The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

Top Links 373 Ordeal by Roses, US bank worries, Gazprom's losses, misfiring missiles & Bismarck's legacy

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Top Links 373 include the Ordeal by Roses photos, US bank concerns, Gazprom's losses, misfiring missiles, and Bismarck's legacy.
  2. US banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have seen a decrease in reserves for commercial real estate debt.
  3. This post is available for paid subscribers and includes insights on various topics related to finance and geopolitics.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 26 Aug 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The national house price index has increased by 1.9% over the past year as of June. This is a sign of slow growth compared to previous months.
  2. Some cities like San Francisco and Phoenix have seen a decline in house prices from their recent peaks. This indicates a shift in the housing market dynamics.
  3. Despite a general increase in house prices year-over-year, the data shows significant volatility. Some areas are performing much better than others, with traditional markets gaining ground.

The Land Law to the Rescue

Vietnam Weekly • 39 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. The revised Land Law and Law on Credit Institutions in Vietnam aim to revive the real estate market by addressing historical shortcomings.
  2. The real estate market in Vietnam, especially in Ho Chi Minh City and surrounding provinces, experienced a significant decline in transactions and prices in recent years.
  3. Experts believe that the synchronized adjustment of four important real estate laws will increase transparency and resolve market issues in Vietnam.

1/29/2024: Evergrande is Ordered to Liquidate

depression2022 • 39 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. A Hong Kong court orders China's Evergrande Group to liquidate, impacting creditors and homebuyers.
  2. Evergrande's $300 billion debts are massive, rivaling Hong Kong's GDP.
  3. The Chinese property market is distressed with major developers facing default, potentially affecting capital market accessibility for Chinese firms in the future.

Erdmann Housing Tracker 2024 in Review (July to December)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Rising rents are the main cause behind increasing home price-to-rent ratios. This happens when supply is restricted, leading to higher land rents that inflate home values.
  2. Cities with high costs usually face housing shortages because of strict building regulations. They aren't necessarily more desirable but are limited in housing availability.
  3. The mortgage market has changed, favoring higher credit score borrowers, which has reduced access for many potential homeowners. This has led to inflated home prices and keeps housing out of reach for lower-income families.
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Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Total housing starts fell to a 1.246 million annual rate in October, down about 4.6% from September and 7.8% from a year earlier, and were well below expectations.
  2. Single-family starts rose month-to-month to about 874,000 but remain down roughly 7–7.8% year-over-year and 7.0% year-to-date, while multi-family starts fell in October and year-over-year yet are up about 18% year-to-date, showing a split between housing segments.
  3. Building permits were essentially flat at about a 1.412 million annual rate, slipping slightly month-to-month and year-over-year, and housing units under construction remain elevated, keeping a sizable pipeline of supply.

Why We Rent

Something to Consider • 19 implied HN points • 18 Apr 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Renting offers flexibility, letting people move easily without the stress of selling a house, but this can be managed by real estate agents too. It's not just about wanting to change homes quickly.
  2. People often rent because of capital constraints or fear of debt, but owning a home can be stable and safer in the long run. The real financial barriers might not be as strong as they seem.
  3. Renting can help solve problems related to property management, as landlords often specialize in repairs and maintenance. This can create a better living environment for tenants without the hassle of homeownership.

Recession Tug-of-War: Downside versus Bright Side

Risk Musings • 401 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The US economy faces challenges like high interest rates, commercial real estate vacancies, inflation, and climate change.
  2. Despite challenges, positive factors like AI, consumer demand, residential real estate, and labor strength are helping the economy remain resilient.
  3. The tug-of-war between downside risks and bright side factors will determine the economic outcome in the short, medium, and long terms.

FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $832,750 in 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The baseline conforming loan limit for most of the U.S. will rise to $832,750 in 2026, increasing by $26,250 from the previous year.
  2. In high-cost areas like Los Angeles, the loan limit will be even higher, reaching $1,249,125 for one-unit properties.
  3. Different areas have different loan limits, and they depend on both location and the number of units in a property.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same over the past year. While there have been slight month-to-month increases, overall rent growth has slowed down.
  2. Different sources report varying trends in rents, with some noting recent decreases while others show modest increases. This suggests that the rental market is a bit mixed right now.
  3. Factors like increased supply of rental units and changing immigration policies are affecting rents. These influences may continue to shape the rental landscape throughout the year.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Closed home sales in May decreased by 3.9% compared to last year, which indicates a continuing downward trend in the housing market.
  2. New listings of homes increased by 10.2% year-over-year, but they're still lower than the levels seen in May 2019.
  3. Active inventory is rising significantly, with an increase of 36.9% compared to last year, showing more options for buyers this spring.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 3 The Dog that Didn’t Bark - Retirement Homes

