The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd)

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) explores various aspects of not-knowing, emphasizing the importance of flexibility and adaptability. It covers topics like consulting approaches, handling clutter, AI limitations, organizational adaptability, managing uncertainty, and personal growth in uncertain times.

Consulting Artificial Intelligence Organizational Dynamics Uncertainty Management Personal Development Minimalism and Clutter Education and Skill Development Health Crises and Responses

The hottest Substack posts of The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd)

And their main takeaways

Meaningmaking at work.

259 implied HN points • 21 Aug 24

AI tools often fail because they can't understand the deeper meaning behind our decisions. They confuse what humans can intuitively interpret.
Meaningmaking is crucial in many business processes. Humans make subjective decisions all the time that machines simply can't replicate.
To create better AI products, we need to separate meaningmaking tasks from other work. This helps us design tools that support human decision-making instead of trying to replace it.

AI's seductive mirage

99 implied HN points • 24 Jul 24

🕹 Technology AI Automation Data Analysis Human-AI Interaction Product Development Ethics

AI systems look like they can think independently, but they really can't. They are tools that need humans to make decisions about value.
Meaning-making is a core human skill that AI lacks. Only humans can decide what actions are meaningful and worthwhile.
When we treat AI as if it can make important decisions, we risk misusing it. It's crucial to keep humans involved in the decision-making process.

Where AI wins.

199 implied HN points • 12 Jun 24

🕹 Technology AI Ethics Data Management Human-Machine Interaction Machine Learning

AI is great at handling large amounts of data, analyzing it, and following specific rules. This is because it can process things faster and more consistently than humans.
However, AI systems can't make meaning on their own; they need humans to help interpret complex data and decide what's important.
The best use of AI is when it works alongside humans, each doing what they do best. This way, we can create workflows that are safe and effective.

Amorphous consulting

319 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24

💼 Business Consulting Management Strategy Organization Ethnography

There are two types of consulting: concrete and amorphous. Concrete consulting is clear and focused on known problems, while amorphous consulting deals with unclear and complex issues.
Amorphous consulting involves starting with open conversations to uncover hidden problems. The consultant learns about the organization’s inner workings that insiders often overlook.
The true value of an amorphous consultant comes from asking the right questions and understanding what clients initially can't see. This helps clarify the scope of the work over time.

A good start

239 implied HN points • 10 Apr 24

💼 Business Consulting Management Strategy Leadership Organizational

Amorphous consulting is about tackling unclear and emerging problems that organizations face. It's often the first step in consulting even if clients don't recognize it or want to pay for it.
Starting with amorphous consulting is cheaper and quicker than hiring a concrete consultant right away. It avoids the lengthy process of re-scoping a project.
Amorphous consultants ask the 'dumb' questions that uncover hidden problems. This approach is useful when there's uncertainty, helping organizations find solutions they didn't even realize they needed.

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Sawdust and aluminum shavings

79 implied HN points • 26 Jun 24

🪑 Design Product Design Interior design Design Philosophy Creative Process

Thinking about tradeoffs helps us deal with uncertainty better. It's like understanding that we have to choose between different options when faced with unknowns.
Clarifying tradeoffs allows us to adapt more easily. When we know what we're giving up or gaining, we can make better choices in changing situations.
Expressing tradeoffs can lead to better shared goals. It helps everyone understand what matters most, leading to more effective teamwork.

AI's meaning-making problem.

119 implied HN points • 22 May 24

🕹 Technology AI Machine Learning Human factors Automation Innovation

Humans can make meaning by assigning value to things, which is something AI cannot do. This includes deciding what's good or bad, worth doing, and how different things compare in value.
AI systems depend on humans for meaning-making to produce useful outputs. When using AI, the skill of the user to interpret and edit outputs is essential for effectiveness.
Understanding that meaning-making is a human ability helps in developing better AI systems. It shifts the focus from what AI can do to what humans do that AI cannot.

