The Overshoot $18 / month

The Overshoot focuses on understanding and analyzing global economic dynamics, financial market trends, and policy decisions. It addresses macroeconomic challenges, bank bailouts, effects of sanctions, bond yields, globalization shifts, and central bank strategies. It aims to dissect complex issues impacting economic growth, productivity, trade, and inflation.

Macroeconomic Trends Financial Markets Economic Policy and Regulation Global Trade and Sanctions Interest Rates and Inflation Globalization and Deglobalization Banking and Fiscal Crises Productivity and Economic Growth

The hottest Substack posts of The Overshoot

And their main takeaways

America's Housing Rebound

1316 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
💼 Business Housing Real Estate Construction Mortgage Rates Economic Growth
  1. Despite high mortgage rates, construction and renovation spending in the US housing market have been holding steady or accelerating.
  2. Housing sales and construction are greatly impacted by changes in monetary policy and credit availability.
  3. The rebound in house prices and construction reflects the broader growth and asset price acceleration in the US economy post-pandemic.

The U.S. Economy is Roaring. Why Should Rates Come Down?

452 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates Growth Inflation Forecasting
  1. The U.S. Economy is showing strong growth and may not need rate cuts despite controlled inflation.
  2. Traders anticipate interest rates to decrease, but data suggests a period of faster growth akin to past economic booms.
  3. Initial forecasts of a U.S. recession were proven wrong, with the economy growing over 3% and showing resilience against negative predictions.
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Can the EU Squeeze Hungary?

235 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics EU Financial system Currency
  1. European leaders are exploring financial warfare against Hungary due to obstruction over aid to Ukraine
  2. Inflicting financial pain on Hungary may not work as the country has developed defenses against external pressure
  3. Hungary has had a persistent large current account surplus since the 2008 financial crisis

Doing My Part to Raise R*

1120 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
💼 Business Economics Interest Rates
  1. Interest rates have been low due to various social challenges.
  2. Decrease in population growth leads to lower interest rates.
  3. Encouraging fathers to take parental leave can benefit both men and women in the workplace.

Reconsidering the "2020s as 1940s" Analogy

550 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economic History Global Economy Government Response Debt crisis Forecasting
  1. The global economy faced crises in different time periods, revealing government responses can impact recovery.
  2. Excessive debts before a crisis can hinder growth post-crisis, affecting employment and national income.
  3. Governments borrowing and spending during emergencies can lead to positive outcomes, improving sectors and reducing debt burdens.

The Bank of England's Jonathan Haskel on Inflation, Productivity, Brexit, and More

511 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation Productivity Brexit Monetary Policy Economic Impact
  1. The Bank of England is grappling with the challenges of high inflation, low GDP, and rising unemployment due to tight labor and energy markets.
  2. There is significant uncertainty in economic forecasts, leading to a cautious approach in monetary policy decisions.
  3. Brexit has had a major impact on the UK's productivity growth and economic performance, with factors like weak business investment and health-related inactivity contributing to the situation.

"Soft Landing"? More Like "No Landing"

471 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economic data Inflation Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. economy is showing strong growth despite persistent inflation and may accelerate further.
  2. Inflation is returning for manufactured goods, potentially putting upward pressure on prices.
  3. Interest rates may need to rise more than expected, leading to a disconnect with recent declines in real yields.

Whither Globalization? And What Would that Even Mean, Anyway?

452 implied HN points • 07 Feb 23
  1. Global economic integration peaked around 2008 with differences among countries
  2. China has been championing deglobalization, decreasing reliance on imports and exports
  3. Recent U.S. policy shift reflects a desire for reciprocity in trade

The Mysterious $300 Billion Flow Out of China

373 implied HN points • 10 Feb 23
  1. About $300 billion may have left China in ways not captured by conventional balance of payments statistics.
  2. China's current account surplus may be under-reported due to discrepancies in goods trade surplus estimates.
  3. The investment income deficit in China has raised questions as the numbers don't align with the country's net foreign asset position.