The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

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Lawler: Update on “Is the “Natural” Rate of Interest Back to Pre-Financial Crisis Levels”

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 62 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Existing home sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, showing a 6.3% increase from December and 0.5% from last January.
  2. The estimated 'natural' real rate of interest has shown varying trends, with one measure rising to slightly above 2% for two quarters while another started to move back down.
  3. Economists have noted potential biases in the estimates of the impact of 'other factors' on the 'natural' rate of interest, and some have suggested using TIPS rates as an indicator of market views.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. House prices are gradually increasing, with a 4.2% rise year-over-year noted in the Case-Shiller National Index. This suggests the housing market is still active but may slow down soon.
  2. The monthly increase in house prices has been steady, showing growth for 19 consecutive months. This indicates a long-term positive trend in the housing market.
  3. Future outlooks for house prices in 2024 are being discussed, hinting at ongoing changes and developments that could impact buyers and sellers alike.

Watch Months-of-Supply!

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Watch the months-of-supply to help predict housing prices. It can show us if prices might go up or down.
  2. Currently, both home inventory and sales are lower than they were before the pandemic.
  3. The months-of-supply is higher than in 2019, which could lead to changes in the housing market soon.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. House prices in the U.S. increased by 3.6% over the past year, according to the Case-Shiller National House Price Index. This suggests that home values are generally rising.
  2. In October, prices went up by 0.35% from the previous month, marking the 21st straight month of increases. Most major cities saw price growth, but some cities like San Francisco have seen declines from their peaks.
  3. Although house prices continue to rise, the rate of growth is slowing down compared to previous years. Factors like high mortgage rates and low inventory are affecting affordability.
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Dallas vs. Austin

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Rents are going down in both Dallas and Austin, but Austin is seeing a bigger drop. This indicates a shift in the housing market.
  2. There's a clear trend happening in real estate that can be tracked through data, which helps understand rental prices and construction activity.
  3. It's important to keep an eye on housing supply and demand, as they play a key role in rental prices across major Texas cities.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. House prices are on the rise, with the Case-Shiller National Index showing a year-over-year increase of about 3.8% in November. This trend seems to be continuing into December as well.
  2. The month-over-month changes show that house prices have increased 0.44%, which means house prices have been consistently going up for 22 consecutive months.
  3. Looking ahead, there’s speculation about what will happen with house prices in 2025, indicating that trends in housing are important for future planning.

A Crash vs. a Correction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The Erdmann Housing Tracker helps understand the reasons behind changes in housing prices. It can show whether a price change is due to a crash or a correction.
  2. Using examples from places like Phoenix and Austin can clarify how different factors influence real estate trends. Looking at specific cities can provide a clearer picture.
  3. Being aware of market trends can help you make smarter decisions in buying or selling homes. It's important to understand what is happening in the housing market.

In Q2, almost 20% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. In the second quarter of 2024, nearly 20% of new rental units were single-family homes. This shows a growing interest in single-family rentals.
  2. The number of single-family units built-for-rent has almost doubled since 2020, indicating a trend towards more single-family developments.
  3. While multi-family rental units saw a big drop, single-family units are becoming a bigger part of the rental market, signaling a shift in housing demand.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth cooled for the seventh consecutive month"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Home price growth has slowed down for seven months in a row. This suggests that the housing market is cooling off.
  2. Mortgage holders currently have a lot of equity, totaling $17.2 trillion in the U.S. This equity can sometimes be tapped for additional borrowing.
  3. Recent cuts to Fed rates might encourage more homeowners to use their home equity. This could lead to an increase in home equity withdrawals by homeowners.

December 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Inflation numbers are delayed because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) isn't updated yet. So, we'll have to wait a bit longer for the latest inflation details.
  2. Homebuilders, like KB Homes, continue to report strong earnings despite high mortgage rates. It seems that mortgage rates don't impact homebuilders as much as expected.
  3. There's an ongoing pattern where people keep thinking mortgage rates will disrupt the housing market, but this hasn't really happened lately. It's like a financial mystery that keeps repeating.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The national house price index is up by 2.7% over the past year, showing a general increase in home prices.
  2. However, there was a month-to-month decrease of 0.4% in home prices in April, indicating some fluctuation in the market.
  3. Certain regions are seeing lower gains or even declines, suggesting a shift in real estate trends across the country.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. In November, housing starts dropped to an annual rate of 1.289 million, marking a 1.8% decrease from October. The overall rate is also down 14.6% compared to November 2023.
  2. Single-family housing starts saw a slight increase of 6.4% from October, while multi-family starts fell significantly by 27.6% year-over-year. This shows that the single-family housing market is performing better than multi-family units.
  3. Year-to-date, total housing starts are down 4.3%, but single-family starts are up 7.2%. Multi-family starts, however, have seen a decline of 30.1%, indicating a tough year for that segment of the market.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Existing home sales increased in November, reaching an annual rate of 4.09 million. This is a 3.3% increase from October and 4.6% higher than last November.
  2. The median price for existing single-family homes went up by about 5.3% compared to last year. This suggests a growing demand in the housing market.
  3. There is ongoing discussion about the 'neutral' interest rate, which affects how restrictive monetary policy is. Recent economic growth may lead to higher estimates of this rate among officials.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. In November, home sales increased by 17% compared to last year. This is a good sign, but sales are still lower than what they were a few years ago.
  2. There was a big jump in active home listings, with inventory up almost 25% year-over-year. This increase is crucial for keeping house prices stable during the winter months.
  3. New listings are rising slightly, but remain low when compared to past years. This means fewer homes are being put on the market, even though some areas are seeing more options.

NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The apartment market has been getting looser for ten quarters in a row. This means there are more vacancies and less competition for renters.
  2. Signs show that rents might drop as apartment vacancies increase. If more places are empty, landlords may lower prices to attract renters.
  3. There is less activity in buying and selling apartments, and it's also harder to get financing. This could make it tough for investors in the real estate market.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same when compared to last year, with a slight overall decrease of about 0.6%. This means rental prices are not rising much.
  2. The rental market is seeing more available apartments due to a lot of new construction, which keeps prices low. The vacancy rate is the highest it's been since the pandemic began.
  3. Single-family home rents have increased by about 2% year-over-year but are still below pre-pandemic growth levels. Many areas are seeing slower rent growth, which is good news for renters.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.4% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that while prices have gone up, they haven't reached their highest point when you factor in inflation.
  2. In nominal terms, house prices are at all-time highs, but the real value shows a different picture. This is important because it reflects the actual purchasing power of money over time.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is 8.1% below its peak in 2022, suggesting that buying homes might be getting less attractive compared to renting in the current market.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October; Up 3.7% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up 3.7% compared to last year, showing a steady increase in home prices.
  2. Florida has many cities experiencing large price declines, with 18 out of the top 35 cities affected.
  3. If more houses are available for sale and sales remain low, we might see a slowdown in home price growth early next year.

Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. There's a discussion about housing trends, led by Mike Simonsen from Altos Research. It's important to know what's happening in the housing market right now.
  2. The video linked offers insights on various housing aspects. Watching it can help you understand current market conditions better.
  3. CalculatedRisk Newsletter is supported by its readers. Subscribing helps the creator continue sharing valuable information.

Hovnanian 2023 Earnings

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 06 Dec 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Hovnanian and Toll Brothers both reported positive earnings for the quarter.
  2. The rhetoric from the companies shifted to focus on excellent results during peak interest rates.
  3. Homebuilders are setting prices based on completion speed rather than speculation.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates showed a slight increase in October, marking 0.55% for Freddie Mac and 0.52% for Fannie Mae. This is still lower than delinquency rates before the pandemic.
  2. Multi-family serious delinquency rates also rose, with Fannie Mae's rate reaching its highest since 2011, excluding pandemic data. This indicates growing challenges in the multi-family housing market.
  3. Delinquent loans are defined as being three or more payments past due or in foreclosure. Despite some increases, many recent loans from 2009 to 2023 are still faring well, indicating overall improvement in loan performance.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. New home listings increased slightly in December compared to the previous year, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic.
  2. Lower mortgage rates during the previous months had encouraged some homeowners to sell, but higher rates now are limiting new sellers this winter.
  3. December and January are usually the slowest months for new home listings, but the year-over-year increase shows some movement in the market.

From Monte Carlo to Stockholm

HackBoyFly • 1 HN point • 17 Jul 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Using a Monte Carlo Simulation can help estimate a wide range of potential outcomes when making investment decisions like buying an apartment in Stockholm
  2. Historical data, mean annual returns, and standard deviations are crucial inputs for simulations to introduce randomness and variability to financial projections
  3. Visualizing simulations through charts can provide insights on possible outcomes, such as optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, aiding in making informed decisions about investments

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Existing-home sales rose to 3.96 million in October, marking a 3.4% increase from September and the first yearly rise since July 2021. This shows a positive trend in the housing market.
  2. Median home prices increased by 4.0% compared to last year, which suggests that despite more inventory, homes are still getting more expensive.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale is up 19.1% compared to last year, indicating more options for buyers, although the months of supply is higher than in pre-pandemic times.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. Closed sales in February were influenced by past mortgage rates, showing a decrease from rates in the previous months.
  2. Active inventory in early reporting housing markets increased significantly in February, raising concerns about potential peaks.
  3. New listings in February were up year-over-year, but still at low levels compared to historical data.

Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. House prices are expected to rise by about 3% to 4% in 2024. This prediction is based on the current trends in housing inventory and sales.
  2. The future of house prices in 2025 will largely depend on supply and demand in the market. A shortage or surplus of homes can greatly influence prices.
  3. There are significant differences in home supply across different regions, with areas like Florida and Texas seeing more inventory. This suggests that while national trends matter, local conditions can lead to very different outcomes.

New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. New home sales went up to a rate of 664,000 in November, showing a good increase from October. This is also higher than the numbers from the same time last year.
  2. The supply of new homes available for sale decreased slightly, now sitting at 8.9 months. This is still higher than the usual range, which is about 4 to 6 months.
  3. The inventory of completed homes is up, with nearly 120,000 available, showing more options for buyers compared to the very low supply in early 2022.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Home sales in California jumped by 19.5% compared to last year, signaling a strong recovery even though overall sales remain below pre-COVID levels.
  2. The number of active home listings grew significantly, with inventory up over 20% year-over-year, which may affect house prices in the coming months.
  3. New listings have also increased slightly, but are still at historically low levels, suggesting that supply remains tight in several markets.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January; California Home Sales Up 5.9% YoY in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate
  1. California home sales were up 5.9% year-over-year in January, marking the first year-over-year sales gain in 31 months.
  2. Active listings in California decreased year-over-year for the 10th month but new listings increased, suggesting some balance in the market.
  3. In January, closed sales in various markets were up 3.0%, showing improvement compared to the previous month, but they are down compared to January 2019 levels.