Don't Worry About the Vase

A world made of gears. Doing both speed premium short term updates and long term world model building. Currently focused on weekly AI updates. Explorations include AI, policy, rationality, medicine and fertility, education and games.

The hottest Substack posts of Don't Worry About the Vase

And their main takeaways

Subsidizing Prediction Markets

0 implied HN points • 17 Aug 18
  1. Subsidizing prediction markets requires clear and well-defined rules to ensure efficiency.
  2. Quickly resolving payouts is crucial for market success and participant satisfaction.
  3. The subsidy strategy can involve providing liquidity, incentivizing trading activity, or subsidizing market making to attract participants.

Tidying One's Room

0 implied HN points • 16 Aug 18
  1. Tidying your room involves interpretive labor of dealing with past intentions and indexing of items.
  2. Tidying someone else's room can be seen as an act of aggression since it disrupts their memory indexing system.
  3. Avoid accumulating 'debt' by shoving things aside instead of finding a proper place; clean until you find lost items to maintain equilibrium.

The Second Circle

0 implied HN points • 20 May 18
  1. The importance of prioritizing connection in interactions
  2. The impact of having a facilitator in group activities
  3. The significance of having a clear purpose or topic for discussion

The First Circle

0 implied HN points • 18 May 18
  1. Attend important conversations and listen actively without disturbing the flow.
  2. Consider the reasons behind people's reactions and updates to better understand the situation.
  3. Maintain a critical perspective on important topics, like AI safety and development timelines.

The Sheepskin Effect

0 implied HN points • 05 May 18
  1. Completing the last year of high school or college is much more profitable than previous years.
  2. The sheepskin effect suggests that employers pay for the degree (sheepskin) rather than the built human capital over time.
  3. The sheepskin effect serves as evidence that the education premium is mostly due to signaling and ability bias.
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The Case Against Education: Splitting the Education Premium Pie and Considering IQ

0 implied HN points • 29 Apr 18
  1. Bryan Caplan makes cases against education based on education premium sources - human capital, signaling, and ability bias.
  2. IQ plays a significant role in earnings, but the education premium still remains unexplained, pointing towards other factors like mathematical ability.
  3. Employers value conscientiousness and conformity over IQ testing, indicating the importance of factors beyond intelligence in the job market.

The Case Against Education: Foundations

0 implied HN points • 21 Apr 18
  1. Many people forget a lot of what they learn in school within a few years, which questions the effectiveness of current educational systems.
  2. Adults struggle with basic arithmetic and science knowledge, highlighting a significant gap in practical skills and understanding.
  3. The idea that more schooling equals more skills and better economic prospects may not necessarily hold true, as factors like signaling and ability bias play complex roles.

The Eternal Grind

0 implied HN points • 30 Mar 18
  1. Eternal is a mobile card game similar to Magic: The Gathering, designed by Magic professionals with simplifications and tweaks.
  2. The game mechanics have differences from Magic, such as new names for components, threshold effects for mana, and relic weapons instead of planeswalkers.
  3. The game offers different formats for play, a unique economy system where cards are created using shiftstone, and a variety of strategies in constructed play.

Sacred Cash

0 implied HN points • 03 Mar 18
  1. Money used to be sacred, but now there's an increasingly free market for it.
  2. When money isn't considered sacred, it changes how possessions and trade are valued.
  3. Moving from sacred money to non-sacred money can have consequences, like falling victim to a 'slack tax.'

Understanding-1-2-3

0 implied HN points • 23 Jan 18
  1. In complex discussions, relying on System-1 rather than System-2 can lead to quicker understanding.
  2. Using a system of levels like understand-1, understand-2, and understand-3 can help clarify how well a concept is comprehended.
  3. Being able to teach or defend a concept indicates a deeper level of understanding.

I Vouch For MIRI

0 implied HN points • 17 Dec 17
  1. AI Safety is a critical, under-funded cause that requires more attention and support.
  2. Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) is considered an exceptional organization for donations in the realm of AI Safety.
  3. Supporting MIRI's research efforts can have significant positive impacts on advancing AI Safety and improving decision-making processes.

The Darwin Results

0 implied HN points • 25 Nov 17
  1. In a game scenario, a simple strategy may not always lead to victory.
  2. Cooperation and betrayal can drastically alter game outcomes.
  3. Tactical decisions and group dynamics play a crucial role in determining success in competitive environments.

