The hottest Housing Market Substack posts right now

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Erdmann Housing Tracker 2024 in Review (July to December)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. Rising rents are the main cause behind increasing home price-to-rent ratios. This happens when supply is restricted, leading to higher land rents that inflate home values.
  2. Cities with high costs usually face housing shortages because of strict building regulations. They aren't necessarily more desirable but are limited in housing availability.
  3. The mortgage market has changed, favoring higher credit score borrowers, which has reduced access for many potential homeowners. This has led to inflated home prices and keeps housing out of reach for lower-income families.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. Total housing starts fell to a 1.246 million annual rate in October, down about 4.6% from September and 7.8% from a year earlier, and were well below expectations.
  2. Single-family starts rose month-to-month to about 874,000 but remain down roughly 7–7.8% year-over-year and 7.0% year-to-date, while multi-family starts fell in October and year-over-year yet are up about 18% year-to-date, showing a split between housing segments.
  3. Building permits were essentially flat at about a 1.412 million annual rate, slipping slightly month-to-month and year-over-year, and housing units under construction remain elevated, keeping a sizable pipeline of supply.

FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $832,750 in 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The baseline conforming loan limit for most of the U.S. will rise to $832,750 in 2026, increasing by $26,250 from the previous year.
  2. In high-cost areas like Los Angeles, the loan limit will be even higher, reaching $1,249,125 for one-unit properties.
  3. Different areas have different loan limits, and they depend on both location and the number of units in a property.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same over the past year. While there have been slight month-to-month increases, overall rent growth has slowed down.
  2. Different sources report varying trends in rents, with some noting recent decreases while others show modest increases. This suggests that the rental market is a bit mixed right now.
  3. Factors like increased supply of rental units and changing immigration policies are affecting rents. These influences may continue to shape the rental landscape throughout the year.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 3 The Dog that Didn’t Bark - Retirement Homes

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Housing prices in different neighborhoods react differently to economic changes. In Atlanta, for instance, while the economy was severely impacted, the wealthy neighborhoods faced less of a decline compared to lower-income areas.
  2. Retirement communities usually rely less on credit markets, as many buyers pay in cash. This makes them interesting places to study housing trends and market responses to economic events.
  3. Local housing supply issues can drive prices up across all neighborhoods, not just low-income ones. When there's not enough housing built, even retirement homes can see rising costs.
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Follow-Up: Mortgages by Credit Score

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The average down payment for mortgages has stayed about the same since 1996, showing that lending standards haven’t changed as much as some people think.
  2. Home values and lending practices dramatically shifted between 2007 and 2009, leading to a decline in the quality of new mortgages, which affected the overall housing market.
  3. The decline in home values wasn't just a sudden crisis but a long-term issue influenced by lending practices and market perceptions, resulting in many areas experiencing just steady downturns without previous booms.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 10 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Home inventory is increasing a lot, but home sales are not changing much compared to last year. This could push home prices down.
  2. Recent data shows that house prices have gone up overall, but there are signs that they might start to fall soon.
  3. There are big differences in the housing market depending on the region, so what’s happening in one place might not be true for another.

Renters and the mortgage crackdown aftermath

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Renters suffered a lot from stricter mortgage rules after 2008. Many renters ended up paying more due to fewer homes being built.
  2. There is a big difference in rent prices between rental apartments and owned homes. Renters often find they're spending more for less quality compared to homeowners.
  3. To fix these problems, we need either a lot more new rental buildings or easier access to mortgages for families. If not, many will keep struggling in high-priced rental markets.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 09 Jul 25
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. The housing market is seeing more homes available for sale, with active listings up almost 29% compared to last year. This means buyers have more choices right now.
  2. Sales of homes are flat, and prices are under pressure because of the increased inventory. The new homebuilders are also reducing prices to compete.
  3. Even though there are more homes for sale, sales are still low, and the market is gradually moving back to pre-pandemic inventory levels.

California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 18 Nov 25
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. California home sales in October reached their highest level since February, showing a slight increase from both the previous month and last year. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. The median price per square foot for homes in California has decreased by 2.5% compared to last year. This indicates a slight downturn in housing prices, even as sales have picked up.
  3. While new listings have increased by 7% year-over-year, overall inventory remains higher than last year, which suggests that more homes are available for buyers, but market trends may slow down as we enter the holiday season.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. In October, home sales were down slightly by 0.3% compared to last year, even though they had increased by 8% the previous month. This shows that the housing market is facing some slowdowns.
  2. New home listings rose by 5.2% compared to last year, but they are still lower than levels seen in 2019. This suggests there's a cautious approach among sellers in the market.
  3. Active inventory of homes available for sale increased by 17.3% year over year, indicating more options for buyers. However, the growth is slightly lower than the previous month's increase.

