The hottest Uncertainty Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Why is it so hard to know if you're helping?

The Intrinsic Perspective • 14053 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Charity Malaria Effectiveness Donations Uncertainty
  1. It's challenging to determine if our help is truly making a difference, like with sending aid to Africa.
  2. The effectiveness of interventions like distributing bed nets for malaria prevention in Africa is uncertain due to various factors like misuse.
  3. The academic literature on the impact of interventions like bed nets shows mixed results, making it difficult to confidently measure the lives saved.

AI: Practical Advice for the Worried

Don't Worry About the Vase • 2419 implied HN points • 01 Mar 23
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Investing Careers Uncertainty
  1. There are good reasons to worry about AI, but also reasons to be skeptical of imminent transformative AI.
  2. People often struggle to react appropriately to worrying AI information, either ignoring the risks or overreacting.
  3. In the face of AI uncertainties, living a 'normal' life is still valuable and preparing for the unknown while staying flexible is crucial.

Definitely, Insha'allah, Or How I Learned to Love Uncertainty

Caravanserai with Samantha Childress • 530 implied HN points • 19 May 23
⛪ Faith & Spirituality Belief Practice Uncertainty Acceptance
  1. In uncertain situations, embrace unpredictability and find empowerment in accepting the unknown.
  2. The phrase 'Insha'allah' in Egypt reflects a cultural attitude of polite noncommitment and acknowledgement of life's unpredictability.
  3. Living in a place like Cairo, where randomness reigns, teaches the value of surrendering to chaos and finding happiness in uncertainty.
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The Long and the Short of It

The Good Life • 314 implied HN points • 30 Oct 23
📖 Philosophy Life Time Long term Uncertainty
  1. Consider balancing short-term and long-term perspectives in life decisions.
  2. Reflect on how you would spend your time if you had limited time left versus if you had a long life ahead, and incorporate elements of both into your planning.
  3. Strive to find a middle ground between living for the moment and preparing for the future to lead a fulfilling life.

A Pragmatic View of Uncertainty in Machine Learning

Mindful Modeler • 359 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Machine Learning Uncertainty Modeling Prediction Calibration
  1. Machine learning models have uncertainty in predictions, categorized into aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
  2. Defining and distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty is a complex task influenced by deterministic and random factors.
  3. Conformal prediction methods capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, providing prediction intervals reflecting model uncertainty.

The edge of reason

Logging the World • 219 implied HN points • 28 Dec 22
🔬 Science Mathematics Models Analogies Limitations Uncertainty
  1. When adding numbers, there are basic properties like getting another number, having a special zero that doesn't change sums, and having partners that return to zero when added.
  2. Mathematicians use abstraction to find essential properties, like in groups, to study various systems efficiently and effectively.
  3. Seeking historical analogies in current events can be misleading; it's important to understand the limitations of models and not be overconfident in applying mathematical rules to real-world situations.

Navigating Uncertainty: Fostering Innovation in Times of Change

UX Psychology • 138 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Uncertainty Psychology Research Strategies Personal Growth
  1. Uncertainty can lead to stress and anxiety, impacting individual and team performance.
  2. Reframing uncertainty positively can spark creativity, growth, and better adaptation to change.
  3. Strategies for managing uncertainty include focusing on what can be controlled, embracing experimentation, celebrating small wins, fostering psychological safety, transparent communication, and reminding of organizational purpose.

Reading the game

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 119 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23
📖 Philosophy Risk Uncertainty Decision-making Game Theory Innovation
  1. Most games are about taking risks rather than dealing with true uncertainty. In games, the rules and winning conditions are usually clear.
  2. Understanding the difference between risky situations and those filled with true uncertainty is important. Real-life problems, like climate change, involve a lot more unknowns.
  3. To get better at handling uncertainty, we should expose ourselves regularly to uncertain situations. This helps us learn and grow in a world that often feels unpredictable.

