The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently about 2% lower than their peak in 2022. This means people may find better deals on homes than before.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is down by 9.3% since the peak in 2022. It suggests that renting may be more cost-effective compared to buying right now.
  3. Historically, house prices tend to increase over time, but real prices being above past bubbles shows that it's still a complicated market for buyers.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Home sales are down across many markets, with a 4.3% decrease year-over-year in May compared to last year.
  2. New listings are slowly increasing, up by 6.3% compared to last May, but still lag behind the numbers from 2019.
  3. Inventory levels are rising significantly, with a 29% increase year-over-year, indicating a changing market dynamic.

Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. We won't see a big increase in foreclosures like before. Most homeowners have good equity and stable mortgages, which helps them avoid financial struggles.
  2. The number of properties owned by lenders remains low, indicating that fewer people are losing their homes. This is a good sign compared to past economic downturns.
  3. Delinquency rates are decreasing, and most homeowners are able to keep up with payments. Even those in trouble can often find solutions to stay in their homes.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.3% year-over-year in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 29 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. In May, the national house prices increased by 2.3% compared to last year. This shows the market is still growing, but the growth is slowing down.
  2. The数据显示，房价在5月出现了连续三个月的月度下降. This means the prices are going down a bit after rising for a while.
  3. Some cities are seeing bigger drops, like San Francisco, where prices fell 8.2%. This suggests that not all areas are doing well in the housing market.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. New listings of homes were up by about 5% compared to last year, but they are still much lower than normal levels seen before the pandemic.
  2. The drop in mortgage rates starting in mid-August encouraged more homeowners to list their homes for sale, which is expected to continue even in the colder months.
  3. Weather events like Hurricane Milton affected home listings and sales in certain areas, particularly in Florida, showing that local conditions can impact the overall housing market.
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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Existing home sales in May are estimated to be around 4.03 million, a slight increase from April but a small drop from last year. It's important to watch how these numbers change over time.
  2. The median price for single-family homes in May went up by only 1% compared to last year. Prices varied by region, with some areas seeing slight increases or decreases.
  3. The National Association of Realtors will release official sales data soon, which will give a clearer picture of the housing market.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.1% lower than their peak in 2022. This shows that even when prices rise, the increase may not match inflation.
  2. The price-to-rent index is also lower than its 2022 peak by 7.8%. This means it might be cheaper to rent compared to buying right now.
  3. National house prices are historically high, being 11.6% above the previous housing bubble peak. However, price growth may slow down in the near future.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The housing market shows an increase in home inventory, but sales are not growing much compared to last year. This can put pressure on home prices.
  2. House prices have recently increased year-over-year, but there is a decrease month-over-month for the first time since early 2023.
  3. There are different trends in housing across regions, which means some areas may experience changes in market conditions differently than others.

More color on the inevitable rent boom of the 2010s.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The clampdown on mortgage lending in 2008 led to unprecedented rent inflation, reinforcing the relationship between home prices, rent ratios, and access to credit.
  2. The natural experiment since 2008 confirmed that cutting off mortgage access lowered price/rent ratios substantially, leading to collapse in construction and significant rent increases. This situation may have reached a point where new homes could be constructed again on a larger scale.
  3. A regressive rise in home prices occurred post-2008 due to a credit shock affecting existing home values and necessitating a rise in land rents to induce new construction. This situation highlights the impact of housing shortages on rent inflation and home values.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. The spring housing market was not great for new homebuilders, but they still have many completed homes to sell.
  2. There is a significant increase in the number of existing homes available for buyers, making it a better time to find a home.
  3. While home sales are flat compared to last year, prices may drop due to increased inventory, although big drops are unlikely.

Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Housing inventory dropped a lot during the pandemic, hitting record lows. Even now, inventory is still not back to pre-pandemic levels.
  2. In 2024, there was a significant increase in housing inventory, which is a positive sign for the market. This increase could indicate stability in home prices as more homes become available.
  3. Monitoring housing inventory trends has been important in the past for predicting when home prices will rise or fall, making it a key factor to watch moving into 2025.

