Bet On It

Bet On It, authored by Caplan and Candor, delves into a range of topics including political policies, economic theories, personal growth strategies, and the complex interplay of society and individual choices. It critically examines the effects of ideologies and practices on both macro and micro levels, encouraging a non-conformist and pragmatic approach towards understanding and navigating the challenges of modern life.

Political Policies Economic Theories Personal Development Societal Trends Educational Systems Media and Content Censorship Market Mechanisms Justice Systems Relationship Advice Career Development Libertarian Views Technology and Society

The hottest Substack posts of Bet On It

And their main takeaways

Apply to Cato University 2025

80 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Education Events Economics Deregulation Travel
  1. Cato University 2025 is happening in Washington, DC. If you're interested, apply before June 30.
  2. There will be a road trip to Madison for some family events, and there’s a chance to meet locals along the way.
  3. A fun concert by My Chemical Romance is on August 15 in Philadelphia, and he's excited to connect with fans at the event.

Permit Me One Maudlin Anecdote

538 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Refugees Social Issues Moral Philosophy Family Dynamics
  1. Emotions can give us new perspectives. Sometimes feeling empathy can help us see the struggles of others, especially those in tough situations like refugees.
  2. It's easy to judge others based on how we feel about our own problems. But comparing our struggles to those facing war or displacement can shift our view from self-pity to compassion.
  3. Understanding the refugee experience might make us rethink our responses. Instead of anger or blame, we should respond with sympathy for people fleeing danger.

The Hidden Constraints on HOT Lanes

105 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy Regulation Economics Infrastructure
  1. HOT lanes have strict rules to keep traffic moving, like needing to maintain a minimum speed. If the lanes are too slow, the company operating them can face financial penalties.
  2. The profit for companies managing HOT lanes can be limited because they have to share excess earnings with the government once they reach certain profit levels. This makes them less likely to take risks.
  3. Even though these lanes are better than regular roads, government rules still make them less efficient. There are many ideas for improvements that aren't being tried, like charging tolls during busy times.

Solipsism>>Determinism

196 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
📖 Philosophy Free will Determinism Mind Epistemology
  1. Libertarian free will means you have real choices, unlike determinism which says you can only act one way based on past events.
  2. Your own thoughts and decisions feel real to you, and denying them goes against personal experiences and observations.
  3. Even though solipsism (the idea that only your mind is certain) seems crazy, it makes more sense than determinism, which asks you to ignore your direct experiences.

Visualize Protectionist Luxembourg

241 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
💼 Business International Trade Economics Globalization Consumer behavior
  1. Luxembourg's economy relies heavily on international trade. A big part of what it buys and sells comes from other countries, which is very important for its success.
  2. If Luxembourg raised its tariffs significantly, residents would face high prices and a worse quality of life because they depend on imports for most goods.
  3. Luxembourg serves as a great example showing that trade is not a threat but an opportunity. The country demonstrates the importance of both imports and exports in keeping the economy strong.
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Do Libertarians Barely Care About Liberty?

231 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Libertarianism Migration Freedom Political Ideologies Taxation
  1. Many people say they care about things like relative income and equality, but few actually change their living situations to achieve those goals. Actions can show what we truly care about.
  2. While some libertarians do move to places they believe are more free, most don't leave their comfortable lives. This raises questions about how serious they are about their beliefs.
  3. Libertarians often prioritize job opportunities and family over relocating for more freedom. It's a trade-off between career satisfaction and their desire for liberty.

A Friendly Appeal to the Unconvinced

171 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Government Policy Market Inequality
  1. Governments often fail to effectively address social problems due to mismanagement of economic principles. They usually implement policies that sound good but don’t actually help.
  2. A lot of current government actions may sound good, but they lead to negative outcomes. This shows that just fixing individual issues isn't enough; we need to rethink the overall role of government.
  3. If markets are better at creating positive outcomes than governments, then reducing government power could lead to better solutions for society.

