The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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#165 – Anti-Predictions

Below the Line from Kevin LaBuz • 7 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Predicting the future is really hard, so instead of trying to guess what's coming, focus on being adaptable. It's better to prepare for many different possible outcomes rather than relying on one prediction.
  2. Time shows us what ideas and practices last. We should pay more attention to things that have proven their value over time, rather than just what's new or trendy.
  3. Surviving and reducing risks is more important than chasing success. By making sure you avoid big dangers, like too much debt, you can set yourself up for long-term success without the fear of losing everything.

About Cybersyn, the Company

Magis • 36 implied HN points • 13 Apr 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Cybersyn, a startup, recently raised a Series A funding round.
  2. The company focuses on data, finance, economics, and DaaS.
  3. Common questions about Cybersyn include what the company does, the data it uses, and who is involved.

Macro America Great Again

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 8 implied HN points • 28 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Tariffs are taxes on imports that can increase prices for consumers. When companies bring products from abroad, they pay these taxes when the goods arrive in the country.
  2. The concept of comparative advantage suggests that countries should specialize in what they do best. This means countries can save money and resources by trading instead of trying to produce everything themselves.
  3. Using tariffs can lead to higher prices and less efficiency in production. This approach can disrupt supply chains and hurt the overall economy, making things more expensive for everyone.

#50: Leaving money on the table

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 59 implied HN points • 14 Oct 20
💼 Business Economics
  1. Being prepared for uncertainty may seem like a waste, but it's actually important. It helps businesses adapt when things go wrong.
  2. Being fair to employees, customers, and suppliers pays off in the long run. If you treat them well, they are more likely to help you in tough times.
  3. Operating responsibly might look inefficient, but it creates flexibility. This flexibility is a valuable resource that businesses can rely on during unpredictable situations.
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Let's talk about the Olympics

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 25 Jan 21
🎾 Sports Economics
  1. The costs of proceeding with the Olympics are trivial, and it is safe to go ahead with the event even with minimal attendance in stadiums.
  2. The number of people required to stage the Olympics and be vaccinated is relatively low, making the cost of prioritizing their vaccinations over others very small.
  3. Continuing with the Olympics despite the pandemic provides a sense of normality and value to many countries, with minimal costs and the potential for international cooperation towards global vaccination efforts.

Pregnancy, non-linear optical computing, and open business model strategies

The Strategy Toolkit • 8 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Countries with aging populations are trying to boost birth rates but often overlook the real-life choices and challenges that people face. Understanding psychology and behavior can help shape better strategies for families.
  2. Many individuals feel pressured about starting families due to career concerns. Now, some are even planning pregnancies to align with job stability needs.
  3. Good strategists realize that issues related to family planning are global and not limited to just one country, highlighting a broader trend in society.

Lutnick Goes to Washington

Net Interest • 8 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Interdealer brokers connect traders without revealing who they are. This helps big companies make deals quietly, without affecting the market price.
  2. Even in a world dominated by technology, many traders still value personal interaction and market insights from human brokers. These brokers can find the best prices and handle complex trades in ways machines can't.
  3. Howard Lutnick's story is compelling, especially given his background and experiences. His role as a leader in interdealer broking may influence his approach as Commerce Secretary.

Longer, then faster

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The proposed One Big Beautiful Bill Act could increase the US deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next ten years. This could lead to higher interest rates on government bonds, which makes borrowing more expensive.
  2. With rising debt, long-term Treasury yields are likely to go up significantly. As the debt burden increases, investors in the bond market might react quickly, which can lead to sharp changes in interest rates.
  3. The impact of increasing debt might not be felt right away, but it can snowball quickly. It's important to keep an eye on these trends because economic changes can happen faster than expected.

3/16/22 Digest New Format! The Official Word on Common Prosperity

Tech Buzz China Insider • 19 implied HN points • 29 Mar 22
💼 Business Economics
  1. China aims for 'Common Prosperity' balancing income levels without sacrificing prosperity.
  2. Key strategies include boosting resources for low-income earners, lowering barriers between regions, and fair tax distributions.
  3. Zhejiang chosen as a pilot zone for its advanced digital economy; China plans to export its 'Common Prosperity' methods worldwide.

