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Artificial intelligence and "big data" cannot replace public opinion polls | #213 - April 10, 2023

G. Elliott Morris's Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 10 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Artificial intelligence and big data cannot fully replace public opinion polls, as they rely on polls for calibration and may not be as reliable for all groups.
  2. Changes in polling methods, like switching from phone to online surveys, can impact results, highlighting the importance of consistency over time.
  3. Studies show genuine change in attitudes, like increasing racial liberalism, but also caution against biases affecting survey responses.

August 1, 2025

Letters from an American • 23 implied HN points • 02 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The latest job report showed a big drop in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added in July compared to the expected 115,000. This suggests the economy has been losing strength for a while.
  2. Trump fired the commissioner of labor statistics after the numbers were released, claiming they were manipulated. This has raised concerns about the integrity of economic data under his administration.
  3. Trump made a provocative statement about positioning nuclear submarines in response to comments from Russia. Some believe this may serve as a distraction from bad news regarding the economy and his controversies.

The Outer Borough Mind

Political Currents by Ross Barkan • 89 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Donald Trump embodies the outer borough mindset, which contrasts with the Manhattan elite. Many people from Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx feel a sense of envy and resentment toward Manhattan.
  2. Trump's desire to break into Manhattan comes from his upbringing in a wealthy, but somewhat isolated, neighborhood. He sees Manhattan as a place of power that he can never fully belong to.
  3. The outer borough communities are changing politically, with many people feeling abandoned by traditional parties. Trump's message resonates with them, as they see him as a reflection of their struggles and ambitions.

Vox populi, vox dei (as Elon likes to say)

Unreported Truths • 67 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Many readers want direct questions asked at the White House, highlighting a desire for transparency.
  2. The author is attempting to secure a press pass to the White House to ask questions that not everyone is touching on.
  3. There's interest in exploring personal stories and issues, like drug addiction, rather than just standard policy questions.

August 10, 2025

Letters from an American • 21 implied HN points • 11 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. A group is suing the DOJ and FBI to release files related to Epstein, linking Trump to the case. They believe public interest means the files should be made available.
  2. Trump is making bold claims about increasing safety in Washington, D.C., despite crime rates dropping to a 30-year low. He suggests taking drastic actions to control the city.
  3. There's concern over Trump's handling of international relations, especially regarding statements made about a ceasefire with Russia. Misunderstandings have raised doubts about his diplomatic abilities.
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War, War, War

Tessa Fights Robots • 27 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Many people feel a sense of ongoing conflict in the world today. It's like we are aware of issues but feel powerless to stop them.
  2. The feeling of being overwhelmed by the situation is common among regular individuals. We see the problems but feel trapped by existing systems.
  3. There's a call for unity and a refusal to support those who seem to benefit from conflict. The idea is to stand together against those who laugh at our struggles.

July 28, 2025

Letters from an American • 22 implied HN points • 29 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Many Republican leaders are taking positions that go against the facts, which could hurt their credibility. For example, some leaders are twisting stories about who is responsible for certain claims and actions.
  2. There are serious concerns about health insurance coverage as proposed budget cuts may lead to millions losing their health care. Critics worry that rising premiums could push people away from necessary health services.
  3. Voter backlash is growing against Republican lawmakers who try to overturn laws approved by citizens, like expanding Medicaid and protecting abortion rights. This shows that voters are frustrated and may change how they engage with politics.

Five things I liked from Donald Trump's first week as President

Unreported Truths • 63 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Trump's immigration policies focused on stricter deportations, which some believe are necessary to manage the system better.
  2. Federal workers are now required to return to the office, ensuring they fulfill their job duties rather than working from home.
  3. He signed an executive order to protect free speech and prevent government censorship, which many see as an important measure for citizens.

One day, when it's safe...

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 65 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. People often only speak out against wrongdoing when it's safe for them to do so. This can lead to many being silent until it's too late to change anything.
  2. Historical wrongs and crimes can come back to haunt societies and countries. Actions taken for power and wealth don't just disappear; they often return to affect those who enabled them.
  3. The ongoing conflict and loss of life in places like Gaza show that history often repeats itself. The consequences of violence and neglect are felt long after the immediate events.

