The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Roundup #79: The revenge of macroeconomics

Noahpinion • 19706 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. Large government borrowing can contribute to higher inflation when monetary policy accommodates it, so deficits and fiscal policy matter for price stability.
  2. If AI makes answers effortless, people may lose the incentive to learn and the shared stock of general knowledge could shrink, though AI’s errors might occasionally produce new discoveries.
  3. Blocking key shipping chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz pushes up oil and commodity prices, raising inflation and damaging oil‑using industries even as some producers profit.

February 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 147 implied HN points • 24 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation excluding rent has tracked very closely to a 2% trend for nearly four years.
  2. Rent inflation is starting to moderate, and if building more new homes remains legal it should continue easing, which would reduce pressure on the Fed.
  3. Past housing supply constraints pushed policy toward being too tight, and continued rent moderation could flip that bias toward being too loose; a congressional ban on new single-family rentals would be far more damaging to housing supply.

Do Commodities Get Cheaper Over Time?

Construction Physics • 26515 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. Over long periods most commodities—especially agricultural products and many minerals—have become cheaper in real terms because production technologies and processes improved and scaled up.
  2. In the last few decades that trend has weakened or reversed: oil, natural gas, beef, pork, and many crops have tended to rise in price since about 2000.
  3. Whether a commodity gets cheaper over time depends on how much its production can be automated and expanded (which pushes prices down) versus being limited by depletion, extraction difficulty, cartels, policy, or demand shocks (which push prices up).

Gangster affordability

Noahpinion • 15117 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. The administration is governing in a personalist, gangster-like way, using executive orders and DOJ threats to pressure independent institutions like the Federal Reserve.
  2. A main goal is to bring down living costs and boost affordability—pushing for lower interest rates and targeting specific prices like credit to improve popularity.
  3. That approach might give short-term price relief but risks big long-term costs. It can weaken institutional independence, raise inflation or instability, and lead to costly policy mistakes.

Shocking Stats About Your Purchasing Power And The US Dollar

The Pomp Letter • 559 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. The US dollar's purchasing power has decreased by 50% over the last 30 years due to inflation. This means you can buy much less with a dollar today compared to what you could in the past.
  2. Despite wage increases, the average worker is effectively earning less after adjusting for inflation. This creates a situation where even though you might see more money in your paycheck, it doesn't go as far as it used to.
  3. Many people are looking for alternative ways to store value, like Bitcoin, as traditional currencies lose purchasing power and some goods continue to rise in price.
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Can we make America feel more affordable?

Noahpinion • 12059 implied HN points • 20 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. Many Americans feel the country is becoming unaffordable and put the cost of living ahead of other big problems, even though official inflation is relatively low.
  2. Measured inflation and real wages suggest prices are rising slowly and buying power is improving, but many people still say high prices hurt their finances and don’t trust the statistics.
  3. Since the pandemic, anger about the cost of living has drifted away from inflation expectations, creating a political and policy challenge because making prices actually fall — not just rise more slowly — will be hard.

Pretty Stable

The Transcript • 59 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. The US economy is doing well with steady consumer spending and healthy household finances. People are still buying, even if the growth rate is slower than last year.
  2. There is a strong demand for jobs, especially for those with college degrees. Many companies are looking to hire, but the unemployment rate for skilled positions is still very low.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is creating some uncertainty in the markets. Once it's over, people expect a better outlook for economic policies.

Disinflation is here: But it's not the kind we want!

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. Disinflation means prices are rising more slowly, but that doesn't always mean good news. If people aren't spending because they can't afford things, it can signal trouble in the economy.
  2. The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in response to disinflation to try and encourage spending, but this might just be a way to show they are doing something without fixing the deeper issues.
  3. Sticky prices and disinflation can show that people are struggling financially. For a healthy economy, we need wages to rise so people can spend more, rather than just seeing temporary price drops.

Everyone Is Wrong About the President's Economic Impact

Sumit's Investment Takes • 99 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. There isn't just one number that shows how good or bad the economy is. You can look at things like unemployment, inflation, and GDP, but they all tell different stories.
  2. The president's actions don’t usually have an immediate effect on the economy. Many factors that affect the economy are outside their control, like market trends and global events.
  3. To really understand a president's impact on the economy, you should look at long-term policies instead of short-term data. Also, things like immigration and international relations can play a big role.

