The hottest Security Policy Substack posts right now

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The Iran War: Manna from Heaven for China & Russia

John’s Substack • 9 implied HN points • 22 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. The US is stuck in a bind over the Iran war with no good options, facing only bad choices between escalating or finding a risky exit.
  2. The war is forcing the US to move military and diplomatic resources from East Asia to the Middle East, which weakens America's ability to contain China.
  3. China and Russia benefit: China gains from a distracted US, and Russia is strengthened by eased oil sanctions and a reduced flow of weapons to Ukraine.

Iran's Inalienable Right to Enrich

Gordian Knot News • 117 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. The NPT affirms every party’s right to develop peaceful nuclear energy, but that right is limited by commitments not to pursue or acquire nuclear weapons and to accept full IAEA inspections.
  2. The treaty itself is vague on enforcement, so breaches can lead to escalating measures—sanctions first and potentially force if other responses fail.
  3. The United States has undercut the treaty’s promise of the “fullest possible exchange” by restricting peaceful nuclear cooperation, such as blocking exports of reactors like the Korean APR1400.

There Is A Donroe Doctrine

Phillips’s Newsletter • 208 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. The US and Israeli air campaign has severely degraded Iranian air defenses, missile and drone capabilities, and targeted Iranian leaders, but it’s not clear what political or military end state those strikes are meant to achieve.
  2. Public messaging from US leadership is contradictory—claims of victory and surrender are mixed with admissions the war is ongoing—so it’s hard to tell whether the chaos is genuine or deliberate misdirection.
  3. This mix of coercive strikes and noisy signaling mirrors what was done in Venezuela and will be a litmus test in Iran for whether this emerging US doctrine actually achieves its strategic aims.

Top Links 1007 US profits. Global public spending. The new nuclear arms race & cultivating your "legitimate strangeness".

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 08 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. US corporate profits are a central economic story, with implications for markets, investment and inequality.
  2. Global public spending is highlighted as a key force shaping national and international economic outcomes through government budgets and policies.
  3. The newsletter warns of a renewed nuclear arms race as a major geopolitical risk and also urges embracing “legitimate strangeness,” valuing unconventional ideas and identities.

Party Time! Jon Czin on US-China 2025 and 2026

ChinaTalk • 326 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. The apparent calm in US-China relations is a deliberate lull: China has prepared responses and is using measured escalations like rare-earth export controls to gain leverage, especially timed around the US midterms.
  2. US policy is inconsistent and personality-driven: frequent personnel churn and a president who acts as his own China desk produce seesaws between confrontation and mollification, leaving allies undercut and pushing a sector-by-sector "whack-a-mole" approach instead of a coherent strategy.
  3. The real stakes are long-term and allied: flashy moves in places like Venezuela or Iran won't change Beijing's calculus, so the US needs to double down on alliances (especially Japan) and strategy, because continued risky gambles that have worked so far could eventually backfire.
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Do Those Dominating a Situation Truly Bluff & Then Back Down?: Misreadings from Melos to Davos, & Beyond

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 330 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. To 'dominate' a space is to be at home in it and set its rules, not just to make a loud show; threatening and then backing down at Davos looks like improvisation and fragility, not genuine control.
  2. Reading Davos as a clever bluff ignores the institutional and ritual constraints at play; European pushback and coordinated expectations turned theatrics into a retreat rather than a strategic win.
  3. Using the Melian Dialogue to justify "might makes right" is a misreading of Thucydides; history shows that imperial arrogance often drives rivals to form alliances that undercut overreaching powers.

Three Significant Military Powers on the European Continent?: Muscovy 'Rus, But Also an "Inner Europe" and the "Viking Alliance"

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 261 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. Russia punches above its economic weight militarily and has nuclear weapons, so Europe can no longer assume outside guarantees will always hold. Europe must prepare credible independent defense options.
  2. Two mini-lateral coalitions — an "Inner Europe" core (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Netherlands) and a "Viking Alliance" of northern states plus the UK, Baltics, and Ukraine — could form the main conventional balance to Russia. If they build real command structures, budgets, and production, they would outweigh Russia in conventional resources.
  3. Emergent European military coalitions would change deterrence and U.S. politics by making any presidential tilt toward Russia more visible and politically costly. They would normalize forward deployments, bilateral guarantees, and industrial cooperation that strengthen collective defense.