July 20, 2025

Letters from an American • 23 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Many Americans disapprove of Trump's immigration policies and fear mass deportations. Recent polls show a significant amount of opposition to his actions.
  2. Trump's popularity is declining, with people believing his policies have harmed them more than helped. This includes negative views on tariffs and overall job approval.
  3. There is growing public demand for transparency regarding the Epstein case, with a large majority wanting all related documents released by the government.

July 12, 2025

Letters from an American • 24 implied HN points • 13 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. FEMA struggled to answer emergency calls after recent floods in Texas due to budget cuts, receiving significantly fewer calls in the days following the crisis.
  2. Public opinion on immigration has shifted, with many Americans now believing that immigrants are beneficial to the country, despite strict policies from the current administration.
  3. The Trump administration is facing backlash for its handling of immigration and its connection to past issues, including the Jeffrey Epstein case, which has stirred controversy in the political landscape.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-11-22 Fr

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 76 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Real wages for non-managerial workers are growing stronger now than in the past due to a tight labor market. This growth has continued despite challenges like the pandemic and inflation.
  2. Media sources greatly influence people's opinions and political views, creating a divide in beliefs. Many Americans see their reality differently based on their news consumption.
  3. There are different kinds of populist leaders, but not all fit neatly into traditional categories. The motivations behind their actions can vary widely, affecting how they connect with their supporters.

Trump Prepares Washington, DC For The Public Backlash.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 18 implied HN points • 11 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. People are really upset with both the Democrats and Republicans. Many think the next elections will be a big chance for independent candidates.
  2. There's a strong feeling that the way politics is handled now isn't working, and protests may become more common as people demand change.
  3. A lot of voters are registering as independents instead of sticking with the usual parties. This shift shows a growing desire for new ideas and leadership outside traditional politics.

Sunday Strip: Run Zebra Run

Who is Robert Malone • 30 implied HN points • 08 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. California is heavily funding NGOs that are organizing protests against ICE, spending tens of millions of dollars.
  2. Current riots in LA may cause more people to reconsider their views on illegal immigration and the Democrat party's stance on the issue.
  3. There are concerns that the protests could become increasingly violent, potentially driving more people away from progressive politics.

July 14, 2025

Letters from an American • 23 implied HN points • 15 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. A recent poll shows that most Americans believe immigration is good for the country and support paths to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, especially those who came as children.
  2. The history of U.S. immigration laws is complex, with past laws often promoting discrimination while failing to address current needs for labor and family reunification.
  3. Despite political debates, the American public seems to want real solutions to the issues in immigration law rather than strict border control and deportation policies.

July 13, 2025

Letters from an American • 23 implied HN points • 14 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. A recent DOJ memo said there is no evidence of a client list involving Jeffrey Epstein. This surprised many who believed there would be more disclosures.
  2. Trump's attempts to downplay the Epstein situation only drew more attention to it, leading some of his supporters to feel frustrated and betrayed.
  3. As questions about Epstein linger, Trump's supporters are starting to turn against him, which could weaken his influence in future elections.

June 14, 2025

Letters from an American • 28 implied HN points • 15 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Sharing personal stories and photos can create a meaningful record of events like protests.
  2. Art, like Peter Ralston's work, can powerfully connect people to themes of resilience and patriotism.
  3. Displaying support for causes collectively can strengthen community bonds and awareness.

The Borjas-Caplan Immigration Debate

Bet On It • 75 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The debate highlights different views on immigration research. Borjas focuses on the flaws in the research rather than saying immigration is outright bad.
  2. Borjas believes that gut feelings about immigration policies are valid, even if they lead to stricter immigration rules.
  3. The author argues that Borjas has a misguided understanding of ideology, launching a critique against relying solely on instinct over informed decisions.

Happy Halloween/U.S. Presidential Election

Bet On It • 80 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. It’s important to think about the connection between Halloween and the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election. Both events bring out strong emotions and opinions in people.
  2. A lot of people feel they might lose no matter who wins an election, which can create a sense of hopelessness.
  3. Bias can affect how we see problems and solutions, and being aware of that can help us think more clearly.