The truth about the economy

Robert Reich • 22091 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. The U.S. economy is performing well with job growth and low inflation.
  2. Corporate pricing power is keeping prices high for consumers by limiting competition.
  3. To address economic challenges, there's a need for vigorous antitrust enforcement to break up big corporations and prevent price gouging.

Jerome Powell's Scorched Earth Moment?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. Jerome Powell may be at a defining moment where his actions could have major consequences for policy and markets.
  2. Today’s Fed press conference and policy decision are especially important and worth close attention because they could shift market expectations.
  3. Detailed analysis of the situation is available only to paid subscribers, so the deeper takeaways are behind a paywall.

First Rate Cut + Q&A

DeFi Education • 779 implied HN points • 23 Aug 24
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. The Federal Reserve is making changes to its policies, indicating the economy is shifting. This could affect things like interest rates and inflation.
  2. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that they don’t want the economy to cool down too much. This suggests they are looking for a balance between growth and stability.
  3. There is a focus on the labor market and inflation, which are key indicators for the economy. These factors will influence future decisions from the Federal Reserve.

Why tariffs haven't raised inflation much (yet)

Noahpinion • 14412 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Tariffs have been raised significantly, but they haven't yet affected prices in a noticeable way. This could mean that people won't feel the impact right away.
  2. Investors seem calm about the new tariff announcements, possibly believing they will be rolled back or stopped by the courts. This suggests they don't see immediate dangers to the economy.
  3. Despite higher tariffs, actual inflation rates remain low, which raises questions about the predicted effects of these tariffs on consumer prices. People might not be paying more for goods as expected.

Making Sense of the Markets Right Now

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 1176 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. Japan’s huge debt, rising interest rates, and a weakening yen risk triggering a global unwind of yen-funded carry trades that could force selling of US Treasuries and equities.
  2. Massive government overspending and money-supply expansion are debasing fiat currencies, pushing investors and central banks to buy physical gold as a long-term store of value and weakening the dollar’s dominance.
  3. Silver faces a real physical shortage because paper contracts far exceed available metal and industrial demand is rising, causing backwardation, squeeze risk, and extreme price volatility.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.2% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 191 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. Nominal house-price indexes are at new all-time highs, but after adjusting for inflation the national index is about 2.2% below its 2022 peak and the Composite 20 is about 2.4% below.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is roughly 9.5% below its 2022 peak, which suggests prices have softened relative to rents.
  3. Real national house prices remain about 10.3% above the 2006 bubble peak. However, real prices fell about 1.3% in 2025 as rising inventory and persistent inflation put downward pressure, so it may take years for real prices to reach new highs.

Fed Should Hold Rates Steady In March

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. The Fed should hold its policy rate steady in March rather than cut, because current economic data don’t justify easing despite headline uncertainty.
  2. Monetary policy rules like the Taylor rule and nominal GDP rules point to a policy rate near 4 percent, which is above the current 3.5–3.75 percent range and suggests restraint or even a modest increase.
  3. Further rate cuts would need clear evidence — for example inflation falling toward 2 percent, unemployment rising by about a full percentage point, or a sizable drop in nominal spending — so the Fed should wait for those signals before easing.

Trump's economy is already in trouble

Noahpinion • 22765 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. The economy often struggles under Republican presidents, leading to a pattern where Democrats are elected to fix it. This cycle shows that economies tend to recover when Democrats take over.
  2. Trump's incoming policies might worsen inflation and not help the economy, despite some indicators suggesting the economy is strong. This could lead to significant economic disappointment.
  3. The national debt is becoming a serious concern again as interest rates rise. This makes paying off that debt much more expensive than before, impacting the government's finances.

The $140K Question: Cost Changes Over Time

Don't Worry About the Vase • 1612 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. Real incomes and aggregate wealth have gone up, but many people still feel worse off because the costs and required standards of modern middle-class life (housing, health, education, childcare) have risen faster or in more painful ways than the headline numbers show.
  2. Housing is the central problem: legal and regulatory limits on building in the places with opportunity, plus higher interest rates, have made homes scarce and expensive and squeezed people’s ability to live where they want or raise a family.
  3. Official statistics miss key burdens — mandatory insurance tied to jobs, subsidies and hoops that distort choices, credential inflation, time costs, and administrative bloat — so even if some service prices have leveled, the real, lived cost and uncertainty remain high.

