The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics
Points And Figures β€’ 772 implied HN points β€’ 04 Mar 25
  1. GDP is an important measure of how well an economy is doing. When GDP goes up, it usually means people are earning more and living better.
  2. Different economists have different views on government spending. Classical economists often see it as a negative thing for the economy, while Keynesians believe it can be beneficial.
  3. Current economic uncertainty affects business investment decisions, making it tough for the economy to grow. However, there are signs of recovery, like increased merger activity.
Noahpinion β€’ 22765 implied HN points β€’ 14 Feb 25
  1. The economy often struggles under Republican presidents, leading to a pattern where Democrats are elected to fix it. This cycle shows that economies tend to recover when Democrats take over.
  2. Trump's incoming policies might worsen inflation and not help the economy, despite some indicators suggesting the economy is strong. This could lead to significant economic disappointment.
  3. The national debt is becoming a serious concern again as interest rates rise. This makes paying off that debt much more expensive than before, impacting the government's finances.
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality β€’ 123 implied HN points β€’ 22 Feb 25
  1. The Federal Reserve's approach in the 2020s, which involved acting quickly, turned out to be effective. Many people are thankful for the leadership during this time.
  2. Inflation in the early 2020s might not have been bad because it helped avoid a deeper recession and led to a better economy in some ways.
  3. Voters who understood the economy generally supported Democrats, while those who were confused tended to back Republicans. This shows how informed opinions can influence political choices.
The Pomp Letter β€’ 559 implied HN points β€’ 17 Oct 24
  1. The US dollar's purchasing power has decreased by 50% over the last 30 years due to inflation. This means you can buy much less with a dollar today compared to what you could in the past.
  2. Despite wage increases, the average worker is effectively earning less after adjusting for inflation. This creates a situation where even though you might see more money in your paycheck, it doesn't go as far as it used to.
  3. Many people are looking for alternative ways to store value, like Bitcoin, as traditional currencies lose purchasing power and some goods continue to rise in price.
The Transcript β€’ 59 implied HN points β€’ 28 Oct 24
  1. The US economy is doing well with steady consumer spending and healthy household finances. People are still buying, even if the growth rate is slower than last year.
  2. There is a strong demand for jobs, especially for those with college degrees. Many companies are looking to hire, but the unemployment rate for skilled positions is still very low.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is creating some uncertainty in the markets. Once it's over, people expect a better outlook for economic policies.
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COVID Reason β€’ 376 implied HN points β€’ 14 Oct 24
  1. Disinflation means prices are rising more slowly, but that doesn't always mean good news. If people aren't spending because they can't afford things, it can signal trouble in the economy.
  2. The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in response to disinflation to try and encourage spending, but this might just be a way to show they are doing something without fixing the deeper issues.
  3. Sticky prices and disinflation can show that people are struggling financially. For a healthy economy, we need wages to rise so people can spend more, rather than just seeing temporary price drops.
Chartbook β€’ 414 implied HN points β€’ 30 Jan 25
  1. Amerikanizm can have impacts on tariffs and inflation. This means policies can affect prices and trade in significant ways.
  2. The UK's productivity is not improving much, which suggests challenges in its economy. This stagnation can lead to slower growth and less innovation.
  3. There are increasing risks related to war for businesses. Companies might face uncertainties that could influence their operations and profits.
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality β€’ 192 implied HN points β€’ 10 Feb 25
  1. There are two main views on inflation: 'Team Transitory' believes inflation will go away, while 'Team Persistent' thinks it will stick around. The debate is important to understand how to deal with the economy's ups and downs.
  2. The Federal Reserve's actions, like raising interest rates quickly, play a big role in managing inflation. If the Fed hadn't acted as strongly, inflation expectations could have gone out of control.
  3. Past economic cycles were shaped by different factors, like wars and technological changes. Understanding these historical trends can help us navigate today's economy better.
Chartbook β€’ 815 implied HN points β€’ 17 Jan 25
  1. When a political party loses, there’s a temptation to rethink past policies. Critics may blame inflation on spending decisions, but the Democrats didn't do as poorly as expected in recent elections.
  2. Inflation feels different depending on your political views. Partisanship affects how people perceive the economy, making it hard to pin down economic sentiment just to inflation rates.
  3. Despite losing to Trump, the Democratic fiscal policies in recent years were effective. Inflation rates have fallen and job numbers have remained strong, suggesting that bold policy decisions can be successful.
Sumit's Investment Takes β€’ 99 implied HN points β€’ 22 Oct 24
  1. There isn't just one number that shows how good or bad the economy is. You can look at things like unemployment, inflation, and GDP, but they all tell different stories.
  2. The president's actions don’t usually have an immediate effect on the economy. Many factors that affect the economy are outside their control, like market trends and global events.
