The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Noahpinion β€’ 9647 implied HN points β€’ 03 Mar 24
  1. Paul Krugman suggests that increased immigration led to a positive supply shock, boosting growth and lowering inflation.
  2. Immigration's impact on reducing costs for companies and expanding aggregate supply is complex, involving immigrant and native-born wage dynamics.
  3. There are differing perspectives on the role of immigration in reducing inflation, with suggestions including a combination of immigration, Fed action, and pandemic-era supply shocks.
BIG by Matt Stoller β€’ 48129 implied HN points β€’ 06 Oct 23
  1. Inflation could possibly be driven by consolidation and data sharing in industries like Amazon and meat price-fixing cases.
  2. Price-fixing can involve colluding to raise prices or lower wages, not just about increasing prices for consumers.
  3. People not only dislike high prices but also feel cheated by unfair pricing practices, like hidden fees and tips, impacting their perception of the economy.
Noahpinion β€’ 8647 implied HN points β€’ 03 Feb 24
  1. The U.S. economy is showing strong signs of a soft landing with low unemployment, surging job numbers, high employment rates, and accelerating wages.
  2. Inflation has fallen back to the 2% target, providing a remarkable macroeconomic achievement.
  3. Despite the strong economy, there is speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon due to reasons like accelerating productivity growth.
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BIG by Matt Stoller β€’ 35524 implied HN points β€’ 16 Sep 23
  1. Public dissatisfaction with the economy despite positive statistics like low unemployment and consumer spending
  2. The Biden administration lacks coherence in its policy approach and struggles to address issues like inflation and housing costs
  3. Judicial appointments and internal disagreements within the administration contribute to the challenges faced by Bidenomics in governing effectively
Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America β€’ 1768 implied HN points β€’ 09 Feb 24
  1. The stock market has shown a technical rally with S&P 500 surpassing 5000, driven by trend traders focusing more on technical aspects than fundamentals.
  2. Artificial intelligence is significantly impacting the job market, with companies using AI for tasks like layoff decisions, with some notable companies like United Parcel Service and BlackRock making significant staff reductions.
  3. China's economy is being compared to past scenarios like Japan's real estate market crash, highlighting concerns about potential global repercussions.
cryptoeconomy β€’ 1493 implied HN points β€’ 02 Feb 24
  1. There will not be durable deflation in the future unless major changes happen to the dollar or the Federal Reserve.
  2. Technology like AI can lead to deflation by lowering prices, but central banks like the Federal Reserve counteract this by absorbing the deflation.
  3. A special type of bad deflation occurs when dollars are taken out of circulation, often due to events like financial panics, leading to economic challenges.
Chamath Palihapitiya β€’ 3871 implied HN points β€’ 15 Nov 23
  1. Before the Federal Reserve, the U.S. had banking issues and crises, leading to the need for a central bank in 1913.
  2. The Great Depression prompted key reforms like the Banking Act of 1933 and the Gold Reserve Act of 1934.
  3. The end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked a shift to Fiat currency and the decline of the gold standard.
Aether Pirates of the Matterium! β€’ 17276 implied HN points β€’ 20 Mar 23
  1. Inflation is a measurement, not a tangible thing tied to politicians and bankers.
  2. Hyperinflation is driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt, leading to people losing confidence in the currency.
  3. Loss of confidence in political and financial systems can trigger hyperinflation, impacting global power structures.
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) β€’ 1238 implied HN points β€’ 24 Jan 24
  1. The Fed's main concern is avoiding an unnecessary recession, not reversing a rate cut.
  2. Inflation has decreased, but the Fed is hesitant to cut rates due to fears of inflation resurgence.
  3. The Fed should balance its mandate of stable prices and maximum employment to avoid causing an unnecessary recession.
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) β€’ 805 implied HN points β€’ 09 Feb 24
  1. The Fed is focusing only on past inflation, and this approach may lead to problems with monetary policy decisions.
  2. Recent data shows a rapid decrease in inflation over the past six months, suggesting a return towards the 2% target.
  3. Despite strong economic growth and high interest rates, the Fed continues to rely heavily on backward-looking inflation data for its decision-making.
Points And Figures β€’ 666 implied HN points β€’ 13 Feb 24
  1. Inflation might be higher than reported due to isolated evidence like price increases in certain sectors.
  2. The government's policies are putting strong inflationary pressure on the economy, impacting various sectors and housing market.
  3. Business news sources may have biases and push narratives, so it's important to seek objective insights for informed decisions.
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) β€’ 1356 implied HN points β€’ 11 Jan 24
  1. The labor market is strong, American consumers are spending well, and most families are financially better off.
  2. Inflation is heading towards 2%, with businesses adjusting prices and the Fed needing to act accordingly.
  3. Forecasts suggest a recession may be avoided, softening the pessimistic rhetoric and improving consumer sentiment.
The Lens β€’ 904 implied HN points β€’ 27 Jan 24
  1. Economists, market participants, pundits, and policymakers got some big things wrong in recent years, like the transitory nature of inflation.
