hurt big tech, with Meta seen as especially vulnerable.
  2. Meta’s stock has plunged roughly $180 per share since early August and the NASDAQ has dropped about 1,400 points in the same period, showing a sharp market pullback.
  3. This sudden decline raises urgent questions about what happens next for investors and the broader market, so close attention and caution are warranted.

Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 263 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
💰 Finance Market volatility
  1. Mortgage-backed security yields fell when 10-year Treasuries briefly dropped below 4%, but MBS spreads to Treasuries widened and are now about as wide or wider than before the GSE purchase announcement.
  2. Spreads had narrowed earlier due to very low rate volatility and expectations that GSEs were buying more MBS, yet rising implied and actual interest-rate volatility has pushed spreads wider again as markets reassess how sustainable the tight spreads are.
  3. January GSE holdings rose only modestly (Freddie ~$3.9B, Fannie ~$11.5B), but those monthly figures show settled purchases only and don’t reflect commitments that would mostly settle in February or later, so they don’t reveal the true pace of GSE buying.

Plumbing Notes: The Basis Trade Scare

Concoda • 518 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
💰 Finance Market volatility
  1. The cash-futures basis trade is really important for the bond market. It's a complex strategy where traders buy and sell bonds to manage risks and maximize profits.
  2. There is a lot of fear around hedge funds using leverage in basis trades, but many of these fears might be exaggerated. Traders have ways to handle fluctuations in interest rates without losing their positions.
  3. Overall, the bond market is evolving, and while some risks are present, the structure is strong enough to withstand certain shocks, and hedge funds play a vital role in keeping the market stable.
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Crisis in Shanghai

The Dollar Endgame • 339 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💰 Finance Market volatility
  1. Chinese stock markets are collapsing, showing signs of a potential fraud that's causing panic among investors.
  2. The real estate crisis in China is exacerbating the financial turmoil, leading to massive declines in stock market indexes like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component.
  3. Efforts by Chinese regulators to stabilize the markets, such as injecting funds and clamping down on illegal practices, have so far been ineffective in curbing the crisis.

4 US banks crash in 2 months: Banking crisis explained by economist Michael Hudson

Geopolitical Economy Report • 458 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Market volatility
  1. Economist Michael Hudson discusses the collapse of four US banks in two months, including First Republic Bank being taken over by JP Morgan Chase, highlighting the deep ties between government regulators and bankers.
  2. The collapse of banks like First Republic Bank can be attributed to high ratios of uninsured deposits and risky long-term mortgages, demonstrating systemic issues in the banking sector.
  3. The banking crisis is a result of the government's bailout policies, with large banks like JP Morgan Chase being given favorable deals despite being rated as the riskiest, leading to the undue burden on the economy and the potential for a deep financial collapse.

Value Investors: How To "Buy & Hold" Forever Despite ST Volatility

Value Investing Substack • 294 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Market volatility
  1. Value investors can create a low-volatility portfolio by combining Factor Investing with Value Investing
  2. Implementing a diversified portfolio of 20 stocks with >1:3 risk:reward can provide a 15% CAGR while minimizing downside volatility
  3. Staying disciplined, identifying stocks with high risk:reward ratio, and staying in cash until finding suitable opportunities are key strategies for value investors

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
💰 Finance Market volatility
  1. Existing home sales likely ran at a 4.10 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in November, unchanged from October and about 1.7% below last November; median single-family prices were roughly 1.9% higher year-over-year.
  2. Current-coupon MBS spreads to Treasuries are very low — near late‑2022 levels — driven by unusually low interest-rate volatility and speculation that GSEs will keep buying MBS.
  3. There is concern GSEs are ramping up debt‑financed MBS purchases at the FHFA’s direction; those purchases may be politically motivated, not profitable given low spreads, and not in the public’s financial interest.

Five Themes of 2023

The Last Bear Standing • 116 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
💰 Finance Market volatility
  1. The recession that has been expected is delayed, and there are indications that the economy continues to grow.
  2. Inflation is decreasing, and the Federal Reserve aims to maintain this trend through its monetary policy.
  3. The technology sector has seen a resurgence in 2023, particularly in big tech companies and AI developments.

Staying Invested

Spilled Coffee • 4 implied HN points • 15 Mar 23
💰 Finance Market volatility
  1. Staying invested is important for long-term gains in the stock market, despite market volatility.
  2. Market timing is not effective because predicting the future is impossible.
  3. Stocks historically recover from downturns, so it's important to stay invested and continue buying in the market.

Why A Stock Market Pullback Is Likely

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Market volatility
  1. The stock market is likely to experience a pullback because history shows that periods of continuous growth are always followed by downturns.
  2. Investors should be prepared for market volatility, as on average there are 3 pullbacks and a correction every year.
  3. Selloffs are a normal part of investing, and understanding the different levels like pullback, correction, bear market, and market crash can help investors navigate through fluctuations.