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Housing prices in different neighborhoods react differently to economic changes. In Atlanta, for instance, while the economy was severely impacted, the wealthy neighborhoods faced less of a decline compared to lower-income areas.
  2. Retirement communities usually rely less on credit markets, as many buyers pay in cash. This makes them interesting places to study housing trends and market responses to economic events.
  3. Local housing supply issues can drive prices up across all neighborhoods, not just low-income ones. When there's not enough housing built, even retirement homes can see rising costs.

Rent trends and multi-family construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The rent trends in different cities show that Austin is currently performing the best among metro areas in Texas.
  2. When looking at rental prices, it's important to consider whether changes are due to short-term demand shifts or local supply issues.
  3. The Erdmann Housing Tracker provides insights into multi-family construction, which can help understanding the housing market better.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 10 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Home inventory is increasing a lot, but home sales are not changing much compared to last year. This could push home prices down.
  2. Recent data shows that house prices have gone up overall, but there are signs that they might start to fall soon.
  3. There are big differences in the housing market depending on the region, so what’s happening in one place might not be true for another.

December 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Construction jobs are slowly increasing, reflecting overall job growth in the economy. This could mean more houses being built soon.
  2. There seems to be uncertainty in the construction market, as it doesn't fit historical patterns. It's unclear if residential construction jobs will continue to rise or stabilize.
  3. A lag in supply chains might be causing delays in construction. This suggests that the housing market might improve once those supply issues are resolved.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 09 Jul 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. The housing market is seeing more homes available for sale, with active listings up almost 29% compared to last year. This means buyers have more choices right now.
  2. Sales of homes are flat, and prices are under pressure because of the increased inventory. The new homebuilders are also reducing prices to compete.
  3. Even though there are more homes for sale, sales are still low, and the market is gradually moving back to pre-pandemic inventory levels.

California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 18 Nov 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. California home sales in October reached their highest level since February, showing a slight increase from both the previous month and last year. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. The median price per square foot for homes in California has decreased by 2.5% compared to last year. This indicates a slight downturn in housing prices, even as sales have picked up.
  3. While new listings have increased by 7% year-over-year, overall inventory remains higher than last year, which suggests that more homes are available for buyers, but market trends may slow down as we enter the holiday season.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. In October, home sales were down slightly by 0.3% compared to last year, even though they had increased by 8% the previous month. This shows that the housing market is facing some slowdowns.
  2. New home listings rose by 5.2% compared to last year, but they are still lower than levels seen in 2019. This suggests there's a cautious approach among sellers in the market.
  3. Active inventory of homes available for sale increased by 17.3% year over year, indicating more options for buyers. However, the growth is slightly lower than the previous month's increase.

October 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Rents are going up because there's not enough housing supply. Even as rents rise, home prices continue to reflect this shortage.
  2. Since the housing crisis in 2008, homes in larger cities have generally become cheaper, while smaller cities have seen their prices increase. The mortgage restrictions ended up making things worse for affordable housing.
  3. The main issue with housing costs isn't about big-city advantages, but rather it's about how difficult it is to build new homes in many areas, leading to a supply problem.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.01 million SAAR in July; Up 0.8% YoY

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 21 Aug 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Existing-home sales increased by 2.0% in July, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million. This shows a small growth compared to last year.
  2. The median house price rose slightly by 0.2% year-over-year to $422,400. This indicates that homes are still holding their value.
  3. The inventory of unsold homes also went up by 0.6%, bringing the total to 1.55 million units. This gives buyers more options in the market.

Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to long term rise in rent inflation and decline in housing consumption.
  2. The bubble story contradicts the evidence of high housing costs being a result of economic rents, not productivity.
  3. Robert Shiller's analysis overlooks the importance of considering rent inflation in understanding housing market inefficiencies.

January 2024 Homebuilder Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The housing market is influenced by various factors like interest rates and supply shortages. These changes can affect home prices and availability for buyers.
  2. Homebuilder activity can indicate overall market health. A rise in new builds might suggest confidence in the economy.
  3. Monitoring trends in housing can help investors and buyers make better decisions. Staying informed about the market can lead to smarter choices.

