The hottest Forecasting Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Try The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest

Astral Codex Ten • 3097 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🔬 Science Forecasting Predictions Technology Research Competition
  1. The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest is now open for predictions. It's a great opportunity for anyone interested to share their forecasts on various topics.
  2. This year, there are new forecasting bots participating, and it'll be exciting to see how they compare to top human forecasters. The contest wants to explore how well these bots can predict outcomes.
  3. The questions this year are designed to be interesting and relevant, so many people can take part. The contest aims to engage everyone's thoughts on important issues.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Home Sales Economic data Forecasting
  1. Existing home sales stayed steady at an annual rate of 4.15 million in December, the same as November. This shows slight improvement compared to the previous year.
  2. The average price of existing single-family homes increased by about 5.6% compared to last year. This indicates that home values are generally rising.
  3. The upcoming report from the National Association of Realtors is expected to show even higher sales this month. If confirmed, it would be a third month of increasing year-over-year sales.

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

Astral Codex Ten • 16656 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Forecasting Betting Market Analysis Political trends
  1. Polymarket, a prediction market, did well during the recent election by accurately calling results and gaining popularity. However, there are still concerns about accuracy in their pricing, particularly regarding Trump shares.
  2. It's important not to overreact to single significant events when making predictions. Even if things seem to favor one hypothesis after an event, it doesn't mean we should change our overall beliefs drastically.
  3. The reliability of prediction markets like Polymarket compared to non-money forecasting sites like Metaculus is still up for debate. Past performance shows non-money forecasters often have better accuracy, and big bets from individuals can create misleading odds in prediction markets.

✨ The Age of AI: Will 2025 be our last normal year?

Faster, Please! • 1279 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Innovation Forecasting Economic Impact Automation
  1. AI technology is rapidly evolving, and some predict it could change our everyday lives significantly by 2025. If this happens, what we consider 'normal' now might no longer exist.
  2. Recent advances in AI, like OpenAI's new model, have made experts rethink how soon we might see 'strong' AI that can perform complex tasks like humans. This raises important questions about the future of work and society.
  3. Despite the excitement around AI, not all experts believe we are close to seeing a major economic boom from it. Predictions about technology can be tricky, and history shows change can take a long time.

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Silver Bulletin • 9424 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Forecasting Political Analysis Campaigns
  1. In the final simulations for the election, Kamala Harris won slightly more than half of the time, but Donald Trump also had a strong chance, especially with potential ties in the Electoral College.
  2. The modeling approach adjusts for different polling methods and emphasizes reliable polls, aiming to offer a clearer picture of who might win the election.
  3. There’s still uncertainty in elections, and surprising outcomes can happen, so many factors could influence the final results.
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A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

Silver Bulletin • 905 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis Forecasting
  1. The presidential race is extremely close, almost a 50/50 chance for each candidate. This makes it tough to predict who will win.
  2. Recent simulations showed a slight edge for Kamala Harris, but overall results were very mixed, indicating a highly uncertain outcome.
  3. Voting is crucial in this tight race; it really comes down to what people choose, making it more important than any guessing games.

The polls are close, but that doesn’t mean the results will be

Silver Bulletin • 666 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Candidates Forecasting
  1. Polls show a very tight race, but this doesn't guarantee a close election outcome. Both candidates could end up winning by a larger margin than the polls suggest.
  2. Polling errors can happen in either direction, making the election unpredictable. Even a small error could lead to a surprising result on election day.
  3. The focus should be on battleground states, as those will ultimately determine the winner regardless of national polls. The voting patterns in these key areas could lead to differing results from the national poll averages.

Who Predicted 2023?

Astral Codex Ten • 8534 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Forecasting Prediction Contest Algorithm Data Analysis
  1. The Annual Forecasting Contest on astralcodexten.com involves participants making predictions about various questions, helping to determine if one identifiable genius or aggregated mathematical predictions work best for foreseeing the future.
  2. The winners of the contest were both amateurs and seasoned forecasting veterans, showcasing a mix of skill and luck in predicting outcomes.
  3. Metaculus outperformed prediction markets, superforecasters, and the wisdom of crowds in the contest, suggesting that consistent high performance might be rare but achievable with specific methods like those used by superforecaster Ezra Karger.

SBSQ #14: Election Day lightning round!

Silver Bulletin • 507 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Forecasting Campaigns Political theory
  1. Election Day tends to be calm since there’s not much to do until results come in. It's a good time to reflect instead of focusing too much on exit polls.
  2. Different prediction models, like FiveThirtyEight's, can have varying odds for candidates which might not reflect the true situation. It's important to pay attention to both polls and the underlying fundamentals.
  3. There are concerns that too many prediction models can lead pollsters to stick closely to common predictions, impacting the variety of polling results we see.

Cogent Analysis

Doomberg • 7086 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis Forecasting Energy markets
  1. Analysts focus on continuous learning and understanding, while advocates tend to rationalize or attack inconvenient facts.
  2. Economies heavily reliant on energy resources like Russia may evade recession despite sanctions due to their unique market dynamics.
  3. US economy's short-term resilience and avoidance of recession can be attributed to various energy-related factors, such as LNG export approvals.

