The hottest Macro Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Duration Risk

Doomberg ā€¢ 5884 implied HN points ā€¢ 03 Mar 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Social media and algorithms are amplifying propaganda about the war, feeding half-truths and shaping public opinion toward narrow narratives.
  2. Politicians are quick to use war-related shocks as political ammunition, blaming opponents for immediate pains like rising gas prices.
  3. The conflict has already moved energy markets sharplyā€”Brent/WTI spreads, LNG prices, and coal all jumped in daysā€”so short-term price action is a key signal for how broader economic fallout may unfold.

Roundup #77: The Fix-Everything Button

Noahpinion ā€¢ 16294 implied HN points ā€¢ 11 Feb 26
šŸ’¼ Business Macro
  1. Targeted fixes like fare gates can quickly and cheaply restore order in public spaces, cutting crime and cleanup costs so transit becomes usable again for most riders.
  2. The claim that AI is already displacing young college graduates is unclear; differences between unemployment and employment measures and sensitivity to broader economic swings make the evidence ambiguous right now.
  3. Trade and policy changes are reshaping supply chains: tariffs have reduced bilateral dependence on China without reviving U.S. manufacturing, and tighter skilled-visa rules are pushing companies to hire and expand operations abroad.

Copper: Imminent Supercycle or Mostly Hype?

Doomberg ā€¢ 516 implied HN points ā€¢ 20 Feb 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Copper was fairly inactive for about a decade, but interest and market attention have suddenly spiked.
  2. Thereā€™s growing hype that future supply will fall far short of demand, which supporters say could trigger a copper 'supercycle'.
  3. The full, in-depth analysis is behind a paid subscription, so accessing the complete argument requires upgrading.

Investing Update: Was That The Market Flush?

Spilled Coffee ā€¢ 52 implied HN points ā€¢ 21 Mar 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Stocks fell for a fourth straight week, with the S&P 500 down 1.9% and the Nasdaq and Dow about 2.1%, marking the longest losing streak in over a year.
  2. Gold plunged 11.1% this week ā€” its worst weekly drop since 1983 and on pace for its worst month since 2013 ā€” showing that even traditional safe havens can get crushed.
  3. Crypto and commodities diverged: Bitcoin dropped 5.7% on the week and is nearly 20% down yearā€‘toā€‘date, while oil remains the big winner, up more than 70% YTD.

Top Links 997 AI in the bond market. How the UK ended coal. Pasolini on Gramsci and Trotsky on Europe.

Chartbook ā€¢ 672 implied HN points ā€¢ 29 Jan 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Big Techā€™s move into AI is creating new risks for the bond market by concentrating data, models, and trading influence in a few platforms that could amplify shocks.
  2. The UKā€™s phase-out of coal shows how coordinated policy and market shifts can rapidly retire fossil fuel capacity and offers a practical model for energy transition elsewhere.
  3. Engagements like Pasolini on Gramsci and Trotsky on Europe show that cultural and political theory still shape how we understand national identity and continental politics, offering different lenses on power and change.
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Making Sense of the Markets Right Now

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe ā€¢ 1176 implied HN points ā€¢ 31 Dec 25
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Japanā€™s huge debt, rising interest rates, and a weakening yen risk triggering a global unwind of yen-funded carry trades that could force selling of US Treasuries and equities.
  2. Massive government overspending and money-supply expansion are debasing fiat currencies, pushing investors and central banks to buy physical gold as a long-term store of value and weakening the dollarā€™s dominance.
  3. Silver faces a real physical shortage because paper contracts far exceed available metal and industrial demand is rising, causing backwardation, squeeze risk, and extreme price volatility.

2026 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

Muleā€™s Musings ā€¢ 796 implied HN points ā€¢ 07 Jan 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. AI demand pushed bottlenecks below GPUs into memory and optics, causing HBM and DRAM shortages and sharply higher prices.
  2. Semiconductor equipment stocks rallied largely from multiple expansion and rising expectations, signaling the market expects a major WFE (wafer fab equipment) boom in 2026ā€“27.
  3. The AI buildout is heavily levered ā€” big borrowings, equity stakes, and circular financing are accelerating GPU and dataā€‘center purchases but also raise credit risk if markets or demand turn.

War Expands, Markets Fragile: Latest Portfolio Update Heading Into Monday

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 34 implied HN points ā€¢ 08 Mar 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. The conflict has expanded into a multi-front regional war with strikes on Iranā€™s infrastructure, attacks across the Gulf, and Hezbollah involvement, increasing the risk of a larger, prolonged confrontation.
  2. Iranā€™s leadership appears to be shifting after the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with his son Mojtaba reportedly poised to succeed and hardliners likely to retain control, creating major political uncertainty.
  3. A focused 26-stock portfolio is still outperforming the S&P 500 by roughly 5% year-to-date, but markets are on edge and investors should expect heightened volatility and sector-specific risks.

