The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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When we lost our minds: Pt. 2 Respecting the Timeline

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Home prices in cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas showed clear patterns before and after the 2008 housing crisis. They experienced a boom, then a downturn when lending tightened.
  2. During the crisis, low-tier home prices dropped more than high-tier prices. This happened because many poor families couldn't afford housing and had to move around or suffer from rising rents.
  3. Areas like Miami and Tampa had different dynamics, with more separation in low-tier prices before the crisis. They faced ongoing housing shortages, causing continual price increases even after the market correction.

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Current mortgage rates remain high, especially above 6%, making it hard for homeowners to sell and buy new homes. Most people with lower rates don't want to move because their payments would go up.
  2. More than half of all outstanding loans are now under 4%, showing how many people got favorable rates during the pandemic. This is a big reason why available homes for sale are currently low.
  3. Market sentiment is hesitant, with many potential buyers waiting for mortgage rates to drop into the 5% range before they consider purchasing a home.

Mortgages Outstanding by Credit Score

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. After 2008, the number of mortgages given to people with lower credit scores dropped significantly compared to those with higher scores. This changed the lending landscape quite a bit.
  2. High real estate prices are affecting mortgage access more than the other way around. Many lower credit score borrowers are struggling to get mortgages, leading to higher rents and home prices.
  3. The tightening of lending rules since 2008 has made it harder for many people to become homeowners, leading to a market where only certain buyers can take advantage of low interest rates and good prices.

House Hacking a $1.3m Duplex in SF

The Leonard Letter • 39 implied HN points • 10 Jul 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. House hacking involves living in one unit and renting out the rest.
  2. Consider key expenses like mortgage, insurance, and taxes when analyzing a property deal.
  3. Getting creative with property use may be necessary to make a house hack work in expensive cities like San Francisco.
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"Suburbanization" and Detroit's Davison & Banglatown Neighborhoods

The Chargeback • 39 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Ownership of Detroit property appears to be growing in certain Michigan cities like Warren, Hamtramck, and Sterling Heights.
  2. There is a trend of immigrant communities from Detroit neighborhoods like Davison and Banglatown moving to suburban cities for various reasons.
  3. High concentrations of rental properties owned by Detroit residents are observed in Davison and Banglatown, with potential ownership movements to suburban cities.

Apartment Crisis Coming?

Pinecone Weekly Brief • 39 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. There may be a coming apartment crisis that could impact multifamily and macro industries.
  2. Consider subscribing to Pinecone Weekly Brief for more insights and a 7-day free trial.
  3. Existing paid subscribers can sign in for full access to the post archives.

Office Sales Roundup

Warden Capital • 39 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Recent office investment sales market has shown positive trends after a period of minimal activity.
  2. Notable sales like RBC Gateway in Minneapolis and Boston Bunch in downtown Boston highlight strong values and positive outcomes.
  3. Buyers acquiring large office deals across the country provide clarity on pricing levels and signal potential market recovery.

NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q2

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The apartment market conditions are getting tighter, which means it's becoming more competitive to find available units.
  2. There is slightly more activity in buying and selling apartments, signaling some optimism despite overall uncertainty in the economy.
  3. While borrowing money for apartments is improving, getting equity financing is still a bit harder than it was before.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Existing-home sales rose by 0.8% in May compared to April, but they are still down 0.7% from last year. This trend indicates a mixed market performance.
  2. The total housing inventory increased significantly, showing a rise of 20.3% year-over-year. More choices for buyers could ease some pressure on the market.
  3. The months of unsold inventory went up to 4.6 months, which means houses are staying on the market longer. This level is higher than before the pandemic, suggesting a shift in buyer demand.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 148 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The 2-part overview offers insights into the current state of the housing market for mid-February 2024, covering aspects like house prices, sales, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 2.8% year-over-year in January 2024, showing a slight increase from the previous year's record low for January, potentially signaling an increase in overall inventory for the market.
  3. It's important to note that December and January are typically the weakest months for new listings, and while new listings are expected to show year-over-year growth in 2024, March data will provide a clearer picture of their proximity to normal levels.

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. New home sales dropped to an annual rate of 657,000 in January, marking a decline from previous months. This shows a slowdown in the housing market compared to last year.
  2. The average price of new homes has decreased by 5.8% from its highest point due to changes in what types of homes are selling.
  3. There is a high inventory of homes available, with a supply of 9 months, which is more than the usual range of 4 to 6 months. This indicates more choices for buyers but also suggests a slower market.