Conformal Prediction is Available in Print 🥳

Mindful Modeler • 159 implied HN points • 07 Mar 23
🕹 Technology Machine Learning Books Uncertainty Python Statistics
  1. Conformal prediction quantifies uncertainty in machine learning models by producing prediction sets or intervals.
  2. Conformal prediction offers a way to get reliable uncertainty quantification by calibrating the uncertainty score of ML models.
  3. The book 'Introduction to Conformal Prediction With Python' serves as a practical and easy-to-understand resource to learn about this uncertainty quantification method.

Understanding Different Uncertainty Mindsets

Mindful Modeler • 179 implied HN points • 24 Jan 23
🔬 Science Probability Modeling Uncertainty Machine Learning Statistics
  1. Understanding the fundamental difference between Bayesian and frequentist interpretations of probability is crucial for grasping uncertainty quantification techniques.
  2. Conformal prediction offers prediction regions with a frequentist interpretation, similar to confidence intervals in linear regression models.
  3. Conformal prediction shares similarities with the evaluation requirements and mindset of supervised machine learning, emphasizing the importance of separate calibration and ground truth data.

Introducing not-knowing.

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 199 implied HN points • 11 Jan 23
📖 Philosophy Uncertainty Knowledge Decision-making Existentialism Cognition
  1. Understanding not-knowing helps us deal with uncertainty in our lives. It’s important to recognize that we often face different types of not-knowing that affect our decision-making.
  2. The world is more interconnected today, which means uncertainties can spread faster. We need to be aware that one issue in one part of the world can quickly impact others.
  3. It's important to accept that we can't know everything. Recognizing our limits can help us manage our emotions better and make clearer decisions in uncertain situations.

8 Pitfalls To Avoid When Interpreting Machine Learning Models

Mindful Modeler • 159 implied HN points • 18 Oct 22
🕹 Technology Machine Learning Uncertainty
  1. Different interpretation methods have different goals, so define your interpretation goal first and then choose the appropriate method.
  2. Ensure your model generalizes well by using proper out-of-sample evaluation like cross-validation.
  3. Consider using simpler models for better interpretability and always analyze and correct for dependencies and uncertainties in your interpretation.

Naming risky situations

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 99 implied HN points • 03 May 23
📖 Philosophy Decision-making Uncertainty Epistemology
  1. The term 'risk' is often misunderstood and misused. Many people think it means a situation where we know some things but don't know the outcome, even though true risk is much rarer.
  2. Decision-making strategies designed for formal risk scenarios may not work well in real-life situations, which often involve many unknowns. This can lead to poor choices when we apply the wrong approach.
  3. Different people define 'risk' in various ways, which creates confusion in communication. It’s important to clarify what we mean when we talk about risk to make better decisions.

Overloading and appropriation

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 39 implied HN points • 17 May 23
📖 Philosophy Language Knowledge Epistemology Uncertainty
  1. Overloading 'risk' means using the word for many situations that aren't really risky. This can lead to confusion and poor decision-making because we apply the wrong methods to deal with those situations.
  2. Appropriating 'uncertainty' refers to using the term in ways that suggest it can be easily measured or controlled. This misleads us into thinking we can manage all unknowns when some can't be quantified and should be treated differently.
  3. Both overloading and appropriation give us a false sense of comfort. They make scary unknown situations feel more manageable when, in reality, we might be ignoring important nuances.

How To Estimate An Engineering Project (Or Really Any Project)

Throwable • 19 implied HN points • 03 Sep 23
🕹 Technology Engineering Uncertainty Team Collaboration
  1. Estimating projects is not impossible, but relies on understanding uncertainties and mapping outcomes to a distribution curve.
  2. Providing project estimates as a range with an error rate is a more accurate way than giving a specific date.
  3. Reducing uncertainty in a project can help narrow the estimate range and improve predictability of outcomes.