QTR & Adam Taggart: Private Credit, Valuations, Favorite Sectors

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 18 implied HN points ā€¢ 13 Mar 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Markets look stronger on the surface than they actually are, with QE, passive flows, and options activity propping up stretched valuations and hiding pockets of fragility.
  2. Private credit is under real stress ā€” many funds face redemptions, gated withdrawals, and questionable marks, creating the risk of a broader credit event.
  3. A more defensive stance is sensible: favor energy, utilities, and staples while selectively pursuing opportunities in nuclear, oil & gas, cybersecurity, psychedelics, and precious metals, and be cautious about overbuilt AI/software plays.

Investing Update: An Updated Look At My Portfolio

Spilled Coffee ā€¢ 20 implied HN points ā€¢ 14 Mar 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Major U.S. indexes slipped for a third straight week and the Nasdaq is noticeably down year-to-date, but the S&P 500 remains less than 5% from its all-time high.
  2. Commodities are the big story ā€” oil jumped sharply this week and is up roughly 72% year-to-date, which raises inflation concerns and could sway markets.
  3. Individual investor bearishness has surged, with nearly half expecting stocks to fall, yet most stocks haven't collapsed and the market's underlying bull trend still looks intact.

What War With Iran Means For Markets Monday

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 56 implied HN points ā€¢ 28 Feb 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. The U.S. and Israel have launched coordinated major strikes on Iran, including attacks in Tehran, and Iran has already retaliated with missiles and drones toward Israel and regional targets.
  2. Heavy, lastā€‘minute options and gold/silver buying suggest some traders were positioned ahead of the attacks, meaning order flow signaled the event before it was public.
  3. The situation has disrupted regional airspace and could push markets two ways: a wider escalation that spurs volatility, safeā€‘haven flows and commodity shocks, or a more contained conflict that lets markets stabilize.

Investing in the AI Future

A Biologist's Guide to Life ā€¢ 11 implied HN points ā€¢ 11 Mar 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. AI is basically digital automation that can massively scale the production of digital content and actions. More supply doesnā€™t guarantee value ā€” demand, human preferences, and political or social feedback will determine the real economic outcomes.
  2. Lasting business advantage comes from data moats, ecosystems, and distribution, not just big models or hardware. Open-source models, model compression, and competition can erode hardware/software moats and make many pure GPU bets risky.
  3. The best hedge is non-financial: invest in human advantages like relationships, health, and skills while diversifying attention and capital across other macro risks. Build human-centered products and networks that complement AI instead of relying solely on AI hype.

If You Only Watch One Thing In Today's Trading...

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 26 implied HN points ā€¢ 02 Mar 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Pre-market futures are signaling a clear risk-off move, with the Dow down about 1.2%, the S&P down ~1.1%, and the Nasdaq down ~1.4%.
  2. Gold is rallying roughly 3% as capital shifts into traditional hedges, showing a flight-to-safety reaction.
  3. There are two very different market paths possible this week, so how futures and sector action evolve will likely determine which direction markets take.

Late-Cycle Investment Theory: Winter 2025ā€“2026 in 10 Snapshots

European Straits ā€¢ 21 implied HN points ā€¢ 22 Feb 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. The US is showing early stagflation: growth is slowing, inflation remains sticky, and consumer spending is soft even as energy and tech costs rise with weak wage growth.
  2. China now operates at a civilisational scale that breaks ordinary economic frameworks, and it is building a massive electrified industrial base that could make it the leader of a new ā€˜electrostateā€™ era.
  3. The tech and financial cycles are shiftingā€”AI-driven hype looks like the wrong kind of bubble, while electrification (batteries, motors, power electronics) and tokenisation of finance are becoming the real structural forces reshaping industry and monetary order.

Investing Update: The Most Important Chart in the Market

Spilled Coffee ā€¢ 32 implied HN points ā€¢ 28 Feb 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Gold is soaring (+21.2% YTD) and other defensive assets like oil (+17.2% YTD) and bonds are outperforming, showing investors are favoring safety over growth.
  2. Market breadth is deteriorating even as headline indexes sit near highs ā€” technology, financials, and consumer discretionary are negative YTD and fewer than 60% of stocks in those sectors trade above their 50-day moving averages, signaling narrow leadership and fragility.
  3. Overall sentiment is risk-off: a VIX-based signal, the big YTD drop in Bitcoin (~25%), and close attention to names like Nvidia underline a cautious stance and active rotation away from growth.

