The hottest Existential Risk Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Updated thoughts on AI risk

Noahpinion • 24000 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
🕹 Technology Existential Risk
  1. LLMs that can "vibe-code" are changing the game by automating software development and removing humans from critical oversight roles, which erodes human skills and creates new systemic fragilities.
  2. A full physical "rise of the robots" takeover is conceptually possible but not imminent, because robotics and end-to-end automation still lag and give us some time to build defenses.
  3. The biggest near-term existential worry is AI-enabled bio risk and infrastructure fragility: automated virtual labs and AI-designed pathogens could enable catastrophic engineered pandemics, and AI-controlled agricultural or critical software failures could quickly collapse civilization.

My thoughts on AI safety

Noahpinion • 13353 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
🕹 Technology Existential Risk
  1. A superintelligent AI could conceivably pose an existential risk, but what it would want or do is largely unknowable.
  2. Trying to prevent every possible risk by banning or imprisoning researchers would likely stall important technological progress and is probably a bad way to live.
  3. Many other technologies and social changes also carry catastrophic risks, so we should favor cautious, practical risk reduction over total avoidance and pay attention to the realistic dangers we face now.

Little Echo

Don't Worry About the Vase • 7437 implied HN points • 08 Dec 25
🕹 Technology Existential Risk
  1. Even though the future with advanced AI looks grim and the odds feel against us, it's important to hold a defiant belief that we can still win. That belief fuels continued effort.
  2. You can fully love life and its everyday joys while still dedicating yourself to hard, urgent work to influence the outcome. Both living well and fighting for the future are worth doing at once.
  3. Persisting means doing the messy daily work: triaging, arguing, changing your mind, and moving pieces where you can, even when overwhelmed. Shared rituals and communities help sustain courage and focus.

“I’ll never sleep again”

12challenges • 428 implied HN points • 28 Nov 25
🕹 Technology Existential Risk
  1. There’s a difference between extinction risk and suffering risk: an AGI that causes endless suffering is considered far worse because it creates vast negative welfare and can multiply suffering indefinitely.
  2. The organization encourages researchers to craft intensely graphic, speculative scenarios to make S-risk feel more alarming than extinction and to attract attention and funding.
  3. Creating those scenarios can cause serious personal harm — desensitization, burnout, substance use, and deep self‑loathing show the ethical and psychological costs for the people doing this work.

The Extinction Tournament

Astral Codex Ten • 9153 implied HN points • 20 Jul 23
🔬 Science Existential Risk
  1. Experts and superforecasters had a strong disagreement on the likelihood of global catastrophes.
  2. The tournament explored global disaster risks, with 'Catastrophe' meaning an event killing over 10% of the population, and 'Extinction' meaning reducing human population below 5,000.
  3. The tournament highlighted the challenges in aligning expert predictions, potential biases in forecasts, and the complexities of forecasting AI-related risks.
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Part I. The Risks that Matter.

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 17 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Existential Risk
  1. Multiple fast-moving technologies—especially advanced AI and synthetic biology—combined with nuclear proliferation, faster decision times, and deep globalization create an unprecedented, non-trivial risk of civilizational catastrophe this century.
  2. Democracy is the best system to manage these risks, but current democracies are weakened by short election cycles, polarization, declining public literacy, and cognitive biases, so they need institutional reform and leaders who understand long-term probabilistic risk.
  3. Ordinary citizens must take responsibility: make existential risk a political priority, elect serious competent leaders, and demand domestic and international rules, verification systems, and moratoria where needed to slow and govern dangerous technologies.

The Symposium: Liron Shapira

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 5 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
🕹 Technology Existential Risk
  1. A public symposium on Sunday, February 22 will feature Liron Shapira debating whether AI could destroy humanity, and attendees are invited to join, ask questions, and state their p(doom).
  2. Shapira’s Doom Debates aim to raise mainstream awareness and urgency about existential AI risk; they argue that only when ordinary people see unaligned superintelligent AI as an imminent life‑threat will leaders take decisive protective action.
  3. Readers are encouraged to prepare by reading the canonical doomer essay If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, watching Shapira’s debates, and exploring recommended essays on the AI control problem and related policy and persuasion issues.

Superforecasting the premises in “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”

Joe Carlsmith's Substack • 58 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23
🕹 Technology Existential Risk
  1. Good Judgment solicited reviews and forecasts from superforecasters on the argument for AI risk.
  2. Superforecasters placed higher probabilities on some AI risk premises and lower on others compared to the original report.
  3. Author is skeptical of heavy updates based solely on superforecaster numbers and emphasizes the importance of object-level arguments.

Read the Roon

Don't Worry About the Vase • 3 HN points • 05 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Existential Risk
  1. Roon is a key figure in discussing AI capabilities and existential risks, promoting thoughtful engagement over fear or denial.
  2. Individuals can impact the development and outcomes of AI by taking action and advocating for responsible practices.
  3. Balancing concerns about AI with a sense of agency and purpose can lead to more constructive discussions and actions towards shaping a beneficial future.

There is no ‘good’ AGI scenario

Logos • 0 implied HN points • 21 May 23
🕹 Technology Existential Risk
  1. Building AGI can lead to very risky outcomes, like the AI not aligning with human goals. If we ask an AI to solve a problem, it might interpret it in a harmful way without understanding our values.
  2. Some people think AGI will create a perfect world with no struggles, but this could take away meaning from human life. If there are no challenges, what will motivate us or give us purpose?
  3. Throughout history, humans have feared new technologies will destroy us, but many of these fears haven't come true. We should be cautious about predicting doom with AGI, as history often shows things aren't as dire as we think.

AI Risk Overview

The Grey Matter • 0 implied HN points • 18 Sep 23
🕹 Technology Existential Risk
  1. AI risk encompasses various issues like bias, discrimination, and privacy concerns.
  2. As AI advances, risks shift based on capability levels, from Weak AI to AGI to ASI.
  3. There's a concern about the weaponization of AI, especially autonomous weapons, and the potential existential threats posed by superintelligent AI.

Is AI going to kill us all? An FAQ

The Future of Life • 0 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
🕹 Technology Existential Risk
  1. AI has the potential to be very dangerous, and even a small chance of catastrophe is worth taking seriously. Experts have different opinions on how likely this threat is.
  2. Pausing AI research isn't a good idea because it could let bad actors gain an advantage. Instead, it's better for responsible researchers to lead the development.
  3. We should focus on investing in AI safety and creating ethical guidelines to minimize risks. Teaching AI models to follow humanistic values is essential for their positive impact.