The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways

1/11/2024: December CPI Came in Hot

depression2022 • 0 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24

December CPI shows a 0.3% MoM rise for Headline and Core CPI
Core CPI staying at 0.3% MoM may delay expected rate cuts
Investors hopeful for rate cuts are warned there may be fewer than expected, unless there's a major issue

A tough year

Tech and Finance by G • 0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23

💰 Finance Economy Inflation Federal Reserve Government spending Recession

The economy is expected to worsen by the end of the year due to various factors like inflation and limited supply.
The Federal Reserve is trying to manage inflation through rate hikes, but there is concern that it may lead to a recession.
There is a prediction that the government will have to print more money to manage high inflation, resulting in a difficult economic situation.

NH Governor Downplays Importance of Violent Insurrection With Support for Trump

The Washington Current • 0 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Capitol Attack Border Security Inflation

NH Governor Chris Sununu downplays the importance of the violent insurrection on January 6th, 2021.
Sununu prioritizes issues like border security and inflation over the insurrection when it comes to voters.
Despite endorsing Nikki Haley, Sununu may support Trump if he wins the nomination.

Investing Update: Is Inflation Reigniting?

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24

💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Inflation Recession Oil

The S&P 500 has been on a significant upward trend, reaching record highs in recent weeks with impressive gains over several consecutive weeks.
Historically, February has been a weak month for the S&P 500, and concerns about the market's performance during election years have been raised.
Early indicators suggest a potential reignition of inflation, despite some positive economic data, with a focus on declining number of stocks above the 50-day moving average.

How to construct an investment portfolio in different inflation regimes

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24

💰 Finance Investing Inflation Asset Classes Economic Indicators

Stocks perform best in falling and stable inflation; commodities and precious metals perform well in rising inflation.
During periods of falling inflation, stocks are favored, followed by bonds and real estate. Commodities tend to be the worst performers.
In stable inflation environments, stocks still play a significant role, while real estate, bonds, commodities, and precious metals are also included in the portfolio.

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What if the Fed does not cut rates this year and hikes instead?

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24

💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates Inflation Investors

Market investors and traders are starting to consider the possibility of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve instead of a rate cut this year due to stubborn inflation data.
Recent market reactions show a significant shift in expectations, with traders now expecting 3 to 4 interest rate cuts in 2024 compared to the initial expectation of over 7 cuts.
There is now a notable risk in the market as some investors are beginning to hedge against the possibility of an interest rate hike, which could lead to turbulent times if inflation data continues to surprise on the upside.

Why the Fed fears cutting interest rates too soon

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24

💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Economic History

The Fed fears cutting interest rates too soon due to concerns about a potential inflation resurgence similar to the 1970s.
The Federal Reserve in the 1970s under Arthur Burns made a significant policy mistake by cutting interest rates too soon, leading to high inflation rates later.
Lessons from history emphasize the importance of not cutting interest rates prematurely, and the Fed is cautious about considering rate cuts until more data is available to assess inflation and economic indicators.

no. 48: the bend in the shovel

let them eat cake • 0 implied HN points • 30 Nov 21

🍲 Food & Drink Inflation

The updated hawkers' food pricing should increase to reflect a more accurate estimation of household budget needs in Singapore.
Increasing hawker food prices by 27% could significantly impact the overall household income needs of most Singaporeans, particularly lower income groups.
Hawker food prices have been kept low in Singapore through government subsidies, but a significant price hike is necessary for hawkers to maintain a standard of living reflecting the current economic landscape.

The Federal Reserve and the War on Health Freedom

Harnessing the Power of Nutrients • 0 implied HN points • 07 Feb 09

💰 Finance Federal Reserve Health Freedom Inflation Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve plays a significant role in redistributing wealth from the poor and middle class to the rich, benefiting corporations closely tied to the government.
Through fractional reserve banking, the Federal Reserve creates money out of thin air, leading to inflation, which decreases the value of the dollar and disproportionately impacts the working population.
The welfare state, backed by the Federal Reserve, has facilitated wars on cholesterol and health freedom, impacting public welfare under the guise of promoting it.