A war on Stuff

319 implied HN points • 28 Dec 23

🎭️ Culture Minimalism Consumerism Psychology Aging Design

Stuff can pile up because we think it might be useful later, but most of it just makes life messy and stressful. It's easy to lose track of things when we have too much stored away.
Things are cheap and easy to buy nowadays, leading to lots of excess stuff that often isn’t worth keeping. This leads to clutter that can cause problems if it gets out of hand.
To manage stuff better, we need to be proactive about it. This means designing our spaces and habits to prevent clutter from building up in the first place.

An end to firefighting

79 implied HN points • 08 May 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Making Public Sector Crisis Management Organizational Behavior

Regular management practices often assume stability, which makes teams weak when unexpected events happen. Instead of relying on these outdated methods, teams should prepare for unpredictability.
To stop 'firefighting', organizations need to adjust their staffing expectations and allow roles to evolve as needed. This helps teams stay adaptable in changing situations.
It's important to make experimentation a part of policymaking. By training teams to test ideas effectively, they can respond better to new challenges and avoid being stuck in old ways.

Sneakily effective innovation

79 implied HN points • 24 Apr 24

💼 Business Innovation Product Development Strategy Workshops Consulting

Organizations often avoid innovation because they fear failure and think it's too complicated or expensive. Instead, they can use small and simple experiments to explore new ideas safely.
Learning to ask good questions and frame problems well is essential for effective innovation. This helps teams come up with better experiments that can inform their decisions.
Workshops can offer hands-on experience for teams to develop their innovation skills. By collaborating on real challenges, they can create practical solutions that they can apply again in the future.

AI's missing middle

2 HN points • 18 Sep 24

🕹 Technology AI Applications Startups Business Processes

There is a big opportunity for AI startups to create tools specifically for medium-sized businesses in traditional industries. These businesses could greatly benefit from AI solutions that fit into their existing processes.
Many current AI startups focus on becoming major companies but ignore the needs of smaller markets. By targeting medium-sized firms, startups can develop practical AI applications that have immediate positive impacts.
To succeed, startups need better funding and industry knowledge. Creating focused incubators could help bridge these gaps, allowing more startups to thrive and innovate in the AI space for medium-sized businesses.

Payback time

119 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24

🎭️ Culture Lifestyle Travel DIY Conservation Personal Growth

A connection with nature, like watching sea turtles, can have unexpected and rewarding impacts on our lives. It can lead to personal growth and new adventures.
DIY projects can quickly become overwhelming, especially when unexpected issues arise, like discovering a poorly done floor. Planning can change, and flexibility is key.
Learning to fix things yourself can be a valuable experience, but it often comes with challenges and surprises that test your skills and patience.

Good value governance

119 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Governance Policy Decision-making Risk management Resource Allocation

There's a lot of uncertainty in today's world, not just risk. This means leaders need to understand how these two concepts differ to make better decisions.
Mixing up uncertainty with risk can lead to poor choices and wasted resources. It's important to clarify what you're dealing with to avoid making mistakes.
When leaders are clear about uncertainty, they can use their limited resources more effectively. Strategies that focus on uncertainty tend to be cheaper and work better than traditional risk management.

Well-framed problems

139 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23

🚌 Education Critical Thinking Innovation Collaboration Strategy

Framing problems well is important to find good solutions. It helps to balance being open to many ideas while also being clear about what is acceptable.
Good problem framing encourages innovative thinking. A broad question can lead to more varied solutions than a narrow one.
Making tradeoffs clear in problem framing helps focus the search for solutions. It saves time by pointing us toward the best options while avoiding distractions.

The "good" experiment

159 implied HN points • 06 Sep 23

💼 Business Management Strategy Innovation Empiricism Organizational Behavior

When facing uncertainty, it's better to run small and cheap experiments instead of committing to a big strategy. This keeps you flexible.
A good experiment must have a clear hypothesis, provide useful insights whether it fails or succeeds, and be designed to be sneaky so organizations don’t resist it.
Experimenting helps you learn and get clarity when things are unclear. It's a practical way to tackle problems without getting stuck.

