The hottest Predictions Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Technology Topics

2026 Women's March Madness Predictions

Silver Bulletin • 93 implied HN points • 24 Mar 26
🎾 Sports Predictions
  1. The top four #1 seeds (UConn, South Carolina, Texas, and UCLA) dominate the title odds this year, accounting for about a 93% combined chance to win.
  2. UConn is especially dominant and undefeated with a very high COOPER rating, so early-round upsets against them would require something to go very wrong.
  3. Still, strong contenders like UCLA, Texas, South Carolina, and LSU could challenge in the later rounds, creating the potential for exciting matchups even if upsets remain unlikely.

Your Emotional Support Historian

Campaign Trails • 4844 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Predictions
  1. Historians are trained to look back at events, not predict the future. They often find it tricky to offer reassurance during election seasons.
  2. Making confident predictions can lead to embarrassment, as history shows many past predictions were wrong. This causes historians to be cautious when discussing possible outcomes.
  3. Predictions about elections are often unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt. The best approach is to focus on getting people to vote rather than getting caught up in the predictions.

Goldman Sachs Thinks We Will Have A Decade-Long Bear Market — I Disagree With Them

The Pomp Letter • 839 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
💰 Finance Predictions
  1. Goldman Sachs predicts a long bear market for the next decade, but some believe we're actually in a bull market. Data suggests stocks could do well in the near future.
  2. The U.S. is facing a significant increase in national debt, which affects the economy. This surge in debt could lead to currency devaluation.
  3. Long-term, the impact of currency debasement will overshadow other economic factors, like stock valuations. It’s important to stay aware of these financial trends.

Oscars 2026 - Thoughts & Predictions

Obvious Bicycle • 328 implied HN points • 15 Mar 26
🎭️ Culture Predictions
  1. One Battle After Another is the predicted Best Picture winner despite Sinners’ record nominations and recent wins, while Marty Supreme is widely regarded by many as the best film but is unlikely to take the top prize.
  2. Best Actor looks like the night’s wild card — Timothée Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan are the main frontrunners and a DiCaprio upset is possible, with Chalamet slightly favored in most predictions.
  3. Technical and craft awards are expected to be split mainly between Sinners and One Battle After Another, with Marty Supreme strong in editing and score, and there’s a broader sense that the Academy is playing it safe by concentrating nominations and wins among a small group of films.

And The '24-25 NBA Champion Will Be...

Knicks Film School • 654 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Predictions
  1. The NBA is seeing rising scoring trends, but this might change as the league is allowing more physical play. This could lead to lower scoring games in the upcoming season.
  2. There are discussions about adding players to teams, with specific names being considered for roster spots due to injuries and team needs.
  3. Former Knicks player Jamal Crawford will be joining the broadcast team, providing commentary for about ten games next season.
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25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI

Marcus on AI • 8181 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. In 2025, we still won't have genius-level AI like 'artificial general intelligence,' despite ongoing hype. Many experts believe it is still a long way off.
  2. Profits from AI companies are likely to stay low or nonexistent. However, companies that make the hardware for AI, like chips, will continue to do well.
  3. Generative AI will keep having problems, like making mistakes and being inconsistent, which will hold back its reliability and wide usage.

My Hall of Fame Predictions

JoeBlogs • 2024 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Predictions
  1. The author predicts Adrián Beltré will be elected into the Hall of Fame with a high percentage.
  2. The author introduces the concept of 'Hock Score' to measure a player's popularity at the Hall of Fame.
  3. The author plans to engage readers with a discussion thread and video related to the Hall of Fame ballot.

Try The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest

Astral Codex Ten • 3854 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🔬 Science Predictions
  1. The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest is now open for predictions. It's a great opportunity for anyone interested to share their forecasts on various topics.
  2. This year, there are new forecasting bots participating, and it'll be exciting to see how they compare to top human forecasters. The contest wants to explore how well these bots can predict outcomes.
  3. The questions this year are designed to be interesting and relevant, so many people can take part. The contest aims to engage everyone's thoughts on important issues.