Inflation is here

Rob Leclerc • 0 implied HN points • 13 Mar 21

💰 Finance Inflation Economic Impact Mortgages Interest Rates

Inflation is a looming crisis, with unseen impacts in traditional measures like CPI, causing economic and social turmoil.
Low mortgage rates are fueling a housing market frenzy, with limited supply driving prices sky-high, putting pressure on buyers and sellers.
Potential consequences include prolonged generational effects, hyperinflation risks, and exacerbation of wealth inequality between different age groups.

Political perils of economic policy

America in Crisis • 0 implied HN points • 14 Jul 23

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Working Class Republican party Inflation

Real wages have not risen as expected under President Biden's economic policies, leading to declining popularity among working-class Americans.
Historical wage trends show a shift in the perceived economic support for working people by political parties.
Democrats face challenges in translating economic gains into benefits for workers due to the primary focus on growing shareholders' equity in the modern economy.

The Debt Crisis

America in Crisis • 0 implied HN points • 15 Jun 23

💰 Finance Debt crisis Inflation Economic Growth Tax policy

The debt crisis in the West is seen as a necessary and inevitable event that will lead to major global restructuring.
The rise of speculative and Ponzi finance units in the economy increases the likelihood of a financial crisis, as seen in historical examples like the 2008 Great Recession.
To move towards a more stable economic future, a shift towards stakeholder capitalism culture, high taxes on the wealthy, and internal financing mechanisms like QE may be necessary.

Future prospects in a secular cycle crisis

America in Crisis • 0 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Crisis Inflation Stock Market Economic Policy Political parties

The US is experiencing a crisis similar to historical patterns of great nations, but this time, the crises may not be resolved in the same dramatic ways due to modern circumstances like interventions by economic policymakers.
Civil strife in America may resemble the Troubles in Northern Ireland, but the country's size and past responses to radical movements indicate that major turmoil might not lead to political revolution.
The current economic focus is on inflation, with predictions indicating that actions like interest rate adjustments could impact the economy by fall and potentially lead to a soft landing, altering the investment environment.

Extension of inflation model before 1948

America in Crisis • 0 implied HN points • 07 Feb 23

💰 Finance Inflation Balance Economic Policy

The historical analysis shows how money flows, such as trade surpluses and fiscal deficits, can impact inflation and economic stability.
The gold standard had a notable impact on economic conditions, causing deflation and influencing policies like interest rates and money supply.
Active economic policy interventions, like wage and price controls during wartime, demonstrated effectiveness in controlling inflation and stabilizing the economy.

Pop quiz

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 08 Jul 11

💰 Finance Economics Investments Inflation Market Trends

The price of oil going up or down can be seen as both good and bad. It depends on how it affects the economy and individual finances.
Higher oil prices can benefit oil companies and help certain investments, which might be good for retirement funds.
However, rising oil prices can also lead to inflation, making it harder for many people to afford goods and services.

Inflation and Investing: False Alarm or Fair Warning?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 24 May 21

💰 Finance Investing Inflation Bonds Equities Market Trends

Inflation is rising, and many people are debating whether it will be temporary or a more lasting issue. This uncertainty affects how investors think about their money.
Different investments react to inflation in various ways. For example, bonds often struggle with unexpected inflation, while real estate and commodities like gold tend to do better.
Understanding inflation can help you make better investment choices. Knowing how different sectors and asset types might perform can guide your decisions in uncertain economic times.

Decoding Currency Risk: Pictures of Global Risk - Part IV

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 30 Jul 15

💰 Finance Valuation Inflation Investment Analysis Market Dynamics

When valuing something, it's important to match the currency of your cash flows with your discount rate. This is because different currencies have varying expected inflation rates, which can affect both the cash flows and the discount rates.
You should be careful when estimating expected growth rates and cash flows, as they need to reflect the same inflation assumptions used for discount rates. If they don't match, you might miscalculate a company's value.
It's essential to separate your views on currency movements from your company valuations. A well-run company should be worth the same regardless of the currency used, as long as the valuation methods are consistent.

