The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Apricitas Economics β€’ 51 implied HN points β€’ 10 Jun 23
  1. UK's economy has shrunk by 0.5% since the pandemic while other economies have grown
  2. UK has the worst labor market recovery in the G7 with declining employment rates
  3. British inflation crisis remains severe with high CPI and real growth weakness
Apricitas Economics β€’ 56 implied HN points β€’ 09 Apr 23
  1. American employment rates have fully recovered from the pandemic, showing a rapid and broad-based labor market recovery.
  2. The recovery is broad-based, with almost all industries and age groups showing increased employment rates.
  3. The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with maximizing employment for the ongoing historic labor market recovery.
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The Transcript β€’ 19 implied HN points β€’ 27 Feb 23
  1. Inflation is showing resilience similar to consumers, creating challenges for the Fed.
  2. This poses a problem for the Fed's goal of reaching 2% inflation.
  3. The capital markets are affected as they expected the end of tighter monetary policies.
QTR’s Fringe Finance β€’ 28 implied HN points β€’ 12 Feb 24
  1. Bitcoin adoption could be accelerated through a major financial crisis where people seek an exit ramp from the traditional financial system.
  2. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin allows for success to be tied to its growth, empowering individuals who are tired of traditional financial institutions.
  3. Bitcoin offers a chance for the public to break the cycle of bearing the cost of financial failures by opting out of the current system and embracing digital freedom.
QTR’s Fringe Finance β€’ 11 implied HN points β€’ 13 Dec 24
  1. Inflation in 2024 could be caused by supply issues, like hurricanes and strikes, which disrupt the availability of goods and services.
  2. Much of the high inflation seen after the pandemic was actually driven by demand rather than just supply problems.
  3. As supply conditions improve, inflation rates might decrease, but currently, tighter monetary policy and slowed spending suggest that inflation could remain high.
Musings on Markets β€’ 39 implied HN points β€’ 27 Jan 22
  1. Inflation has been high for a while, affecting how investors view the market. People are worried it won't just go away and are trying to figure out its impact on stocks and bonds.
  2. How we measure inflation can change depending on what we look at. What's important is how the market expects inflation to behave in the future, rather than just focusing on what's already happened.
  3. Interest rates and inflation are closely linked. If inflation expectations rise, it can push interest rates up, and this also affects how different investments perform, particularly when inflation is unexpected.
The Works in Progress Newsletter β€’ 12 implied HN points β€’ 14 Nov 24
  1. Inflation measurement is complex and changes in how we calculate it can significantly impact our understanding of the economy. Small adjustments can make us feel either richer or poorer.
  2. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is crucial for economic policies, affecting everything from Social Security benefits to tax brackets, which makes its measurement a point of political debate.
  3. Various methods and indexes, like the PCE and the chained CPI, aim to capture price changes accurately, but they each have strengths and weaknesses in addressing real-life consumer experiences.
Apricitas Economics β€’ 46 implied HN points β€’ 13 May 23
  1. Core inflation is cooling, signaling a potential slowdown in inflationary pressure.
  2. Data shows a decline in core services inflation and rent prices, indicating progress in curbing inflation.
  3. Businesses and markets expect inflation to remain above 2% in the near future, but long-run inflation expectations are stable.
Apricitas Economics β€’ 42 implied HN points β€’ 20 Jun 23
  1. US supply chains are recovering after facing crises due to the pandemic.
  2. Constraints like materials shortages and logistics issues are decreasing, indicating improvements in the supply chain.
  3. Consumer demand for goods has slowed down, leading to manufacturers facing more demand constraints than supply constraints.
QTR’s Fringe Finance β€’ 29 implied HN points β€’ 13 Dec 23
  1. NPCs in video games are characters controlled by programming and lack independent thought, and this concept is applied to describe certain individuals in real life scenarios.
  2. Passive stock market investors are compared to headless chickens mindlessly moving around, fueled by 'animal spirits' that keep the market going up.
  3. The stock market is considered overpriced, with potential risks of massive deleveraging, deflationary depression, and negative effects of a nation monetizing its own debt.
QTR’s Fringe Finance β€’ 34 implied HN points β€’ 29 Aug 23
  1. Over $10 trillion was recklessly spent on Covid relief, making people significantly poorer.
  2. The government's panicked spending went unnoticed by many due to the distribution method of electronic funds and stimulus checks.
  3. Inflation devalued household savings, widening the wealth gap and creating social stratification.
QTR’s Fringe Finance β€’ 28 implied HN points β€’ 15 Nov 23
  1. Predicting market movements can be difficult, and it's important to acknowledge when predictions are not accurate.
  2. Even if past predictions have been off, it's necessary to stick to the underlying thesis and reasons for the forecasts.
  3. Quick excitement about economic factors like inflation or rate cuts may not always be warranted; it's important to take a more balanced perspective.
Apricitas Economics β€’ 31 implied HN points β€’ 21 Sep 23
  1. The Fed is projecting a softer landing without the need for a recession to control inflation.
  2. There is less uncertainty in FOMC forecasts, and they anticipate higher GDP growth and slightly higher inflation.
  3. There are disagreements within the FOMC on the duration and extent of keeping interest rates high, with some seeing rates potentially staying permanently higher.
Economic Forces β€’ 10 implied HN points β€’ 21 Nov 24
  1. Understanding whether inflation is caused by supply issues or increased demand is key. Supply-driven inflation leads to less output, while demand-driven inflation increases prices and output together.
  2. Nominal GDP growth is a useful measure to determine the cause of inflation. When nominal GDP increases alongside inflation, it usually indicates demand-driven inflation.