A veteran (and new federal employee) offers her view on the chaos the sudden government downsizing has unleashed

Unreported Truths • 55 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The current government downsizing has left many federal employees feeling anxious and uncertain about their jobs, especially those hired for remote work. It's tough for them without clear answers about what will happen next.
  2. Not all federal workers are lazy or incompetent. Many work hard and do their jobs well, even if the general opinion sometimes paints them in a negative light.
  3. The extreme measures being taken to cut government jobs may have long-term repercussions. It’s important to find a balance instead of swinging to the opposite extreme and making things worse.

What About All the Mistakes Lindsey Halligan DIDN'T Make?

I Might Be Wrong • 6 implied HN points • 21 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Lindsey Halligan made significant mistakes in her first day as a U.S. attorney, which included filing contradictory indictments and misattributing statements.
  2. A federal judge pointed out that Halligan mishandled important legal information and didn't properly present evidence to the grand jury.
  3. The overall focus seems to be on her errors rather than any potential successes or positive aspects of her role.

The 2025 Horse Race

Pizza Party • 28 implied HN points • 28 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The author feels a personal connection to the theme of journalism and censorship, using a horse race metaphor. They compare the competition between journalism and sovereignty to a race where sovereignty ultimately wins.
  2. The situation highlights the struggles of journalists facing pressures from those in power, making it hard for them to do their jobs. This reflects on the broader challenges of freedom of the press in current times.
  3. The author expresses a sense of loss and uncertainty about the future of journalism, especially after losing their job and witnessing the challenges faced by their former boss. This personal experience adds emotional weight to the commentary on press freedom.

Sometimes Trump Stonewalls Because He's Just a Moron

I Might Be Wrong • 6 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Trump's reaction to the Epstein files suggests he may be hiding something serious. People often assume guilt when someone behaves suspiciously or defensively.
  2. There are reasons to believe the Epstein files might not reveal as much as people expect. Sometimes, Trump's actions seem irrational, making it hard to trust his reasoning.
  3. When faced with potential scandals, Trump often chooses to stonewall instead of being open. This behavior can make him look more guilty than if he just addressed concerns directly.

Sorry everyone, I know I still owe you a response on the Gaza piece, but I've been distracted fighting with Holocaust (quasi) deniers and the Jews who defend them

Unreported Truths • 20 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Sometimes, war is necessary even though it puts civilians at risk. It's a tough choice countries have to make.
  2. The importance of understanding history is crucial. Denying or downplaying events like the Holocaust can lead to dangerous ideas.
  3. It's essential for nations to follow the laws of war. Protecting civilians should always be a priority, even during conflict.

Sunday Strip: Don't Believe...

Who is Robert Malone • 47 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Always question what you see and hear; not everything is as it seems. It's important to think critically about information.
  2. There's a lot of drama around political figures, which can lead to confusion about their true intentions. Stay informed to understand better.
  3. Emus and their eggs can be surprising! Knowing the real facts can change what we think we know about nature and food.

June 24, 2025

Letters from an American • 24 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, but soon after, violence resumed, raising questions about his claims. Many were surprised by the announcement and its reality seemed quite different.
  2. Polls show that most Americans disapprove of the military action against Iran, indicating a divide in public opinion about the situation.
  3. There is growing concern over harsh immigration detention conditions in the U.S., as numbers reach record highs, with calls for better oversight and conditions for detainees.

Carney Gives Cash To Nazis In The Ukraine And Supports Trump's Fascist Regime Change In Iran.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 24 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Marc Carney is criticized for supporting controversial funding decisions, particularly related to groups in Ukraine and Iran. This support raises concerns about moral and ethical implications.
  2. There is frustration over rising housing costs in Canada, linked to Carney's banking history and policies. Many feel these decisions have negatively impacted everyday Canadians.
  3. Calls for accountability are made against Carney and other political figures for their roles in international conflicts, highlighting a desire for justice and transparency in government actions.

The Trans Bathroom Issue and Trans Locker Room Issue are Two Different Issues

I Might Be Wrong • 7 implied HN points • 07 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Bathrooms and locker rooms are different spaces, and we should treat the issues surrounding them separately. People have different expectations in each setting.
  2. A good bathroom experience should be uneventful; nobody wants to have a memorable or awkward moment while using the restroom.
  3. Talking about personal exposure in public can be uncomfortable, but it’s important to discuss these issues honestly to advocate for everyone's comfort and rights.