Inspiration or Insanity? Fed action and Market Reaction

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 17 Sep 12

💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Analysis Economic Growth Interest Rates Inflation

The Federal Reserve only controls the Fed Funds rate, not other interest rates like mortgages or corporate bonds. This means that its power over the entire market is limited.
The Fed can influence short-term interest rates more easily than long-term rates. Despite their actions, they can't fully control the bond market, which is very large.
If the economy starts growing, interest rates are likely to rise, which contradicts the Fed's goal of keeping them low. This creates a tricky situation where their actions may not lead to the intended economic growth.

QE2 or the Titanic?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 04 Nov 10

💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Debt Management Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inflation

Injecting money into the economy aims to lower interest rates and encourage borrowing, but rates are already very low. It's unclear if lowering them further will actually get people to borrow more.
Many households are already in debt, and encouraging them to borrow more could lead to future financial problems. It's like creating a bubble that could burst.
There's a worry that printing more money could lead to inflation and make the dollar weaker, which would increase prices for imported goods. This could hurt consumers in the long run.

Inflation, deflation and investing

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 14 Oct 10

💰 Finance Investing Economics Inflation Deflation Portfolio Investing Economics Market Trends Taxation Asset management

Economists disagree on whether we are heading into inflation or deflation, but both have big impacts on investing. It's important to understand how these economic changes can affect your portfolio.
Inflation can hurt stock values because it increases costs and taxes while the ability to raise prices might not keep up. Companies with strong brands can handle inflation better than others.
If you expect high inflation, consider investing in real assets or companies that can pass costs to customers. For deflation, focus more on financial assets and companies selling essential products.

The Fed Effect: Central Banks and Equity Value

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 21 Feb 10

💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Economic Growth Equity markets Inflation Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economic Growth

Central banks like the Federal Reserve influence stock prices in complex ways. A small rise in interest rates doesn't always mean bad news for stocks as their effects can vary.
Short-term interest rates can drop when central banks raise rates, which might be seen as a move to control inflation. This action can sometimes lead to lower long-term rates.
The credibility of a central bank matters a lot. If it’s seen as strong and effective, a rate increase can be viewed positively, suggesting the economy is strong enough to handle it.

Inflation data disappoints, notes on Crunchbase's AI strategy, and the latest OpenAI math

Alex's Personal Blog • 0 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24

💰 Finance Inflation AI Strategy Market Trends Business valuation Data Analysis

September's inflation data showed a 0.2% rise, with the yearly change at 2.4%. This suggests some ongoing economic pressure.
Crunchbase is focusing on AI by enhancing its data tools. They introduced AI-powered search features to improve access to their extensive data.
OpenAI is projected to have significant cash losses but could still become profitable by 2029 with a strong revenue base. The risks of high spending in this sector are considerable.

Inflation, defanged tigers, GM pulls the Cruise plug, and Tom Cotton

Alex's Personal Blog • 0 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Media Inflation Business Technology

Inflation in the U.S. has increased to 2.7% recently, which is the highest since June. There are expectations for a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve soon, but future tariffs could complicate the inflation forecast.
General Motors has decided to stop its Cruise robotaxi project after investing over $10 billion. They plan to focus on autonomous and assisted driving instead, signaling challenges in the competitive robotaxi market.
Senator Tom Cotton blocked a bill aimed at protecting journalists from legal pressure to reveal sources. This move raised concerns about press freedoms and the future role of traditional media in the face of emerging platforms.

Defense funding, Lyft earnings, inflation data, and the sad state of IPOs

Alex's Personal Blog • 0 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25

💰 Finance Investments Earnings Inflation Market Trends Funding

Defense funding is increasing, and it looks like 2025 will have a record high in investments for defense companies. New opportunities in this sector are popping up, indicating strong growth potential.
Recent inflation data shows consumer prices rising more than expected, which suggests interest rates might stay higher for longer. This could affect economic decisions moving forward.
Lyft's recent earnings report was disappointing, and the company's announcement about future self-driving taxis seemed like an attempt to distract from weaker financial results.