California Home Sales "Sputter" in May; 4th Look at Local Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 20 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. California home sales decreased for the third month in a row, highlighting reduced buyer confidence due to high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.
  2. Active home inventory reached a 67-month high, with a significant year-over-year increase in available listings, suggesting more choices for buyers.
  3. Despite a minor decline in home prices, the market is still facing challenges, with many areas reporting fewer homes sold compared to previous years.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. In June, home sales were up 4.7% compared to last year, marking a recovery from the previous month's drop. More working days in June helped boost these numbers.
  2. New listings have increased by 5.0% year-over-year, but they are still lower than levels from June 2019. This indicates a mixed trend in the market.
  3. Inventory levels rose by 26.2% compared to last year, suggesting that more homes are becoming available. This change is happening more than usually expected for this time of year.

Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Builder sentiment in the housing market is low, reaching one of the lowest levels since 2012. This means builders are feeling less confident about selling new homes.
  2. There has been a noticeable increase in price incentives from builders as the housing market slows down. This suggests they are trying to attract buyers who might be hesitant.
  3. Overall, the housing market is softening, which could impact future construction and development plans.

October 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Home construction costs have risen over time, but the price hikes for new homes are affected more by land costs and less by construction costs. This means that it's getting harder for average families to afford homes, as they are paying more for existing homes due to limited supply.
  2. In higher-end markets, the quality and size of new homes aren’t keeping up with rising incomes. Despite inflation, average people are struggling more because the character of new homes is changing despite high land values.
  3. The overall housing market reflects different trends for rich and average buyers. Wealthier buyers usually track new home costs, while average buyers feel the squeeze from existing home prices influenced by constrained supply.

Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. The apartment vacancy rate rose to 6.1% in Q4 2024, which is the highest since 2011. This increase shows that more people are leaving their apartments.
  2. The office vacancy rate set a new record at 20.4% in Q4 2024. This suggests many businesses are not needing as much office space due to changes in work habits.
  3. Even with rising vacancies, rents for apartments are still high, showing a mixed rental market. People are still wanting places to live, but it’s taking longer to fill those spaces.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 3.8% year-over-year in November, indicating rising home prices. This is a good sign for homeowners as it shows property values are generally going up.
  2. House prices rose by 0.3% in November according to the FHFA index, showing a slower growth rate compared to previous years. It suggests that higher mortgage rates might be affecting buyers' demand.
  3. New York had the highest annual home price increase at 7.3%, while Tampa saw a decline of 0.4%. Different regions are experiencing varying trends in home price changes.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Existing home sales are predicted to be around 4.09 million for January, showing a slight drop from December but an increase from last year.
  2. The average sale price for homes has risen about 5% compared to a year ago, indicating a continuing trend in increasing home values.
  3. The expected real interest rates have returned to levels similar to before the financial crisis, suggesting a more stable economic outlook.

January 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Residential construction jobs are not increasing much and have been stable. This suggests a slow period for the construction industry.
  2. The number of new construction starts was lower this month, indicating potential challenges ahead for the housing market.
  3. Despite issues in construction, there's a lot of political noise happening, which makes the calm in construction seem strange.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The report looks at various local housing markets across the US for January. It compares this year's data with data from January 2019.
  2. The analysis includes information about active listings, new listings, and closed sales in these markets.
  3. The newsletter encourages readers to subscribe for more detailed insights and data on the housing markets.

1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. In 2024, there were 1.73 million housing completions, which is the highest since 2006. This means more homes are now finished and ready for people.
  2. Completions increased by 12.5% compared to the previous year. This is a good sign for the housing market as more homes are being built.
  3. Even without counting manufactured homes, there were still around 1.63 million completions in 2024. This shows a strong upward trend in housing development.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Existing home sales stayed steady at an annual rate of 4.15 million in December, the same as November. This shows slight improvement compared to the previous year.
  2. The average price of existing single-family homes increased by about 5.6% compared to last year. This indicates that home values are generally rising.
  3. The upcoming report from the National Association of Realtors is expected to show even higher sales this month. If confirmed, it would be a third month of increasing year-over-year sales.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q2 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 14 Aug 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Mortgage delinquency rates have slightly decreased in Q2 2025, reaching 3.93%, which is below the historic average.
  2. Although overall delinquencies are down, serious delinquencies for loans 90 days or more past due have increased.
  3. The labor market shows some weakness and could lead to future increases in mortgage delinquencies, even though current rates remain low.