Full Circle Moment in Midtown

Midwest Humble • 35 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Bamboo started as a small group of friends looking for a space to share ideas and support each other. They turned a 2,000 sq ft loft into a co-working area, which helped many entrepreneurs grow.
  2. The journey of becoming a business owner can be tough, especially if you come from a different background. Finding mentorship and support can make a big difference in building confidence and skills.
  3. Bamboo is opening a new location in Midtown Detroit this Fall, which will provide various workspaces and amenities to support local entrepreneurs and foster community growth.

The Best Way to Build Affordable Housing is to Buy It

The New Urban Order • 59 implied HN points • 31 Aug 23
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. The cost of building affordable housing can be extremely high due to labor, land, materials, and debt, making it unaffordable to produce housing units.
  2. Buying existing housing may be a more cost-effective solution than building from scratch, especially when considering the high costs associated with new construction in major cities.
  3. An emerging trend in the housing sector is for governments and nonprofits to consider purchasing housing rather than solely relying on building new construction, as the current model centered on tax credits may not be sustainable in the long run.

freshman

A Journey of Learning • 58 implied HN points • 20 May 23
🚌 Education Real Estate
  1. Freshman year brought unexpected experiences and personal growth.
  2. Prioritizing creativity and exploring new opportunities led to valuable lessons and connections.
  3. Finding comfort in oneself and embracing the present moment can lead to a sense of fulfillment and contentment.

Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2024 in Review (January to June)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to a lack of supply rather than too much demand. Cities are struggling to provide enough homes for their growing populations.
  2. Homeownership continues to decline because of demographic shifts and a severe housing shortage. Many people are forced to share living spaces instead of owning their own homes.
  3. There is a belief that adding more housing will lead to lower prices, but it often results in the opposite effect. More housing can create a sense of instability in the market, making things feel worse for current residents.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are currently 1.7% below their peak in 2022, meaning they have slightly decreased recently.
  2. When considering the price-to-rent ratio, this is also 8.8% lower than it was at the peak last year, indicating changes in housing affordability.
  3. Overall, while house prices are historically high, they remain about 10.9% above the peak levels from the previous housing bubble.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. In June, housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.321 million, which is a slight increase from May. This suggests a growing construction activity but remains lower compared to June 2024.
  2. Single-family housing starts dropped 4.6% from May, while multi-family housing saw a significant year-over-year increase. This indicates a shift in the types of units being built.
  3. Overall, total housing starts are down 0.5% compared to last year, reflecting broader trends in the housing market, especially with single-family units declining while multi-family units grow.

Homebuilder Earnings

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings give insights into the health of the housing market. They can show how well builders are doing right now.
  2. Tracking these earnings can help predict future trends in home prices and availability. It’s important for buyers and investors to know what's happening in the market.
  3. Understanding homebuilder performance can help people make better decisions about buying or selling homes. It helps everyone stay informed.

Tell me what you want (in this publication)

The New Urban Order • 39 implied HN points • 12 Dec 23
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. The author is looking to engage with their audience through new ways like podcasts and events in 2024.
  2. The publication features a diverse range of subscribers with unique backgrounds and focuses, such as urban housing design, homelessness initiatives, and carbon footprint awareness.
  3. There is a call for readers to share their thoughts and preferences through a short survey, encouraging engagement with the publication.

Chinese Ghost Cities

An Interpersonal Journal • 79 implied HN points • 07 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Real Estate
  1. China builds 'ghost cities' as future urban solutions by planning ahead and constructing modern, connected environments before the need arises.
  2. Urban developments in China, like the infamous 'ghost cities', prioritize thoughtful planning, amenities, and interconnectedness with main cities to accommodate growing populations.
  3. Chinese 'ghost city' projects have yielded successes in addressing housing demands, but also face challenges like slow population growth and displacing existing communities.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 220 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The overview provides a snapshot of the current housing market including sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 9.1% year-over-year in December of 2023.
  3. Seasonally, December and January are weaker months for new listings, but it's expected that new listings may be up year-over-year in 2024.

Capital Gains Tax Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 119 implied HN points • 02 Mar 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Capital gains tax is what you pay when you sell an asset, like stocks or property, for more than you bought it. If you make a profit, that profit is subject to tax.
  2. There is an annual allowance for capital gains tax, meaning you can earn a certain amount from selling assets before you have to pay any tax on it. This allowance can vary by country and type of asset.
  3. There are different tax rates for short-term and long-term capital gains. Long-term gains are usually taxed at lower rates if you've held the asset for more than a year.