In which Marco Rubio receives a standing ovation from the Eurotards for his speech attacking mass migration, "the climate cult" and liberal universalism

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 178 implied HN points • 15 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Security Policy
  1. Marco Rubio attacked mass migration, what he called the “climate cult,” and liberal universalism, and his speech at the Munich Security Conference drew a standing ovation.
  2. His remarks indicate that nationalist and right-populist critiques of migration, climate policy, and liberal norms are finding sympathy among some European elites.
  3. That applause signals shifting transatlantic dynamics, where alliances and domestic leaders may face harder choices about migration, climate policy, and the limits of liberal universalism.

Trump Is Deadly Serious About Assimilating Greenland

Phillips’s Newsletter • 227 implied HN points • 17 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. Trump is serious about assimilating Greenland and has made it a central goal of his policy agenda, not just a passing comment.
  2. He is pressuring European countries to support the effort and has threatened economic measures like tariffs or sanctions against those who don’t comply.
  3. Greenland is framed as strategically vital because of its Arctic location, resources, and control over North Atlantic routes, which makes the move attractive from a great-power, security perspective.

Weekend Update #166: The Russian Strategy Would Normally Be Seen As A Failure

Phillips’s Newsletter • 309 implied HN points • 04 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. Russia’s 2025 campaign won under 1% of Ukrainian territory but at very high casualty and resource cost, making it effectively a strategy of failure unless outside support changes the balance.
  2. Zelensky’s appointment of Kyrylo Budanov as chief of staff signals a move toward a tougher, long-term war posture and may strengthen his political and military hand.
  3. Trump’s quick acceptance of a Kremlin claim about an attack on Putin’s palace, followed by a face-saving retweet, revealed how easily he can be influenced by Russian narratives and how PR maneuvers can obscure that reality.

The Fewer Soldiers On The Front Line The Better

Phillips’s Newsletter • 185 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. Drones have remade the battlefield: constant surveillance and kamikaze UAVs turned the area between armies into a deadly "grey zone," forcing a move away from large, traditional frontline formations.
  2. Russian forces have tried brutal, improvised ways (horses, crawling, bad weather) to push across that zone, causing heavy losses and lots of local attacks but no sustained breakthroughs or exploitation.
  3. Ukraine adapted by putting fewer soldiers on the front, using unmanned systems and small, highly trained units to inflict disproportionate casualties, and needs air defence plus more UAV production and training instead of mass conscription.

China’s Germany watchers take stock of Berlin’s uneasy turn

Pekingnology • 98 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. Germany is facing deep domestic strains: political fragmentation, rising far‑right and new populist forces, and a government struggling to deliver policies, all of which fuel social unease.
  2. Germany is making a clear security pivot with big increases in defence spending, conscription and deployments, and a more securitised outlook that mixes tough rhetoric on China with economic pragmatism.
  3. The room for China–EU and China–Germany cooperation is narrowing as Europe increasingly frames China as a systemic rival and ties China policy to Russia and transatlantic dynamics, even though trade and two‑way investment remain substantial.

Thinking Backwards.

Trying to Understand the World • 8 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. The West is trapped in wishful thinking and intellectual ignorance about large-scale war and Russia, so leaders keep hoping for a miracle instead of facing political and military realities.
  2. Russia is pursuing a broad attrition strategy that targets Ukraine's overall war-making capacity, and modern technologies like drones now often favor the defender, so counting territory gains or losses misses the real strategic impact.
  3. Talk of "rearmament" is mostly money and slogans without coherent aims; sensible policy must start with clear strategic objectives and then work down to missions, tasks, capabilities and concepts of operation before buying equipment.

Can Ukraine find a deal that works?

Comment is Freed • 73 implied HN points • 29 Nov 25
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. Ukraine should not be rushed into arbitrary deadlines and must insist on clear rules for how any Russian input is used, so concessions don’t invite further demands.
  2. An initial 28-point proposal was tightened to 20 points and a negotiating process is underway, but the central sticking point remains Russia’s insistence on territorial concessions.
  3. Ukraine is resilient and will keep fighting, yet it has reasons to engage seriously in talks for a ceasefire; the West should keep military and economic pressure on Russia to encourage concessions while Ukraine picks acceptable terms without capitulating.

Putin's Nuclear Gambit

Diane Francis • 699 implied HN points • 19 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. Putin's government is under pressure, and they have made nuclear threats that raise serious concerns in the West. The potential use of a nuclear power plant as a dangerous weapon makes the situation even more alarming.
  2. A nuclear attack or even an explosion at a nuclear facility could cause terrible fallout that would affect many countries, not just Ukraine. This poses huge risks to human health and the environment.
  3. Western countries need to respond more strongly to Russia's actions, like moving nuclear weapons to Belarus and occupying Ukraine's nuclear sites. Supporting Ukraine more aggressively could help prevent a nuclear disaster.

