The hottest Macro Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

Investing Update: Are Tech Stocks Rested & Ready?

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 24 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macro
  1. Tariff-driven geopolitical headlines can cause sharp, short-term selloffs, but markets often rebound after clarifications.
  2. A clear sector rotation is underway as leadership shifts in 2026 away from last year’s tech winners toward other sectors.
  3. The main open question is whether big tech is merely resting and will reassert leadership, or if the rotation will continue to keep those stocks sidelined.

26 Stocks I'm Watching For 2026: Part 2

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 33 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Macro
  1. Concentrated thematic bets paid off in 2025 — nuclear names, gold and silver miners, rare-earths, select EMs, and some high‑beta innovation trades drove big outperformance versus the S&P.
  2. Heading into 2026 there are clear systemic risks: a tapped‑out American consumer and rising delinquencies, stretched valuations (especially around AI capex), a weakening passive bid, crypto becoming systemically embedded, and geopolitical/monetary shifts pushing demand for hard assets.
  3. There are two plausible market paths next year: a liquidity‑driven grind higher if policymakers keep backstopping markets, or a more painful deleveraging as real economic strain reasserts itself; positioning favors international/EM discounts and precious metals as hedges while aiming for relative outperformance.

The Case For Sanity

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 01 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macro
  1. The market looks massively overvalued and some investors are positioned short major indexes expecting a significant pullback.
  2. Price action is being distorted by heavy monetary intervention, retail speculation, algorithmic momentum, and passive buying, so traditional fundamentals often aren't driving valuations.
  3. Consumer demand is weakening — inflation-adjusted retail sales are negative — which raises the risk that earnings and the market could come under pressure.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Liquidity, Not Logic: QTR And Epoch Times Talk Markets

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 21 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macro
  1. Stocks are driven more by liquidity and expectations of policy support than by the current health of the real economy, so bad economic news can sometimes lift markets even as it masks growing strain and creates moral hazard that shifts costs into inflation and weaker purchasing power.
  2. Market valuations look high by almost every historical measure, leaving little margin for error, so investors should be realistic about what they’re paying for and the future growth those prices assume.
  3. Speculation is concentrated in areas like crypto and parts of AI where downside can be sudden, and individual investors should read 10‑Ks, compare peers, understand debt and cash flow, and beware passive flows and index concentration.

Big Forces, Asset Pricing

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 196 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Macro
  1. Big forces can often be hidden and not immediately obvious, impacting decision making.
  2. Technology like AI can be a major productivity booster but may also cause wealth inequality.
  3. Understanding economic growth and spending is crucial for evaluating stock and bond pricing.

Back to Our Targets

The Transcript • 359 implied HN points • 16 Oct 23
đź’° Finance Macro
  1. Federal Reserve officials are pleased with recent inflation data and may not raise rates again soon.
  2. The consumer seems strong, especially affluent consumers, but there are concerns about lower FICO consumers.
  3. Geopolitical tensions, like the conflict in Ukraine, could have significant impacts on energy and food markets.

Investing Update: Mag 7 Dethroned or Dormant?

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 17 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macro
  1. Markets pulled back slightly as rising yields and Fed Chair uncertainty outweighed strong chip earnings, but year-to-date returns remain positive and Bitcoin, gold, and small-caps were up.
  2. Breadth is improving — all 11 S&P sectors are back above their 200-day averages, more stocks are above both their 50- and 200-day lines, and the share of weak stocks is shrinking.
  3. Tech has been essentially flat for about four months, raising the question whether the Mag 7 mega-cap stocks are permanently dethroned or simply dormant as earnings and guidance season unfolds.

Down The Path(ways)

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 13 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macro
  1. A favored sector is already making noticeable progress this year and appears to have real momentum.
  2. This piece is an early-January update, serving as an early-year check on how the sector is performing.
  3. The full write-up is behind a paywall, so you need to subscribe or sign in to read the complete analysis.

Investing Update: Where Are The IPOs?

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 13 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Macro
  1. The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs and is tracking toward a 6,900 year-end target.
  2. The rally is broadening beyond AI and the Mag 7 — equal-weight S&P and sectors like small-caps, industrials, and financials are making new highs.
  3. Markets got volatile as the Nasdaq underperformed after tech earnings and rising yields, and IPO activity remains surprisingly quiet.

Investing Update: Has The Santa Rally Started?

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 20 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Macro
  1. Late-week strength in tech, especially AI-linked names, pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher while the Dow slipped but remains on a strong monthly streak.
  2. The S&P 500 is very close to the year-end target of 6,900 — it sits around 6,835 with only seven trading days left, so the target could be decided in the final week.
  3. Since November 21 there’s been a rotation into undervalued, cyclical and economically sensitive sectors, prompting speculation that the Magnificent 7 may underperform in 2026, though that shift may not be permanent.

When do sentiment shocks boost economic growth?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Macro
  1. When economic uncertainty is high, positive surprises in GDP tend to trigger faster output growth for about two years, but similar surprises don’t boost growth when uncertainty is low.
  2. Prices respond the opposite way: in high-uncertainty periods a positive sentiment shock slightly lowers prices, while in low-uncertainty periods it tends to raise prices (more inflation).
  3. In uncertain times businesses and investors take cues from data and leaders, so optimistic signals or inspirational leadership can change behaviour and become self-fulfilling, whereas in stable times such efforts usually have little effect.

Thematics for 2026

Subsack • 4 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Macro
  1. AI and its infrastructure are the central investment theme, with big-model companies, chips, and a huge jump in storage demand (RAM and disk) driving a tech supercycle.
  2. Government action and geopolitics are reshaping markets, as strategic funding, regulation, and supply‑chain moves boost defence, rare earths, nuclear, and give crypto/stablecoins clearer legitimacy.
  3. Portfolios are being rebalanced for 2026: new themes like storage, drones, LNG, robotics and space are being added while travel, luxury, gambling and clean energy are being trimmed; pharma, crypto and precious metals stay as key hedges.