How (And When) Gold Could Reach $10,000

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 35 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. When a dominant power’s currency loses credibility, foreign partners can stop using it and demand hard assets like gold, which can fuel domestic inflation.
  2. If foreign governments and central banks start shifting even a small slice of their dollar holdings into gold, that reallocation can push gold prices sharply higher.
  3. Analysts estimate that buying roughly 10,000 metric tons (about 10% of foreigners' dollar assets) could drive gold toward $10,000, but that would require unprecedented purchases and a major geopolitical loss of confidence.

Are oil price spikes good for the U.S.?

Economic Forces • 10 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
đź’Ľ Business Inflation
  1. The US is now a net exporter of oil and gas because of shale, so big oil price spikes produce a modest net gain for the country instead of a large national loss. That gain is small relative to GDP — on the order of tens of billions a year.
  2. To first order the national effect is just net traded barrels times the price change (a simple rectangle), while quantity responses (elasticities) are a smaller triangle that trims importer losses but enlarges exporter gains.
  3. Gains are uneven: energy producers and owners capture most of the upside while workers and consumers face real-wage losses, and higher energy prices act as both a cost-push shock and a demand shift at home, raising inflation and complicating monetary policy.

January 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 147 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation that excludes rent has tracked very close to a 2% trend for about 3½ years.
  2. Rents should be treated separately from other inflation measures because they can distort signals used for monetary policy.
  3. Home price movements are driven by cyclical factors, credit conditions, and supply constraints, and understanding those components is key to interpreting housing trends.

Foundations of Investing: Inflation

Behavioral Value Investor • 141 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. Money can and very likely will lose some of its purchasing power over time. If you just hold cash, it will buy fewer goods and services in the future.
  2. Government actions like printing money or debasing currency have repeatedly driven inflation, and history shows this can sometimes be extreme enough to wipe out savings. Even stable countries can experience long periods of above-target inflation.
  3. Because of inflation, savers should use ways of saving or investing that at least keep up with inflation instead of leaving money idle under a mattress. Investing can help preserve and grow the real value of your savings over the long run.

Unpopular Quick Take

Points And Figures • 453 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. The ten‑year Treasury yield is high largely because demand for debt is strong as the economy expands, not because of runaway inflation.
  2. Corporate capex is rising due to tax incentives like full expensing and big AI investments, which is pushing firms to borrow more and support higher long‑term rates.
  3. Traditional inflation signals and manufacturing are cooling — CPI and commodity prices are down and ISM is in contraction — so growth appears driven by investment and productivity gains rather than broad consumer inflation or big hiring waves.

The Price-Fixing Economy

BIG by Matt Stoller • 48129 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
đź’Ľ Business Inflation
  1. Inflation could possibly be driven by consolidation and data sharing in industries like Amazon and meat price-fixing cases.
  2. Price-fixing can involve colluding to raise prices or lower wages, not just about increasing prices for consumers.
  3. People not only dislike high prices but also feel cheated by unfair pricing practices, like hidden fees and tips, impacting their perception of the economy.

The Fed Eases

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. The Fed cut rates by 0.25% and said it will expand its balance sheet by buying short-term Treasurys to keep ample bank reserves.
  2. Policymakers now expect inflation to fall (about 3% end-2025 and 2.5% in 2026) and slightly raised GDP forecasts while unemployment stays near current levels.
  3. The balance-sheet move is meant to ease interbank liquidity strains and should push short-term yields lower, which has already helped lift futures and the stock market.

ORANGE MAN, BAD MACRO: Trump’s War on Powell & Economic-Policy Reality

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 315 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. The president is trying to criminalize Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell for doing his job and resisting political pressure, which threatens Fed independence and the rule of law.
  2. Powell’s monetary policy largely succeeded: it sustained growth before COVID, supported spending during the pandemic to avoid a deep depression, and powered a rapid post-vaccine recovery toward full employment, although that recovery contributed to a higher price level partly driven by external shocks.
  3. The administration’s immigration enforcement and broader tactics are becoming brutal and politicized, and some officials who enable or tolerate these actions should have resigned instead of staying on.

