The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Did immigration bring down inflation?

Noahpinion • 9647 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Economy Policy Labor Market Inflation
  1. Paul Krugman suggests that increased immigration led to a positive supply shock, boosting growth and lowering inflation.
  2. Immigration's impact on reducing costs for companies and expanding aggregate supply is complex, involving immigrant and native-born wage dynamics.
  3. There are differing perspectives on the role of immigration in reducing inflation, with suggestions including a combination of immigration, Fed action, and pandemic-era supply shocks.

The Price-Fixing Economy

BIG by Matt Stoller • 48129 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💼 Business Monopoly power Inflation Fairness
  1. Inflation could possibly be driven by consolidation and data sharing in industries like Amazon and meat price-fixing cases.
  2. Price-fixing can involve colluding to raise prices or lower wages, not just about increasing prices for consumers.
  3. People not only dislike high prices but also feel cheated by unfair pricing practices, like hidden fees and tips, impacting their perception of the economy.

Three reasons the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates soon

Noahpinion • 8647 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates Inflation Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. economy is showing strong signs of a soft landing with low unemployment, surging job numbers, high employment rates, and accelerating wages.
  2. Inflation has fallen back to the 2% target, providing a remarkable macroeconomic achievement.
  3. Despite the strong economy, there is speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon due to reasons like accelerating productivity growth.
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Strikes and Bidenomics

BIG by Matt Stoller • 35524 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Policy Government Labor Inflation
  1. Public dissatisfaction with the economy despite positive statistics like low unemployment and consumer spending
  2. The Biden administration lacks coherence in its policy approach and struggles to address issues like inflation and housing costs
  3. Judicial appointments and internal disagreements within the administration contribute to the challenges faced by Bidenomics in governing effectively

Onward and Upward Past 5,000 As Communist China Swoons and AI Destroys More Jobs

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 1768 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Geopolitics Inflation Investing Artificial Intelligence
  1. The stock market has shown a technical rally with S&P 500 surpassing 5000, driven by trend traders focusing more on technical aspects than fundamentals.
  2. Artificial intelligence is significantly impacting the job market, with companies using AI for tasks like layoff decisions, with some notable companies like United Parcel Service and BlackRock making significant staff reductions.
  3. China's economy is being compared to past scenarios like Japan's real estate market crash, highlighting concerns about potential global repercussions.

The Potemkin Economy

The Dollar Endgame • 6 HN points • 23 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Employment Manipulation Unemployment Inflation
  1. Economic data may not reflect the true situation: Reports of a strong economy may be misleading, with statistics like job numbers potentially manipulated to present a facade of growth.
  2. There are concerns about the accuracy of government statistics: Issues like overestimating job growth and manipulating unemployment rates raise questions about the reliability of official data.
  3. The changing nature of employment is worrisome: The shift towards part-time work, decline in full-time jobs, and decreasing workforce participation rates indicate underlying problems in the job market.

Will AI Cause Massive Deflation?

cryptoeconomy • 1493 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics Technology Central Banking Inflation
  1. There will not be durable deflation in the future unless major changes happen to the dollar or the Federal Reserve.
  2. Technology like AI can lead to deflation by lowering prices, but central banks like the Federal Reserve counteract this by absorbing the deflation.
  3. A special type of bad deflation occurs when dollars are taken out of circulation, often due to events like financial panics, leading to economic challenges.

Quick Essay: The Federal Reserve and Critical Moments in U.S. Monetary Policy

Chamath Palihapitiya • 3871 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Economic History Inflation Financial Crisis
  1. Before the Federal Reserve, the U.S. had banking issues and crises, leading to the need for a central bank in 1913.
  2. The Great Depression prompted key reforms like the Banking Act of 1933 and the Gold Reserve Act of 1934.
  3. The end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked a shift to Fiat currency and the decline of the gold standard.

The BoJ is Trapped

The Dollar Endgame • 279 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Bank Inflation Interest Rates
  1. The Bank of Japan raised its rates for the first time in years, adjusting its primary goal for short-term interest rates and marking its first rate hike since 2007.
  2. The Bank of Japan previously used Negative Interest Rate Policy to stimulate borrowing and lending to revitalize Japan's sluggish economy.
  3. The Bank of Japan has ceased certain policies but will continue to print money, maintain low rates, and combat potential inflation, as seen through their recent monetary announcements.

The "worst possible outcome" for the Fed is an unnecessary recession, not reversing a cut

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 1238 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Unemployment Economy
  1. The Fed's main concern is avoiding an unnecessary recession, not reversing a rate cut.
  2. Inflation has decreased, but the Fed is hesitant to cut rates due to fears of inflation resurgence.
  3. The Fed should balance its mandate of stable prices and maximum employment to avoid causing an unnecessary recession.

QE is Coming

The Dollar Endgame • 399 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Markets Bitcoin Gold Inflation Central Bank
  1. Markets are anticipating increased liquidity injections from the Fed, with assets like Gold and Bitcoin hitting all-time highs even before the easing cycle starts.
  2. The surge in Bitcoin's value is attributed to significant inflows from U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a historic rally compared to gold ETFs.
  3. The financial markets are preparing for a potential Fed intervention, likely in response to the rising net liquidity despite the seeming balance sheet reductions.

The Fed is only looking to past inflation, and that's a problem.

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 805 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Economy Federal Reserve Data-driven
  1. The Fed is focusing only on past inflation, and this approach may lead to problems with monetary policy decisions.
  2. Recent data shows a rapid decrease in inflation over the past six months, suggesting a return towards the 2% target.
  3. Despite strong economic growth and high interest rates, the Fed continues to rely heavily on backward-looking inflation data for its decision-making.