Astera Labs IPO - The Next Connectivity Superhero or Steamrolled By Competition?

SemiAnalysis • 5354 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
💼 Business Technology Finance Competition Market Analysis Forecasting
  1. Astera Labs is a key player in the AI infrastructure market, supplying connectivity chips to hyperscalers, AI accelerator vendors, and system OEMs.
  2. Connectivity in the datacenter market is highly competitive, but Astera Labs has the opportunity to become a connectivity 'Superhero' by maintaining market share and expanding product lines.
  3. Astera Labs focuses on solving connectivity bottlenecks in high-speed interfaces by offering retimers to improve signal integrity, particularly targeting PCIe 4.0 and 5.0 specs.

Mantic Monday 2/19/24

Astral Codex Ten • 4473 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Prediction Markets Forecasting Blockchain
  1. AI forecasters are becoming more prevalent in prediction markets, with the potential for bots to compete against humans in forecasting events.
  2. FutureSearch.ai is a new company building an AI-based forecaster that prompts itself with various questions to estimate probabilities.
  3. The integration of AI in prediction markets like Polymarket could increase market participation and accuracy, offering a new way to predict outcomes on various topics.

The Extinction Tournament

Astral Codex Ten • 9153 implied HN points • 20 Jul 23
🔬 Science Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Existential Risk Technology
  1. Experts and superforecasters had a strong disagreement on the likelihood of global catastrophes.
  2. The tournament explored global disaster risks, with 'Catastrophe' meaning an event killing over 10% of the population, and 'Extinction' meaning reducing human population below 5,000.
  3. The tournament highlighted the challenges in aligning expert predictions, potential biases in forecasts, and the complexities of forecasting AI-related risks.

The Pipeline Metrics That Matter

Bottom Up by David Sacks • 281 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💼 Business Sales Marketing SaaS Metrics Forecasting
  1. Tracking pipeline generation is crucial for growth in SaaS companies. If new opportunities are increasing, it's a good sign to hire more sales staff; if not, boost marketing efforts.
  2. Understanding pipeline conversion metrics helps identify where improvements are needed. Knowing how long deals take to close and where they tend to get stuck can lead to better sales processes.
  3. Active pipeline metrics allow for accurate forecasting. Keeping an eye on open opportunities and their expected close dates helps businesses plan and strategize effectively.

How to make use of inductive biases

Mindful Modeler • 219 implied HN points • 04 Jun 24
🔬 Science Machine Learning Interpretability Forecasting Modeling
  1. Inductive biases play a crucial role in model robustness, interpretability, and leveraging domain knowledge.
  2. Choosing inherently interpretable models can enhance model understandability by restricting the hypothesis space of the learning algorithm.
  3. By selecting inductive biases that reflect the data-generating process, models can better align with reality and improve performance.

Buying Time

Comment is Freed • 93 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Government Forecasting Spending Budgeting
  1. The government is trying to slow down a financial crisis by making tough choices, but this is just a temporary fix. They've had to reverse some tax cuts and allow for more borrowing.
  2. The previous government's budget projections were unrealistic, leading to anger and concerns about how much spending was really needed. Many departments are facing serious issues.
  3. Despite these reversals, the government doesn't have much time left to make the situation better. They're in a tough spot and need to find new ways to improve the economy.

When to Use Forecasting for Decisions

Abstraction • 19 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💼 Business Decision-making Forecasting Risk management Strategic Planning Data Analysis
  1. It's not always worth it to forecast when making decisions. Sometimes it's better to prepare for the worst or trust experts who know what they're doing.
  2. For less important choices, you can follow proven rules or experts. This makes decision-making easier and saves time.
  3. When facing big decisions, like moving cities, it's smart to gather data to guide your choice. Using information about others’ experiences can help you make better decisions.

Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economy Real Estate Forecasting
  1. Housing prices are expected to rise a little in 2025, but not by much. People think the increase will be in the low to mid single digits.
  2. Sales of new and existing homes are predicted to go up next year. However, existing home sales will likely stay around four million.
  3. The construction of multi-family homes is not expected to improve in 2025. Builders are generally cautious about starting new multi-family projects.

Artificial Intelligence Weather Model AIFS

Open-Meteo • 843 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Data Forecasting
  1. ECMWF released its cutting-edge artificial intelligence weather model AIFS as open-data, marking a significant move in the open-data weather forecasting landscape.
  2. AIFS uses Graph Neural Networks to learn complex weather patterns, showcasing superior accuracy in longer-range forecasts exceeding 5 days.
  3. While AIFS has limitations in weather variables range and interval forecasts, its open availability enables users to compare its forecasts with traditional models, offering a new perspective in weather forecasting.

The U.S. Economy is Roaring. Why Should Rates Come Down?

The Overshoot • 452 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates Growth Inflation Forecasting
  1. The U.S. Economy is showing strong growth and may not need rate cuts despite controlled inflation.
  2. Traders anticipate interest rates to decrease, but data suggests a period of faster growth akin to past economic booms.
  3. Initial forecasts of a U.S. recession were proven wrong, with the economy growing over 3% and showing resilience against negative predictions.