Chegg, ChatGPT, and the changing nature of change

Platforms, AI, and the Economics of BigTech • 8 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Chegg's struggle shows how modern businesses face not just ordinary problems but bigger changes that redefine the whole market. They can lose ground quickly when something new, like AI, gives customers a better option.
  2. Companies need to think differently about competition today. It's not just about beating the businesses they know, but also about new solutions that take away their customers.
  3. When change happens quickly, businesses should look for ways to make that change permanent. This means creating new systems or services that keep customers even after the initial change fades.

Money Supply Growth Continues to Support the Stock Market

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Money supply growth is crucial for supporting the stock market as it indicates the tightness or looseness of current monetary conditions, regardless of interest rates set by the Fed.
  2. Monitoring money supply trends can provide insight into the direction of the economy and stock market - a rise in money supply can have inflationary effects.
  3. Historical trends show that fluctuations in money supply can influence stock market movements, with drops often preceding market dips.

Clouded Judgement 11.14.24 - Market Tipping to Growth

Clouded Judgement • 8 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. The software market is shifting back to focus on growth after years of prioritizing profitability. Many companies are now showing better free cash flow, which is a good sign.
  2. Recently, market indicators suggest that investors are less focused on profitability and are starting to reward growth again. Companies that adapt will likely benefit.
  3. With advancements in AI and a more favorable economic outlook, companies are increasing their investments in growth. This could lead to a recovery in revenue growth, which many stakeholders are eager to see.

Why The Nobel Prize Fails

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 8 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Some people believe the recent winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics didn’t do groundbreaking work, making it hard to justify their award. They think their research doesn't show enough significant change in the field.
  2. Critics say the winners' theories overlook important historical contexts, like the impact of slavery and colonialism, which are vital for understanding economic development. They argue the winners should have connected their work more with historical literature.
  3. Despite the criticisms, the research done by the Nobel laureates has sparked a lot of ongoing discussions in economics. It has shaped how many economists think about development issues today.

What happens when you ask 146 economists the same question?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 24 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. When 146 economists analyzed the same data about a policy, they found similar results despite minor differences in their estimates. This suggests that economists can broadly agree when working with the same information.
  2. The researchers found that differences in opinions among economists often arise from how they interpret data and their theoretical models. So, disagreements aren't always about facts but can depend on personal beliefs and biases.
  3. The study showed that with clear instructions and the same data, economists tend to reach almost the same conclusions. This challenges the idea that economists will always have conflicting views.

It's 2025 and life is still messy

Klement on Investing • 6 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The author writes on various topics related to economics and finance throughout the week, with Mondays focusing on ESG and sustainability, and Fridays being more lighthearted and fun.
  2. The posts challenge common theories and emphasize understanding the real world through experimental data rather than traditional economic models.
  3. Life and financial markets are unpredictable, and it's important to embrace curiosity about how things really work instead of relying on rigid theories.

Some tariffs are worse than others

Economic Forces • 7 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Tariffs can hurt jobs and the economy, especially when they target parts instead of finished products. This can raise costs for manufacturers and lead to job losses.
  2. Not all tariffs are created equal; some can actually help domestic industries if designed carefully, but they can also create odd workarounds that waste resources.
  3. Policymakers need to think carefully about how they set tariffs. Simple solutions often lead to complex problems that can waste money and resources.

My Favourite Spoof Papers

By Reason Alone • 29 implied HN points • 22 Apr 23
🔬 Science Economics
  1. Academia has a tradition of publishing joke papers to make serious points.
  2. Some papers have humorous names and content that push the boundaries.
  3. Spoof papers address serious topics in a funny way to provoke critical thinking.

