The hottest Predictions Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Technology Topics
Campaign Trails 4844 implied HN points 23 Oct 24
  1. Historians are trained to look back at events, not predict the future. They often find it tricky to offer reassurance during election seasons.
  2. Making confident predictions can lead to embarrassment, as history shows many past predictions were wrong. This causes historians to be cautious when discussing possible outcomes.
  3. Predictions about elections are often unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt. The best approach is to focus on getting people to vote rather than getting caught up in the predictions.
The Pomp Letter 839 implied HN points 22 Oct 24
  1. Goldman Sachs predicts a long bear market for the next decade, but some believe we're actually in a bull market. Data suggests stocks could do well in the near future.
  2. The U.S. is facing a significant increase in national debt, which affects the economy. This surge in debt could lead to currency devaluation.
  3. Long-term, the impact of currency debasement will overshadow other economic factors, like stock valuations. It’s important to stay aware of these financial trends.
Knicks Film School 654 implied HN points 17 Oct 24
  1. The NBA is seeing rising scoring trends, but this might change as the league is allowing more physical play. This could lead to lower scoring games in the upcoming season.
  2. There are discussions about adding players to teams, with specific names being considered for roster spots due to injuries and team needs.
  3. Former Knicks player Jamal Crawford will be joining the broadcast team, providing commentary for about ten games next season.
Nerology 142 implied HN points 29 Oct 24
  1. The project turns election predictions into real newspaper headlines, making stats feel more concrete. Each data point in the simulations gets a corresponding news story.
  2. Using a script, detailed election results from states can be generated, summarizing victories and close races. This gives journalists useful info to write about.
  3. AI tools were utilized to create news articles and images, making the project visually appealing and engaging. The tech helps bring the election outcomes to life with visuals and compelling stories.
Big Technology 6004 implied HN points 15 Mar 24
  1. Gartner predicts a 25% drop in traditional search engine traffic by 2026, with AI chatbots and virtual agents gaining more traction.
  2. The decline in search engine traffic could significantly impact major players like Google and potentially lead to a shift in web navigation towards chatbots and away from traditional search.
  3. The prediction of a decline in search traffic raises questions about the future of web content strategy and the role of individual web pages in the era of AI-driven answer engines.
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Astral Codex Ten 6056 implied HN points 01 Aug 23
  1. CFTC's regulation on prediction markets sparks debate about potential rigging of US elections
  2. There is curiosity and activity in predicting the possibility of a room temperature superconductor
  3. PredictIt faces legal challenges but gets a stay of execution, highlighting the complexities in regulating real-money prediction markets
JoeBlogs 2024 implied HN points 23 Jan 24
  1. The author predicts Adrián Beltré will be elected into the Hall of Fame with a high percentage.
  2. The author introduces the concept of 'Hock Score' to measure a player's popularity at the Hall of Fame.
  3. The author plans to engage readers with a discussion thread and video related to the Hall of Fame ballot.
thezvi 2454 implied HN points 28 Mar 23
  1. Predictions about the future are hard, especially about technological advancements like AI.
  2. Existential risks from AI should not be underestimated, as they can lead to potentially negative outcomes.
  3. It is important to carefully consider the consequences of advancing AI technology and not rush into decisions that may have long-term impacts.
Mathworlds 1375 implied HN points 17 Jan 24
  1. Generative AI tools may not eliminate 90% of teachers' administrative tasks by 2024 according to a teacher survey.
  2. AI tutors evolving to become great is another prediction for 2024, but their widespread success remains uncertain.
  3. It's crucial for edtech developers to create tools that truly meet the practical needs of teachers and students, as indicated by survey results.
Samstack 1422 implied HN points 13 Sep 23
  1. Experts may not be as reliable as we think, with evidence showing they often fare poorly compared to ordinary individuals in making predictions.
  2. There's a growing concern about fraud and publication bias in scientific journals, undermining the credibility of experts' work.
  3. While skepticism towards expertise is warranted, there are strategies for the average person to evaluate research validity and experts can still provide valuable insights.
Myth Pilot 1257 implied HN points 20 Apr 23
  1. Nuclear War Simulator provides insight into the devastating impacts of a nuclear conflict.
  2. Surviving a nuclear war would lead to a vastly different world, with changes in demographics, government, and society.