The Darwin Game

0 implied HN points • 15 Nov 17
  1. In The Darwin Game, players submit programs to play an iterated Nash bargaining game.
  2. Success in the game requires strategies for both early and late game scenarios.
  3. Considerations for maximizing points in the game include cooperation, survival, and efficient strategies.

Seek Fair Expectations of Others' Models

0 implied HN points • 17 Oct 17
  1. Most discussions around AGI do not rely on models of machine learning progress.
  2. It is unfair to expect immediate answers to complex questions without prior preparation.
  3. Predictions are valuable, but not everyone has thoroughly thought through every aspect of a problem.

Welcome to the World

0 implied HN points • 14 Oct 17
  1. Zvi Mowshowitz welcomed his second son, Gideon Mowshowitz, in October 2017.
  2. Zvi is taking a break from posting as he adapts to being a parent again.
  3. Zvi is open to strategic consultation for causes he doesn't oppose, with limited response times.

Full Service

0 implied HN points • 24 May 15
  1. New Jersey has a law against self-service gas for 70 years, even though most residents want to keep it.
  2. The law might exist to create jobs by making gas stations hire attendants, even if it seems unnecessary.
  3. People might undervalue the convenience of self-serve gas because they are used to having someone else pump their gas.

The Fish-Head Monk

0 implied HN points • 14 Oct 17
  1. The fish-head monk wished for more than what he had, hindering his spiritual progress
  2. Material wealth can either help or hinder spiritual attainment, depending on how it's used
  3. It's important to focus on personal spiritual growth rather than comparison or outward appearances

Sabbath Commentary

0 implied HN points • 07 Oct 17
  1. Taking a break for a Sabbath can help manage outside pressures and too many choices.
  2. Sabbath dinner can promote social gatherings, cooking skills, and self-sufficiency.
  3. Being physically present with loved ones and disconnecting from screens are valuable habits.

Write Down Your Process

0 implied HN points • 24 Jul 17
  1. Writing down your process helps you understand it better and improves your reasoning.
  2. Sharing your thought process helps others learn and can lead to self-improvement.
  3. Documenting your ideas through writing makes you a better writer and thinker.

Choices are Bad

0 implied HN points • 22 Jul 17
  1. Having too many choices can make decisions harder and reduce perceived value.
  2. Having to make a choice forces you into 'choosing mode' and can be costly in time and effort.
  3. Avoiding unnecessary choices can help with focus and relaxation.

On the Seattle Minimum Wage Study (part 2)

0 implied HN points • 11 Jul 17
  1. The Seattle Minimum Wage Study suggests that when the minimum wage goes up, some jobs are eliminated, but others have increased wages to compensate.
  2. Data shows that the increase in the minimum wage in Seattle led to an overall rise in wages, particularly above $19/hour, indicating a positive impact.
  3. Changes in the composition of the workforce and the booming economy in Seattle offer alternative explanations to the effects of the minimum wage increase, highlighting the complexity of its impact.

Just Saying What You Mean is Impossible

0 implied HN points • 28 Jun 17
  1. Saying exactly what you mean is impossible in social interactions
  2. Human communication involves implicit messages and probabilistic analysis
  3. In everyday conversations, people convey multiple messages beyond the surface level

Book Review: Weapons of Math Destruction

0 implied HN points • 04 Jun 17
  1. The book discusses the misuse of big data and machine learning in decision-making processes.
  2. It focuses on the negative impact of algorithms ranking people and options, and the fairness concerns.
  3. The author also touches on issues related to employment algorithms, insurance, and credit ratings.

Against Facebook: Comparison to Alternatives and Call to Action

0 implied HN points • 22 Apr 17
  1. Minimize the need to constantly check multiple places for important information by using tools like RSS readers.
  2. Agree on communication responsibilities to avoid assumptions about what information has been seen, especially on platforms like Facebook.
  3. Utilize various online communication methods strategically, such as email, blogs, and forums, to control what you see and engage meaningfully.

You're Good Enough, You're Smart Enough, and People Would Like You

0 implied HN points • 09 Apr 17
  1. Don't underestimate yourself, you're probably ready to do more than you think
  2. Start by lurking, then commenting, then leading - you're likely more capable than you realize
  3. Even if you're scared, take a step forward, the community needs your skills and leadership

Restaurant Guide 1: Restaurants should not look like (most) restaurants

0 implied HN points • 05 Mar 17
  1. Restaurants send signals about what they are, and it's important to read those signals to know if it aligns with what you want.
  2. When choosing a restaurant, prioritize walking around, asking people, and reading professional reviews for the best results.
  3. Pay attention to menu details like prices, uniqueness, and descriptions to judge the quality and offerings of a restaurant.