The Last Living Value Investor's Portfolio

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 21 implied HN points ā€¢ 02 Mar 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. The market looks like a big bubble with stretched valuations that could snap back hard if conditions change. A fair-value PE near 17.6x implies roughly a 30% drop from current levels if earnings donā€™t rise.
  2. The portfolio stance is defensive and skeptical: largely on- and off-net short to protect against a bubble popping, though shorts can be temporarily covered for specific catalysts like geopolitical events.
  3. There are five deep-value long positions (two added recently), and three of those longs yield over 6% in dividends, reflecting a preference for high-yield, fundamentally cheap opportunities inside an overheated market.

Shit Is Getting Ugly In This One Sector I'd Avoid

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 33 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Feb 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. A specific market sector is beginning to show serious problems, and the early signs suggest the situation could worsen.
  2. One companyā€™s recent troubles are exposing cracks that hint the sectorā€™s foundation may be weak, which could spill over and hurt the broader market.
  3. This isnā€™t a brand-new concernā€”there have been repeated warnings for years that this sector could be a hidden time bomb.

The Great Software Repricing: A Framework

Enterprise AI Trends ā€¢ 105 implied HN points ā€¢ 16 Jan 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Investors are reā€‘rating SaaS because revenue is becoming less predictable ā€” usageā€‘based and AIā€‘agent pricing make earnings lumpier, so multiples can fall even if revenues rise.
  2. AI is changing the core value of traditional software: companies must shift from passive systems of record to active systems of action, and itā€™s unclear if those new models will be profitable or keep the same market size.
  3. The real bottleneck is hardware and demand uncertainty, not software supply, so worries about seat losses and customer need are driving a broad repricing of software valuations.

ā€œWe Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Wereā€: Part 1

Erdmann Housing Tracker ā€¢ 210 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Dec 25
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. A chronic housing supply shortage, not just short-term bubbles, is the main reason home prices and rents are high; cyclical swings now sit on top of a rising neutral price level.
  2. Measured home equity overstates real wealth because a large share of home prices is a rent premium created by scarcity, so Americans are poorer than headline net worth suggests.
  3. Policy choices and the postā€‘2008 lending shock reshaped who captured housing wealth and left many places and lowā€‘income households worse off, causing geographic sorting where families pay high rents to stay put.

Investing Update: Hedge Fund Buys & Holdings

Spilled Coffee ā€¢ 28 implied HN points ā€¢ 21 Feb 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. US stocks rallied last week ā€” the S&P gained 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.5%, with small caps (Russell 2000) leading the charge and now the clear YTD winner at +6.5%.
  2. A surprise Supreme Court decision struck down the tariff program and sparked buying, and markets held those gains even after a quick presidential response announcing a new 10% global tariff.
  3. Gold jumped sharply and is up 17.4% YTD, showing many investors are still hedging against uncertainty rather than fully committing to the equity rally.

Is This Anything?

Spilled Coffee ā€¢ 32 implied HN points ā€¢ 18 Feb 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Stock market technicals and economic indicators are both flashing bearish signals at the same time.
  2. New data since the prior update has strengthened the bearish case and drawn closer attention.
  3. That simultaneous bearishness is unusual, so itā€™s worth carefully analyzing what might happen next.

One ETF Up 13% This Year And Another I Like

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 20 implied HN points ā€¢ 23 Feb 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Iā€™m watching two nonā€‘U.S. investments: one is up about 13% this year versus roughly 1% for the S&P, and the other was added to reduce concentration risk and sharpen the thesis.
  2. The core idea is that U.S. stocks trade at very high valuations (around 40x earnings) while the rest of the world is much cheaper, so relative valuation could start to matter again.
  3. If we see dollar weakness, Fed easing, and modest capital rotation away from U.S. concentration, these nonā€‘U.S. ETFs should benefit, and itā€™s likely still early to own them.

News of the Week (February 5 - 9)

Stock Market Nerd ā€¢ 825 implied HN points ā€¢ 10 Feb 24
šŸ’¼ Business Macro
  1. Cloudflare provides web optimization and security, showing strong revenue growth and expanding services beyond traditional security tools like network firewalls
  2. Spotify had a mixed quarter, with growth seen in 2023 but missed revenue estimates for Q4, leading to a focus on evolving its operations
  3. Amazon plans cost cuts in its healthcare unit, while Duolingo faces the risk of potential disruption by emerging GenAI language translation technologies

News of the Week (January 22 - 26)

Stock Market Nerd ā€¢ 845 implied HN points ā€¢ 27 Jan 24
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Visa, American Express, and Capital One reported their credit earnings, beating revenue and earnings estimates.
  2. ServiceNow had a strong earnings review, showing growth in demand and margins.
  3. Intuitive Surgical's earnings review highlighted robust procedure growth, showcasing its dominance in robotic surgical systems.