Common Chicanery about Competition (from the archives)

Economic Forces • 6 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. You don't need complete knowledge or information for competition to exist. All you need is an understanding of your own likes and the price of the goods.
  2. Competition does not mean that companies make no profit. In fact, if prices are above costs, companies can still earn profits even in a competitive market.
  3. You don't need an endless number of buyers and sellers to have competition. Even a few sellers can compete if their products are good substitutes for each other.

Wolves and Sheep Choosing Dinner

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 7 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Democracy and economic growth are connected, but it's complicated. Generally, democracies tend to be richer and have higher growth than non-democracies.
  2. A country's political and economic institutions shape its development. Inclusive institutions promote growth and prosperity, while extractive institutions hold back progress.
  3. Culture plays a big role in shaping how people view democracy and governance. Factors like history and community values influence economic and political beliefs.

Going cashless in Nigeria: How startups are digitizing payments in the country's trickiest verticals

Afridigest • 15 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Nigeria is a leading fintech hub in Africa, receiving a significant amount of funding in the sector since 2022.
  2. Despite fintech activity, cash remains prevalent in Nigeria, especially in everyday transactions like public transportation, informal economy vendors, and fuel purchases.
  3. Startups in Nigeria are innovating to overcome challenges in digitizing payments in tricky sectors, offering solutions like digital payment systems for transportation, mobile money for informal vendors, and e-wallets for fuel payments.

How relative pricing shapes customer choices

A Bit Gamey • 6 implied HN points • 29 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. The value of a product often relies on how it's compared to other options. If you see a bad choice, it can make the others look better.
  2. Using a three-tier pricing model can influence customer decisions. Setting prices close together can nudge people towards the more expensive option.
  3. It's smart to always have a higher-priced option available. Even if it doesn't sell much, it can make lower-priced options appear more attractive.

What you see is all there is

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. People tend to focus only on the most obvious information when making decisions. This can lead to ignoring important factors like fund fees.
  2. A recent study showed that changing how fees are presented can significantly influence investment choices. Making fees stand out can lead to people choosing lower-fee funds more often.
  3. Simple changes in how information is displayed can help investors make better choices. This is important for improving their long-term financial success.

Start the week #85: Circularity

Eclecticism: Reflections on literature, writing and life • 7 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🚌 Education Economics
  1. Starting a new career can come from a need to adapt to changing job markets. It's important to explore new opportunities when your current field seems uncertain.
  2. Learning new skills is crucial, and sometimes it takes the help of others to succeed. Getting guidance from colleagues can make a big difference.
  3. Connections made in the past can lead back to new opportunities. You might meet people again who can help you progress in your career.

Boost German consumption, blow up more ATMs

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Germans save more and spend less compared to other Europeans, often preferring cash over digital payments. This is influenced by a cultural focus on privacy and past experiences with authoritarian regimes.
  2. Cash is less convenient as it requires ATMs, and when ATMs are unavailable, people tend to use electronic payments more. This shift can lead to increased spending as people don't 'feel' the money leaving their wallets.
  3. Researchers found that locations with bombed ATMs saw a temporary increase in spending. Therefore, limiting ATM access could be a quirky way to encourage more consumer spending in Germany.

The Economics of brat

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 7 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🎭️ Culture Economics
  1. Partying can actually be a smart choice. Having a wide social circle can help you get better job opportunities and earn more money.
  2. Being cool and attractive really matters. Studies show that good-looking people often earn higher wages and have better chances in their careers.
  3. Making connections and forming friendships is important. Knowing the right people can help you succeed, but being around heavy drinkers can lead to risky behaviors too.

Mr. Haltiwanger and the Austrians

Economic Forces • 6 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Entrepreneurs play a crucial role in the economy by discovering better ways to use resources. They find price differences and opportunities, which helps move resources to where they can create more value.
  2. Measuring how well resources are being reallocated can show if markets are functioning efficiently. When more productive firms gain market share, it indicates that resources are being used better.
  3. There’s a connection between entrepreneurship and market dynamics. By focusing on how entrepreneurs impact resource use, we can better understand economic growth and competition.

