The hottest Housing Market Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Bear market or bull market? For Bitcoin it can be hard to tell.

Ecoinometrics • 275 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. It's difficult to determine if Bitcoin or Ethereum are in a bear or bull market by just looking at monthly returns.
  2. Countries with high inflation rates might benefit from transitioning to crypto-based monetary systems.
  3. There are signs indicating a potential crash in the US housing market due to factors like artificially inflated prices and high mortgage rates.

How Many Homes Do We Need?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 358 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. There is a huge underestimation of the housing shortage in the U.S. Many professionals are saying we need less housing than we actually do.
  2. Current data shows there are about 15 million vacant homes, but many more are needed due to population growth. Estimates suggest a shortage of at least 15 to 20 million units.
  3. Building more homes can help lower rents and make housing more affordable, but there's a risk that new constructions may only be rented out at higher prices, especially if ownership becomes less accessible.

Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Housing inventory plunged during the pandemic and, although it rose through 2025, it still sits below pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Past shifts in inventory have been useful signals for housing market turning points—big increases helped mark the 2006 top and big drops helped mark the 2012 bottom.
  3. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted so year‑over‑year changes are the best way to read it; for example, the NAR reported a 7.5% YoY inventory increase in November 2025, while months‑of‑supply uses seasonally adjusted sales.

Limbo

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 39 implied HN points • 06 Nov 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Volatility is common in later stages of a market. Expect wild changes in market prices as things shift.
  2. Job cuts are increasing, showing a potential economic downturn. Many big companies are laying off workers due to various pressures.
  3. The housing market is cooling off with more sellers than buyers. This imbalance suggests that home prices may start to fall soon.
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More funny charts

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Home inventory and homes for sale have shown confusing trends recently. While they usually move together, they've started to go in opposite directions, raising questions about the current housing market.
  2. Low interest rates don't always mean more homeownership. In fact, homeownership actually decreased during a period of very low rates, suggesting that other factors are more important.
  3. The idea that job opportunities are the only reason for high home prices in certain cities isn't entirely true. In fact, as some cities shrink, home prices in other areas can actually rise, showing a more complex relationship.

Top Links 544 The US housing market is stuck. The "dim Sum death cross". How young women are overtaking men & brands are triggering cognitive dissonance.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Market
  1. The US housing market is currently not moving, which means buying or selling homes is very slow right now.
  2. Young women are becoming more successful than men in many areas, changing the usual dynamics in society.
  3. Brands are creating confusion for people, leading them to think differently about their products and values.

Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 28 Nov 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The serious delinquency rates for single-family homes by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been mostly stable lately. Both rates are below pre-pandemic levels but have increased slightly from last year.
  2. Fannie Mae's multi-family delinquency rate has reached its highest point since the last housing crash, signaling potential struggles in that sector.
  3. Mortgages that are overdue by three months or more are counted as delinquent, and loans from before the financial crisis still show some ongoing issues.

Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 337 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Market
  1. High housing prices in cities don't mean they're great places to live. Instead, these prices often come from not having enough houses.
  2. Cities like Los Angeles are expensive mainly due to people wanting to stay near their families and jobs, even when it gets hard to afford living there.
  3. If cities allowed more housing to be built, they could become more affordable, meaning people wouldn't have to feel forced to leave their homes.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Active listings have risen sharply year-over-year, giving buyers more options as inventory nears pre‑pandemic levels even though it remains below 2017–19 norms.
  2. Existing‑home sales are depressed and tracking last year’s lows, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though most owners have enough equity and low rates to prevent a big wave of distressed sales.
  3. New homebuilders are struggling with a growing number of completed and under‑construction unsold homes and are cutting prices to compete, and some key data like housing starts and new home sales are currently unavailable.