Markets Do the Good Things That Sound Bad

246 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics Markets Policy Management Corporate Governance
  1. Markets often get criticized for being cost-conscious and risk-aware, but these qualities can actually lead to better outcomes for society. It's important to remember that ignoring costs can create bad decisions.
  2. People think businesses focusing on profits are bad, but profit-seeking can sometimes lead to positive results. It's about balancing risks for larger gains rather than taking reckless risks.
  3. Many popular arguments against markets don't see the bigger picture. When looking at overall success and safety, richer countries with fewer regulations often fare better than poorer, heavily regulated ones.

Milton Friedman’s Weird Abolition List

171 implied HN points • 03 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Policy Economic Theory Public Finance Regulation
  1. Milton Friedman suggested abolishing certain government policies he viewed as unnecessary. Some of these policies include price supports for agriculture and minimum wage laws.
  2. He believed that many interventions weren't justified by their outcomes, indicating a need for less government control in various sectors.
  3. Friedman's focus was on promoting free-market principles, but his priorities differed from contemporary issues, revealing changes in the economy and regulation over time.

*Pro-Market and Pro-Business*: The Keith Knight Interview

55 implied HN points • 12 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics Entrepreneurship Marketing Finance Business News
  1. Supporting market growth is important for businesses. It helps create jobs and increases the economy.
  2. Talking openly about ideas can lead to better understanding and discussions. It's good to share different perspectives.
  3. Meetups can help connect people who share similar interests. It's a great way to make new friends and learn from each other.

The Typical Man Disgusts the Typical Woman

2621 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Relationships Social norms Gender Studies Psychology Evolutionary Theory
  1. Men and women often have very different views on attractiveness. Most men rate women highly, but many women rate men much lower.
  2. Rejection isn't just personal; it's often about general trends in attraction. Women may reject many men because they generally find most men less appealing.
  3. Both men and women can improve their dating experiences. Men can work on personal grooming and manners, while women can try to appreciate qualities like charm and humor more.

You're Invited to Capla-Con 2025!

65 implied HN points • 29 May 25
🎭️ Culture Events Gaming Community Socializing Fandom
  1. Capla-Con is a two-day festival for nerds happening on July 12-13 this year. It's a fun event with games, socializing, and plenty of activities for families.
  2. Anyone can join and bring their friends, making it a welcoming space for everyone. There are games like board games and role-playing, and even dinner is provided!
  3. The event organizer writes new role-playing games for the festival, ensuring there's always something fresh and exciting to play. To get updates, it's good to subscribe to the new Capla-Con Substack.

The Average Kid is Better Than the Average Adult

976 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
  1. Kids are typically more energetic and curious than adults. They want to explore and play instead of just relaxing.
  2. Children tend to be more honest and less judgmental. They speak their minds freely and hold fewer grudges than adults do.
  3. Being around kids can bring a fresh perspective and joy. They express love and excitement in ways that often keep adults feeling young and connected.

E(X)>0: An Open Letter to Elon

925 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Public Policy Economics Government Entrepreneurship
  1. It's important to welcome people who can contribute positively, not just those who are obviously exceptional. This means considering everyone who has something to offer, even if they're not the top experts.
  2. Investment and hiring should be seen as opportunities with positive expected value, not just focused on certainty of success. This idea helps to foster growth and innovation in both companies and society.
  3. A good immigration policy should allow more people in, as long as they can contribute positively, like how the UAE has seen success by welcoming a range of skill levels instead of just the elite.

Selfishly Speaking, Who Should Skip College?

488 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
🚌 Education Higher education Career Paths Economic Impact
  1. College might not be worth it for everyone, especially if your grades or test scores are not high. It's important to understand your own abilities before deciding.
  2. Don't let others' opinions about jobs or status dictate your choices. Sometimes a job that's seen as 'low' can actually be a good career for you.
  3. If you work hard and have the right skills, there are many paths to success that don't require a college degree. Focus on what suits you best.

