The hottest Existential Risk Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Science Topics

The Extinction Tournament

Astral Codex Ten • 9153 implied HN points • 20 Jul 23
🔬 Science Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Existential Risk Technology
  1. Experts and superforecasters had a strong disagreement on the likelihood of global catastrophes.
  2. The tournament explored global disaster risks, with 'Catastrophe' meaning an event killing over 10% of the population, and 'Extinction' meaning reducing human population below 5,000.
  3. The tournament highlighted the challenges in aligning expert predictions, potential biases in forecasts, and the complexities of forecasting AI-related risks.

Superforecasting the premises in “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”

Joe Carlsmith's Substack • 58 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23
🕹 Technology AI Forecasting Existential Risk AGI
  1. Good Judgment solicited reviews and forecasts from superforecasters on the argument for AI risk.
  2. Superforecasters placed higher probabilities on some AI risk premises and lower on others compared to the original report.
  3. Author is skeptical of heavy updates based solely on superforecaster numbers and emphasizes the importance of object-level arguments.

Read the Roon

thezvi • 3 HN points • 05 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Social media Mysticism Tech Ethics Existential Risk
  1. Roon is a key figure in discussing AI capabilities and existential risks, promoting thoughtful engagement over fear or denial.
  2. Individuals can impact the development and outcomes of AI by taking action and advocating for responsible practices.
  3. Balancing concerns about AI with a sense of agency and purpose can lead to more constructive discussions and actions towards shaping a beneficial future.
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AI Risk Overview

The Grey Matter • 0 implied HN points • 18 Sep 23
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Existential Risk
  1. AI risk encompasses various issues like bias, discrimination, and privacy concerns.
  2. As AI advances, risks shift based on capability levels, from Weak AI to AGI to ASI.
  3. There's a concern about the weaponization of AI, especially autonomous weapons, and the potential existential threats posed by superintelligent AI.