The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

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Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Housing prices are expected to rise a little in 2025, but not by much. People think the increase will be in the low to mid single digits.
  2. Sales of new and existing homes are predicted to go up next year. However, existing home sales will likely stay around four million.
  3. The construction of multi-family homes is not expected to improve in 2025. Builders are generally cautious about starting new multi-family projects.

San Francisco and Miami. Hot or not?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. The Case-Shiller home price index shows Miami hitting new highs while San Francisco has been declining.
  2. Both San Francisco and Miami have low housing production, with Miami consistently slightly higher in construction than San Francisco.
  3. San Francisco's construction activity seems to be waning, despite expectations for increased housing due to YIMBY wins and new state laws.
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4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Some local housing markets are seeing quicker inventory recovery than sales, especially in states like Florida and Texas. This may lead to rising home prices.
  2. December is showing a year-over-year increase in home sales for the third month in a row. This trend might indicate a recovering housing market.
  3. Regional differences in the housing market are important to watch. Understanding these differences can help buyers and sellers make better decisions.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. New home listings rose slightly by 2% in November compared to last year, but they are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  2. The increase in listings was fueled by lower mortgage rates, but higher rates are now reducing new sellers coming into the market.
  3. December and January are typically slow months for new home listings, so we can expect fewer homes to be listed in the near future.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Serious delinquency rates for single-family homes slightly increased in September. This means a small rise in the number of homeowners who are late on their mortgage payments.
  2. Multi-family delinquency rates also went up, hitting levels not seen since 2011. This points to more challenges for those managing multiple rental units.
  3. Despite the increases, overall delinquency rates remain below pre-pandemic lows. This suggests that the housing market is still stronger than it was during the worst of the pandemic.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 3.9% over the last year, showing that home prices are generally on the rise again.
  2. Many cities in Florida are experiencing significant price declines, with four of the six cities having the largest drops in home values.
  3. As housing inventory grows and sales remain low, it's expected that the growth in home prices could slow down in 2025.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Housing starts in October dropped to 1.311 million, which is lower than both September and October of last year. This shows a continued decrease in new home construction.
  2. Single-family housing starts also fell by about 6.9% compared to the previous month, suggesting potential challenges in the market for individual homes.
  3. Multi-family housing starts saw a trend of weakness over the past year, indicating it may be harder to get those types of buildings underway, while single-family starts have been improving recently.

Freddie Reports Surge in Multifamily Serious Delinquencies

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 71 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Freddie Mac reported a significant increase in multifamily serious delinquencies in January 2024, marking a shift in the rental market dynamics.
  2. The rise in delinquency rates is attributed to slowed rent growth, increased vacancies, and higher borrowing rates in the multifamily housing sector.
  3. The trend of increasing delinquencies is expected to continue as more apartments become available in 2024, highlighting potential challenges in the real estate market.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Existing home sales increased in October, marking the first year-over-year gain since August 2021. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Sales were estimated to be at an annual rate of 3.97 million, which is a 3.4% increase from September. This shows a gradual recovery in home buying activity.
  3. The increase in home sales could indicate a shift in the market, possibly making it a better time for buyers and sellers to engage in real estate transactions.

Forecast: Multifamily Starts will Decline Sharply

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 105 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Due to household formation slowing down, multifamily starts are expected to decrease significantly.
  2. Freddie Mac reports that multifamily delinquencies have tripled year-over-year, indicating a potential decline in multifamily construction.
  3. Data points show that factors like softening asking rents, increased vacancy rates, tighter lending, and higher interest rates are contributing to the decline in multifamily starts.

Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Residential investment is likely to see a small increase in 2024, which is a positive shift after two years of decline.
  2. Housing starts for single-family homes are expected to remain stable, while multi-family starts may drop a bit more in 2025.
  3. New home sales are projected to rise by about 5% in 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in the housing market.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Local housing markets in October showed the first year-over-year sales gain since August 2021. This is a positive sign for home sales.
  2. The analysis includes over 40 local markets, comparing current data to October 2019. This helps understand how the market has changed over time.
  3. Active listings, new listings, and closed sales are being tracked, giving a clearer picture of the housing market's performance.

A Quest for Accurate North Star Metrics

Balancing Act • 19 implied HN points • 07 Apr 23
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. North Star Metrics are crucial for measuring business success, but accurately comparing them to competitors can be challenging.
  2. Real estate data, particularly from the MLS, provides companies like Zillow and Redfin with precise market insights for measuring market share.
  3. Selecting and refining a North Star Metric as a business grows is essential, and leveraging industry-specific data sources can improve metric accuracy.

YIMBies Overpromise

Wooly's Post Repository • 19 implied HN points • 23 Jul 23
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. The data on housing prices and construction can be confusing and counterintuitive, leading to difficulties in drawing clear conclusions.
  2. YIMBY goals require a significant amount of construction to impact housing prices, but achieving such high construction rates can be challenging.
  3. Confidence in real estate research should be lowered due to the complexity and potential errors in the data, making it important to approach conclusions with caution.

