The hottest Predictions Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Technology Topics

Your Emotional Support Historian

Campaign Trails • 4844 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Predictions Polling Political History Campaigns
  1. Historians are trained to look back at events, not predict the future. They often find it tricky to offer reassurance during election seasons.
  2. Making confident predictions can lead to embarrassment, as history shows many past predictions were wrong. This causes historians to be cautious when discussing possible outcomes.
  3. Predictions about elections are often unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt. The best approach is to focus on getting people to vote rather than getting caught up in the predictions.

Goldman Sachs Thinks We Will Have A Decade-Long Bear Market — I Disagree With Them

The Pomp Letter • 839 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Debt Management Predictions
  1. Goldman Sachs predicts a long bear market for the next decade, but some believe we're actually in a bull market. Data suggests stocks could do well in the near future.
  2. The U.S. is facing a significant increase in national debt, which affects the economy. This surge in debt could lead to currency devaluation.
  3. Long-term, the impact of currency debasement will overshadow other economic factors, like stock valuations. It’s important to stay aware of these financial trends.

25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI

Marcus on AI • 8181 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Predictions Safety Regulation
  1. In 2025, we still won't have genius-level AI like 'artificial general intelligence,' despite ongoing hype. Many experts believe it is still a long way off.
  2. Profits from AI companies are likely to stay low or nonexistent. However, companies that make the hardware for AI, like chips, will continue to do well.
  3. Generative AI will keep having problems, like making mistakes and being inconsistent, which will hold back its reliability and wide usage.

And The '24-25 NBA Champion Will Be...

Knicks Film School • 654 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Basketball Athletes Teams Predictions
  1. The NBA is seeing rising scoring trends, but this might change as the league is allowing more physical play. This could lead to lower scoring games in the upcoming season.
  2. There are discussions about adding players to teams, with specific names being considered for roster spots due to injuries and team needs.
  3. Former Knicks player Jamal Crawford will be joining the broadcast team, providing commentary for about ten games next season.

Will China Invade Taiwan? Will Trump Keep His Promises? And Is Polyamory Finally Out?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1850 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Predictions Policy Culture
  1. Trump's administration might push for stricter immigration policies, which could lead to more families self-deporting rather than mass deportations.
  2. Expect tariffs and trade actions from Trump, but major shifts in government spending on programs like Social Security and Medicare are unlikely.
  3. Prepare for changes in language and culture, with new trends in both areas as 2025 unfolds.
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An epidemic of weirdly precise AI butt facts

Marcus on AI • 4703 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🕹 Technology AI Investments Future Trends Innovation Predictions
  1. Elon Musk and others often make bold claims about AI's future, but many of these predictions lack proper evidence and are overly optimistic.
  2. Investors are drawn to grand stories about AI that promise big returns, even when the details are vague and uncertain.
  3. The exact benefits of advanced AI, like machines being thousands of times smarter, are unclear, and it's important to question how that would actually be useful.

Prediction is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1089 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Predictions Government Policy International relations
  1. Making predictions about the future is really hard and can be very humbling. It's often surprising how wrong we can be when looking back at our guesses.
  2. Some predictions that rely on complex models don't always give us the best answers. Sometimes, simpler insights work better for making quick decisions.
  3. Evaluating how well we did with our predictions can help us learn. It's important to look back and see where we were right or wrong to improve for next time.

Try The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest

Astral Codex Ten • 3854 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🔬 Science Forecasting Predictions Technology Research Competition
  1. The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest is now open for predictions. It's a great opportunity for anyone interested to share their forecasts on various topics.
  2. This year, there are new forecasting bots participating, and it'll be exciting to see how they compare to top human forecasters. The contest wants to explore how well these bots can predict outcomes.
  3. The questions this year are designed to be interesting and relevant, so many people can take part. The contest aims to engage everyone's thoughts on important issues.

20 Predictions For AI in 2025

The Algorithmic Bridge • 573 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Predictions Geopolitics Business Innovation
  1. Geopolitical issues are becoming more important than concerns about AI posing a threat to humanity. The struggle between democracy and authoritarianism will be at the forefront.
  2. AI advancements will lead to new products and services, with some expected to be quite expensive. However, there won't be a significant drop in jobs due to AI progress.
  3. Not all AI challenges will be solved, and mistakes will still happen. Even as AI improves, it will occasionally produce incorrect or 'hallucinated' information.

