The hottest Construction Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Culture Topics

Hello (New) World!

Nova Terra News • 738 implied HN points • 15 Apr 24
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Nova Terra Inc. is focused on creating a sustainable future through innovative building materials like EcoBlox made from lime-stabilized compressed earth blocks.
  2. The founder, Lisa Morey, has a background in earthen masonry and is passionate about infusing technological innovation into traditional building methods.
  3. Acceleration in business growth, pitching to major projects like the Georgia O'Keeffe museum, and receiving positive feedback have energized Lisa Morey and Nova Terra Inc. for a promising future.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.404 million Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Housing starts rose in December to a 1,404,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 6.2% from November but 7.3% below December 2024.
  2. Building permits climbed to a 1,448,000 SAAR in December, improving month-to-month but still modestly below a year earlier; single-family activity was weaker while multi-family starts increased.
  3. For all of 2025, total starts were down 0.6% versus 2024, with single-family starts falling about 6.9% and multi-family rising roughly 18%, and housing units under construction remain elevated.

America's Housing Rebound

The Overshoot • 1316 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Despite high mortgage rates, construction and renovation spending in the US housing market have been holding steady or accelerating.
  2. Housing sales and construction are greatly impacted by changes in monetary policy and credit availability.
  3. The rebound in house prices and construction reflects the broader growth and asset price acceleration in the US economy post-pandemic.

“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Postscript 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Construction
  1. High housing costs in cities like San Francisco and Boston are driven mainly by restricted housing supply, not by unique economic 'superstar' demand; limited new construction makes existing homes much more expensive.
  2. The 2008 shift in federal mortgage access, together with slowing construction, changed price dynamics by reducing low-tier buying power and pushing rents up, as seen in Phoenix where low-end prices and rents diverged.
  3. When formerly fast-growing cities cut housing growth to the low rates of supply-constrained cities, they converge toward higher rents and low vacancy rates; cities that kept building (for example, Austin) have shown more stable vacancies and relatively better affordability.

The current high value of residential investment

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 210 implied HN points • 08 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. A long shortfall in residential construction since the mid-2000s has left roughly a 15 million‑home gap and driven net residential investment down from a sustainable ~2% of GDP to about 0.6%, creating a cumulative $7 trillion deficit.
  2. That shortage has inflated land rents across many cities, acting as a regressive transfer from renters and new buyers to existing owners and raising nominal GDP and inflation without raising real GDP.
  3. Building many more homes—especially rental and 'missing middle' units bought by investors—would replace land rents with structure rents, lower housing costs over time, and shift wealth away from landowners toward renters and new homeowners.
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On Klein on Construction

Construction Physics • 10021 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
🔬 Science Construction
  1. Construction industry productivity issues may be due to organized special interests influencing the process with complex regulations and stakeholder approvals.
  2. Regulations have increased costs in construction through additional input requirements and negotiation delays.
  3. Increased regulation in the construction industry might not be causing productivity stagnation more than in other sectors, but it is a significant factor to consider.

America is Losing Blue Collar Jobs

Apricitas Economics • 80 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Blue-collar employment is falling broadly across manufacturing, construction, transportation, mining, and utilities — roughly 65,000 industrial jobs lost in the past year and about 123,000 fewer trade jobs than the early‑2025 peak.
  2. Manufacturing has been shrinking for more than two years and now makes up less than 8% of the workforce, with big job losses in autos and electronics as demand for durable goods and consumer tech softens.
  3. Construction hiring has slowed sharply (residential trades have lost about 55,000 jobs), driven by the end of the COVID homebuilding boom, weaker energy and trucking activity, and policy choices like tariffs, immigration enforcement, and subsidy cuts that have worsened the decline.

Reading List for 11/9/24

Construction Physics • 2087 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
đź•ą Technology Construction
  1. Using drones and AI to monitor construction sites can help identify issues and improve efficiency. This tech can make construction safer and more effective.
  2. Microsoft's plan for mass-timber data centers is an attempt to cut carbon emissions, but energy use for operating them has a much bigger carbon footprint than the building materials.
  3. The trend of smaller windows in buildings to save energy might not be the best solution. It's better to focus on creating more clean energy rather than limiting our energy use too much.

