Syncretica

Syncretica focuses on the intersections of investing, technology, global energy markets, and geopolitical strategies, with an emphasis on China's role in these spheres. It covers energy transitions, market impacts of renewable vs. fossil fuels, effects of sanctions, and international trade relations, along with suggestions for policy and corporate strategy adjustments.

Investing Technology Global Energy Markets Geopolitical Strategies Renewable Energy Fossil Fuels International Trade Economic Policy Corporate Strategy Sanctions and Trade Relations

The hottest Substack posts of Syncretica

And their main takeaways

Chinese Hydropower - Large and Underappreciated

648 implied HN points • 06 Nov 23
💰 Finance Energy Forecasting Economics
  1. China has the largest hydropower sector globally, with a significant impact on power generation worldwide.
  2. Hydropower output is heavily influenced by weather conditions, with recent rainfall improvements expected to boost Chinese hydropower production.
  3. The strong growth in Chinese hydropower output is likely to lead to a decrease in fossil fuel imports and a reduction in thermal power generation.

Weekly Wrap

373 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
💼 Business Semiconductors Energy Commodities Inflation
  1. China's overproduction impacting US semiconductor market
  2. China's surplus of batteries and semiconductors leading to dumping solar products globally
  3. China's improving hydro situation likely to impact coal imports and emissions

4 Nov Weekly Wrap

334 implied HN points • 04 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics China Australia Middle East
  1. China's growth model faces challenges with overproduction and protectionism.
  2. Support for climate action strong, but transmission infrastructure remains a concern.
  3. Oil markets affected by China's stockpiling limits and weak imports.
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The Solar Buildout

314 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
🔬 Science Solar energy Renewables Energy Policy
  1. Building solar power in regions with high sun hours is more economical and efficient.
  2. Solar power can be strategically placed based on demand, like in coastal regions with high air conditioning demand.
  3. Transitioning to solar power impacts traditional energy sources like gas and coal, potentially leading to energy independence.

Weekly Wrap

157 implied HN points • 21 Nov 23
💰 Finance Energy Economics Geopolitics Investment Trade
  1. Phosphorus is a new concern due to lithium battery materials collapsing.
  2. Consider managing economic and financial entanglements with China.
  3. Energy modeling needs to focus on distribution and geopolitical shocks.

Coking Coal: Its Over

294 implied HN points • 14 May 23
💰 Finance Commodities Markets Investing Energy
  1. Predicted drop in coking coal prices due to Mongolia's coal imports displacing seaborne market imports.
  2. Issues with volume response from Australian, Canadian, and US coal producers to record high prices.
  3. Significant increase in Mongolian coking coal exports impacting market prices negatively.

Oil Market Disruption for Hipsters

432 implied HN points • 05 Jul 22
  1. An oil refinery has three primary inputs: heavy oils, lighter oils, and natural gas
  2. Shortages of ingredients like heavy oil and gas can disrupt the oil market
  3. Geopolitical factors can impact the oil market, leading to communication issues and strange decisions

China is Exporting Deflation (Again)

373 implied HN points • 27 Jun 22
  1. China is exporting deflation through lower input costs like steel, plastics, and chemicals.
  2. China's surplus of steel, plastics, and other products due to lower costs will impact global prices.
  3. Lowering costs and exporting the surplus can affect global inflation dynamics and geopolitical relations.

Coking Coal

294 implied HN points • 18 Jul 22
  1. China's self-inflicted coking coal shortage is over.
  2. Australia's mining lobby wants more customers even if they may not return.
  3. Australian politics may be distracted by empty offers from China, losing focus on the national interest.

A Letter to Jeff Bezos

353 implied HN points • 26 Apr 22
  1. The writer believes Elon Musk may not be the best person to run a platform like Twitter due to his past actions and cultural issues at Tesla.
  2. Suggestions for Twitter improvement include allowing tweets to be shown only to verified humans, better blocking and filtering tools, and implementing a reputation system for user engagement.
  3. Utilizing Amazon's large user base to improve Twitter moderation and design could create incremental returns and potentially benefit both Amazon and Washington Post.

