The hottest Trade Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Central Asia

kamilkazani • 314 implied HN points • 21 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Modern borders of Central Asia do not align with historic regions like Khorasan
  2. Central Asia was a vital trade route connecting East and West Eurasia
  3. Cultural exchanges in Central Asia influenced by historical Silk Road connections

Is Donald Trump Losing His Mojo?

Slack Tide by Matt Labash • 210 implied HN points • 30 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. People are noticing small wins lately since big achievements are hard to come by. It shows that sometimes you have to celebrate the little things.
  2. Trump is being linked to tacos in a funny way due to his trade decisions. This light-hearted connection has sparked some positive feelings about him.
  3. Many feel weary of bad trade ideas, fearing more economic strain. People want to avoid paying higher prices for things because of poor decisions.

US now world's top LNG exporter, as Europe boycotts cheaper Russian gas

Geopolitical Economy Report • 398 implied HN points • 08 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. The USA is now the top exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) alongside Qatar.
  2. Europe has replaced Asia as the main market for US LNG due to boycotting cheaper Russian gas, causing energy prices in Europe to soar.
  3. Significant US LNG importers in Europe include France, Spain, Britain, the Netherlands, and Italy, resulting in economic chaos and geopolitical tensions.
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Top Links 564 Who, actually, works for the government? Trump and world trade. Leaving Illinois and the agony of Haiti.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. Only a small portion, about 2%, of the US workforce is employed by the federal government. It's interesting to see how few people actually work directly for the government.
  2. If half of the federal workers were fired, a big chunk of those remaining would be in military or security-related jobs. This shows how much of the federal workforce is tied to defense.
  3. The discussion about government jobs and employment raises important questions about efficiency and how the system is structured. It's worth thinking about what that means for America.

Top Links 572 Tariffs & toys. The Trump non-linearity. A Miami real estate mystery. Keeping the Panama Canal open.

Chartbook • 443 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. Tariffs can impact holiday shopping by raising prices on various goods. This might make things like toys more expensive for consumers.
  2. There are unique stories, like the mystery surrounding Miami's real estate market, that highlight interesting trends in the economy.
  3. Global issues, such as keeping the Panama Canal open, show how interconnected our world is and why these logistics matter for trade.

The UK’s trade after Brexit…

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 17 Feb 26
🌐 International Trade
  1. Tariffs and new paperwork between the UK and the EU sharply cut UK goods exports. Exports fell roughly 0.4% per month and about 40% cumulatively.
  2. Other countries redirected imports away from the UK, so EU total imports stayed stable while UK importers faced higher prices and lower supply and UK exporters were stranded.
  3. Even a large economy like the US can be bypassed, so broad US tariffs could similarly hurt American firms as trading partners find alternatives; services trade is much less affected by goods tariffs.

All growth isn't equal: Categorizing Africa's fastest-growing economies

Afridigest • 27 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
💼 Business Trade
  1. By 2026, eleven of the world’s fifteen fastest-growing economies are expected to be in Africa.
  2. That growth isn’t the same everywhere — some countries are booming from resources, others from policy changes or demographic trends.
  3. Saying many African economies are fast-growing makes a catchy headline, but it hides big differences in how sustainable and widely shared that growth really is.

Top Links 641 The UK's trade deficit with the US. Low-income growth in the USA. How electrification stalled. "M: son of the century" and "The new us".

Chartbook • 314 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trade
  1. The UK has a unique trade relationship where it imports more from the US than it exports, leading to a trade deficit. This is unusual for a developed country.
  2. Low-income growth in the USA is a significant issue, highlighting economic challenges faced by many. It's affecting overall prosperity and living standards.
  3. Electrification efforts have hit a roadblock, indicating that progress in energy transition is not happening as fast as needed. This could impact future sustainability initiatives.

Top Links 566 Power prices. How will migrants and smugglers respond to the Trump shock? Prisons of power and Keynes on fairy dust.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💼 Business Trade
  1. Cheap electricity is making US companies more competitive compared to businesses from other countries.
  2. There are interesting questions about how migrants and smugglers will react to recent changes in politics.
  3. Keynes' ideas are still being discussed today, especially regarding economic concepts like 'fairy dust.'