Predictions and Prophecies for 2025

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 2601 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Predictions Geopolitics Military conflict Political Analysis
  1. The petrodollar system is declining, which could change how countries trade oil. This could cause major shifts in global finance.
  2. There’s a lot of conflict happening around the world, and some believe we might already be in World War III, though experts mostly disagree.
  3. The upcoming presidency will be crucial for America. There are concerns about potential economic collapse and global conflict affecting the country.

Will Search Engine Traffic Really Drop 25% by 2026, As Gartner Predicts?

Big Technology • 6004 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Search Engines AI Predictions Business impact Content Strategy
  1. Gartner predicts a 25% drop in traditional search engine traffic by 2026, with AI chatbots and virtual agents gaining more traction.
  2. The decline in search engine traffic could significantly impact major players like Google and potentially lead to a shift in web navigation towards chatbots and away from traditional search.
  3. The prediction of a decline in search traffic raises questions about the future of web content strategy and the role of individual web pages in the era of AI-driven answer engines.

My Hall of Fame Predictions

JoeBlogs • 2024 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions
  1. The author predicts Adrián Beltré will be elected into the Hall of Fame with a high percentage.
  2. The author introduces the concept of 'Hock Score' to measure a player's popularity at the Hall of Fame.
  3. The author plans to engage readers with a discussion thread and video related to the Hall of Fame ballot.

AI predictions for 2025

Artificial Ignorance • 126 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Predictions Innovation Models Regulation
  1. In 2025, AI will focus more on improving reasoning abilities rather than just building larger models. This means smarter, more capable AI that can think through problems better.
  2. Expect personalized AI experiences to get better, with chatbots that can truly remember and learn about you. This could change how we interact with AI in our daily lives.
  3. There will likely be more AI 'agents' in workplaces, especially for customer service and sales, but many won't live up to the hype. We may see both benefits and gaps in their performance.

Crazy bets on 2025 - 12 personal hedge funds predict the year

Five Links (and three graphs) by Auren Hoffman • 56 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Predictions Economics Betting Market Analysis
  1. A group of twelve people made predictions about 2025 and placed bets on the outcomes. This makes it fun and competitive to see who can guess the future better.
  2. Last year's predictions didn't go well overall, with only a few being correct. It shows that forecasting the future can be really tricky.
  3. This year, they have some bold predictions about events in politics, the economy, and culture. Some predictions sound far-fetched, but others seem more likely.

Two of Your Predictions for 2024 and Why They Are Probably Not Correct

Mathworlds • 1375 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
🚌 Education EdTech Generative AI Predictions
  1. Generative AI tools may not eliminate 90% of teachers' administrative tasks by 2024 according to a teacher survey.
  2. AI tutors evolving to become great is another prediction for 2024, but their widespread success remains uncertain.
  3. It's crucial for edtech developers to create tools that truly meet the practical needs of teachers and students, as indicated by survey results.

Mantic Monday 7/31/23: Room Temperature Superforecaster

Astral Codex Ten • 6056 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
🕹 Technology Markets Predictions Regulations Cryptocurrency
  1. CFTC's regulation on prediction markets sparks debate about potential rigging of US elections
  2. There is curiosity and activity in predicting the possibility of a room temperature superconductor
  3. PredictIt faces legal challenges but gets a stay of execution, highlighting the complexities in regulating real-money prediction markets

Predictions for AI in 2025

Generating Conversation • 46 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Predictions Applications Model development Investment Trends
  1. AI applications will become essential for businesses. Companies that don't adopt AI might struggle to keep up with competition.
  2. Investments in AI are expected to stay steady or increase. This means more money will flow into AI startups and technologies in the coming year.
  3. Foundation models will improve, but there may be fewer new releases. Companies will focus on enhancing existing models rather than just creating new ones.

2025 Predictions

The Corbett Report • 28 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Predictions Climate Policy AI Impact Public Opinion Conspiracy Theories
  1. 2025 is expected to be a major year for AI, likely bringing an increase in AI-related news and developments. It's essential to stay informed about how AI is changing the landscape around us.
  2. There is a growing shift in public opinion against the climate crisis narratives, with people realizing the realities behind climate policies and backing away from extreme measures. This indicates a potential retreat from aggressive environmental agendas.
  3. There is hope for unity among various groups who believe in conspiracy realities. People are encouraged to come together, share ideas, and work towards freedom and solution-oriented actions.