What the What?

Nova Terra News • 279 implied HN points • 22 Apr 24
🔬 Science Construction
  1. Nova Terra's EcoBlox are sustainable building blocks that are free of cement, fireproof, and made from waste materials.
  2. The EcoBlox are 4x stronger than traditional adobe, climate-friendly, mold-resistant, and earthquake-resistant.
  3. The production of EcoBlox involves using sand and clay fines from rock quarries, and the company is collaborating with partners like NREL and West Gate for innovation.

“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Postscript 3

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Construction
  1. A nationwide scarcity premium—people paying extra for limited location/lots rather than for actual housing—explains almost all of the elevated home prices and rents, especially in constrained metro areas. It will only fade as supply rises or closed-access cities reform, otherwise it could persist for decades.
  2. Tighter mortgage access since 2008 raised effective rents and shifted value away from ownership of structures toward land/scarcity, hitting lower-income neighborhoods hardest and increasing gross rental yields. This change also reduced who can buy and altered the kinds of homes that get built.
  3. A rapid correction of the scarcity premium requires a big building boom and a return toward earlier lending norms, which could cut the adjustment to 10–15 years; blocking construction or restricting investors will stretch the correction out over many decades.

⤴⤵ Up Wing/Down Wing #50

Faster, Please! • 548 implied HN points • 28 Jun 25
đź•ą Technology Construction
  1. Truck unloading is getting faster and safer with robots that can move packages quickly and reduce physical strain on workers.
  2. Google's new offline robot can perform complex tasks, showing how adaptable and capable modern AI technology has become.
  3. New York is building a nuclear power plant to provide clean energy, reflecting a push for faster and more reliable energy solutions.

December 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Construction
  1. The housing market is in a long, slow recovery: construction, rents, and prices are gradually rising and a housing shortage makes a conventional recession hard to trigger.
  2. Measured inflation is roughly at the 2% target once shelter is excluded, but recent CPI gains are mainly driven by rent/shelter and a bit of tariff-driven noise.
  3. Policy and shocks matter: tariffs and looser Fed policy could lift inflation again, but without a major shock or chaotic policy change the slow recovery should keep chugging along as new homebuilding slowly raises capacity.

October 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. September and October residential construction updates are now available and cover recent activity for those months.
  2. Full details are behind a subscription paywall, but there is an option to claim a free post or subscribe to read everything.
  3. The write-up includes detailed month-by-month construction reporting for readers who access the full content.

Have rents stopped rising?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Rent inflation has been much higher for lower-income families than for higher-income families, and public statistics don’t capture that difference well.
  2. Rents appear to have flattened since 2022, prompting the question of whether rents have stopped rising or are starting to correct.
  3. New home completions rose by roughly 600,000 a year after COVID, but whether that is enough to stop rent inflation depends on housing supply elasticity; rough estimates suggest about 2.5 million units a year might be needed to neutralize rent pressure.

Reading List 11/16/24

Construction Physics • 1043 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Miami tried to become a new tech hub, but it didn't get much venture capital funding, showing it hasn't really worked out.
  2. Modular construction is growing, especially for fast food restaurants, where buildings can be completed in just 24 hours.
  3. The average homebuyer in the U.S. is now 56 years old, which reflects the aging population in the country.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Active housing inventory has risen sharply — active listings are up about 12% year‑over‑year and this marks many consecutive months of inventory gains, bringing supply closer to pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Existing‑home sales fell in 2025 to the lowest level since 1995, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though a big wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most homeowners have strong equity and low mortgage rates.
  3. The new‑home market is disappointing: builders are carrying many completed and under‑construction unsold homes and are cutting prices to compete with increased existing‑home inventory.