China's Consumption Is Not Nearly as Low as It Appears: CF40 Policy Brief

Pekingnology • 147 implied HN points • 03 Jul 25
💰 Finance Trade
  1. China's actual consumption levels are much higher than what many believe. When we look at how much is consumed, the gap between China and developed countries isn't as big as the spending numbers suggest.
  2. In many areas, like food and household items, China has either matched or exceeded consumption levels of developed nations. This shows that Chinese citizens are enjoying a similar standard of living in terms of basic needs.
  3. Even though there's room for improvement in quality and type of consumption, more attention should be given to boosting domestic demand. This can enhance living standards and create a balanced trade environment.

Globalism is, in fact, Regionalism?

Christopher’s Newsletter • 255 implied HN points • 16 May 23
💼 Business Trade
  1. Globalism is more regional than we may think, with the majority of revenue from international companies actually coming from within their own region.
  2. Software has accelerated the trend of regionalism, allowing companies to go global quickly and efficiently.
  3. Regionalism is a significant economic force, impacting everything from trade to supply chains, and is likely to continue growing in importance even amidst global challenges like Covid.

Biden Statement On Nippon Steel Does Not Preclude Merger

Japan Economy Watch • 79 implied HN points • 01 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. President Biden's statement opposing Nippon Steel's purchase of US Steel does not completely prevent the merger, as negotiations are ongoing.
  2. The Steelworkers Union and Nippon Steel are in arduous negotiations to reach an agreement that satisfies the union's conditions before the merger can proceed.
  3. If the Nippon Steel merger with US Steel fails, there are challenges for the union as there isn't another American company that can buy USS, potentially impacting union-management relations and financial stability.

Top Links 604 China's booming exports. A new gas pipeline and America's murder epidemic of 2020.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. China's exports are growing a lot because prices for things like solar panels are going down. More products are being sold even if they are cheaper.
  2. A new gas pipeline is being developed, which could affect energy supplies and markets. This could change how countries trade and use gas.
  3. The murder rate in America rose dramatically in 2020, which raised concerns about safety and crime rates in the country. This trend has led to discussions about social issues and law enforcement.

Top Links 622 Trump's big choices. President-Fed interactions. Lifting the wind siege & how reinsurance trimmed its wildfire exposure.

Chartbook • 314 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. High tariffs imposed by Donald Trump can be seen positively by some who believe it helps protect American jobs.
  2. Interactions between the President and the Federal Reserve are crucial for understanding economic policies.
  3. Reinsurance companies are finding ways to reduce their risks from wildfires, showing how the industry is adapting to climate challenges.

The End of Empires

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 4 implied HN points • 08 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Traditional US allies are striking independent deals with China, as seen in Canada’s new strategic partnership and tariff reductions.
  2. Past confrontations like tariffs and high‑profile arrests haven’t stopped rapprochement, showing countries often prioritize trade and economic benefit over political alignment.
  3. Those shifts weaken alliance cohesion and indicate that growing economic ties to China could challenge U.S. global leadership.

All hail the demise of Adobe-Figma

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
💼 Business Trade
  1. The economy is not as strong as it seemed, with job data showing a slowdown and rising long-term unemployment. This means we may be facing challenges ahead instead of stability.
  2. The failed acquisition of Figma by Adobe is seen as a positive outcome for Figma and its investors, allowing them to see a larger increase in value without being bought out.
  3. Increased competition in the market is beneficial for users and smaller companies, reminding us that antitrust actions can protect growing startups from larger corporations.

Economics Links, 2/15/2025

In My Tribe • 243 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trade
  1. The European Union may have created a big, slow government that doesn't serve its people well. Some believe smaller countries manage their affairs better.
  2. Importing goods doesn't always harm jobs; a trade deficit can actually mean a strong economy. More spending and demand can lead to more jobs, not fewer.
  3. Becoming successful on platforms like Substack is tough. It often takes a large existing following or writing about popular subjects to grow your audience.

Top Links 548 A productivity surge in the US oil industry. Taiwan's AI exports. The price of data and Joan Didion putting the boot in.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💼 Business Trade
  1. The US oil industry is experiencing a big boost in productivity, which is likely affecting the overall economy.
  2. Taiwan is making significant strides in AI exports, indicating growth in tech and innovation in the region.
  3. There are rising concerns about the value of data in today's world, reflecting how important and expensive information has become.