Low-drag machines

79 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24

💼 Business Startups Management Strategy Human Resources Innovation

Startups thrive on uncertainty. It's not something to avoid; it's actually what helps them find new opportunities and grow.
Traditional management practices from established companies can slow down startups. These practices often don't fit their need to adapt and pivot quickly.
To be successful, startups need to embrace an 'uncertainty mindset.' This means understanding the difference between risk and true uncertainty, allowing them to create better strategies and operations.

The hot-air balloon conference

99 implied HN points • 13 Dec 23

🚌 Education Conferences Collaboration

Conventional conferences are like trains with fixed schedules. They do not allow for flexible thinking or new ideas to emerge.
A hot-air balloon conference can explore new ideas and adapt in real-time. It creates space for creative thinking and unexpected discoveries.
To be successful, these conferences need good planning, openness to change, and must encourage participants to collaborate and share diverse perspectives.

"Good" questions

99 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23

🕹 Technology AI Data Innovation Ethics Software

Asking good questions is important for getting useful answers. A good question is one that is foundational, meaning its answer can help answer many other questions.
Foundationality is about understanding questions in a hierarchy. The more foundational a question is, the more it influences other questions.
Thinking clearly and framing questions well can lead to breakthroughs. It may be hard work, but it's necessary to unlock important answers, especially in complex areas like AI.

Rethinking organisation technology

119 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23

💼 Business Organizational Design Human Resources Innovation Strategy Leadership

Conventional hiring methods lead to rigid organizations. Instead, using open-ended roles helps companies adapt better to uncertainty.
Open-ended roles allow employees to shift responsibilities and roles over time. This flexibility helps organizations respond quickly to changing situations.
Organizations need to adopt different strategies for addressing true uncertainty, rather than just managing risk. This means being more open and adaptable from the start.

Bits and pieces.

99 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23

🎭️ Culture Travel AI Urban Studies Cultural criticism

Seoul is a city filled with many coffee shops and restaurants, but navigating it can be confusing due to language barriers and a complicated address system.
The differences between areas in Seoul, like north and south, show how urbanization affects culture and economy, making the city unique and complex.
There's a lack of clear language to talk about personal experiences of places, which is also a problem when it comes to understanding meaning in AI and its impact on human ethics and biases.

Organizational technology for uncertainty work

119 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23

💼 Business Organizational Design Innovation Strategy Risk management

Uncertainty work is different from risk work. While risk work involves clear outcomes and known probabilities, uncertainty work deals with unknowns and needs flexible strategies.
Everyday organizational processes shape how companies function. If these processes are based on outdated best practices that assume stability, they can hinder the ability to handle uncertainty.
To succeed in uncertainty work, organizations must redesign their processes for hiring, goal-setting, and motivation. This means being open to change and creating conditions that encourage learning and adaptation.

Reading the game

119 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23

📖 Philosophy Risk Uncertainty Decision-making Game Theory Innovation

Most games are about taking risks rather than dealing with true uncertainty. In games, the rules and winning conditions are usually clear.
Understanding the difference between risky situations and those filled with true uncertainty is important. Real-life problems, like climate change, involve a lot more unknowns.
To get better at handling uncertainty, we should expose ourselves regularly to uncertain situations. This helps us learn and grow in a world that often feels unpredictable.

Ready for anything

139 implied HN points • 09 Aug 23

🚌 Education Critical Thinking Teaching Methods Curriculum Development

Students need to learn how to adapt to constant change, especially with the rise of digital technology. Traditional teaching methods focused on stable information aren't enough anymore.
Digital proficiency isn't about mastering specific technologies but developing skills to understand and respond to changes. This means being able to identify problems, evaluate sources of information, and think flexibly.
Teaching these skills effectively can happen in any subject, not just in standalone courses. Teachers can use creative methods to build critical thinking while covering standard curriculum content.

Transmission fidelity

39 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24

🕹 Technology AI Tools Skill development

Using tools effectively requires understanding your skill and intent. It's important to know what you want to achieve and how to use tools to get there.
The quality of tools matters a lot. Tools that work well help us execute our plans better and avoid mistakes.
Developing our skills and understanding of our goals can lead to creating better tools. When we know what we want and how things work, we can build tools that fit our needs.

