The hottest Housing Market Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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ICE Mortgage Monitor: Refinance Activity Increased Especially for Rate/Term Refinances

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Refinance activity surged in September and October, with over 300,000 borrowers taking advantage of lower interest rates. This was the highest refinance volume in 2.5 years.
  2. Mortgage delinquencies decreased slightly in October, dropping below pre-pandemic levels. However, serious delinquencies are still slowly rising year over year.
  3. Home prices saw a small increase in October, with growth edging up to 3.0%. But there are signs that this rate might soften again soon due to rising interest rates and potential demand pullbacks.

Scholarship on the Mortgage Moral Panic

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Regulatory changes post-Great Recession have made small dollar loans less available, leading to high denial rates
  2. Mortgage standards can create barriers, pushing buyers towards riskier agreements and impacting property prices
  3. Competition from all-cash buyers is high for small dollar homes, affecting mortgage approval rates and market dynamics

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same when compared to last year, with a slight overall decrease of about 0.6%. This means rental prices are not rising much.
  2. The rental market is seeing more available apartments due to a lot of new construction, which keeps prices low. The vacancy rate is the highest it's been since the pandemic began.
  3. Single-family home rents have increased by about 2% year-over-year but are still below pre-pandemic growth levels. Many areas are seeing slower rent growth, which is good news for renters.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.4% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that while prices have gone up, they haven't reached their highest point when you factor in inflation.
  2. In nominal terms, house prices are at all-time highs, but the real value shows a different picture. This is important because it reflects the actual purchasing power of money over time.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is 8.1% below its peak in 2022, suggesting that buying homes might be getting less attractive compared to renting in the current market.
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Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising?

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Mortgage rates are influenced by the 10-Year Treasury Yield, which reacts to the economy's growth and inflation expectations. Even though the Fed cut interest rates, mortgage rates have actually gone up because of the rising Treasury Yield.
  2. Currently, the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage rate is at 7.26%, the highest since July, showing a steady rise despite expectations for a decrease. This rise has persisted for four consecutive weeks.
  3. High mortgage rates and low affordability are causing home sales to decline significantly, with September recording the lowest closed sales of existing homes since 2012. Mortgage applications also dropped sharply, indicating a cooling housing market.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Home sales in California jumped by 19.5% compared to last year, signaling a strong recovery even though overall sales remain below pre-COVID levels.
  2. The number of active home listings grew significantly, with inventory up over 20% year-over-year, which may affect house prices in the coming months.
  3. New listings have also increased slightly, but are still at historically low levels, suggesting that supply remains tight in several markets.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. In November, home sales increased by 5.8% compared to last year, showing a positive trend in the housing market. This is the second year in a row that sales have gone up after a long period of decline.
  2. Active inventory of homes for sale rose by 26% year-over-year, which is good for buyers, but there are still sharp differences based on the region. Areas like Florida and Texas saw significant increases in available homes.
  3. Mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in two years, averaging between 6.18% and 6.43% in September and October. However, recent increases in rates, now close to 7%, might slow down future sales.

The consumption basket we call "housing"

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. In expensive cities, people oppose public amenities because they can lead to displacement when bundled with scarce housing.
  2. A city's housing demand can be categorized into shelter, neighborhood amenities, metropolitan area scarcity, and endowments.
  3. Metro area scarcity causes prices to rise uniformly across neighborhoods, impacting affordability for households with lower incomes.

Introduction: The Housing Crisis, What We Do and Do Not Know.

The Origins of the Housing Crisis • 79 implied HN points • 07 Jul 21
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Market
  1. The average house price being higher over time may not necessarily indicate a crisis as other factors like larger houses or increased income availability can contribute to it.
  2. The complaint in the housing crisis is not just about higher prices overall, but about lack of affordability for every property, especially compared to historical norms and international standards.
  3. Britain's housing crisis has deep roots dating back to the 1960s due to a mix of demand subsidies and supply limits, leading to market volatility and historical financial crises like in 1974-75 and 2008-2009.

March 2024 Fed Meeting Preview

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Consider using NGDP growth to communicate monetary policy instead of targeting inflation with short term interest rates.
  2. The yield curve's dynamics indicate recessionary signals and potential rate cuts by the Fed.
  3. Economic growth predictions for 2024 suggest low inflation, steady GDP growth, and a possible decrease in target rates by the Fed.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased slightly in December, indicating more homeowners are struggling to keep up with mortgage payments.
  2. Fannie Mae's delinquency rate rose to 0.56% while Freddie Mac's went up to 0.59%, both of which are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Older loans from before 2009 show higher serious delinquency, whereas more recent loans are performing better, but there are still some lingering issues from past housing bubble years.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Local housing markets saw their first year-over-year sales increase since August 2021. This is a positive sign for the real estate industry.
  2. The data includes comparisons to October 2019, showing how current markets stack up against pre-pandemic times.
  3. Over 40 local housing markets across the US are being tracked for this analysis. This gives a broad view of housing trends in different regions.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. House prices, when adjusted for inflation, are currently about 1.5% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that even though prices seem high, they aren't as high as they were last year when considering the money's value.
  2. Real estate prices have been increasing steadily over time, and currently, they are 11% above the prices during the housing bubble of 2006. People should keep an eye on these real prices to better understand the market.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is still down around 8% from its highest point in 2022. This suggests that renting is somewhat more affordable compared to buying, which is an important factor for homebuyers to consider.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. The closed sales in February were mostly for contracts signed when mortgage rates were lower than in the previous months. This signifies a trend of lower mortgage rates impacting sales.
  2. Active inventory in February showed mixed trends with some areas experiencing significant year-over-year increases in inventory while others saw decreases compared to 2019.
  3. New listings in February were up year-over-year, but still remained at historically low levels. Most areas reported lower new listings compared to January 2019.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. The national house price index increased by 3.9% from last year, showing steady growth in home values.
  2. Most cities saw home prices rise month-to-month, but some places like Los Angeles and Miami experienced declines.
  3. While year-over-year growth is still positive, the pace of increase is slowing down, indicating that the housing market might be stabilizing.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. In June, existing home sales were around 3.92 million, which is slightly lower than May and last June. This shows a small decrease in the housing market activity.
  2. The average price of existing single-family homes went up by about 1.9% compared to a year ago. This indicates that home prices are still rising even if sales are down.
  3. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will officially release the June home sales data soon. It's expected to be around 4 million sales, which is also a drop from the previous month.