  3. To really understand a president's impact on the economy, you should look at long-term policies instead of short-term data. Also, things like immigration and international relations can play a big role.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss β€’ 579 implied HN points β€’ 21 Jan 25
  1. Tariffs raise prices for consumers, going against the goal of reducing inflation. It's a way for bureaucrats and lobbyists to benefit at the expense of everyday people.
  2. The system of tariffs is controlled by complex bureaucracies that aren't transparent. This means that the true impact and manipulation of tariffs can be hidden from public view.
  3. If someone wants to reduce the power of the government and its administration, getting rid of tariffs would be a good starting point.
DeFi Education β€’ 779 implied HN points β€’ 23 Aug 24
  1. The Federal Reserve is making changes to its policies, indicating the economy is shifting. This could affect things like interest rates and inflation.
  2. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that they don’t want the economy to cool down too much. This suggests they are looking for a balance between growth and stability.
  3. There is a focus on the labor market and inflation, which are key indicators for the economy. These factors will influence future decisions from the Federal Reserve.
BIG by Matt Stoller β€’ 48129 implied HN points β€’ 06 Oct 23
  1. Inflation could possibly be driven by consolidation and data sharing in industries like Amazon and meat price-fixing cases.
  2. Price-fixing can involve colluding to raise prices or lower wages, not just about increasing prices for consumers.
  3. People not only dislike high prices but also feel cheated by unfair pricing practices, like hidden fees and tips, impacting their perception of the economy.
Chartbook β€’ 429 implied HN points β€’ 08 Jan 25
  1. Global inflation has seen significant changes, impacting economies worldwide.
  2. Political events, like coups and revolutions, can lead to serious economic fallout.
  3. Understanding these events helps us see how connected the world's economies really are.
BIG by Matt Stoller β€’ 35524 implied HN points β€’ 16 Sep 23
  1. Public dissatisfaction with the economy despite positive statistics like low unemployment and consumer spending
  2. The Biden administration lacks coherence in its policy approach and struggles to address issues like inflation and housing costs
  3. Judicial appointments and internal disagreements within the administration contribute to the challenges faced by Bidenomics in governing effectively
Aether Pirates of the Matterium! β€’ 17276 implied HN points β€’ 20 Mar 23
  1. Inflation is a measurement, not a tangible thing tied to politicians and bankers.
  2. Hyperinflation is driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt, leading to people losing confidence in the currency.
  3. Loss of confidence in political and financial systems can trigger hyperinflation, impacting global power structures.
Noahpinion β€’ 9647 implied HN points β€’ 03 Mar 24
  1. Paul Krugman suggests that increased immigration led to a positive supply shock, boosting growth and lowering inflation.
  2. Immigration's impact on reducing costs for companies and expanding aggregate supply is complex, involving immigrant and native-born wage dynamics.
  3. There are differing perspectives on the role of immigration in reducing inflation, with suggestions including a combination of immigration, Fed action, and pandemic-era supply shocks.
QTR’s Fringe Finance β€’ 23 implied HN points β€’ 17 Feb 25
  1. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates, claiming confidence in lower inflation, but that confidence seems to have faded. The Fed is now uncertain about its inflation goals.
  2. Inflation remains high, especially for everyday necessities like food and housing, causing consumers to struggle with rising costs. Recent data shows that inflation is not improving as expected.
  3. Instead of lowering interest rates, which may not help ordinary people, the Fed should step back and allow the market to adjust naturally. This could help stabilize the economy and provide better opportunities for regular investors.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 21 implied HN points β€’ 18 Feb 25
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.
Noahpinion β€’ 8647 implied HN points β€’ 03 Feb 24
  1. The U.S. economy is showing strong signs of a soft landing with low unemployment, surging job numbers, high employment rates, and accelerating wages.
  2. Inflation has fallen back to the 2% target, providing a remarkable macroeconomic achievement.
  3. Despite the strong economy, there is speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon due to reasons like accelerating productivity growth.
Economic Forces β€’ 3 implied HN points β€’ 27 Feb 25
  1. Sending out DOGE checks is unlikely to cause inflation. It's because they would probably just raise the price level temporarily, not create ongoing inflation.
  2. The impact of these checks on the economy depends on how spending changes and whether the central bank keeps spending stable.
  3. Whether giving out DOGE checks is a good idea depends on how the saved money could be used instead, like paying off government debt or funding other programs.
Chartbook β€’ 271 implied HN points β€’ 19 Dec 24
  1. Inflation can have positive effects on the economy. It's important to understand how it can sometimes benefit different sectors.
  2. The Warhammer gaming franchise is linked to the British economy in interesting ways. It shows how cultural phenomena can impact financial trends.
  3. There has been a rise in the rate of Cesarean births, often referred to as a boom. This trend raises questions about healthcare practices and preferences.
