Joshua Gans' Newsletter

Joshua Gans' Newsletter focuses on analyzing impacts and responses to COVID-19 across various fields including economics, education, health protocols, and technology. It explores pandemic management strategies, vaccine distribution, data management in health crises, and the adaptation of businesses and societal structures amidst the pandemic, emphasizing on innovation and the need for swift adaptation.

Pandemic Management Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Education and COVID-19 Health Protocols and Screening Vaccine Development and Distribution Data Management in Health Crises Technological Adaptations to Pandemics Business Adaptation and Strategy Public Health Communication Societal Changes due to COVID-19

The hottest Substack posts of Joshua Gans' Newsletter

And their main takeaways

What is going on with the DOJ's case against Apple?

1 HN point • 22 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Antitrust Technology Innovation Regulation Enforcement
  1. Antitrust law plays a critical role in differentiating between good and bad business practices, but should be applied carefully to avoid hindering competition.
  2. The Department of Justice's case against Apple revolves around concerns about practices that may raise switching costs for consumers, such as restrictions on certain app features and iMessage functionalities.
  3. Apple's market share dominance in the US doesn't seem to correlate with antitrust concerns seen elsewhere globally, leading to questions about the effectiveness and necessity of the DOJ's approach.

Big News! The Rapid Screen Pilots have arrived

119 implied HN points • 18 Dec 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic Management Public Health Testing Economic Impact Innovations
  1. The CDL Rapid Screening Consortium, led by Creative Destruction Lab and 12 companies, is implementing rapid antigen screens to enable daily screening to identify and isolate infectious individuals and protect others.
  2. The consortium aims to make rapid screening a part of daily life in Canada, with workers and visitors being frequently screened, helping to minimize exposure and bring economies back to normality.
  3. The initiative addresses the challenge of scaling pandemic management efforts, focusing on ongoing, regular screening to ensure a safer environment and eventually bringing back normalcy to daily life.

Complacency

59 implied HN points • 05 Oct 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Prevention Testing Protocols Risks Innovation
  1. Complacency during a crisis can lead us to let our guard down, requiring constant adherence to protocols to manage the situation.
  2. Strict protocols are necessary, especially in high-risk environments like the White House, and must be followed diligently to prevent breakdowns in the system.
  3. The ongoing COVID-19 crisis demands vigilance from all of us - we need to innovate ways to maintain strict screening protocols and not let our guard down.

Let's talk about the Olympics

39 implied HN points • 25 Jan 21
🎾 Sports Olympics Economics Safety Vaccination International cooperation
  1. The costs of proceeding with the Olympics are trivial, and it is safe to go ahead with the event even with minimal attendance in stadiums.
  2. The number of people required to stage the Olympics and be vaccinated is relatively low, making the cost of prioritizing their vaccinations over others very small.
  3. Continuing with the Olympics despite the pandemic provides a sense of normality and value to many countries, with minimal costs and the potential for international cooperation towards global vaccination efforts.

Scaling ain't cheap or easy

39 implied HN points • 27 Nov 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Testing Challenges Preparation Scaling
  1. Scaling up Covid-19 testing is crucial for returning to normalcy before widespread vaccine distribution.
  2. Implementing large-scale testing efforts requires a coordinated push similar to military operations and campus-wide testing strategies.
  3. Preparing for economy-wide frequent testing demands meticulous planning, infrastructure development, and preparedness on a national level.
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Vaccine Week: Will it be good enough?

39 implied HN points • 16 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccine Immunity Transmission Epidemiology
  1. The effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccine may need to be higher than what regulatory bodies find acceptable in order to truly impact the course of the pandemic.
  2. Even with a vaccine that is 50% effective, wiping out the virus completely may be challenging, especially with lower vaccine coverage.
  3. Vaccines not only need to protect individuals from the virus but also prevent transmission to others, which can have a significant impact on overall disease spread.

Cities and Covid Reopening

39 implied HN points • 04 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic response Data Analysis Economic Impact
  1. Tailored policies based on locality-specific data are crucial for effective Covid-19 management in different cities.
  2. Different US cities have unique network structures affecting the impact of various policies like work from home or essential work.
  3. Understanding city network structures and demographics can help predict policy outcomes, and this data remains relatively stable over time.

Black swans and Covid-19

19 implied HN points • 10 Mar 21
🔬 Science Pandemics Risk Assessment Infectious Diseases Vaccines Global impact
  1. Covid-19 was not truly a black swan event despite its extreme consequences, as a global pandemic was predictable based on historical precedent and scientific consensus.
  2. Several unexpected positive outcomes emerged during the pandemic, such as minimal surface transmission, limited spread outdoors, and the rapid development of effective vaccines.
  3. The pandemic's string of good luck should serve as a reminder of the unpredictability and potential severity of future global infectious disease events, urging caution and preparedness.