The appreciation of rocks

159 implied HN points • 19 Apr 23

🎭️ Culture Literature Philosophy Art Travel Nature

Rocks can tell us a lot about how things are built and how they should look. A stable pile of rocks feels solid, while a poorly built wall can look off or unstable.
When things seem inconsistent between their appearance and their structure, it creates a feeling that's hard to ignore. This can happen in many areas, like furniture or buildings.
Understanding the different types of not-knowing helps us make better decisions. Just like with rocks, recognizing when something feels off invites us to learn and improve how we build or create.

Introducing not-knowing.

199 implied HN points • 11 Jan 23

📖 Philosophy Uncertainty Knowledge Decision-making Existentialism Cognition

Understanding not-knowing helps us deal with uncertainty in our lives. It’s important to recognize that we often face different types of not-knowing that affect our decision-making.
The world is more interconnected today, which means uncertainties can spread faster. We need to be aware that one issue in one part of the world can quickly impact others.
It's important to accept that we can't know everything. Recognizing our limits can help us manage our emotions better and make clearer decisions in uncertain situations.

Firefighting

99 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23

💼 Business Management Change Management Strategy Leadership

Teams should be designed to adapt quickly to change rather than stay rigid. This means creating temporary project teams that can be evaluated and disbanded if they're no longer needed.
Instead of focusing on strict, clear KPIs, organizations should promote flexibility. This allows teams more freedom to make the right choices based on changing situations.
Employees should be encouraged to take on roles that allow for continual change. This mindset helps everyone prepare for shifts in their jobs and the organization as a whole.

Good brittle

99 implied HN points • 28 Jun 23

🕹 Technology Software AI User Experience Adaptation Design

Situated software is made for specific needs in small groups. It may lack polish but works well for those it helps.
Good brittleness means being tailored to a specific situation and easily adapting when things change. This makes systems and products more responsive.
We should focus on building things that are both suited to situations and able to change easily, rather than just aiming for large, flawless systems.

Naming risky situations

99 implied HN points • 03 May 23

📖 Philosophy Decision-making Uncertainty Epistemology

The term 'risk' is often misunderstood and misused. Many people think it means a situation where we know some things but don't know the outcome, even though true risk is much rarer.
Decision-making strategies designed for formal risk scenarios may not work well in real-life situations, which often involve many unknowns. This can lead to poor choices when we apply the wrong approach.
Different people define 'risk' in various ways, which creates confusion in communication. It’s important to clarify what we mean when we talk about risk to make better decisions.

Approaching the wood

119 implied HN points • 22 Feb 23

📖 Philosophy Existentialism Human experience

Not-knowing is something we all deal with, but it can be seen as a chance to learn and grow rather than just a problem to handle. Embracing not-knowing can lead to better outcomes.
When working with materials like wood, we can either try to eliminate imperfections or learn to work with them to enhance our final product. This approach can lead to more unique and lively creations.
The way we handle uncertainty in life can be similar to how we deal with materials. Instead of seeing constraints as negative, we can view them as opportunities to creatively adapt and improve.

Beach reading.

59 implied HN points • 23 Aug 23

📚 Literature Fiction Book Reviews Reading Culture Literary Analysis

Quality Trash books have great writing and fun topics that aren't too serious, making them perfect for relaxing reading, especially at the beach.
Cozy mysteries often fit into the Quality Trash category because they mix interesting characters and amusing plots, which can lead to enjoyable series.
Quality Trash might seem silly but often touches on deeper ideas, letting readers enjoy them in different ways depending on their mood.

Quality time

79 implied HN points • 05 Apr 23

💼 Business Marketing Trends Consumer behavior Innovation Branding

To find out what's new and important in products, look at meta-influencers. They help spot future trends better than big influencers who have a large following.
Quality means different things to different people. It changes over time as new product features and consumer interests evolve.
Watch the patterns among consumers to identify emerging groups that care about similar quality markers. This will help you understand potential future market segments.