Chartbook β€’ 486 implied HN points β€’ 22 Nov 24
  1. Stock markets might struggle to reach new highs during Trump's second term compared to his first term.
  2. Emerging markets have become more prominent in the global economy, showing their growth potential.
  3. Food inflation in India and oversupply in the wine market are significant trends affecting consumers today.
Spilled Coffee β€’ 60 implied HN points β€’ 05 Feb 25
  1. Tariffs can cause prices to rise for consumers, leading to inflation. This means things might get more expensive for everyone.
  2. The ongoing tariffs can create uncertainty in the stock market and economy. Businesses are worried about how these changes could impact their profits.
  3. Monitoring tariffs is important for investors and business owners. They need to stay updated because tariffs affect many products and can cause market fluctuations.
UnfairNation by Ehsan Zaffar β€’ 3 implied HN points β€’ 18 Feb 25
  1. Prices for many goods are expected to rise significantly in the next six months. This includes cars, energy, housing, and food.
  2. Tariffs are increasing costs for consumers, adding $250 to $420 more to monthly expenses, which is hard for many people to afford.
  3. Although tariffs promise to fund government services, cuts to staff and agencies may prevent taxpayers from seeing any real benefits.
Points And Figures β€’ 746 implied HN points β€’ 28 Oct 24
  1. Inflation seems unavoidable and is likely to continue affecting the economy. It doesn't really matter who is in charge politically; the pressure on the markets suggests we're stuck with it.
  2. To manage during inflationary times, investing in commodities and hard assets like real estate may be smart. These investments can help preserve value even when the dollar weakens.
  3. The shift to private markets and sectors like technology and agriculture can offer chances to earn better returns that beat inflation. However, navigating these markets requires skill and good management.
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality β€’ 84 implied HN points β€’ 16 Jan 25
  1. The global economy is facing a 'polycrisis,' which means there are many problems at once, like inflation, energy issues, and conflicts affecting different regions.
  2. Inflation is a big concern, and controlling it might require tough decisions like raising interest rates, which could lead to higher unemployment but is seen as necessary for stability.
  3. The situation in the UK shows how quickly financial stability can turn into chaos from bad policy, highlighting the importance of credibility and wise fiscal management.
Chamath Palihapitiya β€’ 3871 implied HN points β€’ 15 Nov 23
  1. Before the Federal Reserve, the U.S. had banking issues and crises, leading to the need for a central bank in 1913.
  2. The Great Depression prompted key reforms like the Banking Act of 1933 and the Gold Reserve Act of 1934.
  3. The end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked a shift to Fiat currency and the decline of the gold standard.
Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America β€’ 1768 implied HN points β€’ 09 Feb 24
  1. The stock market has shown a technical rally with S&P 500 surpassing 5000, driven by trend traders focusing more on technical aspects than fundamentals.
  2. Artificial intelligence is significantly impacting the job market, with companies using AI for tasks like layoff decisions, with some notable companies like United Parcel Service and BlackRock making significant staff reductions.
  3. China's economy is being compared to past scenarios like Japan's real estate market crash, highlighting concerns about potential global repercussions.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 38 implied HN points β€’ 29 Jan 25
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.1% lower than their peak in 2022. This shows that even when prices rise, the increase may not match inflation.
  2. The price-to-rent index is also lower than its 2022 peak by 7.8%. This means it might be cheaper to rent compared to buying right now.
  3. National house prices are historically high, being 11.6% above the previous housing bubble peak. However, price growth may slow down in the near future.
cryptoeconomy β€’ 1493 implied HN points β€’ 02 Feb 24
  1. There will not be durable deflation in the future unless major changes happen to the dollar or the Federal Reserve.
  2. Technology like AI can lead to deflation by lowering prices, but central banks like the Federal Reserve counteract this by absorbing the deflation.
  3. A special type of bad deflation occurs when dollars are taken out of circulation, often due to events like financial panics, leading to economic challenges.
Spilled Coffee β€’ 72 implied HN points β€’ 15 Jan 25
  1. Currently, housing is facing serious issues with high mortgage rates, making it a tough market for buyers. The demand for mortgages has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade.
  2. Home construction is slowing down, with builder inventories at a high level not seen since the 2008 housing bubble. This can have a big impact on the job market in construction.
  3. Worries are also rising in the stock market and labor market, indicating that many important sectors are feeling pressure right now.
Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America β€’ 2299 implied HN points β€’ 14 Mar 23
  1. Rich hedge fund managers and venture capitalists are profiting while the Deplorables in MAGA Land suffer economically.
  2. Biden's regime is bailing out the US banking sector, burdening the Deplorables with trillions in debt and fueling inflation.
  3. Biden's policies, such as canceling pipelines and excessive government spending, are contributing to cost-push and demand-pull inflation, creating stagflationary forces.
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) β€’ 1356 implied HN points β€’ 11 Jan 24
  1. The labor market is strong, American consumers are spending well, and most families are financially better off.
  2. Inflation is heading towards 2%, with businesses adjusting prices and the Fed needing to act accordingly.
  3. Forecasts suggest a recession may be avoided, softening the pessimistic rhetoric and improving consumer sentiment.