Optimal anxiety?

19 implied HN points • 01 Mar 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Anxiety Public Health Risk management Mental health
  1. Public health messaging often aims to create a certain level of anxiety to manage risks effectively.
  2. Anxiety can have personal and health costs, especially for those who cannot avoid risky situations.
  3. Maintaining anxiety as a tool for risk management may disproportionately impact those who are less well-off.

Planning based on where the puck is gonna be

19 implied HN points • 22 Feb 21
🚌 Education Planning Vaccination Pandemic Decision-making
  1. Universities should plan for a Fall reopening based on forecasts of the pandemic and vaccination progress.
  2. It is reasonable to expect that Canada will reach its Summer vaccine goals, indicating potential for substantial improvement in the situation.
  3. Planning for a Fall reopening offers benefits of being prepared for a favorable outlook and maintaining option value, as opposed to planning to remain closed.

Time for vaccine market positioning

19 implied HN points • 01 Feb 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccines Distribution
  1. Having a diversity of vaccines is beneficial to combat new variants and spread out efficacy.
  2. Market positioning for vaccines can help manage distribution and consumer preferences.
  3. Allocating different vaccines based on preferences, like offering the 'youthful' vaccine to the young, can help avoid a messy distribution process.

B.1.1.7

19 implied HN points • 11 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccines Epidemiology Public Health Measures Testing
  1. The B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2 is 50% more transmissible, likely spreading rapidly globally under several names, including 'UK Variant' and 'Supercovid.'
  2. B.1.1.7 mutations mainly affect the spike protein, raising concerns about vaccine efficacy. Current vaccines may still be effective, but wide distribution could lead to the virus evolving to evade immunity.
  3. B.1.1.7 is outcompeting other variants due to increased transmissibility rather than higher virulence, emphasizing the importance of maintaining mitigation efforts, particularly in high-risk settings, and ramping up testing to contain the spread.

Covid-19 Disruption Experiments

19 implied HN points • 21 Dec 20
💼 Business Economics Entertainment Streaming Movies Experimentation
  1. Covid-19 has forced businesses into experiments, pushing them to face changes they had been avoiding. For example, the movie industry is reevaluating its model post-pandemic.
  2. WarnerMedia is embarking on a disruptive experiment with HBO Max by releasing all 2021 movies on the platform. This move could reshape the industry.
  3. The movie industry is testing a new model by releasing films on streaming platforms first. The outcomes are uncertain but could lead to major shifts in how movies are distributed.

Worry Diary

19 implied HN points • 17 Dec 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Anxiety Testing Symptoms
  1. The lack of information solutions during a family Covid-19 scare caused days of anxiety and uncertainty.
  2. Rapid testing and comprehensive information sharing could have greatly reduced worry and uncertainty during the crisis.
  3. Having access to quick and accurate testing results, along with better information systems, could have provided clarity and peace of mind in the situation.

The Christmas bubble

19 implied HN points • 02 Dec 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health Guidelines COVID-19 Epidemiology Vaccines
  1. The UK Christmas bubble guidelines are complex and restrict gatherings to three households from December 23 to 27.
  2. The guidelines involve various rules on traveling, meeting indoors, and choosing regions with different COVID-19 prevalence levels for forming bubbles.
  3. The guidelines are convoluted, involving scenarios like forming different bubbles from your regular household and ensuring extra precautions within households.

Humans and the perils of Covid-Zero

19 implied HN points • 23 Nov 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic response Contact Tracing Work-life balance
  1. Achieving Covid-Zero, where there are no cases of Covid-19 in a region, is incredibly challenging due to human errors and misinformation.
  2. The story of South Australia's lockdown showcases how misunderstandings can lead to drastic measures, like a statewide lockdown.
  3. It's important to understand the human element in situations like these, emphasizing the need for education and empathy to encourage truth-telling and prevent similar errors.

How many people need to be vaccinated?

19 implied HN points • 13 Nov 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccination Herd Immunity Immune System COVID-19 Public Health
  1. Vaccination aims to protect individuals from the virus as well as stop them from spreading it to others - this distinction is important for determining who should be vaccinated first.
  2. The effectiveness of a vaccine in preventing infection and transmission varies - some vaccines offer indirect protection by blocking transmission between people.
  3. It's crucial to understand how vaccines impact the spread of disease in communities - monitoring vaccinated individuals for contagiousness is essential, especially with imperfect vaccines.

