The hottest Housing Market Substack posts right now

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Why is Debt-to-Income high?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mortgages Debt Housing Market
  1. The debt-to-income (DTI) ratio for households has generally declined since 2007, focusing more on new mortgage borrowers than all families.
  2. Debt payments have increased for older families since lending standards tightened in 2008, delaying when families take on mortgage debt.
  3. Higher rent inflation due to a lack of construction has pushed up mortgage costs in the early years, contributing to high DTIs.

San Francisco and Miami. Hot or not?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate Economics Housing Market Urban Development
  1. The Case-Shiller home price index shows Miami hitting new highs while San Francisco has been declining.
  2. Both San Francisco and Miami have low housing production, with Miami consistently slightly higher in construction than San Francisco.
  3. San Francisco's construction activity seems to be waning, despite expectations for increased housing due to YIMBY wins and new state laws.

October Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 105 implied HN points • 17 Nov 23
💼 Business Real Estate Construction Economy Data Analysis Housing Market
  1. Housing starts increased to 1.372 million annual rate in October.
  2. Single-family starts bounced back, while multi-family housing faced weakness in late 2022 and early 2023.
  3. Total housing starts in October were above expectations, with year-to-date starts down compared to last year.

Mortgage affordability and excess rents

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Affordability Home Prices Market Analysis
  1. Mortgage affordability is affected by prevailing mortgage rates, which can impact transaction volume and buyer costs.
  2. The measure of mortgage affordability must be used with caution as inflation and buyer behavior play significant roles in housing market dynamics.
  3. The rental value of structures versus inflated land value over time can affect the dynamics of home prices and construction, highlighting the complexity of the housing market.
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Note on Monetary Policy and Jackson Hole

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Housing Market Economic Analysis
  1. Powell's approach to monetary policy is based on conventional models, which may not fully address current economic issues.
  2. There is a concern that inflation is settling above the 2% target due to trends in goods and services.
  3. Housing supply issues contribute to 'inflation' and can be misleading when analyzing monetary policy impacts.

January 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Supply and Demand Inflation
  1. Rising rents are causing rising home prices in the US housing market, with a greater than 1:1 pace.
  2. Density of housing is crucial in impacting housing prices, especially in cities like New York City, where dense neighborhoods are affected by supply shortages and migration trends.
  3. The impact of COVID-19 on housing trends varies across cities, with some areas experiencing temporary relief in housing costs for dense neighborhoods while other cities like New York face complexities in supply conditions.

Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in January; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Indicators
  1. Single-family housing starts were up 22% year-over-year in January, while multi-family starts experienced a significant decrease.
  2. There was an overall decrease in total housing starts in January, although November and December numbers were revised up.
  3. Permits held up better than starts in January, with likely impacts from severe weather last month.

Life Monopoly, Protein Consumption, Unbundling Upwork

Austin's Analects • 19 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💼 Business Personal Finance Housing Market Marketplaces Freelancing
  1. Owning mortgage-free rental properties for each child is a smart financial strategy for the future.
  2. Traditional advice on protein intake might be outdated, with studies suggesting the body can absorb more protein per meal than previously thought.
  3. The unbundling trend seen with companies like Uber is now happening with platforms like Upwork, leading to more specialized niche service providers.

March 2024 Fed Meeting Preview

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Economic Growth Inflation Housing Market
  1. Consider using NGDP growth to communicate monetary policy instead of targeting inflation with short term interest rates.
  2. The yield curve's dynamics indicate recessionary signals and potential rate cuts by the Fed.
  3. Economic growth predictions for 2024 suggest low inflation, steady GDP growth, and a possible decrease in target rates by the Fed.

Scholarship on the Mortgage Moral Panic

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
💰 Finance Housing Market Regulations Mortgages Homeownership
  1. Regulatory changes post-Great Recession have made small dollar loans less available, leading to high denial rates
  2. Mortgage standards can create barriers, pushing buyers towards riskier agreements and impacting property prices
  3. Competition from all-cash buyers is high for small dollar homes, affecting mortgage approval rates and market dynamics

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Market Mortgage Rates
  1. The closed sales in February were mostly for contracts signed when mortgage rates were lower than in the previous months. This signifies a trend of lower mortgage rates impacting sales.
  2. Active inventory in February showed mixed trends with some areas experiencing significant year-over-year increases in inventory while others saw decreases compared to 2019.
  3. New listings in February were up year-over-year, but still remained at historically low levels. Most areas reported lower new listings compared to January 2019.