October 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Rents are going up because there's not enough housing supply. Even as rents rise, home prices continue to reflect this shortage.
  2. Since the housing crisis in 2008, homes in larger cities have generally become cheaper, while smaller cities have seen their prices increase. The mortgage restrictions ended up making things worse for affordable housing.
  3. The main issue with housing costs isn't about big-city advantages, but rather it's about how difficult it is to build new homes in many areas, leading to a supply problem.

Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to long term rise in rent inflation and decline in housing consumption.
  2. The bubble story contradicts the evidence of high housing costs being a result of economic rents, not productivity.
  3. Robert Shiller's analysis overlooks the importance of considering rent inflation in understanding housing market inefficiencies.

Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2024 in Review (January to June)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to a lack of supply rather than too much demand. Cities are struggling to provide enough homes for their growing populations.
  2. Homeownership continues to decline because of demographic shifts and a severe housing shortage. Many people are forced to share living spaces instead of owning their own homes.
  3. There is a belief that adding more housing will lead to lower prices, but it often results in the opposite effect. More housing can create a sense of instability in the market, making things feel worse for current residents.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 220 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The overview provides a snapshot of the current housing market including sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 9.1% year-over-year in December of 2023.
  3. Seasonally, December and January are weaker months for new listings, but it's expected that new listings may be up year-over-year in 2024.

Life Monopoly, Protein Consumption, Unbundling Upwork

Austin's Analects • 19 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. Owning mortgage-free rental properties for each child is a smart financial strategy for the future.
  2. Traditional advice on protein intake might be outdated, with studies suggesting the body can absorb more protein per meal than previously thought.
  3. The unbundling trend seen with companies like Uber is now happening with platforms like Upwork, leading to more specialized niche service providers.

New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 25 Aug 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. New home sales in July were at a rate of 652,000, showing a small dip from June but still below last year's numbers.
  2. The inventory of new homes for sale is quite high, with a supply of 9.2 months, which is more than what is usually considered normal.
  3. Prices for new homes have dropped by 12% from their peak, partly because of changes in the types of homes being sold.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 205 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index showed a 4.8% year-over-year increase in home prices in October.
  2. There have been consistent month-over-month increases in the Case-Shiller National Index, following previous decreases.
  3. Various reports indicate that house prices are continuing to rise year-over-year in November, reaching new all-time highs.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The serious delinquency rates for single-family loans from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remained stable in June. This means that fewer people are seriously behind on their mortgage payments compared to previous years.
  2. Freddie Mac's multi-family delinquency rates are at their highest since the housing market crash. This indicates some challenges in the multi-family housing sector.
  3. Historical data shows that delinquency rates peaked significantly during the housing bubble and the pandemic, but current rates are lower than those high points.

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Mortgage rates have dropped significantly since early 2020, with many loans under 4%. This makes it tough for homeowners to sell because they would face higher payments on new homes.
  2. More homes with loans over 6% are appearing in the market, indicating changes in mortgage dynamics since the peak of low rates in 2022.
  3. The average mortgage rate, along with borrowers' credit scores and loan-to-value ratios, is crucial in understanding the current mortgage landscape.

Goldman's Mid-Year Housing Outlook

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. High mortgage rates are keeping many homeowners from selling their homes, resulting in low existing home sales. People are reluctant to move because they don't want to lose their lower mortgage rates.
  2. The construction of new single-family homes is also expected to decline due to lower demand and increased competition from existing homes on the market.
  3. Home prices are likely to rise very slowly or remain stable over the next year, with some forecasts suggesting slight declines in prices due to rising inventory.

Why more housing appears to make things worse

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. About 30-40% of people don't believe increasing housing supply will lower prices or rents.
  2. In cities with limited housing supply, population growth can lead to decreased housing availability, impacting affordability.
  3. Cities that don't build enough housing can have negative impacts on low-income residents, forcing displacement and exacerbating housing affordability issues.

Regional Sales Trends

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Regional sales trends in the housing market can provide important insights, even when traditional data sources seem less useful.
  2. Exploring regional data might reveal trends that are missed when looking at national averages.
  3. Understanding local market conditions can help inform better decisions in the real estate sector.

A Brief Technical Review of the Alternative Housing Story

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Cities like Los Angeles face housing supply issues due to low permit approvals compared to cities like Atlanta and Phoenix.
  2. National housing market statistics can be misleading as there are extreme regional differences.
  3. The myth of a credit bubble causing price bubbles is debunked, with evidence showing price spikes before rise in debt in housing markets.

Builder Incentives and Profits

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Builders like Lennar are using cash discounts to sell homes, which can create a misleading price for buyers. Buyers may end up paying more due to high 'menu prices' even if they think they are getting a good deal.
  2. There are risks for mortgaged buyers when home prices fall. They might be stuck with a mortgage amount that is higher than the real value of their home, leading to losses or foreclosure situations.
  3. Unlike in past housing crises, current market conditions have regulators and the Federal Reserve focused on avoiding a housing crash. The situation today is more stable, reducing the chances of a major crisis like in 2008.