  2. The public perception of elites may be that they often know nothing, even elites admit to being wrong on significant matters.
  3. There was a discussion on the impact of rate hikes on inflation, challenging the traditional narrative and the idea that monetary policy has no effect.
Drezner’s World β€’ 963 implied HN points β€’ 10 Jan 24
  1. The author has issues with both Biden and Trump, but views Trump's economic policies as far worse.
  2. The author emphasizes the difference between the economic policies of Biden and Trump, particularly in relation to inflation.
  3. The author highlights the authoritarian tendencies and disastrous economic policies of Donald Trump, leading to a preference for Biden in the 2024 election.
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality β€’ 153 implied HN points β€’ 08 Mar 24
  1. Many were surprised by the current interest-rate situation in the US, with rates significantly higher than expected.
  2. Market changes in 2022 led to a drastic increase in long-term real safe interest rates, signaling shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
  3. The current interest-rate configuration, considerably higher than anticipated, raised concerns about a looming recession among experts.
The Bitcoin Layer β€’ 393 implied HN points β€’ 06 Feb 24
  1. Inflation is reigniting as prices paid by businesses surge, leading to a spike in Treasury yields.
  2. Loan activity is increasing at banks, indicating economic activity is picking up.
  3. Upstream prices that businesses are paying will likely lead to higher consumer prices with a slight delay.
The Overshoot β€’ 452 implied HN points β€’ 27 Jan 24
  1. The U.S. Economy is showing strong growth and may not need rate cuts despite controlled inflation.
  2. Traders anticipate interest rates to decrease, but data suggests a period of faster growth akin to past economic booms.
  3. Initial forecasts of a U.S. recession were proven wrong, with the economy growing over 3% and showing resilience against negative predictions.
Off to Lunch β€’ 334 implied HN points β€’ 01 Feb 24
  1. The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates at 5.25%, despite a split vote among committee members.
  2. Inflation is still high in the UK at 4%, above the Bank's 2% target, but recent data suggests a slowdown in the economy.
  3. The Bank's monetary policy report hints at inflation potentially dropping to 2% in the near future, but interest rates may not be cut until sustained evidence is seen.
System Change β€’ 491 implied HN points β€’ 10 Jan 24
  1. The art market is experiencing deflation as buyers prioritize debt repayment over new purchases.
  2. Debt deflation and low wages worldwide are driving the fall in prices of goods, services, and assets.
  3. China's economy, as the world's second largest, plays a significant role in global deflationary pressures and may require a drastic shift in economic policy to avoid a crash.
Off to Lunch β€’ 255 implied HN points β€’ 08 Feb 24
  1. Recent data shows deflation in the Chinese economy, affecting consumer prices and factory goods.
  2. Deflation poses challenges for businesses, as consumers may delay spending anticipating lower prices.
  3. Bank of England aims to maintain 2% inflation, highlighting the negative impacts of deflation on business profits and debt.
COVID Reason β€’ 1768 implied HN points β€’ 28 Aug 23
  1. Over $10 trillion was spent on the COVID-19 pandemic, with $6 trillion from CARES Act and $4 trillion from Biden's administration.
  2. Money was stolen through fraud and embezzlement during COVID relief, with the effects leading to inflation and societal wealth disparity.
  3. The spending spree due to the pandemic led to significant financial losses, missed opportunities, and wealth redistribution, impacting many aspects of people's lives.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 42 implied HN points β€’ 19 Mar 24
  1. Consider using NGDP growth to communicate monetary policy instead of targeting inflation with short term interest rates.
  2. The yield curve's dynamics indicate recessionary signals and potential rate cuts by the Fed.
  3. Economic growth predictions for 2024 suggest low inflation, steady GDP growth, and a possible decrease in target rates by the Fed.
Anxiety Addiction & Ascension β€’ 158 implied HN points β€’ 08 Feb 24
  1. The middle class is facing challenges like wage stagnation and inflation, impacting their standard of living.
  2. Everyday costs like groceries are significantly increasing, impacting individuals' budgets.
  3. Luxury experiences such as stays at high-end hotels are becoming more expensive and less accessible, signaling a broader trend of economic strain on the middle class.
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality β€’ 161 implied HN points β€’ 06 Feb 24
  1. The US Federal Reserve is hesitant to adjust its policy interest rate despite the economy being in balance.
  2. The Fed remains cautious about aligning rates with the neutral rate due to uncertainties in the economic outlook and inflation risks.
  3. The announcement of maintaining the federal funds rate range at 5.25-5.5% raised concerns given the already balanced US macroeconomy.