NMHC on Apartments: "Lower rent growth and higher vacancies" in Q4

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. The Market Tightness Index is 32, well below the breakeven 50, which signals looser market conditions and points to lower rent growth and higher apartment vacancies.
  2. Sales activity has slowed — the Sales Volume Index dropped to 47, indicating a pullback in deal flow even though many respondents saw little change quarter-to-quarter.
  3. Financing is more available: the Debt Financing Index is 75 and the Equity Financing Index is 53, reflecting improved borrowing and capital availability after a modest decline in long-term yields.

The Profound Pleasure of Physical Tasks

The Analog Family • 319 implied HN points • 16 Nov 23
🎭️ Culture Construction
  1. Doing physical tasks can bring a lot of joy. It often feels satisfying to work with your hands and see real results from your efforts.
  2. Many people feel tired or unfulfilled after long periods of only using screens. Engaging in hands-on activities can help us feel more connected to ourselves and the world around us.
  3. There is a real need to create and use our hands. Participating in craft or physical hobbies can boost our emotional well-being and give us a sense of achievement.

New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. New single-family home sales ran at a 737,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in October, essentially unchanged from September and about 18.7% higher than a year earlier.
  2. Supply is elevated: months of supply stayed at 7.9 months (above the normal 4–6 month range), with completed homes, units under construction, and 'not started' inventories all high and 'not started' at an all-time high.
  3. The median new home price is roughly 15% below its peak, mainly because the mix of homes sold shifted toward lower-priced units.

"Architecture firm billings remain soft to end the year"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Architecture firm billings have been in prolonged decline, with the ABI below 50 for most of the last three years and at 48.5 in December, indicating contracting demand. Because the ABI typically leads CRE investment by 9–12 months, this points to a likely slowdown in commercial real estate investment through 2026.
  2. Multifamily residential billings are especially weak—below 50 for 41 consecutive months and at 45.5—so new multifamily starts are likely to weaken further. This sector looks more vulnerable than institutional or other commercial work.
  3. Overall construction spending is down about 1.0% year‑over‑year, with private residential down 1.3% and private nonresidential down 2.6%, while public construction is up roughly 2.1%. That split means overall construction demand remains fairly soft despite modest public spending gains.

Trends in Buenos Aires Real Estate

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 157 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Construction
  1. Average prices for apartments in Buenos Aires vary by neighborhood, with popular areas like Palermo and Recoleta having higher prices.
  2. Neighborhoods in the northern corridor of the city have average prices around $3,000/m2, while other areas like Villa Crespo offer good value below Palermo pricing.
  3. Investing in new developments in Buenos Aires' real estate market can be more attractive due to lower construction costs despite a devaluation in the currency.

Procore

Business Breakdowns • 294 implied HN points • 27 Jun 23
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Procore is a leading software provider for the construction industry, offering a streamlined dashboard for developers, contractors, and architects.
  2. Procore's unique revenue model charges based on the number of modules used and total construction volume flowing through the customer's business.
  3. The company's strong market position, brand value, and low gross churn rate indicate potential for consistent growth and future profitability.

Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Residential investment is likely to be down year‑over‑year in 2026.
  2. Total housing starts are expected to fall slightly as multi‑family starts decline while single‑family starts remain mostly unchanged.
  3. New home sales are likely to be largely unchanged year‑over‑year, though forecasts are uncertain because three months of data are missing and units under construction remain above pre‑pandemic levels.

2023 Was the Year 3D Printed Homes Hit the Mainstream

The New Urban Order • 99 implied HN points • 05 Dec 23
đź•ą Technology Construction
  1. 3D printed homes have become mainstream in 2023, with various projects and collaborations showcasing their potential.
  2. There is optimism that 3D printed homes could help solve the affordable housing crisis due to potential cost reduction, sustainability, and efficiency benefits.
  3. However, skepticism exists around whether the popularity of 3D printed homes will be lasting, similar to the limited uptake of traditional 3D printing technology for everyday use.

The Times They Are A'Tricky

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Construction
  1. Regional housing sales and construction trends may not be as useful as they seem. The data can be confusing and may not reflect the real situation on the ground.
  2. New home inventory is increasing, which usually signals potential discounts in the market. But some believe it could lead to a recession.
  3. Home prices are significantly higher than they should be and may need to drop around 40% to reach normal levels. This presents both risks and opportunities for builders and investors.