California Home Sales Down Slightly YoY in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. California home sales slightly decreased in June compared to last year. Even though there was a small rebound from previous months, the overall sales were still down.
  2. The median home price in California fell to $899,560, dropping below $900,000 for the first time in three months. This decline is affected by market uncertainty and high mortgage rates.
  3. Inventory levels saw significant growth, with total active listings rising over 40% year-over-year. However, new listings also declined, which might balance supply and demand in the future.

Steve Cohen Wants To Spend $8 Billion To Transform Citi Field Into An Entertainment District

Huddle Up • 34 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Steve Cohen, the owner of the Mets, plans to spend $8 billion to turn the area around Citi Field into a fun entertainment district.
  2. His vision includes parks, hotels, restaurants, and even a casino, all without using any taxpayer money.
  3. Cohen wants to create a better experience for fans, showcasing his commitment by hosting special fan events and spending heavily on player contracts.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. November home sales are expected to show a slight increase compared to October, with forecasts at 3.97 million annually. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. This marks the second year-over-year gain in home sales since July 2021, indicating a potential recovery in the market.
  3. The data will be released by the NAR on December 19th, offering insight into how the housing market is currently performing.

November 2024 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. New home sales are low, but this is not always a bad sign. It could mean there's room for growth in the market.
  2. There's a high inventory of homes available, giving buyers more options. This can lead to better deals for those looking to purchase.
  3. Having a lot of homes for sale can create competition and could eventually lead to a more balanced housing market. It's important to watch how this evolves.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. House prices have been rising, with a 3.9% increase over the last year. This trend looks set to continue based on recent data.
  2. The Case-Shiller National Index saw monthly gains for the 20th time in a row, indicating a strong upward movement in home values.
  3. Understanding past trends in the housing market helps predict future changes, which is crucial for buyers and sellers.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. January saw a significant increase in active housing inventory, rising by 38.3% from last year, but it's usually low during this month. March will be important to see if this trend continues.
  2. New listings in January rose by 23.7% compared to last year, but they are still at historic lows when compared to January 2019.
  3. Closed sales in January increased by 6.4% year-over-year, which is a positive sign, but overall sales are still down compared to earlier years like 2019.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. In June, home sales increased by 4.5% compared to last year. This is a positive change after a decline in May.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale was up 30.8% year-over-year. This means more homes are available for buyers than before.
  3. New listings in June were also up by 5.5% from last year, but they are still lower compared to June 2019.

Homebuilder Earnings Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings are being updated, which is important for understanding the housing market. This update can give insights into how homebuilders are performing financially.
  2. Keeping track of homebuilder performance can help in making informed decisions about buying or selling a home. If builders are doing well, it might indicate a strong housing market.
  3. The information provided is available through a subscription service, which offers more detailed analyses and insights. Exploring these resources can be beneficial for those interested in housing trends.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 4.0% in December compared to last year. This shows that home prices are rising again after a period of decline.
  2. Most of the cities with the biggest price drops are in Florida, with Austin being the worst performer overall. This indicates that some areas are struggling much more than others.
  3. As more homes become available for sale in 2025, the growth in house prices might slow down. So even though prices are rising now, that might change in the near future.

California Home Sales Up 9.5% SA YoY in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. California home sales increased by 9.5% in October compared to the previous year, showing a strong recovery.
  2. October 2023 marked the first year-over-year gain in national existing home sales since August 2021 after a long decline.
  3. Mortgage rates, which dropped in August and September, contributed to the rise in sales, but recent increases might slow future sales.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. In October, existing home sales saw a year-over-year increase, which is the first time this has happened since August 2021. This means more people are buying homes now compared to last year.
  2. The median price of homes rose by about 4.7% compared to the same time last year, showing that homes are becoming more expensive even though sales are still low.
  3. Active inventory of homes for sale went up by 25.9% year-over-year, especially in places like Florida and Texas. This increase could impact home prices in the coming months.

October 2024 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. New home sales have sharply decreased recently, which may be linked to high mortgage rates. This situation is causing a lot of homes to sit on the market longer.
  2. The increase in months of inventory suggests that buyers are hesitant or unable to purchase new homes right now. This might indicate a cooling off in the housing market.
  3. The article hints at changes in the housing market that could be significant. Understanding these trends can help potential buyers and sellers make informed decisions.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. In November, existing-home sales rose to 4.15 million, marking a 4.8% increase from October. This shows a positive trend in the housing market after a long time.
  2. Median house prices went up by 4.7% compared to last year. This indicates that homes are becoming more expensive, even as sales are improving.
  3. The total housing inventory declined slightly to 1.33 million units, but it's still higher compared to last year. There's a good amount of homes available, but the sales pace keeps inventory lower than before.

