Ecoinometrics

Ecoinometrics focuses on Bitcoin's evolving role in finance, analyzing its performance, comparisons to traditional assets like gold, market trends, and economic indicators affecting its valuation. It delves into Bitcoin's potential as a hedge against inflation, effects of monetary policy, and implications of technological and market developments on its future.

Bitcoin Market Analysis Monetary Policy and Inflation Economic Indicators Asset Comparison (Bitcoin vs. Gold) Bitcoin Mining Cryptocurrency ETFs Market Correlations Financial Market Trends Investment Strategies

The hottest Substack posts of Ecoinometrics

And their main takeaways

Massive growth potential for the Bitcoin ETFs

530 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing ETFs Banks Bitcoin Economy
  1. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC can lead to massive growth potential for Bitcoin investments.
  2. Fees in ETFs are crucial for performance - lower fees can significantly impact investment returns over time.
  3. Banks initially needing loans now profit from them, showcasing an interesting shift in liquidity management.

Bitcoin ETFs: winners and losers

255 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bitcoin ETFs Cryptocurrencies Economy Investing Macroeconomics
  1. Bitcoin ETFs have winners like BlackRock and Fidelity, along with losers like Grayscale, showing the importance of scale in this market.
  2. Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing decreasing correlation, hinting at potential opportunities for more diverse trading options in the crypto market.
  3. Historically, US presidential election years do not necessarily prevent economic downturns, revealing the limitations politicians have in propping up the economy.

Why ETF fees matter when you choose your Bitcoin ETF

393 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Bitcoin ETFs Fees Retirement
  1. When choosing a Bitcoin ETF, fees are crucial as they can significantly impact your investment performance over time.
  2. High fees can lead to a significant decrease in net returns, especially in the long run, affecting your overall investment strategy and potential growth.
  3. Investors should consider the impact of fees on their investments, especially for long-term goals like retirement accounts, to optimize performance and maximize returns.
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The Bitcoin ETF launch: not an orange wave but not a sell the news either

235 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💰 Finance Bitcoin ETFs Investment Crypto
  1. The impact of the Bitcoin ETF launch is not visible yet, but the potential is huge.
  2. Short-term outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust are currently offsetting any major effects of the ETF launch.
  3. Once the transition stabilizes, more investors like BlackRock and Fidelity may bring steady inflows with the ETFs, potentially opening up Bitcoin to a broader investor base.

New Bitcoin ETFs, old coins

196 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Bitcoin Economy Investing Inflation Market Analysis
  1. New Bitcoin ETFs have captured a small percentage of the total supply of Bitcoin.
  2. Increased retail sales in December signal economic growth but also potential challenges for inflation.
  3. Top companies like Apple and Microsoft show there can be sustained growth at the top, with new catalysts like Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin never goes up in a straight line

432 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Federal Reserve Recession
  1. Bitcoin's price trajectory includes violent corrections even if the bear market is over.
  2. The Federal Reserve is actively reducing its balance sheet, but still has a long way to go post-COVID.
  3. The inversion of the yield curve suggests a potential recession within the next 6 months, which could impact investments like Bitcoin.

On-chain weakness into the Bitcoin ETFs launch

98 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🔮 Crypto ETFs
  1. The on-chain accumulation score did not support Bitcoin's price during the ETFs launch.
  2. There was no positive support in the accumulation trend for Bitcoin's price.
  3. It is important to adapt on-chain analysis as the volume of 'paper Bitcoin' transactions increases.

Bear market or bull market? For Bitcoin it can be hard to tell.

275 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Inflation Housing Market Economic Trends
  1. It's difficult to determine if Bitcoin or Ethereum are in a bear or bull market by just looking at monthly returns.
  2. Countries with high inflation rates might benefit from transitioning to crypto-based monetary systems.
  3. There are signs indicating a potential crash in the US housing market due to factors like artificially inflated prices and high mortgage rates.

Ecoinometrics - The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF: are we expecting too much?

255 implied HN points • 26 Jun 23
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency
  1. The launch of a BlackRock Bitcoin ETF may not have the same impact as the GLD ETF had on gold in the 2000s.
  2. History shows that macroeconomic factors played a significant role in driving gold's price, rather than just the introduction of an ETF.
  3. A spot Bitcoin ETF could attract new money into the space, but its impact may be influenced by broader economic conditions.