Tang Shiping predicts Trump "highly likely" to win - probability more than 60%

Pekingnology • 56 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Forecasting Political Analysis Modeling Public Opinion
  1. A professor predicts that Donald Trump has a greater than 60% chance of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election. This prediction is based on computer simulations rather than traditional polling.
  2. The simulations suggest Trump will likely win key states like Michigan, Ohio, and Florida, while Harris is expected to win states like Georgia and Arizona.
  3. The forecasting method used is known as Agent-Based Modeling, which combines real data about voters and economic conditions to make predictions rather than relying on expert opinions.

Chinese Hydropower - Large and Underappreciated

Syncretica • 648 implied HN points • 06 Nov 23
💰 Finance Energy Forecasting Economics
  1. China has the largest hydropower sector globally, with a significant impact on power generation worldwide.
  2. Hydropower output is heavily influenced by weather conditions, with recent rainfall improvements expected to boost Chinese hydropower production.
  3. The strong growth in Chinese hydropower output is likely to lead to a decrease in fossil fuel imports and a reduction in thermal power generation.

Let me fix those forecasts for you

Klement on Investing • 7 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Forecasting Equities Financial trends
  1. Forecasts for stock market returns are often inaccurate. For example, analysts expected the S&P 500 to rise by about 8% in 2024, but it actually rose by 23%.
  2. Historical data shows a low correlation between predicted and actual stock market returns. Over the last 20 years, the correlation for analysts' forecasts has been very weak.
  3. Using forecast errors, we can adjust predictions for the next year. For 2025, the S&P 500's return could realistically range from a 29% drop to a 47% increase.

Reconsidering the "2020s as 1940s" Analogy

The Overshoot • 550 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economic History Global Economy Government Response Debt crisis Forecasting
  1. The global economy faced crises in different time periods, revealing government responses can impact recovery.
  2. Excessive debts before a crisis can hinder growth post-crisis, affecting employment and national income.
  3. Governments borrowing and spending during emergencies can lead to positive outcomes, improving sectors and reducing debt burdens.

Building Models to Predict the Future

Growth Croissant • 353 implied HN points • 31 Mar 23
💼 Business Forecasting Subscription Market Analysis Financial planning Business Growth
  1. Subscription business models are more predictable and easier to forecast compared to other models.
  2. A reliable forecast can provide baseline expectations for growth, shift focus to long-term revenue, and help set goals and allocate investments.
  3. Forecasting new paid subscriptions and predicting paid cancels are key components in building a forecast model for a subscription business.

Predicting the Future

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 4 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Forecasting Intelligence Psychology Cognition Political trends
  1. Predicting the future is hard because people often think they're better at it than they really are. Many make mistakes like being too confident or not paying attention to the facts.
  2. Some people, called superforecasters, are really good at making accurate predictions. They focus on facts, break problems into smaller parts, and keep track of their past predictions to learn from them.
  3. To improve predictions, it's important to express guesses as probabilities, look for different opinions, and stay open to changing your mind when new information comes in.

The election model is a little too popular

Silver Bulletin • 334 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election coverage Media influence Decision-making Forecasting Partisanship
  1. The election model became overwhelmingly popular, potentially overshadowing other content.
  2. The author is considering different strategies to manage the model's audience and impact.
  3. There are various options being considered, like putting the model behind a paywall or appealing to different types of audiences.

Ensemble Weather Forecast API

Open-Meteo • 351 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Weather API Forecasting Models Documentation
  1. Ensemble weather forecasts show a range of possibilities, helping to understand the uncertainty in predictions.
  2. Weather forecasts differ in reliability based on location and weather patterns, affecting the level of uncertainty in predictions.
  3. The Ensemble API combines various weather models, providing access to different weather variables for various purposes.

A Different Approach to Revenue Estimates Leveraging Alternative Data

The Data Score • 138 implied HN points • 24 May 23
💰 Finance Investment Data Analysis Market research Customer Behavior Forecasting
  1. Leveraging alternative data for revenue estimates goes beyond traditional transaction data, focusing on customer acquisition and retention insights.
  2. Applying the customer acquisition funnel framework to alternative data can help identify early trends and potential growth issues in a business.
  3. Monitoring the journey from awareness to loyalty using alternative data sets can offer valuable insights for predicting sustainable revenue growth beyond the short term.

Advancing Beyond Short-Term Solar Forecasts [Pt.2]

Space Ambition • 79 implied HN points • 08 Dec 23
🔬 Science Astrophysics Forecasting Machine Learning
  1. It's important to understand the solar cycle better and predict solar storms. These storms can cause big financial losses and affect many technologies we rely on.
  2. Currently, we can only accurately predict space weather for about three days ahead. This is because solar events happen quickly, and predicting them is really complicated.
  3. We need more advanced tools and methods, like machine learning, to improve our predictions. Using new technology can help us learn more about the Sun and its effects on Earth.