Strikes and Bidenomics

BIG by Matt Stoller • 35524 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Public dissatisfaction with the economy despite positive statistics like low unemployment and consumer spending
  2. The Biden administration lacks coherence in its policy approach and struggles to address issues like inflation and housing costs
  3. Judicial appointments and internal disagreements within the administration contribute to the challenges faced by Bidenomics in governing effectively

Top Links 959 Dodgy numbers. Black unemployment. Varoufakis fake. Embracing decline.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. America’s official inflation numbers look dodgy and probably understate actual price pressures, so they need closer scrutiny.
  2. High Black unemployment is highlighted as a major ongoing economic and social problem that demands attention.
  3. There are claims that figures like Varoufakis are inauthentic, and a broader theme warns that some people or institutions are calmly embracing economic decline rather than resisting it.

Quick Essay: The Federal Reserve and Critical Moments in U.S. Monetary Policy

Chamath Palihapitiya • 3871 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. Before the Federal Reserve, the U.S. had banking issues and crises, leading to the need for a central bank in 1913.
  2. The Great Depression prompted key reforms like the Banking Act of 1933 and the Gold Reserve Act of 1934.
  3. The end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked a shift to Fiat currency and the decline of the gold standard.

Onward and Upward Past 5,000 As Communist China Swoons and AI Destroys More Jobs

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 1768 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. The stock market has shown a technical rally with S&P 500 surpassing 5000, driven by trend traders focusing more on technical aspects than fundamentals.
  2. Artificial intelligence is significantly impacting the job market, with companies using AI for tasks like layoff decisions, with some notable companies like United Parcel Service and BlackRock making significant staff reductions.
  3. China's economy is being compared to past scenarios like Japan's real estate market crash, highlighting concerns about potential global repercussions.

Top Links 922 Unhappy American consumers. (Unexpected) inflation tax. Accelerating singlehood & how the Abraham Accords have come to Central Asia.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 15 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Many Americans are unhappy with the economy. They feel the effects of high grocery prices and a tough job market.
  2. People are worried about inflation, which feels like a tax on their everyday lives. This makes it harder for them to manage their finances.
  3. There's a trend of more people choosing to be single. This shift in social habits is interesting and shows changing priorities.

Still Not Out Of The Woods

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. Wholesale inflation accelerated in January — core PPI jumped 0.8% for the month and is running around 3.6% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% goal.
  2. The hotter PPI contrasts with a softer CPI, and that tension matters because rising producer prices can filter through to consumer prices over time.
  3. It’s premature to declare victory over inflation — the PPI data suggest inflation risks remain and policymakers should stay cautious.

Is There an Affordability Crisis?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 292 implied HN points • 11 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Inflation has fallen since its post‑COVID peak, but that improvement hasn’t removed economic uncertainty — wage gains for lower‑paid workers have faded and job growth feels weak.
  2. Housing is a central pain point: a past run‑up in prices from very low mortgage rates plus today’s higher rates has left prices high, blocking new buyers and preventing many homeowners from moving.
  3. The economy is mixed — tech and markets are strong and unemployment is low, yet many middle‑class families feel squeezed, and policymakers are divided on how to respond.

Will AI Cause Massive Deflation?

cryptoeconomy • 1493 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. There will not be durable deflation in the future unless major changes happen to the dollar or the Federal Reserve.
  2. Technology like AI can lead to deflation by lowering prices, but central banks like the Federal Reserve counteract this by absorbing the deflation.
  3. A special type of bad deflation occurs when dollars are taken out of circulation, often due to events like financial panics, leading to economic challenges.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin on What's Actually Happening in the Economy

Kyla’s Newsletter • 121 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Inflation
  1. The Fed is learning from the 1970s vs 1990s: inflation expectations and productivity trends matter. AI could boost productivity but that’s uncertain, so policy needs to be cautious and nimble.
  2. Persistent uncertainty and a gap between sentiment and official data are major issues. Negative news cycles make people feel worse even when jobs, wages, and spending remain fairly strong.
  3. The economy has been surprisingly resilient but growth is narrow, driven by AI investment and healthcare jobs, which creates concentration risks linked to the stock market and hiring. Ground-level signals like cranes and parking lots are useful to check what businesses are actually doing.