  3. Post-nuclear world powers are likely to shift, with countries like China, Japan, and India emerging as key players.
AI Snake Oil 648 implied HN points 24 Jan 24
  1. The idea of AI replacing lawyers is plausible but not well-supported by current evidence.
  2. Applications of AI in law can be categorized into information processing, creativity/judgment tasks, and predicting the future.
  3. Evaluation of AI in law needs to advance beyond static benchmarks to real-world deployment scenarios.
Silver Bulletin 410 implied HN points 18 Mar 24
  1. The 2024 March Madness predictions suggest Connecticut is the favorite to repeat as champs, but with only a 23% chance. Other top contenders include Purdue, Arizona, and Houston.
  2. The model used for the predictions is based on a composite of power ratings with adjustments for injuries and travel distance. It also considers preseason rankings to enhance predictive accuracy.
  3. The East region is highlighted as a chalky region with potential for upsets in certain games, like the 7-10 upset pick. The winner from this region will face the winner from the livelier West region in the Final Four.
Mindful Modeler 339 implied HN points 23 Jan 24
  1. Quantile regression can be used for robust modeling to handle outliers and predict tail behavior, helping in scenarios where underestimation or overestimation leads to loss.
  2. It is important to choose quantile regression when predicting specific quantiles, such as upper quantiles, for scenarios like bread sales where under or overestimating can have financial impacts.
  3. Quantile regression can also be utilized for uncertainty quantification, and combining it with conformal prediction can improve coverage, making it useful for understanding and managing uncertainty in predictions.
Rod’s Blog 416 implied HN points 19 Dec 23
  1. Generative AI is rapidly advancing and has a wide range of applications from enhancing creativity to solving real-world problems.
  2. In 2023, Generative AI saw explosive growth, with a significant number of organizations implementing it in various business functions.
  3. Expected trends in 2024 for Generative AI include more advanced language models, more creative applications, and increased focus on ethical and responsible considerations.
DeFi Education 679 implied HN points 02 Jul 23
  1. 2023 has been a strong year for crypto, with the best first half for prices since 2019. Bitcoin is trading above $30,000, showing good market momentum.
  2. There is growing interest from major financial institutions, like the world's largest asset manager, seeking to offer Bitcoin ETFs. This could boost the legitimacy and adoption of crypto.
  3. The overall sentiment in the market is positive, but it's important to stay cautious and informed about potential future changes in regulations and market dynamics.
The Algorithmic Bridge 212 implied HN points 26 Jan 24
  1. Moral fashions restrict what can be said and thought about, and going against them can lead to serious consequences.
  2. In AI communities, there are unspoken beliefs and ideas that people hesitate to express publicly, even within their own groups.
  3. Challenging current moral fashions in AI can lead to uncovering important future truths and insights.
Fintech Wrap Up 216 implied HN points 17 Jan 24
  1. Bitcoin ETF trades exceeded $4.6 billion, a substantial milestone.
  2. Most banks faced a tough year except JPMorgan, thriving in profits.
  3. Prediction for 2024 suggests Shopify may acquire Stripe for strategic growth.
Experimental Fat Loss 127 implied HN points 10 Mar 24
  1. Torricelli's Law for Fat Loss explains how weight loss can slow down as you approach your normal weight, similar to a bucket draining liquid with decreasing speed.
  2. Weight loss projections can be influenced by dietary changes and external factors, like daylight savings time affecting circadian rhythms and potentially affecting weight loss plateaus.
  3. Testing multiple weight loss projections, such as following a fitted curve and intuition-based predictions, can help in anticipating weight loss outcomes and adjusting dietary strategies.
1517 Fund 121 implied HN points 07 Mar 24
  1. Kubrick and Clarke came close to predicting the iPad in 2001: A Space Odyssey, but paper still played a big role in their vision, showing the challenge of imagining the shift to portable computers.
  2. The prediction of flat screens in 2001 was impressive considering they didn't exist at the time; RCA's pursuit of flat-panel technology likely influenced this foresight.
  3. Despite their brilliance, Kubrick and Clarke didn't fully predict the iPad because they were constrained by the prevalent mainframe computing environment and underestimated the advancements in miniaturization and portable computing.