Zombiecalypse in Startupland

East Wind • 9 implied HN points • 30 Jul 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. The SaaS market is struggling, with many companies facing slow growth. This makes it hard for them to go public or find buyers.
  2. There are lots of startups that were once valued highly, but now they can't exit or sell without losing value. This is creating a backlog of troubled companies.
  3. Investors are still showing interest in AI startups, but there’s a risk of repeating past mistakes and ending up with even more struggling businesses that can't deliver for their investors.

The Rebirth of Retail

Equal Ventures • 19 implied HN points • 08 Sep 21
💼 Business Economics
  1. Establishing a shared offline retail platform using data optimization can result in a monopolistic advantage.
  2. Leap, a retail platform, showed resilience during the pandemic and demonstrated success in improving store performance and payback periods.
  3. The platform dynamics of Leap have led to lower operating costs, higher revenue, and increased brand trust, positioning it as an effective retail platform.

Contra Scott on AI Races

Bretton Goods • 24 implied HN points • 16 May 23
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Under a slow takeoff, the race for general AI is indefinite, and staying ahead is crucial for maintaining an advantage.
  2. In an indefinite race, falling behind can result in a significant GDP gap with long-term implications for military conflicts.
  3. Economic and technological advantages, especially driven by AI, play a critical role in modern warfare scenarios, emphasizing the importance of competitiveness.

The most overlooked skill in pricing and packaging

Good Better Best • 2 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Effective pricing is about more than just numbers; it's like building a muscle that gets better with practice. Teams should focus on improving their pricing strategies regularly.
  2. Clear communication is crucial when changing pricing. If customers don't understand the changes or think they are losing out, it can lead to confusion and complaints.
  3. Early announcements and using visuals can make pricing changes easier for customers. The key is to keep the communication thoughtful and consistent.

Capital One: Buffett’s Latest Banking Pick

Net Interest • 23 implied HN points • 19 May 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Warren Buffett bought $1 billion worth of Capital One stock in the first quarter of this year.
  2. Capital One started as a credit card business, then expanded to become a full-fledged bank through innovative pricing strategies and aggressive marketing.
  3. Capital One's performance depends on various factors, including the unemployment rate, which impacts charge-offs on their credit card portfolio.

Why We Stopped Charging Airbnb Cleaning Fee

Wetware Snippets • 11 implied HN points • 18 Apr 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Removing the cleaning fee led guests to leave the apartment cleaner because they felt a sense of respect for the host and the property.
  2. Guests shift their mindset from social norms, which promote kindness, to market norms when a cleaning fee is charged, thinking that cleaning is no longer their responsibility.
  3. Understanding the difference between social and market norms is important, as mixing them can change people’s behavior in unexpected ways.

Where Cotton's King and Men are Chattel

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 6 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
💾 History Economics
  1. Slavery was profitable for slave owners and played a role in the economic growth of certain sectors, particularly agriculture in the South. This profit, however, came at a huge human cost.
  2. Despite the profitability of slavery, it did not lead to industrialization in the South, as capital was concentrated in slave labor instead of invested in manufacturing. This situation hindered economic development compared to other regions.
  3. After emancipation, while the immediate economic output of cotton farming dropped, the overall economy became more productive in the long run as freed individuals found more efficient roles outside of cotton production.

Economics 101 with Lt. Surge

Malt Liquidity • 12 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Price is never fixed; liquidity is essential for determining true asset value and facilitating trading.
  2. Surge pricing is a rapid increase in price due to fluctuating supply and demand, different from traditional linear pricing models.
  3. In the business of food delivery, balancing in-store and app orders requires strategic pricing adjustments to maximize profitability and control over the network.

Popes are good for business

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Pope John Paul II traveled to many countries, visiting 129 in total, which is more than all the previous popes combined. His trips brought attention to smaller and developing nations.
  2. Visits from the pope seem to boost trade for the countries he visits. This is especially true for poorer nations, which can get international focus during his trips.
  3. Countries with a large Catholic population see an even bigger increase in trade after a papal visit. The pope acts like a powerful trade ambassador when he travels.