What’s Really Wrong With Anti-Immigrants

322 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Racism Xenophobia Nationalism
  1. A lot of anti-immigration feelings come from xenophobia, which is a fear or dislike of foreigners. Many people seem to think negatively about immigrants without clear reasons.
  2. Another factor in anti-immigrant sentiment is misanthropy, or a general dislike of humanity. Some people view most humans as not worth having around, which colors their views on immigrants.
  3. Racism plays a smaller role than often believed. Many anti-immigrants don’t express clear racial biases, and their opposition is more about a negative view of people in general than about race.

The Rich and the Cheap

392 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tax policy Regulation Wealth Inequality Behavioral Economics Political theory
  1. High taxes or regulations on wealthy people might not work out as planned. Just because the rich can afford it, doesn't mean they will stick around to pay it.
  2. Many wealthy individuals are also frugal. When taxed more, they might choose to earn less or stop certain activities to avoid those costs.
  3. Large companies may appear to afford extra taxes and regulations, but they can choose to cut back on what they do instead. This means the burden of such policies can end up hurting regular folks more than the rich.

Jet Lag: A Fool-Proof Fix

462 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🏝 Travel Travel tips International travel
  1. Don't sleep on the plane. Staying awake helps you adjust to the new time zone more easily.
  2. Stay active when you arrive. Keeping busy until the evening helps you feel more awake and ready for bed.
  3. Eating dinner just before sleeping helps you crash and wake up feeling refreshed and ready to explore.

Maximum Progress on Progressivism

628 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Social Issues Philosophy Media Critique Wokeness
  1. Michael Huemer's book, Progressive Myths, offers a clear look at popular beliefs around social issues. He tackles topics like racism and sexism with an emphasis on understanding facts over ideology.
  2. The book encourages readers to question politically charged information and be more skeptical of what they hear. It stresses the importance of looking for objective truths instead of simply aligning with one side of the debate.
  3. Huemer concludes that understanding the truth about complex issues is crucial for avoiding myths that can arise in society. His approach aims to help readers think critically about controversial topics, helping them navigate media bias.

NIMBYs, NIMBYs, Everywhere...

306 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Public Policy Local government Regulation Political Debate
  1. NIMBYs, or 'Not In My BackYard' people, can greatly influence local construction rules. They often share small complaints that add up and make building new homes really difficult.
  2. Despite a lack of major anti-construction groups, local complaints still weigh heavily on housing availability. Many areas struggle to build new homes, making prices go up for everyone.
  3. Some suggest moving authority over housing regulations to regional or national levels, but there are worries that this could cause more issues or attract stronger NIMBY opposition.

The Obvious-Once-You-Think-About-It Reason Why Education Cuts Fertility

659 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🚌 Education Higher education Social norms Economic Impact
  1. As education levels increase, people tend to have fewer children. This trend is seen in both individuals and countries.
  2. One reason for this is that students often want to finish their education before starting a family, leading to later parenthood.
  3. Education changes what people prioritize in life, making career success more important than having kids early.

Free Sociology

246 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🎭️ Culture Sociology Libertarianism Political theory Academic Research Community Building
  1. Sociology often seems aligned with progressive views, making it seem like sociology and libertarianism are opposites. However, there are ways for them to connect and have important discussions.
  2. Many classical liberal ideas can lead to important research questions in sociology, especially about how free markets can help reduce poverty. This perspective is different from the common focus on the inevitability of poverty in capitalism.
  3. There is a need for a different approach within sociology that appreciates freedoms like free speech and limited government, rather than just focusing on government regulation or anti-capitalist views.

Whose Standards Are Too High?

573 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political theory Democracy Government Regulation Public Policy
  1. Many people have high standards for politicians and democracy, but they should consider that the alternatives might not be better.
  2. The free market is often held to very high standards, but voters and politicians should think about whether government actions can truly improve things.
  3. Instead of pushing for more government intervention, maybe people should appreciate the benefits of a free market and how it has worked historically.