Commentator

Castalia • 119 implied HN points • 25 Oct 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Democrats are struggling with messaging and need to connect better with regular voters. They should simplify their communication and focus more on issues that matter to the public, like the cost of living.
  2. Support for Ukraine could weaken if Republicans gain control in Congress, as leaders like Kevin McCarthy show signs of wanting to reduce aid. This might change the U.S. stance on international support for Ukraine.
  3. Canada's assisted suicide program is raising serious concerns as people are being approved for it too easily, even for non-terminal conditions. This raises ethical questions about the government's role in citizen's deaths.

Election Update #10 Harris Bounces Back

Phillips’s Newsletter • 75 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Recently, there's been a boost in confidence about Harris' campaign, even though it might not be fully backed by solid evidence.
  2. It's important to be aware of your media bubble. It can shape what stories you see and make you believe things that might not be true.
  3. Trusting only the sources that confirm what you want to believe can lead to being misled, so it's good to check various viewpoints.

THE KING AND I

Dana’s Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 07 May 23
🌍 World Politics Public Opinion
  1. King Charles III was crowned in an elaborate ceremony with traditional royal elements.
  2. Despite the spectacle, many people, especially younger generations, are indifferent towards the monarchy.
  3. The coronation raised questions about the relevance and cost of having a monarch in modern times.

America Needs a Sludge Czar

The Elbow • 39 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Sludge refers to annoying and cumbersome processes that can have significant psychological and economic impacts.
  2. A Sludge Czar is proposed as a solution to tackle sludge issues and increase public awareness.
  3. The Sludge Czar would aim to address various everyday inconveniences like waiting on hold for customer service and dealing with unnecessary paperwork.

Family faces 18th parole hearing for killer of Frank Carlson, asks for public's help

Gotham by Susan Dyer Reynolds • 39 implied HN points • 13 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. A family has been fighting for justice for nearly five decades after a brutal murder and torture.
  2. Despite a guilty verdict and a death sentence, the killer has been eligible for parole, facing multiple hearings.
  3. The family and the public continue to seek support to keep the killer behind bars through public comments and letters to the parole board.

Unauthorized Use of my Name

Letters from an American • 44 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The author has not supported or endorsed any events using their name. They want to make it clear that they do not know the event organizers.
  2. If the author decides to support something, they will personally announce it through their own social media or posts.
  3. The author is addressing confusion among people who are reaching out and clarifying their stance on the unauthorized use of their name.

June 26, 2025

Letters from an American • 22 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The recent military strikes against Iran didn't fully destroy their nuclear program, according to some officials. It seems like the situation was exaggerated in the media and by the government.
  2. Voter support for a Republican budget bill that benefits wealthy Americans is dropping significantly. Many people are unhappy about cuts to public assistance and the growing wealth gap.
  3. There's rising frustration with politics, as seen in the election of more progressive candidates like Zohran Mamdani. Many voters now want change and a focus on issues like taxes and immigration.

Embrace The Nuance

Investing 101 • 64 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. People often struggle to find a middle ground in discussions, especially around controversial topics like politics. It’s important to be open to nuanced ideas rather than sticking to extreme views.
  2. In politics, many people feel pressured to choose sides, but embracing contradictions can lead to a deeper understanding. Having nuanced beliefs allows for more personal growth and connection to issues.
  3. With the fast spread of information today, understanding the complexities behind issues is more challenging. It’s essential to ask good questions and seek a thorough understanding to navigate through the noise.

June 10, 2025

Letters from an American • 24 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. President Trump is using the issue of immigration to silence critics and control protests. He has threatened severe actions against those who oppose his policies.
  2. Local officials believe that Los Angeles can manage the situation without federal intervention, but Trump continues to push a narrative of crisis and violence.
  3. Governor Newsom has condemned Trump's actions, warning that they represent a broader threat to democracy and urging people to stand up against authoritarianism.

The Dilemma of the Pacifist Lion

Breaking Smart • 21 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Leaders often struggle to balance their desire for peace with the need to show strength. This can lead to awkward situations where they want to appear strong while promoting non-violence.
  2. Actions speak louder than words, especially in tough situations. Doing something significant, like military action, may seem necessary for leaders to prove their strength.
  3. The unpredictable outcomes of bold decisions create doubt, and even those in power may act against their perceived nature to manage expectations and counter narratives about their reliability.