Housing Market Preview 2024

The Sunday Morning Post • 117 implied HN points • 07 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The housing market has a significant impact on the U.S. economy, representing 15-18% of GDP.
  2. High interest rates and low inventory in 2023 caused fewer transactions and high home prices.
  3. Predictions for 2024 include falling interest rates leading to more supply, potential modest price declines, and buyers becoming more rational.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 01 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Real house prices, after adjusting for inflation, are currently about 3% lower than their peak in 2022. This shows that while house prices have gone up nominally, they aren't as high when you consider inflation.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is significantly lower than its peak in 2022, indicating that renting may be more affordable compared to buying in some areas right now.
  3. National house prices are still higher than they were during the housing bubble, but the recent downward trend suggests it may take time for prices to recover fully or hit new highs.

Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. Residential investment is likely to be down year‑over‑year in 2026.
  2. Total housing starts are expected to fall slightly as multi‑family starts decline while single‑family starts remain mostly unchanged.
  3. New home sales are likely to be largely unchanged year‑over‑year, though forecasts are uncertain because three months of data are missing and units under construction remain above pre‑pandemic levels.

Revisiting One Last Funny Chart

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Low interest rates are often thought to cause high housing prices, but the actual situation is more complicated and involves other factors.
  2. Migration from places like Los Angeles to Phoenix affected housing demand, suggesting that it wasn't just low rates driving the price spikes.
  3. There's debate about how much the increase in debt and risky borrowing contributed to the housing market issues, complicating the traditional narratives about housing crises.

December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 08 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Falling mortgage rates triggered a surge in refinances, lifting servicer refinance retention to a 3.5‑year high and making rate‑and‑term refinances the dominant activity; non‑bank servicers retained far more borrowers than banks.
  2. Mortgage performance strengthened as national delinquencies fell to about 3.34%, well below pre‑pandemic levels, although FHA loans remain an outlier with higher non‑current rates.
  3. Home prices firmed modestly with the ICE Home Price Index up 0.8% year‑over‑year in November, but gains are uneven — the Northeast and Midwest lead, the South and West lag, and single‑family homes are outperforming condos.

Rental Market Preview 2024

The Sunday Morning Post • 98 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. Rents have been increasing but are expected to flatten and possibly decline in 2024 due to a surge in new rental units hitting the market.
  2. Vacancy rates are starting to increase, indicating an evolving rental market tied to new inventory.
  3. Investors should be cautious as margins are expected to get tighter with declining rents, a tough borrowing environment, and tighter lending standards.

RealPage, Collusion, and Rents: Part 4

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 231 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Market
  1. The software used by landlords to set rents has been blamed for rising rental costs. However, it's only responsible for a small fraction of the rent increases compared to other factors like low housing supply.
  2. Many cities are reacting to rising rents by trying to legislate against the software, even though it has a low market share in the most expensive areas. This means other bigger issues are being ignored.
  3. People need to reassess their economic beliefs and focus on more significant causes of high rents, rather than getting fixated on algorithms and large corporations, which may not be the main problem.

Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. A national report showed very small year‑over‑year gains in median existing home prices, with the Northeast barely rising, which contradicts state realtor and MLS data.
  2. This pattern mirrors a prior instance when preliminary estimates were later revised much higher, so a substantial upward revision—especially for the Northeast—seems likely in a future release.
  3. The discrepancy implies preliminary regional median price estimates can be unreliable, so local MLS/state data or later revised reports are safer for assessing true price trends.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Existing-home sales rose 0.5% in November to a 4.13 million SAAR but are about 1.0% lower than a year ago and have roughly hovered around a 4 million annual pace for the past three years.
  2. Inventory fell seasonally to 1.43 million and months-of-supply dropped to 4.2 months, yet inventory is up 7.5% year-over-year and is higher on a months-of-supply basis than before the pandemic.
  3. Median existing-home prices increased modestly, up 1.2% year-over-year to $409,200, indicating slight price gains despite flat sales and mixed supply signals.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. California sales reached their highest pace since September 2022, up about 2.6% year‑over‑year on a seasonally adjusted basis, but statewide sales still sit below the 300,000‑unit benchmark and the median price fell month‑to‑month while remaining roughly flat year‑over‑year.
  2. In the local markets sampled, closed sales were down about 7.1% year‑over‑year on a not‑seasonally‑adjusted basis, and early data suggest national November existing‑home sales may be unchanged or down slightly year‑over‑year.
  3. Supply is building unevenly: active inventory was up roughly 9.8% year‑over‑year while new listings fell about 4.6%, with wide regional differences and a slowing pace of inventory growth (California’s unsold inventory index near 3.6 months).