  3. Asking sellers why prices are rising often misses the real cause. Increased demand can look similar to supply issues, so it's important to analyze economic data carefully.
Kyla’s Newsletter β€’ 36 implied HN points β€’ 08 Jun 23
  1. Feeling uncertain about the economy can lead to a sense of badness even when things are okay-ish.
  2. Loss aversion bias makes people focus more on potential losses rather than potential gains.
  3. Uncertainty, social media influence, and loud voices can amplify fear and uncertainty, contributing to a sense of badness.
Economic Forces β€’ 7 implied HN points β€’ 30 Jan 25
  1. Some people think inflation is good because it helps prevent deflation, but this argument is weak. Deflation can be harmful mainly when caused by poor policies, not just by falling prices.
  2. Inflation is often compared to a hidden tax because it decreases the value of money. Unlike regular taxes, people might not realize their purchasing power is being reduced until they feel the effects.
  3. Overall, inflation can create confusion and make economic decisions harder. It undermines the value of money as a reference point, leading to more mistakes and inefficiencies in both personal and business finances.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 19 implied HN points β€’ 05 Mar 24
  1. Real house prices in the US are currently 2.4% below the recent peak, indicating a slight decline in prices adjusted for inflation.
  2. It's important to consider the price-to-rent ratio to understand the affordability of housing markets.
  3. National house prices are historically high after being 10.2% above the bubble peak level, despite the market's ups and downs over 17 years.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 19 implied HN points β€’ 27 Feb 24
  1. American Homes for Rent (AMH) saw a decline in occupancy rate last quarter, contrasting with Invitation Homes.
  2. The average monthly rents of INVH and AMH seem to lead the CPI's Rent of Primary Residence by about two quarters, and rent growth has remained above the overall inflation rate.
  3. Rental inflation remains elevated for many single-family renters despite certain limitations in the rent trend comparisons and geographic focuses of these companies.
Some Unpleasant Arithmetic β€’ 8 implied HN points β€’ 28 Nov 24
  1. Tariffs are taxes on imports that can increase prices for consumers. When companies bring products from abroad, they pay these taxes when the goods arrive in the country.
  2. The concept of comparative advantage suggests that countries should specialize in what they do best. This means countries can save money and resources by trading instead of trying to produce everything themselves.
  3. Using tariffs can lead to higher prices and less efficiency in production. This approach can disrupt supply chains and hurt the overall economy, making things more expensive for everyone.
Anima Mundi β€’ 20 implied HN points β€’ 11 Dec 23
  1. The global economy is facing challenges due to a disconnect between production and mounting debt.
  2. Focusing on green energy alone may not solve the economic crisis caused by resource scarcity.
  3. Potential scenarios after a financial crash include the possibility of relying on Bitcoin, challenges in returning to the gold standard, and the slow burn decline of the global economy.
Apricitas Economics β€’ 35 implied HN points β€’ 15 Feb 23
  1. US inflation is slowing down, especially in energy and core goods sectors.
  2. There is expected disinflation in housing and services, like rents.
  3. Financial markets anticipate longer and bumpier road to disinflation, with high growth indicators.
The Fat Software Engineer β€’ 30 implied HN points β€’ 03 May 23
  1. Consider opening a Cash ISA with a good interest rate if you might need the money in less than 5 years.
  2. Research different options and banks to find the best interest rate for a Cash ISA.
  3. Understand that with high inflation, even with a 3.4% interest rate, the buying power of money in a Cash ISA can still decrease.
Economic Forces β€’ 6 implied HN points β€’ 19 Dec 24
  1. Inflation is when prices keep going up over time, not just a one-time price hike. This shows that inflation affects the overall economy and not just individual items.
  2. Measuring inflation involves looking at how much purchasing power money loses. When money loses value, prices generally rise, which means inflation is happening.
  3. It's important to consider how supply and demand for money influence inflation. Understanding this can help people assess the real causes behind rising prices and not just blame specific products.
Apricitas Economics β€’ 28 implied HN points β€’ 30 Mar 23
  1. US inflation is mainly driven by demand-side pressures due to excess money chasing limited goods
  2. Supply chain issues, like shortages and constraints, are significant contributors to persistent inflation globally
  3. Businesses are struggling to balance market demand with their production capabilities, resulting in ongoing supply chain challenges
Gideon's Substack β€’ 19 implied HN points β€’ 26 Oct 23
  1. The American economy is performing exceptionally well post-pandemic, surpassing other developed countries.
  2. There is a notable disconnect between people's perceptions of the economy and the actual economic data, leading to various theories and concerns.
  3. Factors such as the pandemic hangover, inflation, wage discrepancies, and fiscal uncertainties contribute to the complex economic landscape, influencing consumer sentiment and political outcomes.
Clouded Judgement β€’ 14 implied HN points β€’ 16 Feb 24
  1. Software companies are showing signs of a potential rebound in January based on earnings reports and early data, signaling green shoots for the industry.
  2. January inflation, especially the CPI, was higher than expected, impacting market expectations for future rate cuts and projections for the Fed Funds rate.
  3. Valuations for software businesses are often calculated based on multiples of revenue, with different growth rates affecting these valuations significantly.
Klement on Investing β€’ 2 implied HN points β€’ 11 Jun 25
  1. Companies often raise prices immediately when there are announcements of new tariffs. They do this to prepare for higher future costs even before tariffs actually take effect.
  2. Retailers have shown that price increases on imported goods tend to stay high, even if tariffs are later paused or reversed. This suggests that once prices go up, it can be hard for them to come back down.
  3. The price changes from tariffs could impact inflation in the US economy. This means the Federal Reserve may need to pay close attention to these trends to manage economic stability.