Scattered Thoughts on Employment and Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💼 Business Employment Construction Labor Market Economic Trends Housing Market
  1. Positive labor market reports with sustainable wage growth and projected real growth
  2. Residential construction employment is growing, productivity concerns, and insights on housing market functionality
  3. Analysis of employment flows provides insights into economic trends and potential indicators for labor market breakdown

The consumption basket we call "housing"

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
💼 Business Housing Market Urban Development Housing supply
  1. In expensive cities, people oppose public amenities because they can lead to displacement when bundled with scarce housing.
  2. A city's housing demand can be categorized into shelter, neighborhood amenities, metropolitan area scarcity, and endowments.
  3. Metro area scarcity causes prices to rise uniformly across neighborhoods, impacting affordability for households with lower incomes.

YIMBies Overpromise

Wooly's Post Repository • 19 implied HN points • 23 Jul 23
💼 Business Real Estate Data Analysis Housing Market Urban Development Economics
  1. The data on housing prices and construction can be confusing and counterintuitive, leading to difficulties in drawing clear conclusions.
  2. YIMBY goals require a significant amount of construction to impact housing prices, but achieving such high construction rates can be challenging.
  3. Confidence in real estate research should be lowered due to the complexity and potential errors in the data, making it important to approach conclusions with caution.

America's Missing Empty Homes

Apricitas Economics • 32 implied HN points • 18 Sep 23
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Housing vacancy rates in the US are at historic lows, indicating a very tight market with rising prices.
  2. Housing vacancy rates don't just consider empty units, but also look at what's available for rent or purchase.
  3. The shortage of housing in the US requires substantial new construction to meet the demand and balance the market.

Introduction: The Housing Crisis, What We Do and Do Not Know.

The Origins of the Housing Crisis • 79 implied HN points • 07 Jul 21
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Crisis Housing Market Policy Impact Historical Analysis Financial system
  1. The average house price being higher over time may not necessarily indicate a crisis as other factors like larger houses or increased income availability can contribute to it.
  2. The complaint in the housing crisis is not just about higher prices overall, but about lack of affordability for every property, especially compared to historical norms and international standards.
  3. Britain's housing crisis has deep roots dating back to the 1960s due to a mix of demand subsidies and supply limits, leading to market volatility and historical financial crises like in 1974-75 and 2008-2009.

Housing Can’t Be Affordable and an Investment

Good Reason • 3 HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Investment Wealth Inflation Income
  1. US housing has become extremely expensive, with a median single family home selling for over $400K and prices rising more than 7% annually since 2012.
  2. If housing prices continue to rise at 7% annually, they'll nearly double in 10 years and nearly quadruple in 20 years, making homes unaffordable for many.
  3. Treating housing as an investment has consequences, creating an underclass unable to afford homes and pushing more people into debt, cramped living situations, and even homelessness.

Hot take monthly: tech layoff apocalypse, millennials ruin everything, and AI killed the rock star coder

startups and econ (Fais Khan) • 7 implied HN points • 08 May 23
🕹 Technology Startups Tech Trends AI Housing Market Software Engineering
  1. Big Tech companies have gone through significant layoffs, but their headcounts remain substantial due to unique hiring practices.
  2. Millennials are facing challenges in the housing market with high rent rates and a potential oversupply of rental properties.
  3. AI advancements are changing the coding landscape, but the role of human coders remains crucial for complex architectural decisions.

Unlock a Housing Boom through Depreciation Bonuses

Arpitrage • 2 HN points • 13 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate Investment Economic Impact Housing Market
  1. Investment taxes play a crucial role in addressing the housing crisis by impacting housing affordability.
  2. Tax laws in the 1980s, especially changes in depreciation schedules, significantly influenced commercial real estate production.
  3. Adjusting accounting rules, like shortening depreciation schedules or allowing full expensing, could encourage a construction boom and potentially reduce rents.

Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 2 HN points • 20 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends
  1. The number of single-family units built for rent almost doubled from 2020 to 2023, showing a significant increase in this housing trend.
  2. About 18% of the built-for-rent units started in 2023 were single-family units, highlighting a shift in the housing market.
  3. While single-family completions built for sale saw a decrease, completed units built for rent were up 21% year-over-year, potentially affecting rental market supply and rent prices.

Ticking Time Bombs and the Climate-Housing Crisis

The Snap Forward • 0 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Crisis Housing Market Natural Disasters Insurance Issues Real Estate
  1. Climate change is making real estate more risky, especially in places affected by disasters like fires. This increases pressure on housing markets, leading to shortages and higher prices.
  2. People are willing to pay more to live in safer areas that don't face climate threats. This trend shows that safety is becoming a priority for many home buyers.
  3. The combination of a housing crunch and climate impacts is creating a situation where more people are looking for secure places to live. This demand is expected to grow, making safe properties harder to find.