The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top World Politics Topics

The Housing Shortage by Metro Area, Part 4

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Real Estate
  1. There is a housing shortage, which means there are not enough homes available for people who need them. This shortage can lead to high prices and long waiting lists for affordable housing.
  2. When rent control is put in place, it may help some tenants afford their homes but can also lead to declining quality of living conditions. Property owners often stop maintaining their properties, which can create additional problems.
  3. Access to mortgage loans is important for homebuyers. If people can't get loans to buy homes, it reduces the amount of housing being supplied in the market, contributing to the overall shortage of available homes.

New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 25 Aug 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. New home sales in July were at a rate of 652,000, showing a small dip from June but still below last year's numbers.
  2. The inventory of new homes for sale is quite high, with a supply of 9.2 months, which is more than what is usually considered normal.
  3. Prices for new homes have dropped by 12% from their peak, partly because of changes in the types of homes being sold.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

The Housing Shortage by Metro Area

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Real Estate
  1. There's a big housing shortage in many cities, meaning not enough homes are available for everyone who needs one. Building homes could help to lower rising rents and prices.
  2. The real estate market is affected by restrictions on building new homes. If these rules were eased, more homes could be built, which would make housing more affordable.
  3. Investing in new housing could change a lot financially. It could lower the overall value of land but make living situations better for many people, even if it seems risky at first.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The serious delinquency rates for single-family loans from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remained stable in June. This means that fewer people are seriously behind on their mortgage payments compared to previous years.
  2. Freddie Mac's multi-family delinquency rates are at their highest since the housing market crash. This indicates some challenges in the multi-family housing sector.
  3. Historical data shows that delinquency rates peaked significantly during the housing bubble and the pandemic, but current rates are lower than those high points.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index dropped by 0.23% in May but is still up 2.2% compared to last year. This shows that while prices are currently declining, there has been some growth over the past year.
  2. Florida and Texas are experiencing significant price declines, with 17 out of the 30 cities with the biggest drops located in these states. This trend indicates that real estate markets in these areas are facing challenges.
  3. Overall, 31 states and Washington D.C. have seen house prices fall since their peak. With inventory increasing and low sales, housing price growth may slow down even more in the future.

California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 4th Straight Month

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 20 Aug 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. California home sales have dropped for the fourth month in a row, going down by 4.1% compared to last year. This shows a clear slowdown in the housing market.
  2. The median home price in California also fell for the third month straight, reaching a low of $884,050. This drop is unusual for this time of year and suggests that fewer people are buying homes.
  3. Active listings of homes for sale are at a 69-month high, increasing by 37.7% from a year ago. However, the rate of new listings is slowing down, which could indicate a shift in the market.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The National Association of Realtors will report on January home sales, which are expected to decrease. People are anticipating a drop from December's sales figures.
  2. In January 2024, home sales were reported at around 4.00 million, showing a trend in sales that people are keeping an eye on.
  3. Data comparisons from January 2019 will also be included, helping to understand how the market has changed over time.

New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. New home sales in May 2025 dropped to an annual rate of 623,000, which is lower than previous months and last year.
  2. There is an increase in the supply of new homes available, with nearly 10 months' worth of inventory on the market, which is much higher than normal.
  3. The prices of new homes have decreased, with a 7% drop from the peak, partly due to a change in the types of homes being sold.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.93 million SAAR in June; Unchanged YoY

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Existing-home sales dropped by 2.7% in June, totaling 3.93 million sales at an annual rate. This marks five months where sales have not increased compared to the previous year.
  2. The inventory of unsold homes fell slightly, but it increased by 15.9% from last year. This suggests that while there are more homes available now, it hasn't translated into more sales.
  3. Median home prices went up by 2.0% compared to last year, indicating that while sales may be slowing, the prices for available homes are still climbing.

Goldman's Mid-Year Housing Outlook

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. High mortgage rates are keeping many homeowners from selling their homes, resulting in low existing home sales. People are reluctant to move because they don't want to lose their lower mortgage rates.
  2. The construction of new single-family homes is also expected to decline due to lower demand and increased competition from existing homes on the market.
  3. Home prices are likely to rise very slowly or remain stable over the next year, with some forecasts suggesting slight declines in prices due to rising inventory.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 14 Aug 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The housing market has seen a big increase in inventory this year, with listings up 24.8% compared to last year. This means buyers have more options now.
  2. Sales of existing homes are down slightly, creating pressure on prices, but there won't be a massive increase in distressed sales.
  3. New homebuilders are facing challenges with many unsold homes and are lowering prices to compete with the existing inventory.

Dirty Skylines and Snow Washing

Diane Francis • 319 implied HN points • 16 Sep 21
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Real Estate
  1. Many luxurious properties in the U.S. are bought with 'dirty money' from criminals and corrupt officials. These people use sneaky ways to hide their identities and wash their money clean.
  2. Real estate professionals, like lawyers and agents, often help these criminals by setting up secretive companies that hide ownership. This makes it really hard for law enforcement to catch them.
  3. There's a big problem with money laundering globally, which affects housing affordability and national security. Countries need better rules and cooperation to stop this flow of illegally obtained money.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Housing starts in May were lower than expected, at an annual rate of 1.256 million, which shows a decrease from both April and last year.
  2. Single-family housing starts went up slightly, but overall they are down from last year, while multi-family starts are doing better this year.
  3. Building permits also dropped a bit, indicating that new construction might slow down in the coming months.