On Cutting Wages

0 implied HN points • 24 Dec 15
  1. Cutting wages can have a huge impact on company morale and time management.
  2. Maintaining a fair and stable pay structure can reduce stress, increase productivity, and maintain team cohesion.
  3. If financial survival is dependent on cutting wages, it may be a sign that the company's future is not sustainable.

The Thing and the Symbolic Representation of The Thing

0 implied HN points • 30 Jun 15
  1. Sometimes people value the symbolic representation of something more than the thing itself.
  2. In healthcare, people often prioritize signaling care over actual health outcomes.
  3. Many products and services focus more on symbolic representation than on delivering real benefits.

Self Service Roundup

0 implied HN points • 11 Jun 15
  1. Competition between self-service and full-service was heavily influenced by lobbying for favorable laws.
  2. Self-service stations cut out important services like water, air, and emergency assistance to undercut full-service stations.
  3. Requiring basic assistance at all gas stations can ensure good public goods and equality, but can also lead to further market manipulation.

What If It Rains?

0 implied HN points • 29 May 15
  1. Consumers resist price changes to meet supply and demand, causing issues in resource allocation.
  2. In a competitive market, businesses may prioritize hijacking sales over providing quality service.
  3. Location-based competition can lead to a surplus of similar stores, wasting storefronts and reducing overall utility.

Beginners' Meditation

0 implied HN points • 14 Oct 17
  1. The meditation class focused on getting to know yourself through simple breathing exercises.
  2. The instructor emphasized the importance of daily practice, even if it's just for two minutes.
  3. The experience highlighted the disconnect between the purpose of meditation and the actual practice in the class.

Fresh Bread

0 implied HN points • 21 Jul 20
  1. Learning to bake bread can be a rewarding quarantine activity.
  2. The bread recipe is quick, flexible, and delicious.
  3. You can enjoy fresh hot bread, easily customized to your preference.

Covid 7/16: Becoming the Mask

0 implied HN points • 16 Jul 20
  1. Masks may reduce severity of Covid-19 if infected.
  2. Vaccines are showing promising results.
  3. Sports can bring joy while adapting to new health protocols.

Legends of Runeterra: Early Review

0 implied HN points • 13 May 20
  1. Legends of Runeterra has some cool elements but also some drawbacks, especially in terms of strategic depth.
  2. The game has reliable performance on both mobile and PC, but the mobile deck builder may have some issues.
  3. Legends of Runeterra features unique gameplay mechanics such as spell mana and champion cards, but it may have complexities and timing issues that can be frustrating.

What is Success in an Immoral Maze?

0 implied HN points • 10 Jan 20
  1. Being in an immoral maze is not worth it.
  2. Success in an immoral maze does not mean happiness or personal growth.
  3. Identifying and avoiding immoral mazes is crucial for personal well-being.

Laws of John Wick

0 implied HN points • 24 May 19
  1. John Wick universe showcases two main systems: Rule of Law and Rule of Man
  2. Rule of Law in John Wick 2 focuses on strict rules and consequences, while Rule of Man in John Wick 3 centers around power and loyalty
  3. Overall, the world of John Wick operates under the Rule of Cool, which influences the characters' actions and ultimately shapes the narrative

Tales From the American Medical System

0 implied HN points • 10 May 19
  1. Obtaining legal permission to buy life-saving medication in America is a complex and frustrating process.
  2. Accessing necessary medication can sometimes involve significant delays and bureaucratic obstacles.
  3. Patients may face challenges and complexities in navigating the American medical system to ensure they receive essential care.

Deck Guide: Burning Drakes

0 implied HN points • 13 Nov 18
  1. The deck guide outlines a Burning Drakes deck with potential improvements for different match-ups
  2. The strategy focuses on handling specific threats in different opponent decks
  3. The deck underwent adjustments based on playtesting and different sideboard plans for various matchups

Octopath Traveler: Spoiler-Free Review

0 implied HN points • 05 Nov 18
  1. Octopath Traveler is an excellent game for fans of classic JRPGs like Final Fantasy and Chrono Trigger.
  2. The game innovates in combat mechanics like the break system and path actions, making battles more strategic.
  3. There are difficulty spikes in the game, especially in the endgame, and grinding is necessary to overcome them and complete the final challenges.