The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Clouded Judgement 1.10.25 - Rising Rates

Clouded Judgement • 4 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The 10-year Treasury yield is rising even as the Fed cuts rates. This is mainly due to people's expectations of ongoing inflation.
  2. Strong economic growth is encouraging investors to seek riskier assets, which pushes bond yields higher. With low unemployment and good consumer sentiment, the economy looks solid.
  3. Tariffs on imports are increasing costs for businesses, which leads to higher prices for consumers. This adds to inflation worries and drives investors to demand higher bond yields.

No, DOGE Checks Wouldn’t Cause Inflation

Economic Forces • 3 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Sending out DOGE checks is unlikely to cause inflation. It's because they would probably just raise the price level temporarily, not create ongoing inflation.
  2. The impact of these checks on the economy depends on how spending changes and whether the central bank keeps spending stable.
  3. Whether giving out DOGE checks is a good idea depends on how the saved money could be used instead, like paying off government debt or funding other programs.

💸 Make America Expensive Again

UnfairNation by Ehsan Zaffar • 3 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Prices for many goods are expected to rise significantly in the next six months. This includes cars, energy, housing, and food.
  2. Tariffs are increasing costs for consumers, adding $250 to $420 more to monthly expenses, which is hard for many people to afford.
  3. Although tariffs promise to fund government services, cuts to staff and agencies may prevent taxpayers from seeing any real benefits.

Venstappen Victory Lap

Malt Liquidity • 8 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Food delivery companies like Doordash may struggle to sustain growth post-lockdowns, facing challenges with profitability and expanding their customer base.
  2. Central bank policies face challenges in balancing inflation control and market stability, leading to potential risks of speculative bubbles and volatility.
  3. Inflation can impact investment decisions, prompting individuals to seek ways to outpace the rate of return to counter its effects.
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Why Does the State Have a Monopoly on Money?

Economic Forces • 8 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The state's monopoly on money is motivated by the ability to generate quick revenue.
  2. One key reason for this lasting monopoly is the state's need for emergency financing, especially during wars.
  3. For the state to maintain the monopoly over money, it needs to commit to long-run price stability, ensuring the currency's purchasing power is preserved over time.

Best of Economic Forces: 2024 Edition

Economic Forces • 3 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The author reflected on the past year's posts, sharing which ones were popular and enjoyable to write. This is a great way to highlight important topics for new and old readers.
  2. The popular topics included misunderstandings about tariffs and inflation, showing that basic economics is relevant in understanding current issues.
  3. The author expressed gratitude for the growing support from readers, emphasizing the joy and importance of sharing knowledge about economics.

It’s a good thing to have several suppliers

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Having many suppliers is important for businesses. It helps keep prices lower because they can compare options more easily.
  2. If companies rely on just one supplier, they might save money at first but face risks later, especially if there are problems like tariffs.
  3. Countries with diverse supply chains can handle trade issues better. For instance, if the US and EU have a trade dispute, the EU might face less inflation due to their varied suppliers.

From oil price speculation to higher inflation?

Klement on Investing • 6 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Speculators in commodity futures markets may increase price volatility but do not have a significant long-term impact on price levels.
  2. Rise in oil prices in 2021 and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a key driver of inflation spike in 2022 and 2023.
  3. Study suggests that oil price spike was partially due to excessive speculation by oil traders, which in turn contributed to an increase in US inflation.

What is the Federal Reserve Thinking?

Economic Forces • 5 implied HN points • 21 Dec 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Federal Reserve's projection for the federal funds rate in 2024 is lower than previously thought.
  2. Understanding the 'natural' rate of interest is key to interpreting monetary policy.
  3. There is uncertainty in declaring victory over inflation without causing a recession.

How long? How variable?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The effects of interest rate hikes from the Fed can take a long time to show in the economy, often around 40 months. This means changes don’t happen immediately after decisions are made.
  2. Different types of goods react to rate hikes differently. For example, inflation for durable goods can keep rising right after a hike, while nondurable goods start to decrease right away.
  3. Today’s economy is more service-oriented than it was decades ago, making it harder to control inflation. This shift means that the impact of monetary policy is felt later and inflation management becomes more complex.

[Re-post] Inflation and Time

Economic Forces • 4 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation is about money prices, not relative prices.
  2. Measuring inflation accurately is challenging due to various factors.
  3. The cost of living can be better understood by measuring the cost of goods in terms of time.

Housing Can’t Be Affordable and an Investment

Good Reason • 3 HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. US housing has become extremely expensive, with a median single family home selling for over $400K and prices rising more than 7% annually since 2012.
  2. If housing prices continue to rise at 7% annually, they'll nearly double in 10 years and nearly quadruple in 20 years, making homes unaffordable for many.
  3. Treating housing as an investment has consequences, creating an underclass unable to afford homes and pushing more people into debt, cramped living situations, and even homelessness.

Supply and demand can explain anything. That's not great.

Economic Forces • 4 implied HN points • 14 Sep 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Using supply and demand to explain observations can be overly flexible and lead to pure sophistry in economics.
  2. Models based on implicit agreements, folk theorems, and coordination failures can be unfalsifiable and offer no predictive power.
  3. When evaluating economic theories, it's important to consider if they can provide meaningful predictions and not just overlapping explanations.