Follow Up to Case-Shiller & Filtering

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The author analyzed different housing data like Case-Shiller and rent inflation. It's interesting to see how these data points relate to each other.
  2. There are components in the Erdmann Housing Tracker that provide extra insights on the housing market. Comparing these with other measurements helps to understand trends better.
  3. The analysis is not meant for academic purposes, but it's a fun exploration of the data. It shows how digging into numbers can reveal patterns.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. In January, housing starts dropped to 1.366 million, which is lower than both December's figures and January 2024's. This shows a ongoing decrease in new housing construction.
  2. Single-family home construction decreased by 8.4% compared to December, which indicates a slowdown in this sector. Meanwhile, multi-family units saw a slight increase year-over-year but still faced declines month-over-month.
  3. There were significant differences in regional construction patterns, especially in the Northeast, which experienced a notable drop, likely due to weather conditions.

November 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 15 Dec 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Data shows that rent inflation has decreased to about 2%, hitting the Fed's 2% inflation target.
  2. There is a hope for rents to gradually decrease towards a reasonable level as construction capacity increases in 2024 and beyond.
  3. Housing prices are settling in a low single-digit trend, making the housing market stable for now.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 90 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index revealed a year-over-year increase of 5.1% in house prices, with expectations of a more positive change in December.
  2. Different measures like the NAR, ICE, and Freddie Mac also show positive trends in house prices, hitting new all-time highs in December 2024.
  3. This analysis provides insights into the current state of the housing market, offering a glimpse into where it has been, where it is now, and where it might be heading.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Asking rents are pretty stable, with a slight year-over-year drop of 0.6%. This means many people are paying about the same for their apartments as they did last year.
  2. There's a lot more new apartments being built, leading to a higher vacancy rate. This increase in supply is putting pressure on rents and keeps them from rising significantly.
  3. Single-family home rents grew by 1.7% last year but are showing signs of slowing down. Overall, rent growth is not as high as it used to be, indicating a cooling market.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are now 1.3% lower than their peak in 2022. This means homes cost less when you account for inflation.
  2. Real house prices, which consider the effects of inflation, are still quite high compared to the past. They are about 11% above the peak during the housing bubble in 2006.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is also lower than its peak. This suggests that buying homes may be more favorable compared to renting right now.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index increased by 4.0% in November compared to last year. This shows that home prices are rising nationally.
  2. In Florida, many cities are facing significant price declines. Out of the 30 cities with the largest drops, 15 are located in Florida.
  3. This data is based on home sales that Freddie Mac has financed and includes regular appraisals. It helps track housing market trends accurately.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.428 million Annual Rate in July

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 19 Aug 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Housing starts rose to an annual rate of 1.428 million in July, which is good news for the housing market. It's a 5.2% increase from the previous month and 12.9% higher than last year.
  2. Single-family housing starts also grew, with a rate of 939,000 in July, up 2.8% from June. This shows that people are actively building homes.
  3. Multi-family housing starts have seen even bigger growth, with a 24.1% increase year-over-year. This indicates a strong demand for apartment buildings and larger housing units.

New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. New home sales dropped sharply to an annual rate of 610,000 in October, which is a significant decrease from previous months. This decline might be linked to recent hurricanes affecting certain areas.
  2. The median price of new homes has decreased by 5% from its peak, which is partly due to the types of homes being sold. This suggests a shift in the market's composition.
  3. There is a notable increase in the months of supply for new homes, now at 9.5 months, indicating a bigger inventory than usual. More completed homes are available compared to recent years, especially since the pandemic.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Existing home sales saw a year-over-year increase in November, but overall sales are still low compared to past years. This means the market is slowly improving but hasn't fully bounced back yet.
  2. Inventory levels of homes for sale are rising, especially in states like Florida and Texas. More available homes could impact house prices as we move into the winter months.
  3. New listings are showing slight growth, but they remain lower than historical norms. This could mean fewer options for buyers compared to previous years.