How I'd Trade Gold And Silver Here

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 48 implied HN points ā€¢ 26 Jan 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Gold and silver have surged dramatically over the last year and a half, showing wild price action.
  2. The long-term bullish view on precious metals remains intact, with the recent rally not undermining the structural macro case.
  3. Short-term positioning is being reassessed, asking whether a short-term top is in and using four new data points to guide trading decisions.

Investing Update: An Opportunity In Software?

Spilled Coffee ā€¢ 44 implied HN points ā€¢ 31 Jan 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Materials and energy are getting big inflows and clean technical breakouts, so those sectors look poised to lead the next move higher.
  2. Semiconductors are signaling market leadership and could pull big-cap tech higher, while software is deeply out of favor with record-low hedge fund exposureā€”so it may be a rebound opportunity but still carries AI-related downside risk.
  3. Consumer confidence and labor-market indicators are weakening even as stocks hit highs, and with Februaryā€™s historical weakness after a positive January, economic pain reaching consumers could create downside risk.

"I Expect A Crash": Harris Kupperman

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 32 implied HN points ā€¢ 05 Feb 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. A big market crash is expected, but policymakers will keep injecting liquidity to prop up asset prices, so strategies that benefit from those liquidity pulses can still do well.
  2. Focus on transactional and croupier businessesā€”brokers, exchanges and other market intermediariesā€”because they profit from asset-bubble activity and the migration of wealthy capital.
  3. Favor precious metals and select emerging markets while avoiding many real-economy and tech bets, since policy appears aimed at maximizing asset values rather than broad economic prosperity.

"Chaos" Is Coming In 2026, Says Gold Guru Who Returned 174% In 2025

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 38 implied HN points ā€¢ 27 Jan 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Gold and silver rallied sharply in 2025, and precious metals miners massively outperformed the S&P and Nasdaq as investors rotated away from frothy tech stocks toward hard assets.
  2. Silver experienced a real supply shortage and heavy delivery demand in the paper futures market, highlighting a tight physical market that pushed prices higher.
  3. The Federal Reserve resumed big balance-sheet expansion in December 2025, renewing liquidity and debt concerns that are boosting demand for gold and could lead to market turbulence in 2026.

The Dam Has Burst In Silver And Gold - Now What?

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 51 implied HN points ā€¢ 14 Jan 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Silver and gold have surged sharply ā€” silver is up about 6% and trading near $91 an ounce, signaling a major breakout in precious metals.
  2. This move looks like a "blow-off valve" for excess money printing. Precious metals are absorbing the inflationary pressure that monetary expansion creates.
  3. Whether this is a short squeeze or a blow-off top is less important than the practical choice investors face about taking profits, and there are signs the run-up may not be over.

"The End Of The Monetary Road": Larry Lepard On Gold, Silver & Bitcoin

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 32 implied HN points ā€¢ 28 Jan 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. The global monetary system looks like it's nearing a major breaking point, with charts pointing to a secular change and rising monetary chaos.
  2. Gold and silver have already made stratospheric moves, and investors who positioned early saw huge gains (one fund reported about 170% in 2025).
  3. These market signals are getting little mainstream attention but deserve close watching into 2026, especially for precious metals and Bitcoin as potential hedges.

Investing Update: Who's Selling? You Need To Know

Spilled Coffee ā€¢ 24 implied HN points ā€¢ 07 Feb 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. The market is deeply split: the Dow hit a record 50,000 and the equal-weight S&P made a new high while the Nasdaq and software stocks plunged.
  2. Capital is rotating out of mega-cap tech, AI names, and crypto into value and cyclicals ā€” energy, materials, industrials, emerging markets, and small caps are leading.
  3. Breadth is expanding and ETF flows suggest a regime shift, and historically that kind of rotation (not just distribution) has preceded further gains over the next 6ā€“12 months.

All Time High Everything

Deep Pulusani - Risk ā€¢ 222 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Sep 25
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Asset prices are at all-time highs, so wages and earned income matter less for net wealth and rate cuts/additional liquidity mostly benefit asset owners while eroding purchasing power.
  2. Monetary policy and political incentives now push to support equity pricesā€”Fed easing, vast retirement savings into stocks, and global dollar flows (plus a weakening dollar) are lifting both equities and gold together.
  3. Demographics and fiscal choices are shifting wealth toward older generations and burdening the young, leaving three plausible paths ahead: sustained productivity-led gains, a tech/AI-driven bubble and bust, or an inflation/currency-driven market that masks real weakness.