Testing at the door versus testing at the desk

19 implied HN points • 21 Oct 20
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Covid-19 testing Infectious Diseases Epidemiology
  1. Consider testing at the desk instead of at the door to reduce operational challenges and costs, though it comes with the risk of letting infectious individuals into the space
  2. Testing at the desk may lead to fewer infections if it can be done more frequently than testing at the door, highlighting the importance of cost-benefit analysis in testing strategies
  3. Exploring various testing strategies, including combinations of at-the-door and at-the-desk testing, can provide a system with lower cost and less risk in managing infections

If only we knew the viral load

19 implied HN points • 19 Oct 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health Epidemiology Infectious Diseases
  1. Knowing the viral load of infected individuals can assist in understanding the infection's stage and progression.
  2. Ct scores from PCR tests can provide critical data for pinpointing viral infection cycles and determining treatment timing.
  3. Recording and utilizing Ct scores from widespread testing can help map virus dynamics at a population level and enhance understanding without relying solely on time series data.

Data Week: How to collate data

19 implied HN points • 14 Oct 20
🔬 Science Public Health Research Findings
  1. Economist Emily Oster created a dashboard to collect Covid-19 data from schools and childcare centers, providing valuable insights on cases and transmission rates.
  2. Preliminary findings suggest low infection rates in students and staff, indicating that schools may not be major drivers of outbreaks.
  3. The Ontario government is tracking cases in schools, but the data is basic compared to Oster's detailed framework, highlighting the need for more granular data to understand the impact of schools in the second wave.

Data Week: How to manage your data

19 implied HN points • 12 Oct 20
🕹 Technology Data Management Big Data Software Data Analysis
  1. Management of mission-critical data should ensure robust systems to avoid errors like the UK Excel scandal.
  2. Having a unified data infrastructure for COVID-19 reporting across various testing venues is crucial for accurate data collection.
  3. Lessons from data management failures, such as the UK Excel error, underline the importance of investing in advanced data systems for efficient pandemic handling.

Are temperature checks a good screen?

19 implied HN points • 28 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Screening Symptoms Guidelines Risk Assessment
  1. Temperature checks can be a useful initial screening method for Covid-19, as fever is a common symptom among infected individuals.
  2. Precision and accuracy of temperature checks are crucial, as the specificity and prevalence can significantly impact the probability of having Covid-19.
  3. Human factors, like how people interpret and act on temperature readings, are important to consider when implementing screening measures.

We actually did remarkably well

19 implied HN points • 25 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health Pandemic Management Well-being Information Flow
  1. During the Covid-19 crisis, people reacted impressively quickly once they were aware of the seriousness of the situation, leading to a notable global response.
  2. Public health officials sometimes underestimate the public's ability to act sensibly with nuanced information, leading to overly prescriptive directives.
  3. The pandemic response was influenced by local experiences and the availability of information through the Internet and smartphones, which played a significant role in managing the crisis.

When did we know enough to act?

19 implied HN points • 23 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic response Risk Assessment Public Health
  1. Acting early against a virus like COVID-19 is crucial to keeping it under control. Waiting too long can make it much harder to contain.
  2. Experts, like public health officials, were aware of the seriousness of the situation regarding the virus well before certain key dates - like the Wuhan lockdown.
  3. In the early stages of a pandemic, personal risk assessments may not be adequate, and governments should be proactive in imposing restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus.

New Fast Tests and Distress from Regulators

19 implied HN points • 28 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Testing Regulations Infectiousness Public Health
  1. Widespread frequent testing is crucial to quickly deal with Covid-19 and reduce economic pain. Challenges include the need for cheap, rapid tests and regulators changing their approach for pandemic mitigation.
  2. The new Abbott test is a $5 fast test authorized by the FDA, but is limited to use on symptomatic individuals. The test requires administration by healthcare providers, impacting its potential impact.
  3. Regulations can be changed to expand the use of tests like Abbott's which may be more valuable for identifying infectious individuals. The decision to limit the test to symptomatic use may hinder efforts to stop the virus spread.

The Promise of Wearables

19 implied HN points • 26 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Wearables Disease Prevention
  1. Wearables like Fitbit can potentially predict the onset of Covid-19 symptoms a day or two before they appear, offering a convenient monitoring method.
  2. Machine learning algorithms on wearable data can detect Covid-19 cases 1 day before symptoms start with about 21-29% accuracy, a significant advancement.
  3. Symptoms such as shortness of breath and vomiting are more likely to predict hospitalization due to Covid-19, while wearables offer continuous monitoring with broader implications for health management, especially during pandemics.