Is the Vibecession Over?

Kyla’s Newsletter • 44 implied HN points • 27 Jul 23
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. The economy seems to be improving with growth, inflation cooling, and real wages increasing.
  2. Factors like government spending and low borrowing rates have helped avoid a recession.
  3. Challenges remain with issues like housing shortages, student loan payments, and worker strikes.

America's Missing Empty Homes

Apricitas Economics • 32 implied HN points • 18 Sep 23
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Housing vacancy rates in the US are at historic lows, indicating a very tight market with rising prices.
  2. Housing vacancy rates don't just consider empty units, but also look at what's available for rent or purchase.
  3. The shortage of housing in the US requires substantial new construction to meet the demand and balance the market.

Hot take monthly: tech layoff apocalypse, millennials ruin everything, and AI killed the rock star coder

startups and econ (Fais Khan) • 7 implied HN points • 08 May 23
🕹 Technology Housing Market
  1. Big Tech companies have gone through significant layoffs, but their headcounts remain substantial due to unique hiring practices.
  2. Millennials are facing challenges in the housing market with high rent rates and a potential oversupply of rental properties.
  3. AI advancements are changing the coding landscape, but the role of human coders remains crucial for complex architectural decisions.

Housing Can’t Be Affordable and an Investment

Good Reason • 3 HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. US housing has become extremely expensive, with a median single family home selling for over $400K and prices rising more than 7% annually since 2012.
  2. If housing prices continue to rise at 7% annually, they'll nearly double in 10 years and nearly quadruple in 20 years, making homes unaffordable for many.
  3. Treating housing as an investment has consequences, creating an underclass unable to afford homes and pushing more people into debt, cramped living situations, and even homelessness.

Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 2 HN points • 20 Feb 24
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. The number of single-family units built for rent almost doubled from 2020 to 2023, showing a significant increase in this housing trend.
  2. About 18% of the built-for-rent units started in 2023 were single-family units, highlighting a shift in the housing market.
  3. While single-family completions built for sale saw a decrease, completed units built for rent were up 21% year-over-year, potentially affecting rental market supply and rent prices.

Unlock a Housing Boom through Depreciation Bonuses

Arpitrage • 2 HN points • 13 Feb 24
💼 Business Housing Market
  1. Investment taxes play a crucial role in addressing the housing crisis by impacting housing affordability.
  2. Tax laws in the 1980s, especially changes in depreciation schedules, significantly influenced commercial real estate production.
  3. Adjusting accounting rules, like shortening depreciation schedules or allowing full expensing, could encourage a construction boom and potentially reduce rents.

Is it the Foreigners?

Nothing Human is Alien • 0 implied HN points • 09 Sep 22
🌍 World Politics Housing Market
  1. The Foreign Buyer Tax in British Columbia has seen a decline in foreign-involved transactions over time
  2. The tax potentially impacted foreign demand for real estate and foreign money in the market
  3. Immigration's role in the housing market complexity is debated due to factors like birth rates and housing spending preferences of immigrants

Property Tax is horrifically inefficient.

PashaNomics • 0 implied HN points • 24 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Market
  1. Property taxes can make it harder for people to buy homes and can lead to higher rents, which actually doesn't help affordability. Since buyers have to consider the extra tax costs, it may not really lower home prices as expected.
  2. Higher property taxes discourage builders from constructing new homes, which reduces the overall housing supply. If building a house becomes less appealing due to taxes, fewer homes are available, causing more competition and higher prices.
  3. Switching from property taxes to other forms of taxation, like sales taxes on homes, could be less disruptive. Using different taxes may help generate revenue without hurting both sellers and buyers as much as property taxes do.

Ticking Time Bombs and the Climate-Housing Crisis

The Snap Forward • 0 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Housing Market
  1. Climate change is making real estate more risky, especially in places affected by disasters like fires. This increases pressure on housing markets, leading to shortages and higher prices.
  2. People are willing to pay more to live in safer areas that don't face climate threats. This trend shows that safety is becoming a priority for many home buyers.
  3. The combination of a housing crunch and climate impacts is creating a situation where more people are looking for secure places to live. This demand is expected to grow, making safe properties harder to find.

December 2024 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. New home sales in December 2024 showed positive growth. This means more people are buying new houses compared to earlier months.
  2. The overall market appears to be improving based on the latest sales data. It's a good sign for the housing industry.
  3. These trends suggest that confidence in the housing market is building. Homebuyers seem to be more optimistic about making purchases.