A Reply to Zoltan Pozsar

373 implied HN points • 09 Mar 22
  1. Russian commodities are more expensive due to sanctions-driven supply shock
  2. Academic literature lacks modeling network flow in international oil and gas
  3. Transitioning from fossil fuels to alternative energy can reduce exposure to shocks

Meme Commodities

255 implied HN points • 05 Jul 22
  1. Thematic investing can lead to success but also volatility in commodities
  2. Commodities like copper have complex demand factors beyond just future projections
  3. Factors like industrial capex and consumer scrap recycling impact copper prices more than just EV sales

The Woeful State of US Policy on Inflation Compared to China

235 implied HN points • 16 Jun 22
  1. US policy on inflation lacks effective measures to address shortages and energy demand
  2. China has successfully managed energy resources, leading to stable power output and prices
  3. China's approach to energy and decarbonization presents advantages in trade surplus and competitiveness

The Sanctions Evasion Begins

196 implied HN points • 15 Mar 22
  1. Sanctions on Russia are not very effective for easily transportable items like energy and metals.
  2. India, China, and Saudi Arabia may not strictly comply with sanctions on major commodity inputs.
  3. The US and EU should focus on transitioning to cleaner energy sources to reduce dependence on fossil fuel exports.

A Trainspotters Guide to Running Sanctions in Eurasia

196 implied HN points • 04 Mar 22
  1. Russia's ability to export is impacted by rail infrastructure and connections to places like China.
  2. China's role in supporting Russian trade amid sanctions is crucial and will be a key indicator for global markets.
  3. Monitoring rail freight, changes in infrastructure, and China's import patterns can reveal a lot about the impact of sanctions and global relations.

Who's Gonna Take the Weight?

176 implied HN points • 04 Apr 22
  1. Logistics challenges in commodities networks can lead to short-term jams in moving goods.
  2. Changes in lending to commodity trading houses impact the global economy's working capital requirements.
  3. Invest in electrification, battery materials, nuclear, and similar solutions to navigate the current market challenges.

Joule Paper is Out

157 implied HN points • 22 Apr 22
  1. China plans to reduce coal imports by sea and increase renewable energy generation
  2. The paper discusses the impact of sanctions on coal prices in the market
  3. The author explains their investment choices and commitment to climate change action

European Gas Demand Response

176 implied HN points • 07 Mar 22
  1. IEA estimates demand response, LNG imports, and renewable energy can help Europe manage if gas supply from Russia is cut off.
  2. Potential strategies to reduce gas consumption include delayed nuclear closures, new import sources, renewable energy deployment, and heat pump installation.
  3. Leveraging heat pumps, geothermal district heating, and energy-efficient measures can contribute to cutting gas demand in Europe and reducing dependence on Russian gas.

Cancel All Australia's LNG Off takes to China

176 implied HN points • 02 Mar 22
  1. Europe faces gas shortage due to Russia, needing quick solutions like coal to cover
  2. Australia's LNG exports could assist Europe but have minor impact on China's gas supply
  3. Consideration to cancel Australia's LNG to China may influence global conflicts and energy dynamics

Marking to Market

137 implied HN points • 17 May 22
  1. China's coking coal imports are drastically decreasing.
  2. US and Canadian coal imports are slowing down.
  3. Thermal imports seem weak, but prices may stay high due to demand from gas to coal substitution.

European Gas and Russia

137 implied HN points • 25 Feb 22
  1. European energy market intricacies are now closely tied to global economy and inflation
  2. European countries, particularly Eastern Europe, are facing challenges with Russian gas dependency
  3. Exploring alternative energy sources like wind, solar, and ground source heat pumps could help alleviate issues with gas dependency and high prices in Europe

Rectification Campaign to Energy Crunch

157 implied HN points • 07 Oct 21
  1. Global energy markets are closely linked through fossil fuels.
  2. European gas demand varies with renewables and weather, requiring more storage and alternative energy sources.
  3. Chinese provincial corruption crackdowns can have significant impacts on global energy markets.