The invisible hand screws up your regression

Economic Forces • 19 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
💼 Business Trade
  1. Because prices link firms, workers, and markets, difference-in-differences estimates pick up relative changes across units (the slope) but miss common, economy-wide level shifts that get absorbed by fixed effects — the “missing intercept.”
  2. Treatment spillovers mean control groups are almost never untouched, so naively scaling a micro DiD coefficient up to an aggregate shock can be very misleading; the true aggregate effect could be much smaller or much larger than the naive calculation.
  3. To learn the aggregate or policy-relevant effect you need economic structure or extra identifying assumptions; techniques like synthetic DiD fix pre-trends but cannot recover common, market-wide shocks without a structural model.

Top Links 539 Peru's blueberry boom. El Salvador's $1 billion US-backed loan & the legacy of migrant jails.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
💰 Finance Trade
  1. Peru is seeing a big increase in blueberry production, which is good for its economy. Blueberries are becoming a popular export from the country.
  2. El Salvador has received a $1 billion loan from the US, which is aimed at improving economic conditions. This is part of a larger effort to support the country's development.
  3. There is ongoing discussion about the long-lasting effects of migrant jails. These facilities have complex legacies that affect many communities.

Top Links 547 America's huge trade deficit. Hedge funds bet against green. Bout & the Houthis & the grate (sic) cheese robbery.

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
💰 Finance Trade
  1. America's trade deficit widened significantly in September, which means the country is buying way more from other countries than it's selling.
  2. Hedge funds are making big bets against green investments, which suggests they believe these investments won't perform well in the future.
  3. There was a strange robbery involving 'grate cheese' and the Houthis, showing how unusual events can grab attention in the news.

Economics Links, 2/10/2025

In My Tribe • 227 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💼 Business Trade
  1. Phil Gramm and Larry Summers believe that tariffs harm economic growth and could lead to trade wars. They recommend against implementing broad tariffs.
  2. Aswath Damodaran discusses how the entry of DeepSeek could change the AI landscape, creating both low-cost alternatives and maintaining a premium market for AI.
  3. Magatte Wade argues that Africa's poverty is largely due to over-regulation and difficult business conditions, making it hard to trade and grow economically.

Weekly Wrap

Syncretica • 157 implied HN points • 21 Nov 23
💰 Finance Trade
  1. Phosphorus is a new concern due to lithium battery materials collapsing.
  2. Consider managing economic and financial entanglements with China.
  3. Energy modeling needs to focus on distribution and geopolitical shocks.

The Art of the Deal: Trump defies past paradigms to secure better terms for America

The Dossier • 232 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. Trump uses flexible and aggressive negotiating strategies, breaking past norms to get better deals for America. He believes in leveraging various tools like bluffing and urgency during negotiations.
  2. He does not shy away from using strong tactics, even against traditional allies, to ensure America gets a good deal. This includes imposing tariffs or making bold statements to create pressure.
  3. Trump's approach to foreign affairs is pragmatic and strategic, leaving his negotiating partners off-balance. He focuses on achieving the best outcome for the United States, regardless of previous political ideologies.

Trump Makes Nice with India

John’s Substack • 5 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. The proposed trade deal appears to have terms that could be disadvantageous for India given the limited public details.
  2. Trump's unpredictability creates a real risk that he could reverse course and treat India poorly again, adding political uncertainty.
  3. Closer economic ties will make India more dependent on the US and give the US greater leverage, which could be risky even though both countries want a strong economic and security partnership.

Indiana Johannes and Raiders of the Lost ANC PART II - Iran, China, Russia, SA, and USA Policy

Who is Robert Malone • 6 implied HN points • 28 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. South Africa’s ruling party has traded its moral posturing for geopolitical convenience by aligning with Iran, Russia, China, and Islamist groups, which is damaging trust with Western allies.
  2. China and Russia are expanding military and economic influence in Africa while South Africa’s navy and defense forces are underfunded and vulnerable to foreign involvement and potential privatization.
  3. The United States is shifting its Africa policy to prioritize security, trade, and limiting rival influence, using legal, trade, and legislative tools to pressure countries it sees as threats to national security, including South Africa.

Top Links 585 Mexico's laborious economy. VW exits Xinjiang. Bibles are booming. Joan Robinson on time & history.

Chartbook • 271 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💼 Business Trade
  1. Mexico works a lot, making it the second biggest economy in the OECD by total hours worked, surpassing countries like Germany.
  2. Volkswagen has decided to leave Xinjiang, reflecting changing business strategies in sensitive regions.
  3. There is a rising interest in Bibles, indicating a shift or demand in religious materials.

Top Links 611 Trump's threat to affordable cars. Why trust small business? The world's most important boy scouts & revisiting the Maginot line.