More ResiDay 2025

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Amherst's Sean Dobson believes that many good credit risks are being denied mortgages due to strict lending rules set after the 2008 crisis. He wants to see these rules loosened so that his renting customers can become homeowners.
  2. Parkland Communities is focusing on building modern, attached homes like townhomes, which can offer a good living experience while minimizing land costs and navigating zoning challenges. They aim to provide more affordable housing options in urban areas.
  3. The growth of single-family rentals is rising again, with many investors showing interest in this market. However, builders are facing challenges in meeting demand due to past economic and regulatory pressures.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Home sales in the sampled local markets cooled in November, down about 5.7% year‑over‑year and still well below November 2019 levels; seasonally adjusted national sales look to be flat or slightly down.
  2. New listings fell about 6.1% year‑over‑year in November after rising the prior month, and remain roughly 16% below October 2019 activity.
  3. Active inventory was up about 9.8% year‑over‑year, but the change is uneven across regions — much higher in places like Denver and Phoenix and lower in areas such as Grand Rapids and San Diego.

Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Different models produce very different estimates of the neutral interest rate (R*), so there is a wide range of possible values.
  2. No single model clearly stands out as the most accurate, which means model-based estimates are inherently uncertain.
  3. That uncertainty creates a dilemma for policymakers and analysts, who should treat model outputs cautiously and consider multiple estimates and the range of outcomes.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. U.S. house prices are only rising modestly: Case‑Shiller’s national index is up about 1.4% year‑over‑year and the FHFA index is up about 1.7%, with small monthly gains after prior declines.
  2. There is strong regional divergence: Midwestern and Northeastern metros (e.g., Chicago +5.8%, New York +5.0%) are leading, while many Sun Belt markets (e.g., Tampa −4.2%, Phoenix −1.5%, Dallas −1.5%, Miami −1.1%) are down.
  3. High mortgage rates are hurting affordability and price momentum—16 of 20 major cities fell month‑to‑month—so national home price gains lag consumer inflation and imply slight declines in real (inflation‑adjusted) home values.

Asking Rents Soft Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Asking rents have been decreasing recently, with some areas seeing a drop of 1.1% over the past year. This trend shows that the rental market is facing challenges.
  2. Vacancy rates for multifamily homes are high, sitting at a record 7.2%. This means there are more empty rental units than before, which can put more downward pressure on rents.
  3. While single-family rent prices are still higher overall, their growth rate is slowing down. This could be beneficial for renters who are struggling to keep up with rising costs.

Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. National house prices were mostly flat in 2025 with small year‑over‑year gains around 1–2%, so the outlook for 2026 is uncertain.
  2. Short‑term indicators (Case‑Shiller, Freddie Mac, NAR median) show only slight month‑to‑month gains and suggest year‑over‑year changes will likely stay in that small range or edge down in the near term.
  3. Supply and demand are the key drivers and there are big regional differences — areas with high inventory and rising months‑of‑supply could see local price declines even if the national average remains flat.

Case-Shiller and Filtering

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices, historically suggested a housing bubble. However, it may actually reflect a housing shortage rather than a bubble bursting.
  2. When adjusting home prices for inflation using rent instead of general CPI, the index shows that home prices are still significantly elevated due to high rents driving prices up.
  3. Today's housing market struggles with a lack of new homes, leading to increased prices for existing homes. This lack of building capacity has made it harder for younger generations to have the same homeownership opportunities as their grandparents.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 06 Nov 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. In October, home sales were down 2.8% compared to last year, which shows a decrease from the previous month's 7.4% increase.
  2. New listings of homes increased by 3.4% year-over-year but are still lower than the activity seen in October 2019.
  3. The number of active homes available for sale rose significantly, with inventory up 21.4% from last year, but it varies by region.