Popuphobia’s Javier Milei Problem

518 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Populism Elections Political theory Political Movements Libertarianism
  1. Populism can be seen in a positive light when it speaks against corrupt elites. It can represent the voice of ordinary people wanting change.
  2. Javier Milei is an example of a populist leader in Argentina who has taken significant steps to challenge the established political system and improve the country's situation.
  3. Some critics dismiss populism entirely as bad, but it's important to recognize that not all populists are the same; some can actually promote good governance.

The Missing Myths

467 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Progressivism Social Issues Gender Studies Racial Issues
  1. The book focuses on simple, straightforward myths that can be easily debated and debunked. This is helpful for understanding complex issues more clearly.
  2. Some myths about gender and racial pay gaps are stressed as often misunderstood. Actual productivity plays a big role in these discussions.
  3. The author believes there are even more myths about discrimination and intelligence that need addressing. Questions of race and IQ are examples where more facts could clarify misunderstandings.

I Don't Find the Election Funny at All, and I Have a Great Sense of Humor

583 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Humor Political Commentary Public Opinion Government Critique
  1. The election is a predictable source of strong emotions and tribalism, which many find overwhelming and not funny at all. It's better to take a step back from the chaos during this time.
  2. Politicians and voters have worsened the state of democracy, with extreme views gaining traction on both sides. This has led to worries about the future of American politics.
  3. Despite the bleak political outlook, focusing on personal improvement and small changes in your life can help cope with the frustrations of the political environment.

Return to the Friend Zone

301 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Relationships Advice Psychology Youth Social Dynamics
  1. When dating, understand how you rank among people you know. This can help you see your chances realistically.
  2. Visualize how someone you find unattractive would approach dating you. This can give you perspective on your situation.
  3. Sometimes, the best choice is to accept not dating someone and move on for your own betterment.

The Romantic Era Never Ended

296 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Art Music Literature Film Philosophy
  1. The Romantic Era of music isn't over; it lives on in modern soundtracks. Many new compositions carry the spirit of famous Romantic composers.
  2. While some may think of soundtracks as simple background music, many actually hold high artistic value, comparable to classical masterpieces.
  3. It's important to appreciate and celebrate modern composers who continue the legacy of the Romantic tradition, rather than just mourn for the past.

*Progressive Myths*: The Caplan-Huemer Interview

196 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social Issues Political theory Public Policy Philosophy Wokeness
  1. The difference between a neutral and objective presentation is important. An objective approach aims to provide a fair and accurate account without taking sides.
  2. Many myths exist around racial pay gaps and other social issues, often attributing them to discrimination rather than productivity differences.
  3. The conversation around wokeness and climate change is complex. Some claims are true, but it's essential to approach these topics with careful analysis.

The Preachers of Death

171 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
📖 Philosophy Existentialism Ethics Metaphysics Poetry Literature
  1. There are people who promote the idea of giving up on life, calling them the 'preachers of death'. They see life as full of suffering and try to convince others to feel the same way.
  2. Some of these preachers believe that by avoiding life's pleasures, like having children or enjoying existence, they are being virtuous. This attitude can end up making life feel even heavier for everyone around them.
  3. It’s important to recognize when you're feeling tired of life and not let those who preach despair influence you. Life can be tough, but it's valuable and worth embracing.

Nietzsche the Natalist

186 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
📖 Philosophy Existentialism Ethics Metaphysics Aesthetics Political Philosophy
  1. Many people with high fertility rates in the U.S. tend to be very religious. This shows a strong connection between faith and the desire to have children.
  2. Nietzsche criticized those who focus only on the negative aspects of life, encouraging a more positive view on existence. He argued that life has value despite its struggles.
  3. Even though Nietzsche didn't have children, his ideas on life's worth contrast with those who do find joy and fulfillment in raising families, like Catherine Pakaluk who has eight kids.