The ā€œSell Americaā€ Trade Isnā€™t A One-Off

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 26 implied HN points ā€¢ 23 Jan 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening at the same time U.S. deficits are growing, driven by Japanā€™s rate normalization, higher European borrowing, and less Chinese dollar recycling. That mix points to a weaker dollar, higher long-term yields, and more reliance on policy support for the Treasury market.
  2. Geopolitical and trade shocks can quickly trigger a "Sell America" trade where stocks, Treasuries, and the dollar all fall together, because foreign holders can and will reprice political risk and divest U.S. assets. Even small divestments by big foreign investors signal that demand for Treasuries is a choice, not an automatic safe-haven.
  3. Because concentration risk in U.S. bonds is rising, investors should diversify into foreign stocks and bonds and consider physical gold for balance-sheet protection. The Fed's recent reserve-management purchases of T-bills show the market may be becoming increasingly dependent on central-bank support rather than organic global demand.

26 Stocks I'm Watching For 2026: Part 1

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 53 implied HN points ā€¢ 23 Dec 25
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. High-conviction thematic bets ā€” especially nuclear energy, precious metals, rare earths, and junior miners ā€” powered huge outperformance in 2025, showing the payoff from concentrated exposure to structural themes.
  2. Heading into 2026 there are five major risks to watch: a tapped-out American consumer and rising delinquencies, frothy AI-driven valuations, an erosion of the passive bid, cryptoā€™s growing systemic ties, and geopolitical moves pushing investors into hard assets.
  3. Two market regimes are plausible next year ā€” a liquidity-fueled bull where policymakers prop up nominal prices, or a reality-driven bear with deleveraging ā€” so focus on relative performance, favoring international/EM and metals as hedges rather than long-duration or richly priced U.S. equities.

Dry Powder

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 25 implied HN points ā€¢ 22 Jan 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Keep significant dry powderā€”cash or short-term investmentsā€”so you can act quickly on big opportunities or cover emergencies; if possible aim for millions, but at minimum have enough (e.g., $100k+) to avoid forced selling.
  2. US equities look richly priced by several measures (market-cap-to-GDP, Shiller PE, and heavy tech concentration), which raises the odds of low or negative returns in the years ahead.
  3. Investor complacency and low volatility mean now is a time to be defensive and plan to buy optionality during market stress (and consider writing optionality when volatility spikes), using cash to take advantage of forced-selling opportunities.

Is Silver At $200 Possible?

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 35 implied HN points ā€¢ 05 Jan 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. CME margin hikes can force leveraged longs to liquidate and cause sharp, temporary price drops, but that mainly transfers exposure from weak hands to deep pockets rather than fixing any physical metal shortage.
  2. Large COMEX deliveries and steady accumulation by wellā€‘capitalized players indicate real physical demand is being removed from the tradable float, tightening supply and making large upside moves ā€” including scenarios that point toward $100ā€“$200 silver ā€” plausible if those forces persist.
  3. Physical silver ownership is fundamentally different from trading paper because metal canā€™t be marginā€‘called, and geopolitical/policy trends plus valuation meanā€‘reversion arguments increase the odds that strategic hoarding could push silver into triple digits over time.

Investing Update: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Spilled Coffee ā€¢ 36 implied HN points ā€¢ 03 Jan 26
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. The market finished 2025 strongā€”S&P up about 16%, Nasdaq over 20%, and the Dow up 13%ā€”continuing a multiā€‘year bull run while still seeing volatility, including a roughly 19% drawdown.
  2. Returns were concentrated and mixed across sectors and stocks. Only two megaā€‘cap techs beat the S&P, three sectors outperformed, and winners included communication services, semiconductors, gold miners, metals, clean energy, and silver.
  3. Active calls and stock picking paid off: a yearā€‘end S&P forecast landed within 1% and an actively managed portfolio outperformed the S&P, showing active management can succeed but is hard to do consistently.

Why Silver Is Going Batshit Crazy Today

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 43 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Dec 25
šŸ’° Finance Macro
  1. Silver is spiking wildly today, with an unusually large and sudden move in silver prices.
  2. A market-driven theory is proposed to explain the surge, suggesting this move may be caused by identifiable forces rather than random volatility.
  3. Gold is likely to follow once the silver-to-gold ratio consolidates, so further gold gains could come after that ratio settles.