Total Nuclear Death

Myth Pilot • 1257 implied HN points • 20 Apr 23
📰 News War Survival Government Predictions
  1. Nuclear War Simulator provides insight into the devastating impacts of a nuclear conflict.
  2. Surviving a nuclear war would lead to a vastly different world, with changes in demographics, government, and society.
  3. Post-nuclear world powers are likely to shift, with countries like China, Japan, and India emerging as key players.

Response to Tyler Cowen's Existential risk, AI, and the inevitable turn in human history

Don't Worry About the Vase • 2464 implied HN points • 28 Mar 23
🕹 Technology AI Predictions Ethics Innovation Future
  1. Predictions about the future are hard, especially about technological advancements like AI.
  2. Existential risks from AI should not be underestimated, as they can lead to potentially negative outcomes.
  3. It is important to carefully consider the consequences of advancing AI technology and not rush into decisions that may have long-term impacts.

Are experts useless?

Samstack • 1422 implied HN points • 13 Sep 23
🔬 Science Research Replication Experts Predictions Academia
  1. Experts may not be as reliable as we think, with evidence showing they often fare poorly compared to ordinary individuals in making predictions.
  2. There's a growing concern about fraud and publication bias in scientific journals, undermining the credibility of experts' work.
  3. While skepticism towards expertise is warranted, there are strategies for the average person to evaluate research validity and experts can still provide valuable insights.

How to sell bread with quantile regression

Mindful Modeler • 339 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Machine Learning Data science Modeling Predictions
  1. Quantile regression can be used for robust modeling to handle outliers and predict tail behavior, helping in scenarios where underestimation or overestimation leads to loss.
  2. It is important to choose quantile regression when predicting specific quantiles, such as upper quantiles, for scenarios like bread sales where under or overestimating can have financial impacts.
  3. Quantile regression can also be utilized for uncertainty quantification, and combining it with conformal prediction can improve coverage, making it useful for understanding and managing uncertainty in predictions.

Generative AI: What Happened, Where It's Going 2023-2024

Rod’s Blog • 416 implied HN points • 19 Dec 23
🕹 Technology AI Predictions Applications Ethics Regulation
  1. Generative AI is rapidly advancing and has a wide range of applications from enhancing creativity to solving real-world problems.
  2. In 2023, Generative AI saw explosive growth, with a significant number of organizations implementing it in various business functions.
  3. Expected trends in 2024 for Generative AI include more advanced language models, more creative applications, and increased focus on ethical and responsible considerations.

Will AI transform law?

AI Snake Oil • 648 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Legal Predictions Research Evaluation
  1. The idea of AI replacing lawyers is plausible but not well-supported by current evidence.
  2. Applications of AI in law can be categorized into information processing, creativity/judgment tasks, and predicting the future.
  3. Evaluation of AI in law needs to advance beyond static benchmarks to real-world deployment scenarios.

Mid-Year Crypto Outlook 2023

DeFi Education • 679 implied HN points • 02 Jul 23
🔮 Crypto Market Trends Investments Regulations Technology Predictions
  1. 2023 has been a strong year for crypto, with the best first half for prices since 2019. Bitcoin is trading above $30,000, showing good market momentum.
  2. There is growing interest from major financial institutions, like the world's largest asset manager, seeking to offer Bitcoin ETFs. This could boost the legitimacy and adoption of crypto.
  3. The overall sentiment in the market is positive, but it's important to stay cautious and informed about potential future changes in regulations and market dynamics.

2024 March Madness predictions

Silver Bulletin • 410 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🎾 Sports Tournament Predictions College Basketball Analysis
  1. The 2024 March Madness predictions suggest Connecticut is the favorite to repeat as champs, but with only a 23% chance. Other top contenders include Purdue, Arizona, and Houston.
  2. The model used for the predictions is based on a composite of power ratings with adjustments for injuries and travel distance. It also considers preseason rankings to enhance predictive accuracy.
  3. The East region is highlighted as a chalky region with potential for upsets in certain games, like the 7-10 upset pick. The winner from this region will face the winner from the livelier West region in the Final Four.