The Math of the Housing Crunch

The Sunday Morning Post • 58 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Construction
  1. The housing crisis has worsened in recent years due to factors like increased rents and higher home prices, impacting policymakers and individuals alike.
  2. The root of the housing crunch dates back to the Great Recession in 2007, leading to a significant drop in new home construction that never fully recovered.
  3. To ease the housing crunch, there is a need for an increase in the construction of various types of housing units, which has already shown some promise in the rental market.

May 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Multi-family home construction is back to normal levels seen before COVID-19. This means more apartments and similar housing are being built again.
  2. Single-family home construction is still taking longer than usual. Builders are facing challenges, but they're working through them.
  3. Overall, the U.S. housing construction market is facing some issues like high mortgage rates and tariffs on materials. This has led to a drop in new builds, but it's not all bad news.

Construction season

Tabletops • 98 implied HN points • 26 Jun 23
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Various Apple stores are undergoing maintenance and improvements globally.
  2. Apple plans to open a new store at Birkdale Village in North Carolina.
  3. Apple collaborates with Illustri Festival to display artwork at Apple Piazza Liberty in Milan.

The N-stamp

Gordian Knot News • 109 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. The N-stamp certifies a vendor's quality assurance process but doesn't guarantee the actual quality of their products. It's more about paperwork than real product inspection.
  2. In shipbuilding, multiple independent inspection teams check quality because they want to avoid costly mistakes. This extra layer helps ensure that ships meet the specifications and are delivered on time.
  3. The nuclear industry's reliance on the N-stamp allows vendors to skip necessary inspections, leading to poor quality products. This system could result in very high costs due to failures in quality control.

Apple Boylston Street

Tabletops • 78 implied HN points • 02 May 23
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Apple's store designs appear effortless and are iconic in urban settings.
  2. The process of building an Apple store involves overcoming obstacles like public approval and construction delays.
  3. Apple Boylston Street is unique and was the largest store in the U.S. at the time, showcasing distinctive architectural features.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Total housing starts fell to a 1.246 million annual rate in October, down about 4.6% from September and 7.8% from a year earlier, and were well below expectations.
  2. Single-family starts rose month-to-month to about 874,000 but remain down roughly 7–7.8% year-over-year and 7.0% year-to-date, while multi-family starts fell in October and year-over-year yet are up about 18% year-to-date, showing a split between housing segments.
  3. Building permits were essentially flat at about a 1.412 million annual rate, slipping slightly month-to-month and year-over-year, and housing units under construction remain elevated, keeping a sizable pipeline of supply.

The Minneapolis Miracle

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Construction
  1. Minneapolis experienced a drop in rents in 2021 and 2022 but the correlation between housing construction and rent trends isn't conclusive. It's important to assess data carefully before drawing conclusions.
  2. Auckland, New Zealand, has visible rent decreases due to effective supply-side reforms, contrasting with Minneapolis where the impact of such reforms is less clear.
  3. The correlation between income, new home construction, and rent inflation post-Great Recession reveals unusual patterns, possibly influenced by mortgage suppression policies, highlighting the need for comprehensive data analysis.

December 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Construction jobs are slowly increasing, reflecting overall job growth in the economy. This could mean more houses being built soon.
  2. There seems to be uncertainty in the construction market, as it doesn't fit historical patterns. It's unclear if residential construction jobs will continue to rise or stabilize.
  3. A lag in supply chains might be causing delays in construction. This suggests that the housing market might improve once those supply issues are resolved.

"A Year of Moderation" Begins for the Construction Sector

The Sunday Morning Post • 58 implied HN points • 21 May 23
đź’Ľ Business Construction
  1. Home Depot reported a 4.2% decline in sales for Q1 2023, marking the start of a period of moderation in the construction sector.
  2. Lower home construction numbers are impacting sales of materials like lumber and affecting big-ticket item purchases.
  3. Factors like higher interest rates, inflation, and economic uncertainty are contributing to the slowdown in the construction market.