The hottest Uncertainty Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Why is it so hard to know if you're helping?

The Intrinsic Perspective • 14053 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Charity Effectiveness Donations Uncertainty
  1. It's challenging to determine if our help is truly making a difference, like with sending aid to Africa.
  2. The effectiveness of interventions like distributing bed nets for malaria prevention in Africa is uncertain due to various factors like misuse.
  3. The academic literature on the impact of interventions like bed nets shows mixed results, making it difficult to confidently measure the lives saved.

AI: Practical Advice for the Worried

thezvi • 2410 implied HN points • 01 Mar 23
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Investing Careers Uncertainty
  1. There are good reasons to worry about AI, but also reasons to be skeptical of imminent transformative AI.
  2. People often struggle to react appropriately to worrying AI information, either ignoring the risks or overreacting.
  3. In the face of AI uncertainties, living a 'normal' life is still valuable and preparing for the unknown while staying flexible is crucial.
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The Long and the Short of It

The Good Life • 314 implied HN points • 30 Oct 23
📖 Philosophy Life Time Long term Uncertainty
  1. Consider balancing short-term and long-term perspectives in life decisions.
  2. Reflect on how you would spend your time if you had limited time left versus if you had a long life ahead, and incorporate elements of both into your planning.
  3. Strive to find a middle ground between living for the moment and preparing for the future to lead a fulfilling life.

Definitely, Insha'allah, Or How I Learned to Love Uncertainty

Caravanserai with Samantha Childress • 530 implied HN points • 19 May 23
⛪ Faith & Spirituality Belief Practice Uncertainty Acceptance
  1. In uncertain situations, embrace unpredictability and find empowerment in accepting the unknown.
  2. The phrase 'Insha'allah' in Egypt reflects a cultural attitude of polite noncommitment and acknowledgement of life's unpredictability.
  3. Living in a place like Cairo, where randomness reigns, teaches the value of surrendering to chaos and finding happiness in uncertainty.

Navigating Uncertainty: Fostering Innovation in Times of Change

UX Psychology • 138 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Uncertainty Psychology Research Strategies Personal Growth
  1. Uncertainty can lead to stress and anxiety, impacting individual and team performance.
  2. Reframing uncertainty positively can spark creativity, growth, and better adaptation to change.
  3. Strategies for managing uncertainty include focusing on what can be controlled, embracing experimentation, celebrating small wins, fostering psychological safety, transparent communication, and reminding of organizational purpose.

The edge of reason

Logging the World • 219 implied HN points • 28 Dec 22
🔬 Science Mathematics Models Analogies Limitations Uncertainty
  1. When adding numbers, there are basic properties like getting another number, having a special zero that doesn't change sums, and having partners that return to zero when added.
  2. Mathematicians use abstraction to find essential properties, like in groups, to study various systems efficiently and effectively.
  3. Seeking historical analogies in current events can be misleading; it's important to understand the limitations of models and not be overconfident in applying mathematical rules to real-world situations.

How To Estimate An Engineering Project (Or Really Any Project)

Throwable • 19 implied HN points • 03 Sep 23
🕹 Technology Engineering Uncertainty Team Collaboration
  1. Estimating projects is not impossible, but relies on understanding uncertainties and mapping outcomes to a distribution curve.
  2. Providing project estimates as a range with an error rate is a more accurate way than giving a specific date.
  3. Reducing uncertainty in a project can help narrow the estimate range and improve predictability of outcomes.

The problem with isochrones: overcoming false precision in drive time maps

Expand Mapping with Mike Morrow • 3 HN points • 15 Dec 23
🔬 Science Mapping Accuracy Uncertainty Transport Data Visualization
  1. Drive time isochrones can give a false sense of precision because they are based on average traffic conditions, which can vary greatly.
  2. Improving isochrone accuracy can be done by increasing the number of trips, testing different conditions, and varied departure angles.
  3. To better communicate uncertainty, consider simplifying isochrone shapes and creating bands to show the range of possible outcomes.

Peak Performance Newsletter # 15 | Hindsight Bias & Phase Changes in the Developmental Process

The Leadership Lab • 19 implied HN points • 29 Nov 21
📖 Philosophy Human Development Uncertainty Creativity Self-compassion
  1. Problems in personal development are often misunderstood as errors, but they are signs of evolution. New challenges indicate growth, not past mistakes.
  2. Breakthroughs in learning and development can be sudden and disorienting. They require acceptance of uncertainty and the creation of new tools.
  3. Having 'negative capability', the capacity to embrace confusion and uncertainty, is essential for pursuing greatness and adapting to challenges.

How to Measure Anything

TeamCraft • 0 implied HN points • 21 Aug 23
🚌 Education Measurement Uncertainty Observation Data
  1. The ability to measure anything can greatly increase your ability to estimate ROI on data initiatives and reduce uncertainty for informed decision-making.
  2. Rethink measurement by understanding that you only need to reduce uncertainty to a manageable level, not eliminate it completely.
  3. Techniques like the Rule of Five, decomposition, and challenging false assumptions about data can help in measuring intangible aspects effectively.

Economists found something surprising and you wont believe what happened next

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 15 Apr 17
🔬 Science Research Replication Uncertainty Cooperation Experimental
  1. Uncertainty can actually increase cooperation in certain situations.
  2. To address breakdowns in cooperation in scientific studies, integration mechanisms like co-authorship can increase credibility and reliability of results.
  3. In the face of surprising experimental findings, proposing new mechanisms and experiments can lead to advancements in scientific knowledge.