House hacking a $1.05m fourplex in Boise

The Leonard Letter • 19 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. House hacking a fourplex in Boise with renting possibilities near the university could be a smart move for your portfolio.
  2. Initial financial analysis shows a slight monthly loss, but potential to increase income by furnishing rentals and bundling utilities.
  3. Consider leveraging student housing demand and available options to generate additional income and potentially turn the property profitable.

Fear Sells

Diane Francis • 259 implied HN points • 19 Jul 21
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Fear triggers strong emotions in people, leading them to react quickly without thinking. This is why the media often uses fear to get attention and sell stories.
  2. There is a growing market for products and services that cater to people's fears, like panic rooms and survival bunkers. Companies are making money off people's anxiety about safety and the future.
  3. Instead of relying on expensive fear-based solutions, people can better manage their anxiety by focusing on the present, identifying stress triggers, and taking simple steps like breathing exercises.

Rising existing inventory in Texas and Florida

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Rising home inventory in places like Texas and Florida doesn't always mean a bad market. It can show real demand or a strong market too.
  2. Many people wrongly believe that too many houses lead to market crashes, but actually, drops in demand usually cause these issues.
  3. In past downturns, like in 2008, price drops happened after demand decreased, not because of oversupply. Understanding this helps make sense of current housing trends.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 01 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The serious delinquency rates for single-family homes have decreased slightly in May. This shows some improvement from the previous month.
  2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's delinquency rates are still higher than they were last year, but they are below pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Multi-family delinquency rates are nearing their highest levels since 2011, not counting the pandemic, indicating some stress in that sector.

Fear of Affordable Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Developers and builders fear the loss in the value of their land investments if political obstructions to construction were lifted.
  2. Rents are unlikely to decline significantly in a whole metropolitan area due to new housing supply - housing demand is inelastic.
  3. Invest carefully in real estate market based on real trends but don't let fears about collapsing rents impact your views on housing justice or macroeconomic trends.

New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. New home sales in December 2024 hit 698,000, which is a good increase from the previous months. This suggests the housing market is showing some positive movement.
  2. The median price of new homes has dropped by 7.2% from its peak. This could make new homes more affordable for buyers.
  3. There are currently about 8.5 months of new home supply available, which is higher than the normal range. This means there are lots of homes for buyers to choose from.

China's Evergrande Mess

Diane Francis • 219 implied HN points • 18 Oct 21
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. China is facing a big problem with its real estate market because of a crisis involving a company called Evergrande. This company has huge debts of $300 billion.
  2. This situation shows how tough it can be for big countries like China to handle major financial issues. They often manage to turn things around, but this crisis is particularly challenging.
  3. The Evergrande crisis could have serious effects not only for China but also for the global economy if it's not handled well. It's important to keep an eye on how this develops.

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. California home sales fell by 1.9% in January compared to last year. This drop marks the first year-over-year decline in eight months.
  2. The median price for homes in California decreased from December but is still 6.3% higher than a year ago. This shows mixed signs in the housing market.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale increased significantly, up 27.4% year-over-year. More homes are available now, which could change the dynamics of the market.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. In November, both single-family and multi-family serious delinquency rates went up. This means more people are having trouble paying their housing bills.
  2. Freddie Mac reported that the single-family serious delinquency rate increased slightly to 0.56%. Even though it rose, it's still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  3. The overall trend shows that while delinquency rates are increasing, they are still relatively low compared to before the pandemic hit.

House hacking a $675k duplex in Dallas

The Leonard Letter • 19 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Analyzing a real estate deal requires considering various financial aspects like mortgage, expenses, and rental income
  2. It's crucial to calculate potential expenses for maintenance, repairs, and vacancies to assess the overall profitability
  3. Before investing in a property, evaluate if the financial investment aligns with the income generated to avoid significant losses

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Home sales have been increasing for three months in a row compared to last year, which is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is up significantly, especially in southern states like Florida and Texas, meaning more choices for buyers.
  3. New listings are still low compared to past years, but they have increased recently, indicating some recovery in the market.