100 Years of Rent Control in Sweden

Bet On It • 145 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💾 History Housing Market
  1. Sweden has had rent control regulations since 1917, influencing tenant rights and housing shortages.
  2. Historical data from Sweden shows the impact of rent control on rental apartments and construction trends.
  3. Despite decades of rent control, Sweden still faces housing market issues like shortages and segregation.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 4 Leamer's Counsel

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Housing start numbers are key indicators of upcoming recessions. When fewer homes are being built, it's often a sign that an economic downturn is near.
  2. The Federal Reserve may have waited too long to react to a housing market that was overheating, which ultimately could have led to more severe economic issues later on.
  3. In cities with strict building regulations, rising housing prices are often due to limited supply rather than demand. This creates significant issues like rent inflation and forced migration.

Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 3

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The rise in home prices is mainly due to obstruction of urban housing rather than urban productivity.
  2. High urban rents have increased nationally post-2008 due to federal lending policies lowering housing production everywhere.
  3. Rising rents explain almost all of the increase in home prices, with excess rent accounting for a significant portion of residential real estate value.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 2 Respecting the Timeline

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Home prices in cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas showed clear patterns before and after the 2008 housing crisis. They experienced a boom, then a downturn when lending tightened.
  2. During the crisis, low-tier home prices dropped more than high-tier prices. This happened because many poor families couldn't afford housing and had to move around or suffer from rising rents.
  3. Areas like Miami and Tampa had different dynamics, with more separation in low-tier prices before the crisis. They faced ongoing housing shortages, causing continual price increases even after the market correction.

Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The current monetary policy is not tight enough to be called restrictive. This means people can still borrow money relatively easily.
  2. Tom Lawler has discussed the 'Neutral' rate of interest a lot. Understanding this rate helps us know how the economy might react to changes in interest rates.
  3. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest that the interest rate environment is still being evaluated, which could affect future economic policies.

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Current mortgage rates remain high, especially above 6%, making it hard for homeowners to sell and buy new homes. Most people with lower rates don't want to move because their payments would go up.
  2. More than half of all outstanding loans are now under 4%, showing how many people got favorable rates during the pandemic. This is a big reason why available homes for sale are currently low.
  3. Market sentiment is hesitant, with many potential buyers waiting for mortgage rates to drop into the 5% range before they consider purchasing a home.

House Hacking a $1.3m Duplex in SF

The Leonard Letter • 39 implied HN points • 10 Jul 23
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. House hacking involves living in one unit and renting out the rest.
  2. Consider key expenses like mortgage, insurance, and taxes when analyzing a property deal.
  3. Getting creative with property use may be necessary to make a house hack work in expensive cities like San Francisco.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 148 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The 2-part overview offers insights into the current state of the housing market for mid-February 2024, covering aspects like house prices, sales, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 2.8% year-over-year in January 2024, showing a slight increase from the previous year's record low for January, potentially signaling an increase in overall inventory for the market.
  3. It's important to note that December and January are typically the weakest months for new listings, and while new listings are expected to show year-over-year growth in 2024, March data will provide a clearer picture of their proximity to normal levels.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 3.8% year-over-year in November, indicating rising home prices. This is a good sign for homeowners as it shows property values are generally going up.
  2. House prices rose by 0.3% in November according to the FHFA index, showing a slower growth rate compared to previous years. It suggests that higher mortgage rates might be affecting buyers' demand.
  3. New York had the highest annual home price increase at 7.3%, while Tampa saw a decline of 0.4%. Different regions are experiencing varying trends in home price changes.

Rising existing inventory in Texas and Florida

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Rising home inventory in places like Texas and Florida doesn't always mean a bad market. It can show real demand or a strong market too.
  2. Many people wrongly believe that too many houses lead to market crashes, but actually, drops in demand usually cause these issues.
  3. In past downturns, like in 2008, price drops happened after demand decreased, not because of oversupply. Understanding this helps make sense of current housing trends.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same compared to last year. Recently, there's been a slight downward trend, but rents are still high compared to earlier years.
  2. The number of available rental units is increasing, leading to more options for renters. This rise in supply is helping to keep rents stable and pressures on affordability.
  3. Single-family rent growth is at its lowest in over 14 years. Even though rent increases are slowing, demand for rentals is expected to remain strong due to job and wage growth.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Home sales are down across many markets, with a 4.3% decrease year-over-year in May compared to last year.
  2. New listings are slowly increasing, up by 6.3% compared to last May, but still lag behind the numbers from 2019.
  3. Inventory levels are rising significantly, with a 29% increase year-over-year, indicating a changing market dynamic.