Wealth and Emissions

137 implied HN points • 09 Nov 21
  1. The argument that most emissions come from the global 1% or 10% calls for not victimizing countries like India and China.
  2. Transitioning to renewable technologies in key sectors can significantly lower emissions without major economic impacts.
  3. Governments need to focus on pressuring coal heavy grids to reduce emissions and prioritize practical measures over unworkable discussions like carbon reparations.

Oil Demand: How Quickly Can an Ice Cube Melt?

78 implied HN points • 08 Feb 22
  1. Earnings season shows energy sector's remarkable turnaround with oil and gas prices up.
  2. Norway's transition to EVs has not significantly impacted liquid fuel demand yet.
  3. Acceleration in EV adoption may lead to a faster decline in oil demand, impacting oil companies.

Invisible China - A Review

137 implied HN points • 08 Apr 21
  1. The book 'Invisible China' highlights challenges in China's labor markets like an aging population and urban-rural opportunity gaps.
  2. China needs to invest in education and address issues like malnourishment to sustain future growth.
  3. Avoiding significant structural reforms, China may continue with short-term measures to maintain social stability.

Xinjiang and Polysilicon

117 implied HN points • 16 Jun 21
  1. Xinjiang's competitive advantage in polysilicon is due to muscular industrial policy and cheap electricity.
  2. The production of polysilicon in Xinjiang relies on coal, leading to high emissions intensity.
  3. US and Europe could move towards self-sufficiency in polysilicon to avoid emissions and labor rights issues.

Election Season

78 implied HN points • 21 Nov 21
  1. Individuality is not as important in politics, as family members become public targets.
  2. Be prepared to defend yourself and your family against media attacks in the political environment.
  3. Use your power to set boundaries with the media and enforce good norms in politics.

How Long Will the Energy Crunch Last?

78 implied HN points • 08 Oct 21
  1. China is ramping up coal production to address the energy crunch
  2. China's power demand is decreasing, helping to alleviate the energy crisis
  3. The energy crunch episode is expected to be short lived based on current market actions

What is Happening in Coal

98 implied HN points • 23 Apr 21
  1. China has abundant coal resources
  2. China mainly uses coal for construction and industry
  3. China's investments in infrastructure allow them to rely less on coal imports

Is China Big? Does That Matter?

117 implied HN points • 05 Jan 21
  1. China being big does not necessarily mean they can control everything in trade.
  2. Australia's trade with China is heavily based on commodities, which can be sold in other markets if needed.
  3. For certain products like coal, the market dynamics are different and may have a larger impact.

A Program of Work for ANU CIW

98 implied HN points • 17 Feb 21
  1. ANU CIW could focus on research related to key commodity export exposure and substitution dynamics in trade
  2. Exploring industrial organization of agricultural exports and capacity to substitute could be valuable
  3. Evaluating multilateral initiatives for economic security and studying China's changing demographics for long-term export outlooks are important areas of research

Historical Materialism and Technology

58 implied HN points • 26 Feb 21
  1. Xi Jinping's view of history focuses on 'multi-polarization,' 'globalization,' and 'peaceful development.'
  2. Trends like renewable energies could shift energy supply chains locally, impacting global trade.
  3. Changes in production costs and innovations challenge China's industrial model and global value chains.

The Party Legitimacy-Energy-Carbon Nexus

58 implied HN points • 25 Jan 21
  1. China's emissions are tightly linked to its politics and economic growth
  2. Heavy industry and manufacturing dominate China's emissions, requiring focus on decarbonization
  3. Discussion on China's carbon emissions should prioritize investment intensity and materials use

Investing, Tech, Dharma and Science

19 implied HN points • 30 Dec 20
  1. The newsletter covers a wide range of topics like investing, tech, dharma, and science.
  2. The author engages in research work that bridges the gap between financial services and academia.
  3. The author shares a list of diverse and interesting books they have read across various genres like economics, politics, anthropology, and espionage.

Eastern European Gas - The Baltics

0 implied HN points • 28 Feb 22
  1. Logistical challenges in Eastern Europe for transitioning off Russian gas
  2. Heating for homes and industries is a key factor in gas consumption
  3. Heat pumps present a viable option for reducing gas demand in European industry