Bonus: Some Good School News

19 implied HN points • 25 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Education
  1. A UK government study on coronavirus spread in schools showed low monthly rates of cases in students and staff.
  2. Precautions in schools included distancing and bubbles but typically did not require masks.
  3. Outbreaks in schools were correlated with regional incidence, with London notably having no outbreaks.

The Covid-19 Grading Mess

19 implied HN points • 24 Aug 20
🚌 Education Assessment Algorithm Covid-19 Impact
  1. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the challenges of grading students became pronounced, resulting in significant issues with assessment and grading strategies in educational institutions.
  2. The UK's Ofqual algorithm for adjusting predicted grades and translating them to final grades during the pandemic resulted in unfair outcomes, with significant disparities in grading and allocation of University places.
  3. Utilizing algorithms for student grading during crisis situations should incorporate considerations for bias and adjust predicted grades accordingly, to avoid harmful outcomes and ensure fair assessment.

Whither paper?

19 implied HN points • 14 Aug 20
🕹 Technology Workplace dynamics Online Trends Economic Impact Remote work
  1. The Covid-19 pandemic may accelerate the move towards a paperless office, as people adapt to working digitally and without physical paperwork.
  2. Despite the decline in paper use, demand for wood pulp products, such as cardboard boxes for online deliveries, remains strong.
  3. The pandemic has forced organizations to transition away from paper processes, leading to a potential long-term shift towards digital alternatives.

Using rotation to manage school contagion

19 implied HN points • 11 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health
  1. Using rotation in schools can help reduce Covid-19 spread by limiting exposure time, but its effectiveness depends on other interventions like mask-wearing and ventilation.
  2. The frequency of rotations impacts the potential number of infections in schools; rotating every other day can lead to fewer infections compared to longer rotation periods.
  3. Other interventions like mask-wearing and testing can complement rotation strategies, potentially reducing the need for frequent rotations and offering cost-effective solutions to managing contagion in schools.

Together by a tether

19 implied HN points • 05 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Research Economics Prevention Healthcare
  1. New research indicates that implementing better employment policies and creating staff bubbles in nursing homes can reduce Covid-19 outbreaks by 44%.
  2. Covid-19 spreads through contacts in nursing homes, amplified by staff moving between facilities; increasing network connections increases Covid cases significantly.
  3. Creating staff bubbles in nursing homes to eliminate inter-facility connections can potentially reduce infections by 44 per cent.

Vaccine Week: A final worry

0 implied HN points • 18 Sep 20
🏥 Health Politics Vaccines Health Issues Policies Prevention
  1. Vaccines may have unintended consequences such as creating more health issues if not distributed carefully.
  2. There's a risk that a fast and widespread distribution of a 'leaky' vaccine could lead to the acceleration of virulence in viruses.
  3. It's crucial to thoroughly research and understand the potential risks associated with Covid-19 vaccines to avoid unexpected outcomes.

What does an infection tell us about others?

0 implied HN points • 07 Oct 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Contact Tracing
  1. When someone tests positive for Covid-19, it's important to trace their contacts to identify potential spread and find the source of infection - backward tracing can be especially useful.
  2. Frequent testing in places like schools can shift the focus from tracing contacts within the place to outside contacts, highlighting the value of backward tracing to prevent spread.
  3. Investing in apps for tracing outside contacts can be crucial as it may have higher impact than focusing only on contacts within a specific place.

Bits of news

0 implied HN points • 11 Aug 21
📰 News COVID-19 updates Education Public Health Measures
  1. Regular COVID-19 screening in schools with active isolation and testing of contacts can be more effective than closures.
  2. Some regions are implementing vaccine passports for non-essential activities and in-person classes to control the spread of COVID-19.
  3. Enjoy the summer to build mental strength for potential disruptions in the Fall due to COVID-19.

Book excerpt: Telling the Truth

0 implied HN points • 09 Nov 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Communication Trust Misinformation Persuasion
  1. Public officials should be clear and truthful in their messaging to the public to build and maintain trust.
  2. Persuasion is key in encouraging people to take necessary actions, like wearing masks, especially when the public may be reluctant.
  3. In the absence of trusted information sources, misinformation can spread like a virus, impacting public health decisions and outcomes.

To pay or be paid?

0 implied HN points • 16 Dec 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccine distribution Public Health Medical Research
  1. Economists suggest using prices to address vaccine distribution issues. This includes charging for doses to signal demand and potentially paying individuals to take the vaccine.
  2. There is a proposal to pay individuals to receive the vaccine in order to address low demand. By offering subsidies, it can help close the gap in vaccination rates.
  3. Balancing the approach between paying for priority in vaccine distribution and paying individuals to get vaccinated presents challenges. Complexity arises when trying to incorporate financial incentives into the vaccination process.