NBA Valuations Reach $4.4 Billion As The Focus On Real Estate Development Intensifies

Huddle Up • 34 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. NBA teams are now worth an average of $4.4 billion. This shows how valuable basketball franchises have become.
  2. The Golden State Warriors are the most valuable team at $8.8 billion, followed by the Knicks and Lakers. These teams are leading the pack in terms of worth.
  3. Real estate development is becoming more important for NBA teams. It seems teams are trying to boost their value through property investments.

New Home Sales Increase to 627,000 Annual Rate in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 24 Jul 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. New home sales rose to an annual rate of 627,000 in June, which is a small increase from May but still lower than a year ago.
  2. The supply of new homes for sale is around 9.8 months, indicating there are more homes available than usual.
  3. The inventory of completed homes is much higher than it was in early 2022, suggesting an increase in housing options for buyers.

The "New Normal" Mortgage Rate Range

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 105 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Real estate agents suggest that mortgage rates may decrease to around 5% or lower once inflation is back to the 2% target.
  2. Current 30-year mortgage rates are at 7.26%, significantly higher than the 3.5% to 5% range prior to the pandemic.
  3. Expectations do not foresee a return to 3% mortgage rates unless there is another crisis.

January 2025 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Home sales are still slow following the effects of Covid-19. Many people are still hesitant to buy homes right now.
  2. The number of homes for sale is high, which relates to the inventory levels seen in 2008. This suggests a potential oversupply in the market.
  3. The months of supply for homes on the market are also very high, indicating that it may take a while for the market to balance out.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Homeowners are extracting less equity from their homes compared to the past, which is a positive sign for the housing market stability.
  2. Despite a slight rise in negative equity, most homeowners still have significant equity in their homes, which helps buffer against market downturns.
  3. Mortgage debt is rising, but it remains a lower percentage of GDP compared to the peak during the housing bubble, indicating healthier borrowing practices.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.5% year-over-year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 66 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 5.5% year-over-year in December, showing a trend of rising prices. This was the smallest increase since prices declined in January 2023, hinting at some market fluctuations.
  2. The FHFA House Price Index indicated a 6.5% rise in prices over the last year, with a 0.1% increase in December, pointing towards a steady rise in housing prices despite signs of softening in the market.
  3. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index reported a 5.5% annual gain in December, with regions like San Diego, Los Angeles, and Detroit showing significant increases. The Composite 10, Composite 20, and National indices all reached new all-time highs.

January 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update and Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.

Could your office become a home?

Make Work Better • 119 implied HN points • 28 Apr 23
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Converted office buildings could help solve the housing crisis by repurposing underused office spaces.
  2. Middle managers working from home are attending too many virtual meetings to show their value.
  3. Zaha Hadid Architects are using AI tools like Dall-E to push the boundaries of their architectural designs.

FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $806,500

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The baseline conforming loan limit for 2025 is being raised to $806,500, which is about $40,000 more than last year. This means people can borrow more for buying homes without needing special approval.
  2. In high-cost areas, the loan limit can go up to $1,209,750 for one-unit properties. That's because home prices in those places are higher than average.
  3. The FHA also has its own loan limits ranging from $524,225 in low-cost areas to $1,209,750 in high-cost areas. These limits help make affordability better for those getting loans guaranteed by the FHA.

The Perverse Incentives Depreciating Your House

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Home prices are rising fast, making it hard for many people to think they'll ever own one. It's more of a struggle for the average person to afford a home nowadays.
  2. Builders often focus on making homes quickly and cheaply instead of making them durable and long-lasting. This means new homes might not hold their value as well as older ones.
  3. Homebuyers are not paying as much attention to quality. They’re more interested in lower prices, which can lead to issues later as newer homes may need repairs sooner.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. House prices are currently about 1% lower than their peak in 2022 when adjusted for inflation. This means prices are still quite high compared to the past.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is around 7.7% lower than the 2022 peak. This could mean it's more expensive to buy a house than to rent in some areas.
  3. Real house prices have generally been increasing over time, but it's been a while since they have hit new highs. Experts think prices may stay flat or slightly decline in the near future.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. U.S. house prices rose about 4.5% over the past year, showing growth across all regions, but at a slower pace than before. This suggests the market is stabilizing after a period of rapid increases.
  2. The Case-Shiller index indicates that home prices have been increasing month-over-month consistently, with a 0.5% rise recently, even though some cities like San Francisco and Tampa are seeing price declines.
  3. Overall house prices are now higher than they were before the pandemic, but growth is less intense than during peak years, reflecting changes in demand and supply in the housing market.

The $650m+ Spirit Halloween business

SatPost by Trung Phan • 84 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Spirit Halloween is a massive seasonal business making over $650m a year in only 2 months.
  2. The success of Spirit Halloween is due to its pioneering pop-up store model and the US Halloween Industrial Complex.
  3. The business's real estate operation includes over 1,450 locations set up in strategic areas to capture foot traffic.