Everything You Need To Know About the U.S. / Israeli War With Iran (w/ Alastair Crooke) | The Chris Hedges Report

The Chris Hedges Report • 142 implied HN points • 10 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Security Policy
  1. The conflict between Israel, Iran, and the U.S. isn't finished yet, and future actions will deeply affect the Middle East and global economy.
  2. Israel's surprise attacks were planned carefully, using technology and strategies that can't easily be repeated, while Iran’s military readiness is now heightened.
  3. The U.S. and its allies face challenges in their approach to Iran, as aggressive tactics may push Iran towards developing nuclear weapons, contrary to their intentions.

Saturday Commentary and Review #186

Fisted by Foucault • 185 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Security Policy
  1. J.D. Vance highlighted that Europe's biggest threat isn't from outside forces like Russia or China, but rather from internal issues like declining democratic values and free speech. He believes Europe needs to uphold the will of its citizens.
  2. Vance pointed out that Europe is facing a significant challenge with mass migration, which he claims is a result of policies not aligned with the people's desires. He stresses that European leaders should listen to and respect their voters' concerns.
  3. He also stressed that the responsibility for security lies with Europe itself, and as the USA focuses more on East Asia, European countries need to step up and take charge of their own defense and of their democratic processes.

The US is no longer our ally

Erik Examines • 179 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. The US is seen by some as no longer being a reliable ally, with divisions in its political landscape affecting international relationships. This raises concerns about how the US approaches foreign policy and engages with other countries.
  2. There's a belief that the US government is siding with far-right movements in Europe and challenging democratic norms. This shift is viewed as a significant change from past US leadership which was more aligned with traditional allies.
  3. Historical parallels are drawn to past aggressive actions by leaders, showing a worry that current US politics might lead to similar conflicts. Many people prefer to cling to the familiar, but change is coming whether they like it or not.

Bioweapons Treaty Update - Progress!

Who is Robert Malone • 10 implied HN points • 20 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. The U.S. is pushing to strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention by adding a verification regime with real teeth to stop the development of biological weapons.
  2. Officials are proposing to use AI and modern tools to boost transparency, confidence-building, supply-chain monitoring, early detection, attribution, and DNA synthesis screening to improve BWC implementation.
  3. Relying on AI for verification brings political, legal, technical, and data-security challenges, so trusted data, transparent models, and broad international cooperation will be needed to make it work.

Putin Punks NATO

Diane Francis • 459 implied HN points • 14 Jun 21
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Security Policy
  1. NATO is struggling to handle Russia's actions since the Soviet Union collapsed. Putin's tactics have weakened many democratic nations and are aimed at rebuilding Russian influence.
  2. Ukraine and Georgia should receive more support from NATO to defend against Russian threats. Granting them closer ties could help strengthen their security and better counter Russian aggression.
  3. NATO needs to develop a stronger strategy to deal with Russia and its ambitions. This includes addressing issues like Russian energy projects that threaten European security and taking decisive action against Russia's expansionist goals.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 28.07.2025

steigan.no • 3 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Security Policy
  1. Iran is looking to strengthen its position and security through cooperation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). They aim to create a system that can protect them from foreign aggression.
  2. China is leading the market for critical minerals, controlling a large part of the supply chain. This dominance poses challenges for countries looking for alternative sources for their energy needs.
  3. There's a concerning decline in democracy in various regions, including Europe and Ukraine, fueled by authoritarian movements and legislation that restrict civil liberties.

Mediterranean Blues: Giulio Terzi on Italy, the E.U., and Political Extremism

The Octavian Report • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Security Policy
  1. Italian voters are turning against a class of professional politicians seen as corrupt or out of touch, which has boosted protest movements like the Five Star Movement and weakened leaders such as Renzi; current electoral rules make it hard for Five Star to govern, leaving center-right forces with an advantage.
  2. The euro is broadly accepted as the only viable path forward, but the currency needs stronger fiscal coordination, a European budget, and cleaner public finances — especially fixing Italy’s weak banks and tackling corruption — to be truly resilient.
  3. Russia is using hybrid and cyber tactics to challenge the West, so NATO must unite around defending liberal democratic values, upgrade its cyber and intelligence capabilities, and coordinate member responses more effectively.