An epidemic of weirdly precise AI butt facts

Marcus on AI • 4703 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. Elon Musk and others often make bold claims about AI's future, but many of these predictions lack proper evidence and are overly optimistic.
  2. Investors are drawn to grand stories about AI that promise big returns, even when the details are vague and uncertain.
  3. The exact benefits of advanced AI, like machines being thousands of times smarter, are unclear, and it's important to question how that would actually be useful.

Two of Your Predictions for 2024 and Why They Are Probably Not Correct

Mathworlds • 1375 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
🚌 Education Predictions
  1. Generative AI tools may not eliminate 90% of teachers' administrative tasks by 2024 according to a teacher survey.
  2. AI tutors evolving to become great is another prediction for 2024, but their widespread success remains uncertain.
  3. It's crucial for edtech developers to create tools that truly meet the practical needs of teachers and students, as indicated by survey results.

Predictions and Prophecies for 2025

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 2601 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Predictions
  1. The petrodollar system is declining, which could change how countries trade oil. This could cause major shifts in global finance.
  2. There’s a lot of conflict happening around the world, and some believe we might already be in World War III, though experts mostly disagree.
  3. The upcoming presidency will be crucial for America. There are concerns about potential economic collapse and global conflict affecting the country.

Will Search Engine Traffic Really Drop 25% by 2026, As Gartner Predicts?

Big Technology • 6004 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. Gartner predicts a 25% drop in traditional search engine traffic by 2026, with AI chatbots and virtual agents gaining more traction.
  2. The decline in search engine traffic could significantly impact major players like Google and potentially lead to a shift in web navigation towards chatbots and away from traditional search.
  3. The prediction of a decline in search traffic raises questions about the future of web content strategy and the role of individual web pages in the era of AI-driven answer engines.

Will China Invade Taiwan? Will Trump Keep His Promises? And Is Polyamory Finally Out?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1850 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Predictions
  1. Trump's administration might push for stricter immigration policies, which could lead to more families self-deporting rather than mass deportations.
  2. Expect tariffs and trade actions from Trump, but major shifts in government spending on programs like Social Security and Medicare are unlikely.
  3. Prepare for changes in language and culture, with new trends in both areas as 2025 unfolds.

Total Nuclear Death

Myth Pilot • 1257 implied HN points • 20 Apr 23
📰 News Predictions
  1. Nuclear War Simulator provides insight into the devastating impacts of a nuclear conflict.
  2. Surviving a nuclear war would lead to a vastly different world, with changes in demographics, government, and society.
  3. Post-nuclear world powers are likely to shift, with countries like China, Japan, and India emerging as key players.

Could 2025 see the largest cyberattack in history?

Marcus on AI • 1462 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. There is a possibility that 2025 could experience a major cyberattack. This could be one of the biggest attacks in history.
  2. Generative AI might play a role in this cyberattack, highlighting its potential risks.
  3. Experts are discussing various unpredictable events that could impact life in 2025, with the cyberattack being one of them.

Prediction is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1089 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Predictions
  1. Making predictions about the future is really hard and can be very humbling. It's often surprising how wrong we can be when looking back at our guesses.
  2. Some predictions that rely on complex models don't always give us the best answers. Sometimes, simpler insights work better for making quick decisions.
  3. Evaluating how well we did with our predictions can help us learn. It's important to look back and see where we were right or wrong to improve for next time.

How to sell bread with quantile regression

Mindful Modeler • 339 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. Quantile regression can be used for robust modeling to handle outliers and predict tail behavior, helping in scenarios where underestimation or overestimation leads to loss.
  2. It is important to choose quantile regression when predicting specific quantiles, such as upper quantiles, for scenarios like bread sales where under or overestimating can have financial impacts.
  3. Quantile regression can also be utilized for uncertainty quantification, and combining it with conformal prediction can improve coverage, making it useful for understanding and managing uncertainty in predictions.

