The hottest Predictions Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Top Technology Topics
Big Technology • 6004 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
  1. Gartner predicts a 25% drop in traditional search engine traffic by 2026, with AI chatbots and virtual agents gaining more traction.
  2. The decline in search engine traffic could significantly impact major players like Google and potentially lead to a shift in web navigation towards chatbots and away from traditional search.
  3. The prediction of a decline in search traffic raises questions about the future of web content strategy and the role of individual web pages in the era of AI-driven answer engines.
Silver Bulletin • 410 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
  1. The 2024 March Madness predictions suggest Connecticut is the favorite to repeat as champs, but with only a 23% chance. Other top contenders include Purdue, Arizona, and Houston.
  2. The model used for the predictions is based on a composite of power ratings with adjustments for injuries and travel distance. It also considers preseason rankings to enhance predictive accuracy.
  3. The East region is highlighted as a chalky region with potential for upsets in certain games, like the 7-10 upset pick. The winner from this region will face the winner from the livelier West region in the Final Four.
JoeBlogs • 2024 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
  1. The author predicts Adrián Beltré will be elected into the Hall of Fame with a high percentage.
  2. The author introduces the concept of 'Hock Score' to measure a player's popularity at the Hall of Fame.
  3. The author plans to engage readers with a discussion thread and video related to the Hall of Fame ballot.
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Mathworlds • 1375 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
  1. Generative AI tools may not eliminate 90% of teachers' administrative tasks by 2024 according to a teacher survey.
  2. AI tutors evolving to become great is another prediction for 2024, but their widespread success remains uncertain.
  3. It's crucial for edtech developers to create tools that truly meet the practical needs of teachers and students, as indicated by survey results.
Astral Codex Ten • 6056 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
  1. CFTC's regulation on prediction markets sparks debate about potential rigging of US elections
  2. There is curiosity and activity in predicting the possibility of a room temperature superconductor
  3. PredictIt faces legal challenges but gets a stay of execution, highlighting the complexities in regulating real-money prediction markets
AI Snake Oil • 648 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
  1. The idea of AI replacing lawyers is plausible but not well-supported by current evidence.
  2. Applications of AI in law can be categorized into information processing, creativity/judgment tasks, and predicting the future.
  3. Evaluation of AI in law needs to advance beyond static benchmarks to real-world deployment scenarios.
Experimental Fat Loss • 127 implied HN points • 10 Mar 24
  1. Torricelli's Law for Fat Loss explains how weight loss can slow down as you approach your normal weight, similar to a bucket draining liquid with decreasing speed.
  2. Weight loss projections can be influenced by dietary changes and external factors, like daylight savings time affecting circadian rhythms and potentially affecting weight loss plateaus.
  3. Testing multiple weight loss projections, such as following a fitted curve and intuition-based predictions, can help in anticipating weight loss outcomes and adjusting dietary strategies.
1517 Fund • 121 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
  1. Kubrick and Clarke came close to predicting the iPad in 2001: A Space Odyssey, but paper still played a big role in their vision, showing the challenge of imagining the shift to portable computers.
  2. The prediction of flat screens in 2001 was impressive considering they didn't exist at the time; RCA's pursuit of flat-panel technology likely influenced this foresight.
  3. Despite their brilliance, Kubrick and Clarke didn't fully predict the iPad because they were constrained by the prevalent mainframe computing environment and underestimated the advancements in miniaturization and portable computing.
Inland Nobody • 80 implied HN points • 10 Mar 24
  1. Economics is a challenging field due to the numerous variables involved in predicting and understanding economic outcomes.
  2. The history of economic growth shows that sustained worldwide economic growth is a relatively recent development, starting around 1820.
  3. Predicting economic trends is complex, similar to predicting the weather, due to the vast number of interconnected variables that can influence economic behavior.
Samstack • 1422 implied HN points • 13 Sep 23
  1. Experts may not be as reliable as we think, with evidence showing they often fare poorly compared to ordinary individuals in making predictions.
  2. There's a growing concern about fraud and publication bias in scientific journals, undermining the credibility of experts' work.
  3. While skepticism towards expertise is warranted, there are strategies for the average person to evaluate research validity and experts can still provide valuable insights.
Rod’s Blog • 416 implied HN points • 19 Dec 23
  1. Generative AI is rapidly advancing and has a wide range of applications from enhancing creativity to solving real-world problems.
  2. In 2023, Generative AI saw explosive growth, with a significant number of organizations implementing it in various business functions.
  3. Expected trends in 2024 for Generative AI include more advanced language models, more creative applications, and increased focus on ethical and responsible considerations.
The Algorithmic Bridge • 212 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
  1. Moral fashions restrict what can be said and thought about, and going against them can lead to serious consequences.
  2. In AI communities, there are unspoken beliefs and ideas that people hesitate to express publicly, even within their own groups.
  3. Challenging current moral fashions in AI can lead to uncovering important future truths and insights.
In My Tribe • 91 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
  1. Compound AI systems are proving more effective than individual AI models, showing that combining different components can lead to better results.
  2. Providing extensive context can enhance AI capabilities, enabling new use cases and more effective training through models like Sora.
  3. The emergence of an AI computer virus is predicted to become a major concern, potentially causing widespread panic and technological shutdowns.
Fintech Wrap Up • 216 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
  1. Bitcoin ETF trades exceeded $4.6 billion, a substantial milestone.
  2. Most banks faced a tough year except JPMorgan, thriving in profits.
  3. Prediction for 2024 suggests Shopify may acquire Stripe for strategic growth.
thezvi • 2454 implied HN points • 28 Mar 23
  1. Predictions about the future are hard, especially about technological advancements like AI.
  2. Existential risks from AI should not be underestimated, as they can lead to potentially negative outcomes.
  3. It is important to carefully consider the consequences of advancing AI technology and not rush into decisions that may have long-term impacts.
BrXnd Dispatch • 137 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
  1. Computers operate deterministically, following specific algorithms to produce consistent results.
  2. Contrary to computers, AI models rely on probability to predict outputs, leading to non-deterministic behavior.
  3. The concept of hallucinations in AI highlights the uncertainties and associations generated by models, similar to how brands are perceived as bundles of ideas and associations.
Myth Pilot • 1257 implied HN points • 20 Apr 23
  1. Nuclear War Simulator provides insight into the devastating impacts of a nuclear conflict.
  2. Surviving a nuclear war would lead to a vastly different world, with changes in demographics, government, and society.
  3. Post-nuclear world powers are likely to shift, with countries like China, Japan, and India emerging as key players.
Situation Normal • 115 implied HN points • 07 Jan 24
  1. Predictions made for 2024 include fun and relatable scenarios.
  2. The predictions range from daily life experiences to societal trends.
  3. The author humorously forecasts events like excessive cream cheese on bagels and ongoing struggles with technology.
The Leftovers • 119 implied HN points • 30 Dec 23
  1. The author reflects on their writing journey in 2023, touching on the challenges and aspirations of writing for a living but not yet making enough income from it.
  2. The author shares their top ten favorite pieces written in 2023, discussing various topics from AI in art to the struggles of indie writers in the literary world.
  3. Predictions for 2024 include memoirs and Substacks created by AI, highlighting the evolving nature of technology's impact on self-expression and literature.
Inverted J Curves • 78 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
  1. Global VC investments decreased in 2023, especially in European tech.
  2. Funding for European early-stage companies remained steady, with higher valuations at pre-Series A companies.
  3. In the New Nordics, climate tech attracted the most funding, with predictions for a fundraising frenzy in 2024 and higher bar for early-stage funding.