21 Century Housing Summary, Missouri Edition

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Housing prices in Missouri increased from the late 1990s to mid-2000s, but not necessarily because of a bubble. Instead, they align more with normal price patterns over a long period.
  2. There was a lending boom that raised home prices, mostly due to easier access to credit. However, this did not lead to a big increase in homeownership in Missouri.
  3. After the market crash post-2008, home construction dropped significantly, causing a supply shortage which has kept rents and housing prices high, particularly in lower-tier markets.

Updating my priors on missing middle

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 379 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. Missing middle housing developments can be more impactful in addressing housing affordability issues than previously thought.
  2. Simply advocating for 'build more' without considering the complexity and various factors at play may not fully address housing supply constraints.
  3. Increasing the construction of 'missing middle' housing units significantly could play a crucial role in normalizing the American housing market and addressing housing shortages.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Housing inventory has risen sharply toward pre-pandemic levels while existing-home sales remain depressed, which is putting downward pressure on prices.
  2. Lower mortgage rates have boosted purchase mortgage applications, but rising unemployment (around 4.6%) and weak sales mean those applications haven't yet translated into substantially more closings.
  3. Price indexes show only modest year-over-year gains (about 1–2%), with appreciation steadily slowing and reported data lagging earlier market moves.

Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 129 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. There won't be a big drop in home prices because most people aren't selling under distress like before. Homeowners are in a better position now with more equity and low-rate mortgages.
  2. Mortgage debt is increasing, but not alarmingly. The current lending standards are stricter than during past bubbles, so it's less risky.
  3. Many new mortgages are going to borrowers with strong credit scores. This means that lending practices are healthy and borrowers are more qualified.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 12 Nov 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. There are more homes available for sale now compared to last year, but the growth in inventory is slowing down. This means homebuyers have more choices but the supply isn't increasing as quickly as before.
  2. Despite more listings, sales of existing homes are down compared to previous years, and home prices are under pressure. This suggests buyers might find some great deals, but sellers could face challenges.
  3. New homebuilders are struggling but not in a crisis like before. They have unsold homes and are lowering prices, trying to compete with the growing number of existing homes on the market.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Home sales in early-reporting markets fell sharply year‑over‑year (around 10.8%), though seasonally adjusted national figures may show only a small decline or be roughly flat because of seasonal factors and one fewer working day.
  2. New listings were down year‑over‑year (about 3.5%) and remain well below pre‑pandemic activity, roughly 21% lower than October 2019.
  3. Active inventory rose about 19.4% year‑over‑year, but there are large regional differences — some markets like Denver are up sharply while others like San Diego are down.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.35 million SAAR in December; Lowest Annual Sales since 1995

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. Existing-home sales rose in December to a 4.35 million SAAR, up 5.1% from November and about 1.4% from a year earlier. Despite the monthly gain, annual sales remain at their lowest level since 1995.
  2. Housing inventory fell sharply in December to 1.18 million units and months-of-supply dropped to 3.3 months, reflecting seasonal lows. Yet inventory was up 3.5% year‑over‑year and, on a months‑of‑supply basis, is higher than before the pandemic because sales have fallen even more.
  3. Median existing-home prices increased only modestly, rising 0.4% year‑over‑year to $405,400, indicating slight price growth.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 26 Aug 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The national house price index has increased by 1.9% over the past year as of June. This is a sign of slow growth compared to previous months.
  2. Some cities like San Francisco and Phoenix have seen a decline in house prices from their recent peaks. This indicates a shift in the housing market dynamics.
  3. Despite a general increase in house prices year-over-year, the data shows significant volatility. Some areas are performing much better than others, with traditional markets gaining ground.