Lights on the runway for the soft landing

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 1356 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Labor Market Consumer spending Interest Rates
  1. The labor market is strong, American consumers are spending well, and most families are financially better off.
  2. Inflation is heading towards 2%, with businesses adjusting prices and the Fed needing to act accordingly.
  3. Forecasts suggest a recession may be avoided, softening the pessimistic rhetoric and improving consumer sentiment.

CPI 3.1%

Points And Figures • 666 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets Inflation Investing Policy Economics
  1. Inflation might be higher than reported due to isolated evidence like price increases in certain sectors.
  2. The government's policies are putting strong inflationary pressure on the economy, impacting various sectors and housing market.
  3. Business news sources may have biases and push narratives, so it's important to seek objective insights for informed decisions.

Sacred Cows

The Lens • 904 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Federal Reserve Inflation Monetary Policy Public Perception
  1. Economists, market participants, pundits, and policymakers got some big things wrong in recent years, like the transitory nature of inflation.
  2. The public perception of elites may be that they often know nothing, even elites admit to being wrong on significant matters.
  3. There was a discussion on the impact of rate hikes on inflation, challenging the traditional narrative and the idea that monetary policy has no effect.

Media Notes

The Lens • 982 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Debt
  1. Stephanie Kelton discusses alternative ways to handle inflationary pressures globally
  2. Central banks turning to rate hikes may not be the most effective solution for managing inflation
  3. Raising interest rates can have unintended consequences and may not always lead to desired outcomes

Just So We're Clear on the 2024 Election....

Drezner’s World • 963 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Trade policy Inflation Authoritarianism
  1. The author has issues with both Biden and Trump, but views Trump's economic policies as far worse.
  2. The author emphasizes the difference between the economic policies of Biden and Trump, particularly in relation to inflation.
  3. The author highlights the authoritarian tendencies and disastrous economic policies of Donald Trump, leading to a preference for Biden in the 2024 election.

Inflation suddenly reignites

The Bitcoin Layer • 393 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation is reigniting as prices paid by businesses surge, leading to a spike in Treasury yields.
  2. Loan activity is increasing at banks, indicating economic activity is picking up.
  3. Upstream prices that businesses are paying will likely lead to higher consumer prices with a slight delay.

The U.S. Economy is Roaring. Why Should Rates Come Down?

The Overshoot • 452 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates Growth Inflation Forecasting
  1. The U.S. Economy is showing strong growth and may not need rate cuts despite controlled inflation.
  2. Traders anticipate interest rates to decrease, but data suggests a period of faster growth akin to past economic booms.
  3. Initial forecasts of a U.S. recession were proven wrong, with the economy growing over 3% and showing resilience against negative predictions.

Nobody Expected Our Current Interest-Rate Configuration

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 153 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Monetary Policy Economic outlook Federal Reserve Inflation
  1. Many were surprised by the current interest-rate situation in the US, with rates significantly higher than expected.
  2. Market changes in 2022 led to a drastic increase in long-term real safe interest rates, signaling shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
  3. The current interest-rate configuration, considerably higher than anticipated, raised concerns about a looming recession among experts.

Bank of England holds rates, but...

Off to Lunch • 334 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Business News Economy Interest Rates
  1. The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates at 5.25%, despite a split vote among committee members.
  2. Inflation is still high in the UK at 4%, above the Bank's 2% target, but recent data suggests a slowdown in the economy.
  3. The Bank's monetary policy report hints at inflation potentially dropping to 2% in the near future, but interest rates may not be cut until sustained evidence is seen.

What's Art Got to Do with It?

System Change • 491 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation China Economic Policy
  1. The art market is experiencing deflation as buyers prioritize debt repayment over new purchases.
  2. Debt deflation and low wages worldwide are driving the fall in prices of goods, services, and assets.
  3. China's economy, as the world's second largest, plays a significant role in global deflationary pressures and may require a drastic shift in economic policy to avoid a crash.

After inflation, deflation?

Off to Lunch • 255 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💼 Business Economy Exports Inflation Global Trade
  1. Recent data shows deflation in the Chinese economy, affecting consumer prices and factory goods.
  2. Deflation poses challenges for businesses, as consumers may delay spending anticipating lower prices.
  3. Bank of England aims to maintain 2% inflation, highlighting the negative impacts of deflation on business profits and debt.

$10 Trillion Stolen Right Under Our Noses

COVID Reason • 1768 implied HN points • 28 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Public Policy Inflation Wealth Inequality Government spending
  1. Over $10 trillion was spent on the COVID-19 pandemic, with $6 trillion from CARES Act and $4 trillion from Biden's administration.
  2. Money was stolen through fraud and embezzlement during COVID relief, with the effects leading to inflation and societal wealth disparity.
  3. The spending spree due to the pandemic led to significant financial losses, missed opportunities, and wealth redistribution, impacting many aspects of people's lives.

2024 Predictions

The Dollar Endgame • 359 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Inflation Government spending Market Analysis
  1. The Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting rates by Q2 or Q3 and possibly implement quantitative easing, based on recent signals and market predictions.
  2. There is an anticipation that the Fed will eventually restart quantitative easing due to factors like high deficits and pressure from the Monetary Black Hole, impacting financial markets and assets.
  3. Inflation is expected to return in the near future as liquidity programs kick in, fiscal deficits grow, and government spending increases, potentially leading to economic challenges and a recession.