Question #8 for 2024: How much will Residential investment change in 2024? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2024?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 191 implied HN points • 03 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The post discusses questions about residential investment, housing starts, and new home sales in 2024.
  2. The author is planning to share insights and possibly predictions for each of these real estate aspects.
  3. Readers can access the full content with a 7-day free trial of the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

Regional Sales Trends

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Regional sales trends in the housing market can provide important insights, even when traditional data sources seem less useful.
  2. Exploring regional data might reveal trends that are missed when looking at national averages.
  3. Understanding local market conditions can help inform better decisions in the real estate sector.

Why you'll hate my investment advice

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Understanding the basics of an investment can clarify why certain opinions might seem oversimplified or dismissive at times.
  2. It's important to recognize different perspectives in investing, as they can affect how one interprets market issues.
  3. Sharing investment strategies can help others see the reasoning behind specific choices and thought processes.

June 2025 Residential Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 24 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Home sales have been flat and inventory has been rising for about 8 years. This long trend can be surprising and hard to understand.
  2. Looking closely at housing data requires careful interpretation; many factors like COVID can distort the view.
  3. Understanding the housing market involves recognizing patterns that might not change quickly, which can be frustrating for those expecting quick shifts.

A Brief Technical Review of the Alternative Housing Story

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Cities like Los Angeles face housing supply issues due to low permit approvals compared to cities like Atlanta and Phoenix.
  2. National housing market statistics can be misleading as there are extreme regional differences.
  3. The myth of a credit bubble causing price bubbles is debunked, with evidence showing price spikes before rise in debt in housing markets.

Builder Incentives and Profits

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Builders like Lennar are using cash discounts to sell homes, which can create a misleading price for buyers. Buyers may end up paying more due to high 'menu prices' even if they think they are getting a good deal.
  2. There are risks for mortgaged buyers when home prices fall. They might be stuck with a mortgage amount that is higher than the real value of their home, leading to losses or foreclosure situations.
  3. Unlike in past housing crises, current market conditions have regulators and the Federal Reserve focused on avoiding a housing crash. The situation today is more stable, reducing the chances of a major crisis like in 2008.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011”

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Home price growth was the slowest since 2011, ending the year at just 3.4%. This is significantly lower than the growth rates seen in previous years.
  2. The number of homes for sale increased by 22% in 2024, which is the highest level of inventory since mid-2020. Some markets are even back to pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Mortgage delinquencies have started to rise, especially with FHA and VA loans. This suggests potential issues in mortgage performance could become more prominent in 2025.

The Fed and Lennar

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Inflation is still high, which affects the economy and people's spending. It's a major concern for many people right now.
  2. The Fed raises borrowing costs to control inflation, but this can also influence mortgage rates. Higher borrowing costs usually mean higher mortgage rates.
  3. There's a belief that when the Fed slows down on rate cuts, mortgage rates will rise further, impacting people's desire to buy homes. However, this idea may not be as straightforward as it seems.

November 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Mortgage rates are really important for the housing market. They can greatly affect both people's ability to buy homes and the rate of construction jobs.
  2. Tracking construction employment can give insights into the housing market trends. It’s a clear indicator of how the market is responding to interest rates.
  3. There are ongoing challenges in the housing market, and the data can sometimes seem tricky. It's like a game where understanding the numbers is key to navigating the situation.

June 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker and Inflation Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Core inflation has stayed close to the Fed's 2% target for 36 months, showing stability even as jobs have held steady.
  2. Currently, home prices are much higher than normal due to supply issues, with the average home significantly overpriced in major metro areas.
  3. Access to credit is also a big problem, lowering home prices but complicating the supply situation, making it hard for buyers.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Existing home sales increased for three months in a row, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic. December's sales were about 21% below the average from 2017 to 2019.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is rising sharply in regions like Florida and Texas, with a year-over-year increase of 17.5%. This suggests more options for buyers in those areas.
  3. There were more new listings in December compared to last year, but they are still at historically low levels. The increase in new listings may hint at some recovery in the housing market.

July 2025 Homebuilder Thoughts

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The housing market could be misjudging homebuilders, suggesting a chance for profit. It's important to pay attention to the factors affecting builders' performance.
  2. There may be systematic issues in how the market is evaluating the homebuilding sector. Understanding these issues can help in making informed decisions.
  3. Investors should consider the potential for trading gains by looking deeper into the housing market trends and builder performance.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 4 Leamer's Counsel

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Housing start numbers are key indicators of upcoming recessions. When fewer homes are being built, it's often a sign that an economic downturn is near.
  2. The Federal Reserve may have waited too long to react to a housing market that was overheating, which ultimately could have led to more severe economic issues later on.
  3. In cities with strict building regulations, rising housing prices are often due to limited supply rather than demand. This creates significant issues like rent inflation and forced migration.

Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 3

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The rise in home prices is mainly due to obstruction of urban housing rather than urban productivity.
  2. High urban rents have increased nationally post-2008 due to federal lending policies lowering housing production everywhere.
  3. Rising rents explain almost all of the increase in home prices, with excess rent accounting for a significant portion of residential real estate value.