Finding the third way

59 implied HN points • 31 May 23

📖 Philosophy Existentialism Decision Theory Epistemology Innovation Critical Thinking

There are two common reactions to uncertainty: one is to act like everything is knowable and try to control it, which can lead to poor decisions. The other is to give up and think that nothing can be done about the unknown, which doesn't help either.
Instead of sticking to those two extremes, there's a better approach. It's important to recognize that not-knowing can lead to new ideas and actions.
We can break down uncertainties into different types. Understanding these helps us figure out how to deal with situations where we don't have all the answers.

2804m above sea level

79 implied HN points • 01 Feb 23

🎭️ Culture Psychology Sociology Education Personal Growth Creativity

Discussing not-knowing can be uncomfortable, especially when there are too many people involved. It’s hard to have a deep conversation with large and diverse groups.
Different people have different ways of dealing with not-knowing, which can lead to confusion and discomfort during discussions. Finding common ground is important.
Preparing for discomfort in new experiences, like snowboarding, can help. Sometimes, facing unknowns can lead to unexpected enjoyment and learning.

Sneaky strategies

59 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23

💼 Business Public Sector Innovation Data Protection Big Tech Strategy

It's important for innovation to understand and accept uncertainty, especially in public sector work. When organizations ignore not-knowing, they hinder their ability to create new solutions.
Many critical problems in the public sector are complex and difficult to tackle, so innovation is crucial. However, there are obstacles that make it hard for these organizations to embrace uncertainty.
Using creative, low-key tactics can help public sector organizations overcome barriers to innovation. These 'sneaky strategies' can effectively introduce new ways of thinking about challenges.

Human mRNA

39 implied HN points • 12 Jul 23

💼 Business Innovation Management Organizational Culture Networking Strategy

Human mRNA refers to people who connect different groups or teams within an organization. They help share important information that would otherwise stay hidden.
These connectors are valuable because they can translate information between different teams, making it more useful for everyone. This translation helps ideas flow across contexts that may not usually interact.
Encouraging this type of work is important for innovation. Companies should recognize and support these human connectors to help bridge gaps and foster creative solutions.

Overloading and appropriation

39 implied HN points • 17 May 23

📖 Philosophy Language Knowledge Epistemology Uncertainty

Overloading 'risk' means using the word for many situations that aren't really risky. This can lead to confusion and poor decision-making because we apply the wrong methods to deal with those situations.
Appropriating 'uncertainty' refers to using the term in ways that suggest it can be easily measured or controlled. This misleads us into thinking we can manage all unknowns when some can't be quantified and should be treated differently.
Both overloading and appropriation give us a false sense of comfort. They make scary unknown situations feel more manageable when, in reality, we might be ignoring important nuances.

Thinking together about not-knowing.

59 implied HN points • 04 Jan 23

🚌 Education Learning Discussion Innovation Philosophy Workshops

People often face decisions with incomplete information, which is called not-knowing. It's important to develop skills to navigate unknown situations well.
The series aims to explore how to think clearly about not-knowing and improve decision-making in both personal and professional contexts.
Understanding not-knowing can lead to better happiness and innovation. Learning to embrace uncertainty is essential for adapting to a complex world.

#2: Degrees of freedom

379 implied HN points • 13 Nov 19

💼 Business Management Team Dynamics Culinary Arts Risk management

To handle unexpected problems, a team needs the freedom to act. This freedom helps them adapt and respond to changing situations.
Giving people freedom in their work can lead to mistakes, but it also allows for creative solutions. Balancing freedom and structure is important.
Organizations that embrace both risks and uncertainties are often better at dealing with surprises. This means they can thrive even when things don’t go as planned.

Grab bag.

59 implied HN points • 13 Dec 22

🎭️ Culture Philosophy Literature Art Innovation Education Communication

It's important to develop skills to handle uncertainty because the world is becoming more unpredictable. A tool called 'idk' can help with this.
There's a difference between risk and uncertainty that people often mix up. Understanding this can help us make better decisions in uncertain situations.
Innovation and effective goal-setting require clear thinking about trade-offs. By acknowledging trade-offs, teams can be more adaptable and strategic.