Chartbook • 243 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. Trump's tariffs will make affordable cars harder to find in the US. This is because the cost of making these cars will go up.
  2. Trusting small businesses is important for our economy. They often provide better service and creativity compared to larger corporations.
  3. Revisiting historical events, like the Maginot Line, can teach us valuable lessons. It's a reminder of how preparation and strategy matter in facing challenges.

NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings

Silver Bulletin • 210 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
🎾 Sports Trade
  1. Teams' future success in the NBA is heavily influenced by their current roster and ability to attract superstar talent. A team with young superstars has a better chance at winning more championships over time compared to one that has an aging roster.
  2. The current standings of a team may not reflect their long-term potential. Teams like the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns made big trades but now face challenges with roster depth and future draft assets, making it hard to build a championship-caliber team.
  3. It's crucial for teams to prioritize championship potential over just being competitive. Teams that are stuck in the middle, like the Sacramento Kings and Chicago Bulls, are less likely to achieve success because they lack pathways to acquire star players and improve their chances of winning titles.

Austerity, budgets and prices

Devlin’s Newsletter • 137 implied HN points • 11 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Prices are important in the context of budgets and interactions with preferences.
  2. Socialist states faced challenges with deficits, inflation, and the need for subsidies.
  3. Cooperation was needed among socialist states to trade, dismantle price controls, and manage production networks.

Tariffs Do Not Work

Points And Figures • 506 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade
  1. Tariffs do not work as intended, often leading to higher prices for consumers and businesses.
  2. Repealing all tariffs on foreign goods and shifting to a consumption tax system could make imports cheaper and boost competitiveness of US products.
  3. Using a consumption tax system could lower prices for American consumers and create a more competitive market without the need for tariffs.

Video: Weakest Real Yen In Half Century Reflects Deterioration of Japan’s Competitiveness

Japan Economy Watch • 279 implied HN points • 14 Nov 22
💰 Finance Trade
  1. In the short term, Tokyo has limited options to address yen's weakness primarily due to the gap between American and Japanese interest rates.
  2. The weak yen reflects not just monetary policy differences but also a significant decline in Japan's real competitiveness over the years.
  3. To improve the situation, Japan needs to focus on reforms that enhance the country's underlying efficiency, making Japanese firms competitive in the global market once again.

On Environment, Chinese companies may be the model student

Beijing Channel • 7 implied HN points • 05 Jan 26
🌐 International Trade
  1. Chinese companies operating abroad often bring advanced environmental practices and technologies, and in many projects they meet or exceed local and international standards while restoring damaged land.
  2. Their investments frequently deliver local benefits like steady jobs, infrastructure upgrades, and technical training, helping communities remain livable and prosperous.
  3. Despite these outcomes, Western media and political interests commonly portray these firms as environmentally or socially reckless, amplifying routine problems into broader accusations driven by geopolitics and competition.

The China Shock 2.0 that isn’t

Beijing Channel • 9 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
🌐 International Trade
  1. Rising Chinese export value often reflects moving up the value chain and more domestic value added, so higher export numbers don’t just mean cheap goods flooding markets.
  2. Many developing countries import parts and equipment from China that let them export more; gross import figures alone don’t show whether those flows harm or help local economies.
  3. Rather than being passive victims, many developing countries actively manage ties with China—deepening trade, negotiating deals, and protecting specific sectors—so claims of a broad, systematic shock need careful, sector-level, value-added evidence.

Op-Ed: New China tariffs and USPS disruptions threaten Temu and Shein’s US growth

The PhilaVerse • 123 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💼 Business Trade
  1. New tariffs from China and USPS delivery issues may hurt Temu and Shein's low pricing options in the US.
  2. If shipping costs go up, these companies might have to raise prices or take a hit on their profits.
  3. Both companies are already facing scrutiny over their practices, so new regulations could make it even harder for them in the competitive market.

Did China Destroy Globalization?

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 22 Oct 22
🌍 World Politics Trade
  1. Globalization has not been destroyed, but governments in the US and Europe are facing challenges in pursuing new trade agreements due to protectionism.
  2. Blaming China for rising protectionism overlooks the main issues, such as technological advancements and the shift towards services, leading to a decline in manufacturing jobs.
  3. Importance lies in addressing the root causes of worker distress, like job loss and wage suppression, with adjustments and mechanisms to alleviate these challenges.