Ending the Welfare State is Not the End of the World

332 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Welfare state Libertarianism Social justice Immigration Policy
  1. The welfare state often focuses more on helping relatively poor people at home rather than the absolutely poor people abroad. This shows a disconnect in truly helping those in need worldwide.
  2. There are different views on whether to prioritize helping the domestic poor or the global poor. It's possible for decent people to disagree on these priorities without labeling each other as hypocrites.
  3. Ending the welfare state wouldn't be catastrophic. In fact, there's an argument for letting people solve their own poverty through work opportunities, rather than relying solely on welfare.

Desired Fertility versus the Mueller Effect

327 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demography Public Policy Social Issues Government spending
  1. Many women want to have more children than they currently do. Policymakers should focus on helping them achieve their desired family size instead of just worrying about low birth rates.
  2. People often say they want more government spending until they realize it means higher taxes. The same might apply to how people think about having kids; mentioning costs could change their responses about how many kids they want.
  3. It's possible that people are having fewer kids not just because they want to, but because they misunderstand things like genetics and the costs of raising children. Adjusting tax policies might encourage families to have more children.

Some Austrian Answers

306 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Theory Libertarianism Philosophy Behavioral Economics
  1. The author's views on Austrian economics have not changed much over the years, but they've become more open to certain ideas, particularly regarding human behavior in economics.
  2. They believe that Austrian economists should focus more on using empirical psychology and less on philosophical debates to better understand economic behaviors.
  3. The author finds that reading Austrian economists has inspired new libertarian policy ideas and encourages others to do the same for creative thinking.

Open Borders and Adverse Selection?

231 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Public Policy Economics Debate Social Issues
  1. Opening borders can lead to both positive and negative selection. While allowing more people in can benefit society, it can also attract individuals who might not contribute positively.
  2. It's important to vet immigrants to avoid potential negative impacts, like crime or community issues. Simply accepting everyone without checks can create problems in the long run.
  3. Using examples like the influx of Ukrainian refugees shows that context matters. Not all immigration situations are the same, and having clear reasons for migration can soften concerns about negative selection.

*Tell Us a Childhood Story*, Part 1

120 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
📚 Literature Memoir Childhood Storytelling Writing Publishing
  1. Memories from childhood can be really fun to share, especially the funny or mischievous stories from when we were kids. It's great to connect with our own kids by telling them about our past adventures.
  2. Writing about my childhood was a breeze because I have so many vivid memories. It felt exciting to dive into those stories and create something new like a book.
  3. I'm open to exploring new opportunities in writing, even if it's a challenge. I believe that persistence pays off, and I'm excited about the possibility of sharing my childhood stories with a wider audience.

Some Austrian Questions

251 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Libertarianism Economic Theory Political Philosophy Public Policy
  1. Many people start with a simple understanding of economic theories, often identifying with one school without fully knowing its details. It takes time and deeper study to really understand the nuances between different economic thinkers.
  2. As people grow and learn, they often reassess their beliefs about economics and may find they resonate more with certain schools over others. It's okay to change your mind as you gain more knowledge.
  3. A strong pull toward empirical data and analysis can lead someone to align with mainstream economics rather than strictly adhering to one specific school of thought, like the Austrian School.

Khomeini on Brain Drain

261 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Immigration Policy Political theory Human Rights Regional conflicts
  1. Khomeini expressed indifference towards the brain drain from Iran, suggesting those who left were not valuable to the country. He believed that if people felt the need to leave, they should just go.
  2. He argued that the fleeing intellectuals would not contribute positively to Iran, indicating a preference for different thinkers. Khomeini felt that the country should not mourn those who left.
  3. He highlighted the struggles of Iranians wanting to emigrate due to restrictions, imagining how different Iran's population would be if those people had been welcomed elsewhere.

*Open Borders* Back in Print!

140 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Policy Libertarianism Demographics Political trends
  1. The book 'Open Borders' is back in print and is considered the author's best work. It's aimed at showing the benefits of immigration.
  2. Despite fears about immigration policies worsening during crises, the author notes that immigration has generally returned to normal levels post-Covid.
  3. The author believes that immigration restrictions are harmful and that there's still hope for better immigration policies in the future, even amidst political challenges.