Generative AI: What Happened, Where It's Going 2023-2024

Rod’s Blog • 416 implied HN points • 19 Dec 23
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. Generative AI is rapidly advancing and has a wide range of applications from enhancing creativity to solving real-world problems.
  2. In 2023, Generative AI saw explosive growth, with a significant number of organizations implementing it in various business functions.
  3. Expected trends in 2024 for Generative AI include more advanced language models, more creative applications, and increased focus on ethical and responsible considerations.

Eight predictions for 2024

Read Max • 2344 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
💰 Finance Predictions
  1. The chatbot bubble may burst as they are not very useful for most people
  2. Internet atheist culture could see a revival due to a desire to counteract obscurantism online
  3. At least one big e/acc influencer on Twitter may have a meltdown and lock his account

Mid-Year Crypto Outlook 2023

DeFi Education • 679 implied HN points • 02 Jul 23
🔮 Crypto Predictions
  1. 2023 has been a strong year for crypto, with the best first half for prices since 2019. Bitcoin is trading above $30,000, showing good market momentum.
  2. There is growing interest from major financial institutions, like the world's largest asset manager, seeking to offer Bitcoin ETFs. This could boost the legitimacy and adoption of crypto.
  3. The overall sentiment in the market is positive, but it's important to stay cautious and informed about potential future changes in regulations and market dynamics.

2023 Bold Predictions

Stealing Signals • 559 implied HN points • 03 Sep 23
🎾 Sports Predictions
  1. Amon-Ra St. Brown aiming for 120 receptions, a rare achievement in recent years
  2. Garrett Wilson predicted to catch 14 touchdowns, showcasing his high potential
  3. Breece Hall expected to be a top-three RB starting from Week 8

20 Predictions For AI in 2025

The Algorithmic Bridge • 573 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. Geopolitical issues are becoming more important than concerns about AI posing a threat to humanity. The struggle between democracy and authoritarianism will be at the forefront.
  2. AI advancements will lead to new products and services, with some expected to be quite expensive. However, there won't be a significant drop in jobs due to AI progress.
  3. Not all AI challenges will be solved, and mistakes will still happen. Even as AI improves, it will occasionally produce incorrect or 'hallucinated' information.

Grading Extropian Predictions

Maximum Progress • 373 implied HN points • 03 Jun 23
🔬 Science Predictions
  1. Extropians are a group of influential futurists with high-profile members.
  2. Extropians made predictions with mixed accuracy, often being overly optimistic.
  3. Some Extropian predictions showed potential for accuracy, but overall their optimism sometimes led to incorrect forecasts.

Response to Tyler Cowen's Existential risk, AI, and the inevitable turn in human history

Don't Worry About the Vase • 2464 implied HN points • 28 Mar 23
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. Predictions about the future are hard, especially about technological advancements like AI.
  2. Existential risks from AI should not be underestimated, as they can lead to potentially negative outcomes.
  3. It is important to carefully consider the consequences of advancing AI technology and not rush into decisions that may have long-term impacts.

Are experts useless?

Samstack • 1422 implied HN points • 13 Sep 23
🔬 Science Predictions
  1. Experts may not be as reliable as we think, with evidence showing they often fare poorly compared to ordinary individuals in making predictions.
  2. There's a growing concern about fraud and publication bias in scientific journals, undermining the credibility of experts' work.
  3. While skepticism towards expertise is warranted, there are strategies for the average person to evaluate research validity and experts can still provide valuable insights.

On Non-Determinism // BrXnd Dispatch vol. 35

BrXnd Dispatch • 137 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. Computers operate deterministically, following specific algorithms to produce consistent results.
  2. Contrary to computers, AI models rely on probability to predict outputs, leading to non-deterministic behavior.
  3. The concept of hallucinations in AI highlights the uncertainties and associations generated by models, similar to how brands are perceived as bundles of ideas and associations.