#3: Reality mining

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 139 implied HN points • 20 Nov 19
💼 Business Strategy Innovation Education Uncertainty Creativity
  1. Negative capability helps you handle uncertainty without getting stuck. It's about being okay with not knowing everything while still taking action.
  2. There are two types of negative capability: soldier-on, which helps you push forward despite uncertainty, and beginner-mind, which lets you see new values and possibilities in what's already around you.
  3. In a world that values innovation, embracing a flexible mindset allows you to find creative solutions and make the most of the resources you have at hand.

#27: Ambient uncertainty, Part 1

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 99 implied HN points • 06 May 20
📖 Philosophy Uncertainty Mindset Psychology Routine
  1. Life can feel uncertain and unpredictable, especially during tough times. Finding joy in small daily victories helps us cope with this unpredictability.
  2. Being used to a predictable routine makes sudden changes feel scary. We need to build up our comfort with uncertainty so we can handle bigger challenges better.
  3. Creating small surprises or fun moments in our daily routines can help us look forward to the unexpected. This way, we can embrace uncertainty instead of fearing it.

#44: The long view

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 59 implied HN points • 02 Sep 20
💼 Business Strategy Adaptability Innovation Leadership Uncertainty
  1. Long-term thinking is important, but it can trick us into believing we fully understand the future. We need to be aware that the future is still uncertain.
  2. Zooming out to look at the big picture can lead us to mistakenly think that everything is knowable and predictable, which is not the case.
  3. We should adopt an uncertainty mindset, especially now, as recent events have shown us that future changes can be sudden and unexpected.

Peak Performance Newsletter # 15 | Hindsight Bias & Phase Changes in the Developmental Process

The Leadership Lab • 19 implied HN points • 29 Nov 21
📖 Philosophy Human Development Uncertainty Creativity Self-compassion Philosophical Concepts
  1. Problems in personal development are often misunderstood as errors, but they are signs of evolution. New challenges indicate growth, not past mistakes.
  2. Breakthroughs in learning and development can be sudden and disorienting. They require acceptance of uncertainty and the creation of new tools.
  3. Having 'negative capability', the capacity to embrace confusion and uncertainty, is essential for pursuing greatness and adapting to challenges.

#35: Patterning, herding, programming

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 39 implied HN points • 01 Jul 20
📖 Philosophy Uncertainty Risk Innovation Human behavior Collective action
  1. People struggle to see uncertainty because they rely on patterns from the past to predict the future. This can lead to a false sense of security when the future is actually unpredictable.
  2. We tend to follow the crowd and adopt the beliefs of those around us. If everyone thinks the future will be fine, we may ignore our own doubts.
  3. Our daily lives teach us to think about risk rather than true uncertainty. This makes it hard for us to prepare for unexpected changes, limiting our ability to innovate and adapt.

The problem with isochrones: overcoming false precision in drive time maps

Expand Mapping with Mike Morrow • 3 HN points • 15 Dec 23
🔬 Science Mapping Accuracy Uncertainty Transport Data Visualization
  1. Drive time isochrones can give a false sense of precision because they are based on average traffic conditions, which can vary greatly.
  2. Improving isochrone accuracy can be done by increasing the number of trips, testing different conditions, and varied departure angles.
  3. To better communicate uncertainty, consider simplifying isochrone shapes and creating bands to show the range of possible outcomes.

#8: voluntary uncertainty

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 19 implied HN points • 25 Dec 19
📖 Philosophy Mindset Uncertainty Decision-making Self-Improvement Cognition
  1. People can get overwhelmed by uncertainty, especially when it's continuous, like through events such as Brexit. They might feel a sense of fatigue that makes it hard to deal with new uncertainties.
  2. Practicing 'voluntary uncertainty' means putting yourself in situations where you choose to not know the outcome. This could be trying new things or making changes in life, and it helps you become better at handling real uncertainties.
  3. Organizations and individuals who get used to managing uncertainty can adapt and innovate better. They learn that not knowing everything can be a normal part of life, which helps reduce fear around unexpected changes.