Did the Fed engineer a soft landing?

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Fed helped lower inflation significantly, reducing core inflation by about two percentage points. However, most of the drop in inflation came from factors outside the Fed's control, like global demand changes.
  2. High-income households have played a big role in keeping the US economy strong during tough times. Their spending helped prevent a recession, even as lower-income groups struggled more.
  3. While the Fed's actions can be seen as positive for the economy, they also disproportionately benefited the wealthy. This raises questions about how well the overall economy truly supports everyone.

The Goods-Services Rotation Theory of Inflation

Arpitrage • 1 HN point • 01 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The pandemic caused a shift in spending from services to goods, impacting inflation rates.
  2. The supply chain disruptions in the goods sector due to the pandemic contributed to inflation as well.
  3. Policy responses during the pandemic influenced inflation, with excess savings and sectoral demand shifts playing significant roles.

How Inflation Became a Fact of Life

Informer • 0 implied HN points • 26 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation was not always a steady increase - it used to fluctuate erratically.
  2. The concept of a 'normal price level' has shifted to a 'normal inflation rate' in public mindset.
  3. The shift from the old inflation regime to the new one happened suddenly in the 20th century.

Inflation Is Set to Fall. The Fed Should Back Off.

Informer • 0 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Wage growth is slowing down, which is likely to lead to a decrease in inflation.
  2. Long-term correlation between wage growth and inflation is significant, suggesting a strong influence on prices.
  3. Wages can be seen as a key indicator of underlying inflationary trends, similar to core inflation indexes.

US Debt Hits $31 Trillion as Inflation Surges to 40-Year High: What Does This Mean for American Businesses and Households?

The Tweetsift Report • 0 implied HN points • 10 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. The US debt has reached $31 trillion, hitting small businesses hard.
  2. Inflation has surged to a 40-year high of 9.1%, posing a significant challenge for many Americans.
  3. Efforts are being made to improve tax compliance by raising IRS funding, potentially leading to higher taxes for some individuals and businesses.

Vol. 3, No. 21 — Broken in peaces

Valuabl • 0 implied HN points • 13 Oct 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Financial markets seem surprisingly calm despite brutality in the Middle East
  2. Global financial system remains stable despite significant bond losses
  3. Investors have shown interest in aerospace and defense firms amid the crisis

Investing Update: What Recession? 

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Investor sentiment is shifting towards a bull market after a long streak of bearish sentiment.
  2. Inflation has peaked but certain sectors like services, particularly shelter costs, are still stubborn.
  3. Consumer spending is on the rise, reducing the likelihood of a recession, with odds dropping significantly.

A tough year

Tech and Finance by G • 0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The economy is expected to worsen by the end of the year due to various factors like inflation and limited supply.
  2. The Federal Reserve is trying to manage inflation through rate hikes, but there is concern that it may lead to a recession.
  3. There is a prediction that the government will have to print more money to manage high inflation, resulting in a difficult economic situation.

Investing Update: Is Inflation Reigniting? 

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The S&P 500 has been on a significant upward trend, reaching record highs in recent weeks with impressive gains over several consecutive weeks.
  2. Historically, February has been a weak month for the S&P 500, and concerns about the market's performance during election years have been raised.
  3. Early indicators suggest a potential reignition of inflation, despite some positive economic data, with a focus on declining number of stocks above the 50-day moving average.

How to construct an investment portfolio in different inflation regimes

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Stocks perform best in falling and stable inflation; commodities and precious metals perform well in rising inflation.
  2. During periods of falling inflation, stocks are favored, followed by bonds and real estate. Commodities tend to be the worst performers.
  3. In stable inflation environments, stocks still play a significant role, while real estate, bonds, commodities, and precious metals are also included in the portfolio.

What if the Fed does not cut rates this year and hikes instead?

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Market investors and traders are starting to consider the possibility of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve instead of a rate cut this year due to stubborn inflation data.
  2. Recent market reactions show a significant shift in expectations, with traders now expecting 3 to 4 interest rate cuts in 2024 compared to the initial expectation of over 7 cuts.
  3. There is now a notable risk in the market as some investors are beginning to hedge against the possibility of an interest rate hike, which could lead to turbulent times if inflation data continues to surprise on the upside.

Why the Fed fears cutting interest rates too soon

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Fed fears cutting interest rates too soon due to concerns about a potential inflation resurgence similar to the 1970s.
  2. The Federal Reserve in the 1970s under Arthur Burns made a significant policy mistake by cutting interest rates too soon, leading to high inflation rates later.
  3. Lessons from history emphasize the importance of not cutting interest rates prematurely, and the Fed is cautious about considering rate cuts until more data is available to assess inflation and economic indicators.

no. 48: the bend in the shovel

let them eat cake • 0 implied HN points • 30 Nov 21
🍲 Food & Drink Inflation
  1. The updated hawkers' food pricing should increase to reflect a more accurate estimation of household budget needs in Singapore.
  2. Increasing hawker food prices by 27% could significantly impact the overall household income needs of most Singaporeans, particularly lower income groups.
  3. Hawker food prices have been kept low in Singapore through government subsidies, but a significant price hike is necessary for hawkers to maintain a standard of living reflecting the current economic landscape.